Showing papers in "BMC Medicine in 2020"

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK.

Abstract: To mitigate and slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies, including the UK. We evaluate whether these measures might be sufficient to control the epidemic by estimating their impact on the reproduction number (R0, the average number of secondary cases generated per case). We asked a representative sample of UK adults about their contact patterns on the previous day. The questionnaire was conducted online via email recruitment and documents the age and location of contacts and a measure of their intimacy (whether physical contact was made or not). In addition, we asked about adherence to different physical distancing measures. The first surveys were sent on Tuesday, 24 March, 1 day after a “lockdown” was implemented across the UK. We compared measured contact patterns during the “lockdown” to patterns of social contact made during a non-epidemic period. By comparing these, we estimated the change in reproduction number as a consequence of the physical distancing measures imposed. We used a meta-analysis of published estimates to inform our estimates of the reproduction number before interventions were put in place. We found a 74% reduction in the average daily number of contacts observed per participant (from 10.8 to 2.8). This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from 2.6 prior to lockdown to 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37–0.89) after the lockdown, based on all types of contact and 0.37 (95% CI = 0.22–0.53) for physical (skin to skin) contacts only. The physical distancing measures adopted by the UK public have substantially reduced contact levels and will likely lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases in the coming weeks. However, this projected decline in incidence will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease, and hospitalisation, as well as further delays to these events being reported. Tracking behavioural change can give a more rapid assessment of the impact of physical distancing measures than routine epidemiological surveillance.

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, determining the resulting needs for healthcare resources (beds, staff, equipment) has become a key priority for many countries. Projecting future demand requires estimates of how long patients with COVID-19 need different levels of hospital care. We performed a systematic review of early evidence on length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 in hospital and in ICU. We subsequently developed a method to generate LoS distributions which combines summary statistics reported in multiple studies, accounting for differences in sample sizes. Applying this approach, we provide distributions for total hospital and ICU LoS from studies in China and elsewhere, for use by the community. We identified 52 studies, the majority from China (46/52). Median hospital LoS ranged from 4 to 53 days within China, and 4 to 21 days outside of China, across 45 studies. ICU LoS was reported by eight studies—four each within and outside China—with median values ranging from 6 to 12 and 4 to 19 days, respectively. Our summary distributions have a median hospital LoS of 14 (IQR 10–19) days for China, compared with 5 (IQR 3–9) days outside of China. For ICU, the summary distributions are more similar (median (IQR) of 8 (5–13) days for China and 7 (4–11) days outside of China). There was a visible difference by discharge status, with patients who were discharged alive having longer LoS than those who died during their admission, but no trend associated with study date. Patients with COVID-19 in China appeared to remain in hospital for longer than elsewhere. This may be explained by differences in criteria for admission and discharge between countries, and different timing within the pandemic. In the absence of local data, the combined summary LoS distributions provided here can be used to model bed demands for contingency planning and then updated, with the novel method presented here, as more studies with aggregated statistics emerge outside China.

Coronavirus: the spread of misinformation.

Abstract: There has been a global rise recently in the spread of misinformation that has plagued the scientific community and public. Disconnect between scientific consensus and members of the public on topics such as vaccine safety, the shape of the earth, or climate change has existed for a number of years. However, this has progressively worsened as society has become further divided in the political climate of today. In turn, it has created an optimal environment for antiscience groups to gain footing and propagate their false theories and information. The public health crisis emerging due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) is also now beginning to feel the effects of misinformation. We stand with our colleagues Calisher et al., who recently published a statement of solidarity to fight against COVID-19 and to promote scientific evidence and unity over misinformation and conjecture [1]. Just as the coronavirus itself, misinformation has spread far and wide, drowning out credible sources of information. Over the last couple of months, posts from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Center of Disease Control (CDC) have cumulatively only achieved several hundred thousand engagements, considerably eclipsed by hoax and conspiracy theory sites, which have amassed over 52 million. This serves to emphasise the popularity of unverified sources of information. Similarly, misinformation was widespread during the early years of the HIV epidemic. It too was plagued by conspiracy theories, rumours, and misinformation for many years, with the effects still visible in regions to this day. Many people continue to argue that HIV does not exist, or cause AIDS, and that its therapies are toxic to human health. All the arguments proposed by these deniers have been rebuked through a multitude of scientific publications and debate. Yet, they continue to persist. The influence of these false arguments can be so infectious that it can influence governmental policy, which has the potential to be fatal. This was particularly highlighted by the Mbeki South African government’s denialism of HIV in the early 2000s and their infamous rejection of the evidence surrounding the efficacy of HIV medication. In turn, thousands of mothers were denied access to antiretroviral therapies. Instead, the government promoted the unsubstantiated use of herbal remedies including garlic, beetroot, and lemon juice for AIDS treatment [2], leading to unnecessary HIV transmission, especially to children from pregnant mothers. This costs more than 300,000 lives [3]. It is important that we learn from past mistakes, and the media has a large role to play in this. It seems in a bid to increase viewership, major media organisations are creating dramatic headlines but are instead inciting panic amongst the public. Whilst healthcare professionals are still learning about the virus, the media has already begun to speculate about the potential health impact that the virus can have, and by publishing the potential worst effects of the virus, it only serves to fuel panic amongst the general public. As COVID-19 turns into full-fledged public health crisis, multiple theories regarding the virus’ origin have taken hold on the internet, all with a common theme: the virus was artificially created in a lab by a rogue government with an agenda. This misinformation originated from social media accounts and websites with no credible evidence to support their claims. These posts have amassed over 20 million engagements, rising each day, and the theories continue to gain traction and following on the internet, despite scientists from multiple nations

Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies.

Abstract: More than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Ile-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing. We estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints. As France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.

New insights into genetic susceptibility of COVID-19: an ACE2 and TMPRSS2 polymorphism analysis.

Abstract: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has now been confirmed worldwide. Yet, COVID-19 is strangely and tragically selective. Morbidity and mortality due to COVID19 rise dramatically with age and co-existing health conditions, including cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Human genetic factors may contribute to the extremely high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to the relentlessly progressive disease observed in a small but significant proportion of infected individuals, but these factors are largely unknown. In this study, we investigated genetic susceptibility to COVID-19 by examining DNA polymorphisms in ACE2 and TMPRSS2 (two key host factors of SARS-CoV-2) from ~ 81,000 human genomes. We found unique genetic susceptibility across different populations in ACE2 and TMPRSS2. Specifically, ACE2 polymorphisms were found to be associated with cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions by altering the angiotensinogen-ACE2 interactions, such as p.Arg514Gly in the African/African-American population. Unique but prevalent polymorphisms (including p.Val160Met (rs12329760), an expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL)) in TMPRSS2, offer potential explanations for differential genetic susceptibility to COVID-19 as well as for risk factors, including those with cancer and the high-risk group of male patients. We further discussed that polymorphisms in ACE2 or TMPRSS2 could guide effective treatments (i.e., hydroxychloroquine and camostat) for COVID-19. This study suggested that ACE2 or TMPRSS2 DNA polymorphisms were likely associated with genetic susceptibility of COVID-19, which calls for a human genetics initiative for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ethnic and socioeconomic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection: prospective cohort study using UK Biobank.

Abstract: Understanding of the role of ethnicity and socioeconomic position in the risk of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection is limited. We investigated this in the UK Biobank study. The UK Biobank study recruited 40–70-year-olds in 2006–2010 from the general population, collecting information about self-defined ethnicity and socioeconomic variables (including area-level socioeconomic deprivation and educational attainment). SARS-CoV-2 test results from Public Health England were linked to baseline UK Biobank data. Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to assess risk ratios (RRs) between the exposures and dichotomous variables for being tested, having a positive test and testing positive in hospital. We also investigated whether ethnicity and socioeconomic position were associated with having a positive test amongst those tested. We adjusted for covariates including age, sex, social variables (including healthcare work and household size), behavioural risk factors and baseline health. Amongst 392,116 participants in England, 2658 had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 948 tested positive (726 in hospital) between 16 March and 3 May 2020. Black and south Asian groups were more likely to test positive (RR 3.35 (95% CI 2.48–4.53) and RR 2.42 (95% CI 1.75–3.36) respectively), with Pakistani ethnicity at highest risk within the south Asian group (RR 3.24 (95% CI 1.73–6.07)). These ethnic groups were more likely to be hospital cases compared to the white British. Adjustment for baseline health and behavioural risk factors led to little change, with only modest attenuation when accounting for socioeconomic variables. Socioeconomic deprivation and having no qualifications were consistently associated with a higher risk of confirmed infection (RR 2.19 for most deprived quartile vs least (95% CI 1.80–2.66) and RR 2.00 for no qualifications vs degree (95% CI 1.66–2.42)). Some minority ethnic groups have a higher risk of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK Biobank study, which was not accounted for by differences in socioeconomic conditions, baseline self-reported health or behavioural risk factors. An urgent response to addressing these elevated risks is required.

Medical education during pandemics: a UK perspective.

Abstract: Introduction As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic becomes widespread, its impact on society is becoming more pervasive and is now threatening medical education. Numerous medical schools have suspended all clinical placements and classes with the hopes of mitigating viral transmission. The timing of this disruption is set to have profound consequences as universities, particularly in the UK, are now conducting assessments remotely, and some are considering deferring students due to the inability to carry out teaching and clinical placements. Here, we discuss the different modes of teaching that may be offered during this time. Over the last several years, some medical schools have shifted from traditional forms of ‘in-person’ lecturebased teaching to other modes, employing online, distance or electronic learning [1]. Whilst not ideal, teleteaching or the delivery of live teaching via online platforms may prove to be an apt solution to the cancellations that are currently taking place. Rather than leaving students to their own devices, online teaching guides student learning and places content within the overall context of their curriculum. Currently, universities utilise lecture capture technology. However, this is limited in its interactivity and ability for students to ask questions. Additionally, outside of the current crisis many are worried that it may lead to empty lecture halls and reduced participation, and often, the missed lectures are not caught up. Perhaps it is now time for universities to consider utilising other modes of facilitating learning such as live teleteaching video conference platforms whereby student engagement and interactivity can be preserved, whilst observing appropriate COVID-19 social distancing measures.

Drug-resistant enteric fever worldwide, 1990 to 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an increasing threat to global health. There are > 14 million cases of enteric fever every year and > 135,000 deaths. The disease is primarily controlled by antimicrobial treatment, but this is becoming increasingly difficult due to AMR. Our objectives were to assess the prevalence and geographic distribution of AMR in Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections globally, to evaluate the extent of the problem, and to facilitate the creation of geospatial maps of AMR prevalence to help targeted public health intervention. We performed a systematic review of the literature by searching seven databases for studies published between 1990 and 2018. We recategorised isolates to allow the analysis of fluoroquinolone resistance trends over the study period. The prevalence of multidrug resistance (MDR) and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) in individual studies was illustrated by forest plots, and a random effects meta-analysis was performed, stratified by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) region and 5-year time period. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistics. We present a descriptive analysis of ceftriaxone and azithromycin resistance. We identified 4557 articles, of which 384, comprising 124,347 isolates (94,616 S. Typhi and 29,731 S. Paratyphi A) met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. The majority (276/384; 72%) of studies were from South Asia; 40 (10%) articles were identified from Sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of MDR S. Typhi in South Asia, which declined between 1990 and 2018, and MDR S. Paratyphi A, which remained at low levels, resistance trends worsened for all antimicrobials in all regions. We identified several data gaps in Africa and the Middle East. Incomplete reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) and lack of quality assurance were identified. Drug-resistant enteric fever is widespread in low- and middle-income countries, and the situation is worsening. It is essential that public health and clinical measures, which include improvements in water quality and sanitation, the deployment of S. Typhi vaccination, and an informed choice of treatment are implemented. However, there is no licenced vaccine for S. Paratyphi A. The standardised reporting of AST data and rollout of external quality control assessment are urgently needed to facilitate evidence-based policy and practice. PROSPERO CRD42018029432.

Mechanisms linking childhood trauma exposure and psychopathology: a transdiagnostic model of risk and resilience

Abstract: Transdiagnostic processes confer risk for multiple types of psychopathology and explain the co-occurrence of different disorders. For this reason, transdiagnostic processes provide ideal targets for early intervention and treatment. Childhood trauma exposure is associated with elevated risk for virtually all commonly occurring forms of psychopathology. We articulate a transdiagnostic model of the developmental mechanisms that explain the strong links between childhood trauma and psychopathology as well as protective factors that promote resilience against multiple forms of psychopathology. We present a model of transdiagnostic mechanisms spanning three broad domains: social information processing, emotional processing, and accelerated biological aging. Changes in social information processing that prioritize threat-related information—such as heightened perceptual sensitivity to threat, misclassification of negative and neutral emotions as anger, and attention biases towards threat-related cues—have been consistently observed in children who have experienced trauma. Patterns of emotional processing common in children exposed to trauma include elevated emotional reactivity to threat-related stimuli, low emotional awareness, and difficulties with emotional learning and emotion regulation. More recently, a pattern of accelerated aging across multiple biological metrics, including pubertal development and cellular aging, has been found in trauma-exposed children. Although these changes in social information processing, emotional responding, and the pace of biological aging reflect developmental adaptations that may promote safety and provide other benefits for children raised in dangerous environments, they have been consistently associated with the emergence of multiple forms of internalizing and externalizing psychopathology and explain the link between childhood trauma exposure and transdiagnostic psychopathology. Children with higher levels of social support, particularly from caregivers, are less likely to develop psychopathology following trauma exposure. Caregiver buffering of threat-related processing may be one mechanism explaining this protective effect. Childhood trauma exposure is a powerful transdiagnostic risk factor associated with elevated risk for multiple forms of psychopathology across development. Changes in threat-related social and emotional processing and accelerated biological aging serve as transdiagnostic mechanisms linking childhood trauma with psychopathology. These transdiagnostic mechanisms represent critical targets for early interventions aimed at preventing the emergence of psychopathology in children who have experienced trauma.

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and cancer prognosis: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies

Abstract: Although neutrophils have been linked to the progression of cancer, uncertainty exists around their association with cancer outcomes, depending on the site, outcome and treatments considered. We aimed to evaluate the strength and validity of evidence on the association between either the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or tumour-associated neutrophils (TAN) and cancer prognosis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to 29 May 2020 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies on neutrophil counts (here NLR or TAN) and specific cancer outcomes related to disease progression or survival. The available evidence was graded as strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak or uncertain through the application of pre-set GRADE criteria. A total of 204 meta-analyses from 86 studies investigating the association between either NLR or TAN and cancer outcomes met the criteria for inclusion. All but one meta-analyses found a hazard ratio (HR) which increased risk (HR > 1). We did not find sufficient meta-analyses to evaluate TAN and cancer outcomes (N = 9). When assessed for magnitude of effect, significance and bias related to heterogeneity and small study effects, 18 (9%) associations between NLR and outcomes in composite cancer endpoints (combined analysis), cancers treated with immunotherapy and some site specific cancers (urinary, nasopharyngeal, gastric, breast, endometrial, soft tissue sarcoma and hepatocellular cancers) were supported by strong evidence. In total, 60 (29%) meta-analyses presented strong or highly suggestive evidence. Although the NLR and TAN hold clinical promise in their association with poor cancer prognosis, further research is required to provide robust evidence, assess causality and test clinical utility. PROSPERO CRD42017069131 .

Q&A: The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID-19

Abstract: Repurposing of the existing medications has become the mainstream focus of anti-COVID-19 drug discovery as it offers rapid and cost-effective solutions for therapeutic development However, there is still a great deal to enhance efficacy of repurposing therapeutic options through combination therapy, in which promising drugs with varying mechanisms of action are administered together Nonetheless, our ability to identify and validate effective combinations is limited due to the huge number of possible drug pairs Yet, there is no available resource which can systematically guide to identify or choose the effective individual drugs or best possible synergistic drug combinations for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection To address this resource gap, we developed a web-based platform that displays the network-based mechanism of action of drug combinations, thus simultaneously giving a visual of the cellular interactome involved in the mode of action of the chosen drugs The platform allows the freedom to choose two or more drug combinations and provides the options to investigate network-based efficacy of drug combinations and understand the similarity score, primary indications, and contraindications of using these drugs combinations In a nutshell, the platform (accessible via: http://vafaeelab com/COVID19_repositioning html) is of the first of its type which provides a systematic approach for pre-clinical investigation of combination therapy for treating COVID-19 on the fingertips of the clinicians or researchers

Are immune-related adverse events associated with the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in patients with cancer? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract: A number of studies have reported an association between the occurrence of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and clinical efficacy in patients undergoing treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), but the results remain controversial. Under the guidance of a predefined protocol and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses statement, this meta-analysis included cohort studies investigating the association of irAEs and efficacy of ICIs in patients with cancer. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and the secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). Subgroup analyses involving the cancer type, class of ICIs, combination therapy, sample size, model, landmark analysis, and approach used to extract the data were performed. Specific analyses of the type and grade of irAEs were also performed. This meta-analysis included 30 studies including 4971 individuals. Patients with cancer who developed irAEs experienced both an OS benefit and a PFS benefit from ICI therapy compared to patients who did not develop irAEs (OS: hazard ratio (HR), 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–0.65; p < 0.001; PFS: HR, 0.52, 95% CI, 0.44–0.61, p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses of the study quality characteristics and cancer types recapitulated these findings. Specific analyses of endocrine irAEs (OS: HR, 0.52, 95% CI, 0.44–0.62, p < 0.001), dermatological irAEs (OS: HR, 0.45, 95% CI, 0.35–0.59, p < 0.001), and low-grade irAEs (OS: HR, 0.57, 95% CI, 0.43–0.75; p < 0.001) yielded similar results. The association between irAE development and a favorable benefit on survival was significant in patients with cancer who were undergoing treatment with programmed cell death-1 inhibitors (OS: HR, 0.51, 95% CI, 0.42–0.62; p < 0.001), but not cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 inhibitors (OS: HR, 0.89, 95% CI, 0.49–1.61; p = 0.706). Additionally, the association was significant in patients with cancer who were treated with ICIs as a monotherapy (OS: HR, 0.53, 95% CI, 0.43–0.65; p < 0.001), but not as a combination therapy (OS: HR, 0.62, 95% CI, 0.36–1.05; p = 0.073). The occurrence of irAEs was significantly associated with a better ICI efficacy in patients with cancer, particularly endocrine, dermatological, and low-grade irAEs. Further large-scale prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings. PROSPERO CRD42019129310.

Lifestyle factors and risk of multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases: a multinational cohort study.

Abstract: Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections.

Abstract: Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures. Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever ≥ 37.5 °C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment. Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6 July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of 7 June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI 5.6–24%) (Belgium). We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country’s population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.

Adolescent polycystic ovary syndrome according to the international evidence-based guideline

Abstract: Diagnosing polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) during adolescence is challenging because features of normal pubertal development overlap with adult diagnostic criteria. The international evidence-based PCOS Guideline aimed to promote accurate and timely diagnosis, to optimise consistent care, and to improve health outcomes for adolescents and women with PCOS. International healthcare professionals, evidence synthesis teams and consumers informed the priorities, reviewed published data and synthesised the recommendations for the Guideline. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework was applied to appraise the evidence quality and the feasibility, acceptability, cost, implementation and strength of the recommendations. This paper focuses on the specific adolescent PCOS Guideline recommendations. Specific criteria to improve diagnostic accuracy and avoid over diagnosis include: (1) irregular menstrual cycles defined according to years post-menarche; > 90 days for any one cycle (> 1 year post-menarche), cycles 45 days (> 1 to 35 days (> 3 years post-menarche) and primary amenorrhea by age 15 or > 3 years post-thelarche. Irregular menstrual cycles (< 1 year post-menarche) represent normal pubertal transition. (2) Hyperandrogenism defined as hirsutism, severe acne and/or biochemical hyperandrogenaemia confirmed using validated high-quality assays. (3) Pelvic ultrasound not recommended for diagnosis of PCOS within 8 years post menarche. (4) Anti-Mullerian hormone levels not recommended for PCOS diagnosis; and (5) exclusion of other disorders that mimic PCOS. For adolescents who have features of PCOS but do not meet diagnostic criteria an ‘at risk’ label can be considered with appropriate symptomatic treatment and regular re-evaluations. Menstrual cycle re-evaluation can occur over 3 years post menarche and where only menstrual irregularity or hyperandrogenism are present initially, evaluation with ultrasound can occur after 8 years post menarche. Screening for anxiety and depression is required and assessment of eating disorders warrants consideration. Available data endorse the benefits of healthy lifestyle interventions to prevent excess weight gain and should be recommended. For symptom management, the combined oral contraceptive pill and/or metformin may be beneficial. Extensive international engagement accompanied by rigorous processes honed both diagnostic criteria and treatment recommendations for PCOS during adolescence.

At what times during infection is SARS-CoV-2 detectable and no longer detectable using RT-PCR-based tests? A systematic review of individual participant data

Abstract: Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are pivotal to detecting current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and duration of detectable virus indicating potential for infectivity. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) systematic review of longitudinal studies of RT-PCR test results in symptomatic SARS-CoV-2. We searched PubMed, LitCOVID, medRxiv, and COVID-19 Living Evidence databases. We assessed risk of bias using a QUADAS-2 adaptation. Outcomes were the percentage of positive test results by time and the duration of detectable virus, by anatomical sampling sites. Of 5078 studies screened, we included 32 studies with 1023 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants and 1619 test results, from − 6 to 66 days post-symptom onset and hospitalisation. The highest percentage virus detection was from nasopharyngeal sampling between 0 and 4 days post-symptom onset at 89% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83 to 93) dropping to 54% (95% CI 47 to 61) after 10 to 14 days. On average, duration of detectable virus was longer with lower respiratory tract (LRT) sampling than upper respiratory tract (URT). Duration of faecal and respiratory tract virus detection varied greatly within individual participants. In some participants, virus was still detectable at 46 days post-symptom onset. RT-PCR misses detection of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; early sampling minimises false negative diagnoses. Beyond 10 days post-symptom onset, lower RT or faecal testing may be preferred sampling sites. The included studies are open to substantial risk of bias, so the positivity rates are probably overestimated.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

Abstract: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64–2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea’s successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.

Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract: To calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients. We analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators. NHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated. Unless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surgery to take place.

Supporting social prescribing in primary care by linking people to local assets: a realist review

Abstract: Social prescribing is a way of addressing the ‘non-medical’ needs (e.g. loneliness, debt, housing problems) that can affect people’s health and well-being. Connector schemes (e.g. delivered by care navigators or link workers) have become a key component to social prescribing’s delivery. Those in this role support patients by either (a) signposting them to relevant local assets (e.g. groups, organisations, charities, activities, events) or (b) taking time to assist them in identifying and prioritising their ‘non-medical’ needs and connecting them to relevant local assets. To understand how such connector schemes work, for whom, why and in what circumstances, we conducted a realist review. A search of electronic databases was supplemented with Google alerts and reference checking to locate grey literature. In addition, we sent a Freedom of Information request to all Clinical Commissioning Groups in England to identify any further evaluations of social prescribing connector schemes. Included studies were from the UK and focused on connector schemes for adult patients (18+ years) related to primary care. Our searches resulted in 118 included documents, from which data were extracted to produce context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs). These CMOCs underpinned our emerging programme theory that centred on the essential role of ‘buy-in’ and connections. This was refined further by turning to existing theories on (a) social capital and (b) patient activation. Our realist review highlights how connector roles, especially link workers, represent a vehicle for accruing social capital (e.g. trust, sense of belonging, practical support). We propose that this then gives patients the confidence, motivation, connections, knowledge and skills to manage their own well-being, thereby reducing their reliance on GPs. We also emphasise within the programme theory situations that could result in unintended consequences (e.g. increased demand on GPs).

An ecological study of socioeconomic predictors in detection of COVID-19 cases across neighborhoods in New York City

Abstract: New York City was the first major urban center of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. Cases are clustered in the city, with certain neighborhoods experiencing more cases than others. We investigate whether potential socioeconomic factors can explain between-neighborhood variation in the COVID-19 test positivity rate. Data were collected from 177 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) in New York City (99.9% of the population). We fit multiple Bayesian Besag-York-Mollie (BYM) mixed models using positive COVID-19 tests as the outcome, a set of 11 representative demographic, economic, and health-care associated ZCTA-level parameters as potential predictors, and the total number of COVID-19 tests as the exposure. The BYM model includes both spatial and nonspatial random effects to account for clustering and overdispersion. Multiple regression approaches indicated a consistent, statistically significant association between detected COVID-19 cases and dependent children (under 18 years old), population density, median household income, and race. In the final model, we found that an increase of only 5% in young population is associated with a 2.3% increase in COVID-19 positivity rate (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4 to 4.2%, p=0.021). An increase of 10,000 people per km2 is associated with a 2.4% (95% CI 0.6 to 4.2%, p=0.011) increase in positivity rate. A decrease of $10,000 median household income is associated with a 1.6% (95% CI 0.7 to 2.4%, p<0.001) increase in COVID-19 positivity rate. With respect to race, a decrease of 10% in White population is associated with a 1.8% (95% CI 0.8 to 2.8%, p<0.001) increase in positivity rate, while an increase of 10% in Black population is associated with a 1.1% (95% CI 0.3 to 1.8%, p<0.001) increase in positivity rate. The percentage of Hispanic (p=0.718), Asian (p=0.966), or Other (p=0.588) populations were not statistically significant factors. Our findings indicate associations between neighborhoods with a large dependent youth population, densely populated, low-income, and predominantly black neighborhoods and COVID-19 test positivity rate. The study highlights the importance of public health management during and after the current COVID-19 pandemic. Further work is warranted to fully understand the mechanisms by which these factors may have affected the positivity rate, either in terms of the true number of cases or access to testing.

Epidemiological models are important tools for guiding COVID-19 interventions.

Abstract: Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for over three million reported cases worldwide, including more than 200,000 deaths (as of 1 May 2020). In the UK, mathematical models have been employed to inform policy responses, particularly by using model simulations to predict the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) [1, 2]. In this article, we discuss epidemiological modelling using a simple model as an example, and highlight an extended model by Davies et al. [1] that has been used to explore the effects of NPIs in the UK. The findings of the extended model were presented to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which is reporting to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). SAGE in turn presents scientific advice to UK government decision makers. We discuss the authors’ results about strategies for intervening to maintain intensive care unit (ICU) bed demand below the number of ICU beds in the UK.

The triglyceride glucose index is a simple and low-cost marker associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: a population-based study

Abstract: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is an inexpensive clinical surrogate marker for insulin resistance. However, the relationship between TyG index and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We evaluated the relationship between TyG index and CVD using a large-scale population dataset from the National Health Information Database (NHID). We performed a retrospective observational cohort study of 5,593,134 persons older than 40 years from 2009 to 2017 using the NHID. We divided the participants into TyG index quartiles. Outcome variables were stroke, myocardial infarction, and both. The incidence of outcomes was estimated for each TyG quartile over the total follow-up period. All outcomes were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis while controlling for baseline covariates. During 8.2 years of mean follow-up, stroke was diagnosed in 89,120 (1.59%), MI in 62,577 (1.12%), and both stroke and MI in 146,744 (2.62%) participants. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for patients in the highest TyG index quartile demonstrated that these patients were at higher risk for stroke (HR = 1.259; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.233–1.286), for MI (HR = 1.313; 95% CI 1.28–1.346), and for both (HR = 1.282; 95% CI 1.261–1.303) compared with participants in the lowest TyG index quartile. These effects were independent of age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. In our large population study, TyG index, a simple measure reflecting insulin resistance, was potentially useful in the early identification of individuals at high risk of experiencing a cardiovascular event.

Mental, behavioral and neurodevelopmental disorders in the ICD-11: an international perspective on key changes and controversies.

Abstract: An update of the chapter on Mental, Behavioral and Neurodevelopmental Disorders in the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) is of great interest around the world. The recent approval of the 11th Revision of the ICD (ICD-11) by the World Health Organization (WHO) raises broad questions about the status of nosology of mental disorders as a whole as well as more focused questions regarding changes to the diagnostic guidelines for specific conditions and the implications of these changes for practice and research. This Forum brings together a broad range of experts to reflect on key changes and controversies in the ICD-11 classification of mental disorders. Taken together, there is consensus that the WHO's focus on global applicability and clinical utility in developing the diagnostic guidelines for this chapter will maximize the likelihood that it will be adopted by mental health professionals and administrators. This focus is also expected to enhance the application of the guidelines in non-specialist settings and their usefulness for scaling up evidence-based interventions. The new mental disorders classification in ICD-11 and its accompanying diagnostic guidelines therefore represent an important, albeit iterative, advance for the field.

Anxiety and depression in children and adolescents with obesity: a nationwide study in Sweden

Abstract: Anxiety and depression are more common in children with obesity than in children of normal weight, but it is unclear whether this association is independent of other known risk factors. Interpretation of results from previous studies is hampered by methodological limitations, including self-reported assessment of anxiety, depression, and anthropometry. The aim of this study was to investigate whether obesity increases the risk of anxiety or depression independently of other risk factors in a large cohort of children and adolescents, using robust measures with regard to exposure and outcome. Children aged 6–17 years in the Swedish Childhood Obesity Treatment Register (BORIS, 2005–2015) were included (n = 12,507) and compared with a matched group (sex, year of birth, and area of residence) from the general population (n = 60,063). The main outcome was a diagnosis of anxiety or depression identified through ICD codes or dispensed prescribed medication within 3 years after the end of obesity treatment. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from Cox proportional models were adjusted for several known confounders. Obesity remained a significant risk factor for anxiety and depression in children and adolescents after adjusting for Nordic background, neuropsychiatric disorders, family history of anxiety/depression, and socioeconomic status. Girls in the obesity cohort had a 43% higher risk of anxiety and depression compared to girls in the general population (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31–1.57; p < 0.0001). The risk in boys with obesity was similar (adjusted HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.20–1.48; p < 0.0001). In sensitivity analyses, excluding subjects with neuropsychiatric disorders and a family history of anxiety/depression, the estimated risks in individuals with obesity were even higher compared with results from the main analyses (adjusted HR [95% CI]: girls = 1.56 [1.31–1.87], boys = 2.04 [1.64–2.54]). Results from this study support the hypothesis that obesity per se is associated with risk of both anxiety and depression in children and adolescents.

A single-center, retrospective study of COVID-19 features in children: a descriptive investigation.

Abstract: Compared to adults, there are relatively few studies on COVID-19 infection in children, and even less focusing on the unique features of COVID-19 in children in terms of laboratory findings, locations of computerized tomography (CT) lesions, and the role of CT in evaluating clinical recovery. The objective of this study is to report the results from patients at Wuhan Children’s Hospital, located within the initial center of the outbreak. Clinical, imaging, and laboratory data of 76 children were collected retrospectively and analyzed with the Fisher exact test and Cox regression statistical methods. Among 50 children with a positive COVID-19 real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR), five had negative PCR results initially but showed positive results in subsequent tests. Eight (16%) patients had lymphopenia, seven (14%) with thrombocytopenia, four (8%) with lymphocytosis, two (4%) with thrombocytosis, ten (20%) with elevated C-reactive protein, four (8%) with hemoglobin above, and six (12%) with below standard reference values. Seven (14%) of the 50 had no radiologic evidence of disease on chest CT. For the 43 patients who had abnormal CT findings, in addition to previously reported patterns of ground-glass opacity (67%), local patchy shadowing (37%), local bilateral patchy shadowing (21%), and lesion location of lower lobes (65%), other CT features include that an overwhelming number of pediatric patients had lesions in the subpleural area (95%) and 22 of the 28 lower lobe lesions were in the posterior segment (78%). Lesions in most of the 15 patients (67%) who received chest CT at discharge were not completely absorbed, and 26% of these pediatric patients had CT lesions that were either unchanged or worse. There were a few differences between COVID-19 children and COVID-19 adults in terms of laboratory findings and CT characteristics. CT is a powerful tool to detect and characterize COVID-19 pneumonia but has little utility in evaluating clinical recovery for children. These results oppose current COVID-19 hospital discharge criteria in China, as one requirement is that pulmonary imaging must show significant lesion absorption prior to discharge. These differences between pediatric and adult cases of COVID-19 may necessitate pediatric-specific discharge criteria.

Functional somatic disorders: discussion paper for a new common classification for research and clinical use

Abstract: Functional somatic symptoms and disorders are common and complex phenomena involving both bodily and brain processes. They pose major challenges across medical specialties. These disorders are common and have significant impacts on patients’ quality of life and healthcare costs. We outline five problems pointing to the need for a new classification: (1) developments in understanding aetiological mechanisms; (2) the current division of disorders according to the treating specialist; (3) failure of current classifications to cover the variety of disorders and their severity (for example, patients with symptoms from multiple organs systems); (4) the need to find acceptable categories and labels for patients that promote therapeutic partnership; and (5) the need to develop clinical services and research for people with severe disorders. We propose ‘functional somatic disorders’ (FSD) as an umbrella term for various conditions characterised by persistent and troublesome physical symptoms. FSDs are diagnosed clinically, on the basis of characteristic symptom patterns. As with all diagnoses, a diagnosis of FSD should be made after considering other possible somatic and mental differential diagnoses. We propose that FSD should occupy a neutral space within disease classifications, favouring neither somatic disease aetiology, nor mental disorder. FSD should be subclassified as (a) multisystem, (b) single system, or (c) single symptom. While additional specifiers may be added to take account of psychological features or co-occurring diseases, neither of these is sufficient or necessary to make the diagnosis. We recommend that FSD criteria are written so as to harmonise with existing syndrome diagnoses. Where currently defined syndromes fall within the FSD spectrum – and also within organ system-specific chapters of a classification – they should be afforded dual parentage (for example, irritable bowel syndrome can belong to both gastrointestinal disorders and FSD). We propose a new classification, ‘functional somatic disorder’, which is neither purely somatic nor purely mental, but occupies a neutral space between these two historical poles. This classification reflects both emerging aetiological evidence of the complex interactions between brain and body and the need to resolve the historical split between somatic and mental disorders.

Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study.

Abstract: The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and ‘shielding’ (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty. We predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2–4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age. In African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

Evidence for treatment with estradiol for women with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Abstract: Given that an individual’s age and gender are strongly predictive of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, do such factors imply anything about preferable therapeutic options? An analysis of electronic health records for a large (68,466-case), international COVID-19 cohort, in 5-year age strata, revealed age-dependent sex differences. In particular, we surveyed the effects of systemic hormone administration in women. The primary outcome for estradiol therapy was death. Odds ratios (ORs) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were analyzed for 37,086 COVID-19 women in two age groups: pre- (15–49 years) and peri-/post-menopausal (> 50 years). The incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is higher in women than men (by about + 15%) and, in contrast, the fatality rate is higher in men (about + 50%). Interestingly, the relationships between these quantities are linked to age: pre-adolescent girls and boys had the same risk of infection and fatality rate, while adult premenopausal women had a significantly higher risk of infection than men in the same 5-year age stratum (about 16,000 vs. 12,000 cases). This ratio changed again in peri- and postmenopausal women, with infection susceptibility converging with men. While fatality rates increased continuously with age for both sexes, at 50 years, there was a steeper increase for men. Thus far, these types of intricacies have been largely neglected. Because the hormone 17s-estradiol influences expression of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which plays a role in SARS-CoV-2 cellular entry, propensity score matching was performed for the women’s sub-cohort, comparing users vs. non-users of estradiol. This retrospective study of hormone therapy in female COVID-19 patients shows that the fatality risk for women > 50 years receiving estradiol therapy (user group) is reduced by more than 50%; the OR was 0.33, 95% CI [0.18, 0.62] and the hazard ratio (HR) was 0.29, 95% CI [0.11,0.76]. For younger, pre-menopausal women (15–49 years), the risk of COVID-19 fatality is the same irrespective of estradiol treatment, probably because of higher endogenous estradiol levels. As of this writing, still no effective drug treatment is available for COVID-19; since estradiol shows such a strong improvement regarding fatality in COVID-19, we suggest prospective studies on the potentially more broadly protective roles of this naturally occurring hormone.

The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Abstract: Many low- and middle-income countries have implemented control measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it is not clear to what extent these measures explain the low numbers of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths in Africa. One of the main aims of control measures is to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission through direct contact with others. In this study, we collect contact data from residents of informal settlements around Nairobi, Kenya, to assess if control measures have changed contact patterns, and estimate the impact of changes on the basic reproduction number (R0). We conducted a social contact survey with 213 residents of five informal settlements around Nairobi in early May 2020, 4 weeks after the Kenyan government introduced enhanced physical distancing measures and a curfew between 7 pm and 5 am. Respondents were asked to report all direct physical and non-physical contacts made the previous day, alongside a questionnaire asking about the social and economic impact of COVID-19 and control measures. We examined contact patterns by demographic factors, including socioeconomic status. We described the impact of COVID-19 and control measures on income and food security. We compared contact patterns during control measures to patterns from non-pandemic periods to estimate the change in R0. We estimate that control measures reduced physical contacts by 62% and non-physical contacts by either 63% or 67%, depending on the pre-COVID-19 comparison matrix used. Masks were worn by at least one person in 92% of contacts. Respondents in the poorest socioeconomic quintile reported 1.5 times more contacts than those in the richest. Eighty-six percent of respondents reported a total or partial loss of income due to COVID-19, and 74% reported eating less or skipping meals due to having too little money for food. COVID-19 control measures have had a large impact on direct contacts and therefore transmission, but have also caused considerable economic and food insecurity. Reductions in R0 are consistent with the comparatively low epidemic growth in Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries that implemented similar, early control measures. However, negative and inequitable impacts on economic and food security may mean control measures are not sustainable in the longer term.

Insulin: too much of a good thing is bad

Abstract: Insulin shares a limited physiological concentration range with other endocrine hormones Not only too low, but also too high systemic insulin levels are detrimental for body functions The physiological function and clinical relevance of insulin are usually seen in association with its role in maintaining glucose homeostasis However, insulin is an anabolic hormone which stimulates a large number of cellular responses Not only too low, but also excess insulin concentrations are detrimental to the physiological balance Although the glucoregulatory activity of insulin is mitigated during hyperinsulinemia by dampening the efficiency of insulin signaling (“insulin resistance”), this is not the case for most other hormonal actions of insulin, including the promotion of protein synthesis, de novo lipogenesis, and cell proliferation; the inhibition of lipolysis, of autophagy-dependent cellular turnover, and of nuclear factor E2-related factor-2 (Nrf2)-dependent antioxidative; and other defense mechanisms Hence, there is no general insulin resistance but selective impairment of insulin signaling which causes less glucose uptake from the blood and reduced activation of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) Because of the largely unrestricted insulin signaling, hyperinsulinemia increases the risk of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease and decreases health span and life expectancy In epidemiological studies, high-dose insulin therapy is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease Randomized controlled trials of insulin treatment did not observe any effect on disease risk, but these trials only studied low insulin doses up to 40 IU/day Proof for a causal link between elevated insulin levels and cardiovascular disease risk comes from Mendelian randomization studies comparing individuals with genetically controlled low or high insulin production The detrimental actions of prolonged high insulin concentrations, seen also in cell culture, argue in favor of a lifestyle that limits circadian insulin levels The health risks associated with hyperinsulinemia may have implications for treatment regimens used in type 2 diabetes