Journal ArticleDOI
Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble
Victor Ongoma,Victor Ongoma,Haishan Chen,Chujie Gao,Aston Matwai Nyongesa,Aston Matwai Nyongesa,Francis Polong +6 more
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In this paper, the authors investigated the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).Abstract:
This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.read more
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Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa
Brian Ayugi,Jiang Zhihong,Huanhuan Zhu,Hamida Ngoma,Hamida Ngoma,Hassen Babaousmail,Karim Rizwan,Victor Nnamdi Dike +7 more
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Assessing current and future trends of climate extremes across Brazil based on reanalyses and earth system model projections
Alvaro Avila-Diaz,Victor Hugo Benezoli,Flavio Justino,Roger Rodrigues Torres,Aaron B. Wilson +4 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed the historical patterns and projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across Brazil using the World Climate Research Program's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices framework.
Journal ArticleDOI
Trend in Extreme Precipitation Indices Based on Long Term In Situ Precipitation Records over Pakistan
Asher Samuel Bhatti,Guojie Wang,Waheed Ullah,Safi Ullah,Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan,Isaac Kwesi Nooni,Dan Lou,Irfan Ullah +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the variability of extreme precipitation events over Pakistan on the basis of daily precipitation data from 51 weather stations from 1980-2016, using nonparametric Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimator, least squares method, and two-tailed simple t-test methods were used to assess the trend in eight precipitation extreme indices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March-May and September-November) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models
Alessandro Dosio,Martin W. Jury,Martin W. Jury,Mansour Almazroui,Mansour Almazroui,Moetasim Ashfaq,Ismaila Diallo,Francois Engelbrecht,Nana Ama Browne Klutse,Nana Ama Browne Klutse,Christopher Lennard,Izidine Pinto,Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,Alain T. Tamoffo +13 more
TL;DR: The authors provided an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Summary for Policymakers
T. Barker,I. Bashmakov,Lenny Bernstein,J Bogner,Peter Bosch,Rutu Dave,Ogunlade Davidson,Brian Fisher,M. Grubb,Sunil Gupta,Kirsten Halsnæs,Bertjan Heij,S. Kahn Ribeiro,Shingo Kobayashi,Mark D. Levine,Daniel Martino,O Masera Cerutti,Bert Metz,Leo Meyer,Gert-Jan Nabuurs,Adil Najam,N Nakicenovic,Hans-Holger Rogner,Joyashree Roy,J. Sathaye,R.N. Schock,P.R. Shukla,Ralph E.H. Sims,Pete Smith,Rob Swart,Dennis Tirpak,Diana Ürge-Vorsatz,Z. Dadi +32 more
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