Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
Rachel Lowe,Caio A. S. Coelho,Christovam Barcellos,Marilia Sá Carvalho,Rafael de Castro Catão,Giovanini E. Coelho,Walter Massa Ramalho,Trevor C. Bailey,David B. Stephenson,Xavier Rodó +9 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% forThe forecast model compared to 33% for thenull model.Abstract:
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.
Rachel Lowe,Christovam Barcellos,Patrícia Brasil,Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz,Nildimar Alves Honório,Hannah Kuper,Marilia Sá Carvalho +6 more
TL;DR: An overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts is provided.
Journal ArticleDOI
An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics.
Michael A. Johansson,Michael A. Johansson,Karyn M. Apfeldorf,Scott Dobson,Jason Devita,Anna L. Buczak,Benjamin Baugher,Linda J. Moniz,Thomas Bagley,Steven M. Babin,Erhan Guven,Teresa K. Yamana,Jeffrey Shaman,Terry Moschou,Nick Lothian,Aaron Lane,Grant Osborne,Gao Jiang,Logan C. Brooks,David C. Farrow,Sangwon Hyun,Ryan J. Tibshirani,Roni Rosenfeld,Justin Lessler,Nicholas G. Reich,Derek A. T. Cummings,Stephen A. Lauer,Sean M. Moore,Hannah E. Clapham,Rachel Lowe,Trevor C. Bailey,Markel García-Díez,Marilia Sá Carvalho,Xavier Rodó,Tridip Sardar,Richard Paul,Evan L. Ray,Krzysztof Sakrejda,Alexandria C. Brown,Xi Meng,Osonde A. Osoba,Raffaele Vardavas,David Manheim,Melinda Moore,Dhananjai M. Rao,Travis C. Porco,Sarah F Ackley,Fengchen Liu,Lee Worden,Matteo Convertino,Yang Liu,Abraham Reddy,Eloy Ortiz,Jorge Rivero,Humberto Brito,Alicia Juarrero,Leah R. Johnson,Robert B. Gramacy,Jeremy M. Cohen,Erin A. Mordecai,Courtney C. Murdock,Jason R. Rohr,Sadie J. Ryan,Sadie J. Ryan,Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra,Daniel P. Weikel,Antarpreet Jutla,Rakibul Khan,Marissa Poultney,Rita R. Colwell,Brenda Rivera-Garcia,Christopher M. Barker,Jesse E. Bell,Matthew Biggerstaff,David L. Swerdlow,Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero,Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero,Brett M. Forshey,Juli Trtanj,Jason Asher,Matt Clay,Harold S. Margolis,Andrew M. Hebbeler,Dylan B. George,Jean Paul Chretien,Jean Paul Chretien +85 more
TL;DR: An open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem, revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study.
Rachel Lowe,Antonio Gasparrini,Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck,Catherine A. Lippi,Roché Mahon,Adrian R. Trotman,Leslie Rollock,Avery Q. J. Hinds,Sadie J. Ryan,Sadie J. Ryan,Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra +10 more
TL;DR: Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months, and drought conditions was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador.
Rachel Lowe,Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra,Desislava Petrova,Markel García-Díez,Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova,Raúl Mejía,Mary Regato,Xavier Rodó +7 more
TL;DR: This study advances the state-of-the-art of climate services for the health sector, by showing the potential value of incorporating climate information in the public health decision-making process in Ecuador.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of Ebola in the Western Area region of Sierra Leone, 2014-15.
TL;DR: An evaluation approach that disentangles different components of forecasting ability using metrics that separately assess the calibration, sharpness and bias of forecasts is proposed, which suggests that forecasts may have been of good enough quality to inform decision making based on predictions a few weeks ahead of time but not longer.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
The global distribution and burden of dengue
Samir Bhatt,Peter W. Gething,Oliver J. Brady,Jane P. Messina,Andrew Farlow,Catherine L. Moyes,John M. Drake,John M. Drake,John S. Brownstein,Anne G. Hoen,Osman Sankoh,Osman Sankoh,Monica F. Myers,Dylan B. George,Thomas Jaenisch,G. R. William Wint,Cameron P. Simmons,Thomas W. Scott,Thomas W. Scott,Jeremy Farrar,Jeremy Farrar,Simon I. Hay,Simon I. Hay +22 more
TL;DR: These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)
Robert F. Adler,George J. Huffman,Alfred T. C. Chang,Ralph Ferraro,Pingping Xie,John E. Janowiak,B. Rudolf,Udo Schneider,Scott Curtis,David T. Bolvin,Arnold Gruber,Joel Susskind,P. A. Arkin,Eric Nelkin +13 more
TL;DR: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) version 2 Monthly Precise Analysis as discussed by the authors is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations.
BookDOI
Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
TL;DR: Jolliffe et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed a framework for verification of spatial fields based on binary and categorical events, and proved the correctness of the proposed framework with past, present and future predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI
The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. Albopictus
Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Marianne E. Sinka,Kirsten A. Duda,Adrian Mylne,Freya M Shearer,Christopher M. Barker,Chester G. Moore,Roberta G. Carvalho,Giovanini E. Coelho,Wim Van Bortel,Guy Hendrickx,Francis Schaffner,Iqbal R. F. Elyazar,Hwa-Jen Teng,Oliver J. Brady,Jane P. Messina,David M. Pigott,Thomas W. Scott,David L. Smith,G. R. William Wint,Nick Golding,Simon I. Hay +21 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution, showing Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe.
Journal ArticleDOI
First report of autochthonous transmission of Zika virus in Brazil
Camila Zanluca,Vanessa Campos Andrade de Melo,Ana Luiza Pamplona Mosimann,Glauco Igor Viana dos Santos,Claudia Nunes Duarte dos Santos,Kleber Giovanni Luz +5 more
TL;DR: Phylogenetic analysis suggests that the ZikV identified belongs to the Asian clade, the first report of ZIKV infection in Brazil, and the result was confirmed by DNA sequencing.
Related Papers (5)
The global distribution and burden of dengue
Samir Bhatt,Peter W. Gething,Oliver J. Brady,Jane P. Messina,Andrew Farlow,Catherine L. Moyes,John M. Drake,John M. Drake,John S. Brownstein,Anne G. Hoen,Osman Sankoh,Osman Sankoh,Monica F. Myers,Dylan B. George,Thomas Jaenisch,G. R. William Wint,Cameron P. Simmons,Thomas W. Scott,Thomas W. Scott,Jeremy Farrar,Jeremy Farrar,Simon I. Hay,Simon I. Hay +22 more