Showing papers in "Journal of Geophysical Research in 2006"

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

Abstract: A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

Abstract: [1] The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty.

A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination

Abstract: [1] We present a new common stratigraphic timescale for the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and GRIP ice cores. The timescale covers the period 7.9–14.8 kyr before present and includes the Bolling, Allerod, Younger Dryas, and early Holocene periods. We use a combination of new and previously published data, the most prominent being new high-resolution Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) impurity records from the NGRIP ice core. Several investigators have identified and counted annual layers using a multiparameter approach, and the maximum counting error is estimated to be up to 2% in the Holocene part and about 3% for the older parts. These counting error estimates reflect the number of annual layers that were hard to interpret, but not a possible bias in the set of rules used for annual layer identification. As the GRIP and NGRIP ice cores are not optimal for annual layer counting in the middle and late Holocene, the timescale is tied to a prominent volcanic event inside the 8.2 kyr cold event, recently dated in the DYE-3 ice core to 8236 years before A. D. 2000 (b2k) with a maximum counting error of 47 years. The new timescale dates the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition to 11,703 b2k, which is 100–150 years older than according to the present GRIP and NGRIP timescales. The age of the transition matches the GISP2 timescale within a few years, but viewed over the entire 7.9–14.8 kyr section, there are significant differences between the new timescale and the GISP2 timescale. The transition from the glacial into the Bolling interstadial is dated to 14,692 b2k. The presented timescale is a part of a new Greenland ice core chronology common to the DYE-3, GRIP, and NGRIP ice cores, named the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). The annual layer thicknesses are observed to be log-normally distributed with good approximation, and compared to the early Holocene, the mean accumulation rates in the Younger Dryas and Bolling periods are found to be 47 ± 2% and 88 ± 2%, respectively.

GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions

Abstract: [1] The GPS-derived velocity field (1988–2005) for the zone of interaction of the Arabian, African (Nubian, Somalian), and Eurasian plates indicates counterclockwise rotation of a broad area of the Earth's surface including the Arabian plate, adjacent parts of the Zagros and central Iran, Turkey, and the Aegean/Peloponnesus relative to Eurasia at rates in the range of 20–30 mm/yr. This relatively rapid motion occurs within the framework of the slow-moving (∼5 mm/yr relative motions) Eurasian, Nubian, and Somalian plates. The circulatory pattern of motion increases in rate toward the Hellenic trench system. We develop an elastic block model to constrain present-day plate motions (relative Euler vectors), regional deformation within the interplate zone, and slip rates for major faults. Substantial areas of continental lithosphere within the region of plate interaction show coherent motion with internal deformations below ∼1–2 mm/yr, including central and eastern Anatolia (Turkey), the southwestern Aegean/Peloponnesus, the Lesser Caucasus, and Central Iran. Geodetic slip rates for major block-bounding structures are mostly comparable to geologic rates estimated for the most recent geological period (∼3–5 Myr). We find that the convergence of Arabia with Eurasia is accommodated in large part by lateral transport within the interior part of the collision zone and lithospheric shortening along the Caucasus and Zagros mountain belts around the periphery of the collision zone. In addition, we find that the principal boundary between the westerly moving Anatolian plate and Arabia (East Anatolian fault) is presently characterized by pure left-lateral strike slip with no fault-normal convergence. This implies that “extrusion” is not presently inducing westward motion of Anatolia. On the basis of the observed kinematics, we hypothesize that deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia collision zone is driven in large part by rollback of the subducting African lithosphere beneath the Hellenic and Cyprus trenches aided by slab pull on the southeastern side of the subducting Arabian plate along the Makran subduction zone. We further suggest that the separation of Arabia from Africa is a response to plate motions induced by active subduction.

Application of spheroid models to account for aerosol particle nonsphericity in remote sensing of desert dust

Abstract: [ 1] The possibility of using shape mixtures of randomly oriented spheroids for modeling desert dust aerosol light scattering is discussed. For reducing calculation time, look-up tables were simulated for quadrature coefficients employed in the numerical integration of spheroid optical properties over size and shape. The calculations were done for 25 bins of the spheroid axis ratio ranging from similar to 0.3 ( flattened spheroids) to similar to 3.0 ( elongated spheroids) and for 41 narrow size bins covering the size parameter range from similar to 0.012 to similar to 625. The look-up tables were arranged into a software package, which allows fast, accurate, and flexible modeling of scattering by randomly oriented spheroids with different size and shape distributions. In order to evaluate spheroid model and explore the possibility of aerosol shape identification, the software tool has been integrated into inversion algorithms for retrieving detailed aerosol properties from laboratory or remote sensing polarimetric measurements of light scattering. The application of this retrieval technique to laboratory measurements by Volten et al. ( 2001) has shown that spheroids can closely reproduce mineral dust light scattering matrices. The spheroid model was utilized for retrievals of aerosol properties from atmospheric radiation measured by AERONET ground-based Sun/sky-radiometers. It is shown that mixtures of spheroids allow rather accurate fitting of measured spectral and angular dependencies of observed intensity and polarization. Moreover, it is shown that for aerosol mixtures with a significant fraction of coarse-mode particles ( radii >= similar to 1 mu m), the nonsphericity of aerosol particles can be detected as part of AERONET retrievals. The retrieval results indicate that nonspherical particles with aspect ratios similar to 1.5 and higher dominate in desert dust plumes, while in the case of background maritime aerosol spherical particles are dominant. Finally, the potential of using AERONET derived spheroid mixtures for modeling the effects of aerosol particle nonsphericity in other remote sensing techniques is discussed. For example, the variability of lidar measurements ( extinction to backscattering ratio and signal depolarization ratio) is illustrated and analyzed. Also, some potentially important differences in the sensitivity of angular light scattering to parameters of nonspherical versus spherical aerosols are revealed and discussed.

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

Abstract: Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing optimistic, likely, and pessimistic options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m-2, compared to a CO 2 forcing over the same time period of 800-1100 mW m-2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000 and 550 Tg(O 3 ) yr-1, respectively. These values are significantly different to the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O 3 )) is 10% larger than the IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days) is 10% shorter. Results from individual models show a correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate change is much less consistent. Models show more variability in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep tropical convection, including lightning NO x production; isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's degradation chemistry; stratosphere-troposphere exchange; biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Heating and weakening of faults during earthquake slip

Abstract: [1] Field observations of mature crustal faults suggest that slip in individual events occurs primarily within a thin shear zone, <1–5 mm, within a finely granulated, ultracataclastic fault core. Relevant weakening processes in large crustal events are therefore suggested to be thermal, and to involve the following: (1) thermal pressurization of pore fluid within and adjacent to the deforming fault core, which reduces the effective normal stress and hence also the shear strength for a given friction coefficient and (2) flash heating at highly stressed frictional microcontacts during rapid slip, which reduces the friction coefficient. (Macroscopic melting, or possibly gel formation in silica-rich lithologies, may become important too at large enough slip.) Theoretical modeling of mechanisms 1 and 2 is constrained with lab-determined hydrologic and poroelastic properties of fault core materials and lab friction studies at high slip rates. Predictions are that strength drop should often be nearly complete at large slip and that the onset of melting should be precluded over much (and, for small enough slip, all) of the seismogenic zone. A testable prediction is of the shear fracture energies that would be implied if actual earthquake ruptures were controlled by those thermal mechanisms. Seismic data have been compiled on the fracture energy of crustal events, including its variation with slip in an event. It is plausibly described by theoretical predictions based on the above mechanisms, within a considerable range of uncertainty of parameter choices, thus allowing the possibility that such thermal weakening prevails in the Earth.

High-resolution mantle tomography of China and surrounding regions

Abstract: [1] A high-resolution P wave tomographic model of the crust and mantle down to 1100 km depth under China and surrounding regions is determined by using about one million arrival times of P, pP, PP, and PcP waves from 19,361 earthquakes recorded by 1012 seismic stations. The subducting Pacific slab is imaged clearly as a high-velocity zone from the oceanic trenches down to about 600 km depth, and intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes are located within the slab. The Pacific slab becomes stagnant in the mantle transition zone under east China. The western edge of the stagnant slab is roughly coincident with a surface topographic boundary in east China. The active Changbai and Wudalianchi intraplate volcanoes in northeast China are underlain by significant slow anomalies in the upper mantle, above the stagnant Pacific slab. These results suggest that the active intraplate volcanoes in NE China are not hot spots but a kind of back-arc volcano associated with the deep subduction of the Pacific slab and its stagnancy in the transition zone. Under the Mariana arc, however, the Pacific slab penetrates directly down to the lower mantle. The active Tengchong volcano in southwest China is related to the eastward subduction of the Burma microplate. The subducting Indian and Philippine Sea plates are also imaged clearly. The Indian plate has subducted down to 200–300 km depth under the Tibetan Plateau with a horizontal moving distance of about 500 km. High-velocity anomalies are revealed in the upper mantle under the Tarim basin, Ordos, and Sichuan basin, which are three stable blocks in China.

Evolution of ozone, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston using a fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model

Abstract: [1] A new fully coupled meteorology-chemistry-aerosol model is used to simulate the urban- to regional-scale variations in trace gases, particulates, and aerosol direct radiative forcing in the vicinity of Houston over a 5 day summer period. Model performance is evaluated using a wide range of meteorological, chemistry, and particulate measurements obtained during the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study. The predicted trace gas and particulate distributions were qualitatively similar to the surface and aircraft measurements with considerable spatial variations resulting from urban, power plant, and industrial sources of primary pollutants. Sulfate, organic carbon, and other inorganics were the largest constituents of the predicted particulates. The predicted shortwave radiation was 30 to 40 W m−2 closer to the observations when the aerosol optical properties were incorporated into the shortwave radiation scheme; however, the predicted hourly aerosol radiative forcing was still underestimated by 10 to 50 W m−2. The predicted aerosol radiative forcing was larger over Houston and the industrial ship channel than over the rural areas, consistent with surface measurements. The differences between the observed and simulated aerosol radiative forcing resulted from transport errors, relative humidity errors in the upper convective boundary layer that affect aerosol water content, secondary organic aerosols that were not yet included in the model, and uncertainties in the primary particulate emission rates. The current model was run in a predictive mode and demonstrates the challenges of accurately simulating all of the meteorological, chemical, and aerosol parameters over urban to regional scales that can affect aerosol radiative forcing.

Troposphere mapping functions for GPS and very long baseline interferometry from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analysis data

Abstract: [1] In the analyses of geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and GPS data the analytic form used for mapping of the atmosphere delay from zenith to the line of site is most often a three-parameter continued fraction in 1/sin(elevation). Using the 40 years reanalysis (ERA-40) data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the year 2001, the b and c coefficients of the continued fraction form for the hydrostatic mapping functions have been redetermined. Unlike previous mapping functions based on data from numerical weather models (isobaric mapping functions (Niell, 2000) and Vienna mapping functions (VMF) (Boehm and Schuh, 2004)), the new c coefficients are dependent on the day of the year, and unlike the Niell mapping functions (Niell, 1996) they are no longer symmetric with respect to the equator (apart from the opposite phase for the two hemispheres). Compared to VMF, this causes an effect on the VLBI or GPS station heights that is constant and as large as 2 mm at the equator and that varies seasonally between 4 mm and 0 mm at the poles. The updated VMF, based on these new coefficients and called VMF1 hereinafter, yields slightly better baseline length repeatabilities for VLBI data. The hydrostatic and wet mapping functions are applied in various combinations with different kinds of a priori zenith delays in the analyses of all VLBI International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS)-R1 and IVS-R4 24-hour sessions of 2002 and 2003; the investigations concentrate on baseline length repeatabilities, as well as on absolute changes of station heights.

Vertical distribution of phytoplankton communities in open ocean: An assessment based on surface chlorophyll

Abstract: [1] The present study examines the potential of using the near-surface chlorophyll a concentration ([Chla]surf), as it can be derived from ocean color observation, to infer the column-integrated phytoplankton biomass, its vertical distribution, and ultimately the community composition. Within this context, a large High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) pigment database was analyzed. It includes 2419 vertical pigment profiles, sampled in case 1 waters with various trophic states (0.03–6 mg Chla m � 3 ). The relationships between [Chla]surf and the chlorophyll a vertical distribution, as previously derived by Morel and Berthon (1989), are fully confirmed. This agreement makes it possible to go further and to examine if similar relationships between [Chla]surf and the phytoplankton assemblage composition along the vertical can be derived. Thanks to the detailed pigment composition, and use of specific pigment biomarkers, the contribution to the local chlorophyll a concentration of three phytoplankton groups can be assessed. With some cautions, these groups coincide with three size classes, i.e., microplankton, nanoplankton and picoplankton. Corroborating previous regional findings (e.g., large species dominate in eutrophic environments, whereas tiny phytoplankton prevail in oligotrophic zones), the present results lead to an empirical parameterization applicable to most oceanic waters. The predictive skill of this parameterization is satisfactorily tested on a separate data set. With such a tool, the vertical chlorophyll a profiles of each group can be inferred solely from the knowledge of [Chla]surf. By combining this tool with satellite ocean color data, it becomes possible to quantify on a global scale the phytoplankton biomass associated with each of the three algal assemblages.

Characteristics of atmospheric transport into the Arctic troposphere

Abstract: [1] The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to construct a global data set of 1.4 million continuous trajectories. At the model start, particles were distributed homogeneously in the atmosphere and were then transported for 5.5 years using both resolved winds from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses and parameterized turbulent and convective transport. On the basis of this data set, a climatology of transport in and to the Arctic was developed. It was found that the time air resides continuously north of 70°N, called its Arctic age, is highest near the surface in the North American sector of the Arctic. North of 80°N and near the surface, the mean Arctic age of air is about 1 week in winter and 2 weeks in summer. It decreases rapidly with altitude to about 3 days in the upper troposphere. In the most isolated regions of the Arctic, air is exposed to continuous darkness for, on average, 10–14 days in December. Transport from the stratosphere to the lower troposphere is much slower in the Arctic than in the middle latitudes. In the central Arctic, for instance, the probability that air near the surface was transported from the stratosphere within 10 days is only about 1% in winter and 0.3% in summer. Air pollution can be transported into the Arctic along three different pathways: low-level transport followed by ascent in the Arctic, low-level transport alone, and uplift outside the Arctic, followed by descent in the Arctic. Only this last pathway is frequent for pollution originating from North America and Asia, whereas European pollution can follow all three pathways in winter, and pathways one and three in summer. Sensitivities of Arctic air masses to emissions of air pollutants, based on transport alone, were calculated for times of up to 30 days before the air masses reached the Arctic. They were highest over Siberia and Europe in winter and over the oceans in summer. Using an inventory for anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emissions, it was found that near the surface and for transport timescales of 5 and 10 days, BC source contributions from south Asia are only 1.6% and 10%, respectively, of the corresponding European values, despite much higher emissions in south Asia. Using an inventory for BC emissions from forest fires, BC source contributions to the Arctic, particularly from fires in Siberia, were larger than anthropogenic BC source contributions in summer in years of average burning.

Optical properties of deep glacial ice at the South Pole

Abstract: We have remotely mapped optical scattering and absorption in glacial ice at the South Pole for wavelengths between 313 and 560 nm and depths between 1100 and 2350 m. We used pulsed and continuous light sources embedded with the AMANDA neutrino telescope, an array of more than six hundred photomultiplier tubes buried deep in the ice. At depths greater than 1300 m, both the scattering coefficient and absorptivity follow vertical variations in concentration of dust impurities, which are seen in ice cores from other Antarctic sites and which track climatological changes. The scattering coefficient varies by a factor of seven, and absorptivity (for wavelengths less than ∼450 nm) varies by a factor of three in the depth range between 1300 and 2300 m, where four dust peaks due to stadials in the late Pleistocene have been identified. In our absorption data, we also identify a broad peak due to the Last Glacial Maximum around 1300 m. In the scattering data, this peak is partially masked by scattering on residual air bubbles, whose contribution dominates the scattering coefficient in shallower ice but vanishes at ∼1350 m where all bubbles have converted to nonscattering air hydrates. The wavelength dependence of scattering by dust is described by a power law with exponent -0.90 ± 0.03, independent of depth. The wavelength dependence of absorptivity in the studied wavelength range is described by the sum of two components: a power law due to absorption by dust, with exponent -1.08 ± 0.01 and a normalization proportional to dust concentration that varies with depth; and a rising exponential due to intrinsic ice absorption which dominates at wavelengths greater than ∼500 nm. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models

Abstract: [1] An analysis of the climate of precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional climate models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and to examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from the same ensemble of global climate model integrations for present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values of daily precipitation totals estimated from extreme value analysis. An evaluation of the RCMs against observations in the Alpine region shows that model biases for extremes are comparable to or even smaller than those for wet day intensity and mean precipitation. In winter, precipitation extremes tend to increase north of about 45°N, while there is an insignificant change or a decrease to the south. In northern Europe the 20-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 40- to 100-year return value of present climate. There is a good agreement between the RCMs, and the simulated change is similar to a scaling of present-day extremes by the change in average events. In contrast, there are large model differences in summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly to scenario uncertainty. The model differences are well explained by differences in the precipitation frequency and intensity process, but in all models, extremes increase more or decrease less than would be expected from the scaling of present-day extremes. There is evidence for a component of the change that affects extremes specifically and is consistent between models despite the large variation in the total response.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

Abstract: Received 31 May 2005; revised 10 January 2006; accepted 23 March 2006; published 21 July 2006. [1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961–2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold (fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by � 3.7 and � 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm (cold) has increased (decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Angstrom exponent and bimodal aerosol size distributions

Abstract: Powerlaws have long been used to describe the spectral dependence of aerosol extinction, and the wavelength exponent of the aerosol extinction powerlaw is commonly referred to as the Angstrom exponent. The Angstrom exponent is often used as a qualitative indicator of aerosol particle size, with values greater than two indicating small particles associated with combustion byproducts, and values less than one indicating large particles like sea salt and dust. In this study, we investigate the relationship between the Angstrom exponent and the mode parameters of bimodal aerosol size distributions using Mie theory calculations and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) retrievals. We find that Angstrom exponents based upon seven wavelengths (0.34, 0.38, 0.44, 0.5, 0.67, 0.87, and 1.02 micrometers) are sensitive to the volume fraction of aerosols with radii less then 0.6 micrometers, but not to the fine mode effective radius. The Angstrom exponent is also known to vary with wavelength, which is commonly referred to as curvature; we show how the spectral curvature can provide additional information about aerosol size distributions for intermediate values of the Angstrom exponent. Curvature also has a significant effect on the conclusions that can be drawn about two-wavelength Angstrom exponents; long wavelengths (0.67, 0.87 micrometers) are sensitive to fine mode volume fraction of aerosols but not fine mode effective radius, while short wavelengths (0.38, 0.44 micrometers) are sensitive to the fine mode effective radius but not the fine mode volume fraction.

Overview of the Spirit Mars Exploration Rover Mission to Gusev Crater: Landing site to Backstay Rock in the Columbia Hills

Abstract: Spirit landed on the floor of Gusev Crater and conducted initial operations on soil covered, rock-strewn cratered plains underlain by olivine-bearing basalts. Plains surface rocks are covered by wind-blown dust and show evidence for surface enrichment of soluble species as vein and void-filling materials and coatings. The surface enrichment is the result of a minor amount of transport and deposition by aqueous processes. Layered granular deposits were discovered in the Columbia Hills, with outcrops that tend to dip conformably with the topography. The granular rocks are interpreted to be volcanic ash and/or impact ejecta deposits that have been modified by aqueous fluids during and/or after emplacement. Soils consist of basaltic deposits that are weakly cohesive, relatively poorly sorted, and covered by a veneer of wind blown dust. The soils have been homogenized by wind transport over at least the several kilometer length scale traversed by the rover. Mobilization of soluble species has occurred within at least two soil deposits examined. The presence of mono-layers of coarse sand on wind-blown bedforms, together with even spacing of granule-sized surface clasts, suggest that some of the soil surfaces encountered by Spirit have not been modified by wind for some time. On the other hand, dust deposits on the surface and rover deck have changed during the course of the mission. Detection of dust devils, monitoring of the dust opacity and lower boundary layer, and coordinated experiments with orbiters provided new insights into atmosphere-surface dynamics.

Single‐particle measurements of midlatitude black carbon and light‐scattering aerosols from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere

Abstract: A single-particle soot photometer (SP2) was flown on a NASA WB-57F high-altitude research aircraft in November 2004 from Houston, Texas. The SP2 uses laser-induced incandescence to detect individual black carbon (BC) particles in an air sample in the mass range of $3-300 fg ($0.15-0.7 mm volume equivalent diameter). Scattered light is used to size the remaining non-BC aerosols in the range of $0.17-0.7 mm diameter. We present profiles of both aerosol types from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere from two midlatitude flights. Results for total aerosol amounts in the size range detected by the SP2 are in good agreement with typical particle spectrometer measurements in the same region. All ambient incandescing particles were identified as BC because their incandescence properties matched those of laboratory-generated BC aerosol. Approximately 40% of these BC particles showed evidence of internal mixing (e.g., coating). Throughout profiles between 5 and 18.7 km, BC particles were less than a few percent of total aerosol number, and black carbon aerosol (BCA) mass mixing ratio showed a constant gradient with altitude above 5 km. SP2 data was compared to results from the ECHAM4/MADE and LmDzT-INCA global aerosol models. The comparison will help resolve the important systematic differences in model aerosol processes that determine BCA loadings. Further intercomparisons of models and measurements as presented here will improve the accuracy of the radiative forcing contribution from BCA.

A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene

Abstract: As part of the effort to create the new Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) a synchronized stratigraphical timescale for the Holocene parts of the DYE- 3, GRIP and NGRIP ice cores is made by using volcanic reference horizons in electri- cal conductivity measurements to match the cores. The main annual layer counting is carried out on the most suited records only, exploit- ing that the three ice cores have been drilled at locations with different climatic con- ditions and differences in ice flow. However, supplemental counting on data from all cores has been performed between each set of reference horizons in order to verify the valid- ity of the match. After the verification, the main dating is transferred to all records us- ing the volcanic reference horizons as tie points. An assessment of the mean annual layer thickness in each core section confirms that the new synchronized dating is consistent for all three cores. The data used for the main annual layer counting of the past 7900 years are the DYE- 3, GRIP and NGRIP stable isotope records. As the high accumulation rate at the DYE- 3 drill site makes the seasonal cycle in the DYE-3 stable isotopes very resistant to firn diffusion, an effort has been made to extend the DYE-3 Holocene record. The new syn- chronized dating relies heavily on this record of �75,000 stable isotope samples. The dat- ing of the early Holocene consists of an already established part of GICC05 for GRIP and NGRIP which has now been transferred to the DYE-3 core. GICC05 dates the Younger Dryas termination, as defined from deuterium excess, to 11,703 b2k; 130 years earlier than the previous GRIP dating.

Corotating solar wind streams and recurrent geomagnetic activity: A review

Abstract: [1] Solar wind fast streams emanating from solar coronal holes cause recurrent, moderate intensity geomagnetic activity at Earth. Intense magnetic field regions called Corotating Interaction Regions or CIRs are created by the interaction of fast streams with upstream slow streams. Because of the highly oscillatory nature of the GSM magnetic field z component within CIRs, the resultant magnetic storms are typically only weak to moderate in intensity. CIR-generated magnetic storm main phases of intensity Dst < −100 nT (major storms) are rare. The elongated storm “recovery” phases which are characterized by continuous AE activity that can last for up to 27 days (a solar rotation) are caused by nonlinear Alfven waves within the high streams proper. Magnetic reconnection associated with the southward (GSM) components of the Alfven waves is the solar wind energy transfer mechanism. The acceleration of relativistic electrons occurs during these magnetic storm “recovery” phases. The magnetic reconnection associated with the Alfven waves cause continuous, shallow injections of plasma sheet plasma into the magnetosphere. The asymmetric plasma is unstable to wave (chorus and other modes) growth, a feature central to many theories of electron acceleration. It is noted that the continuous AE activity is not a series of substorm expansion phases. Arguments are also presented why these AE activity intervals are not convection bays. The auroras during these continuous AE activity intervals are less intense than substorm auroras and are global (both dayside and nightside) in nature. Owing to the continuous nature of this activity, it is possible that there is greater average energy input into the magnetosphere/ionosphere system during far declining phases of the solar cycle compared with those during solar maximum. The discontinuities and magnetic decreases (MDs) associated with interplanetary Alfven waves may be important for geomagnetic activity. In conclusion, it will be shown that geomagnetic storms associated with high-speed streams/CIRs will have the same initial, main, and “recovery” phases as those associated with ICME-related magnetic storms but that the interplanetary causes are considerably different.

Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors

Abstract: [1] We describe a new global multiyear satellite fire product designed to meet the needs of the global modeling community. We use the new data set to analyze the global distribution of biomass burning using five different temporal metrics derived from 5 years of high-quality satellite data acquired with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), on board NASA's Terra satellite. The global distributions of fire pixel density, peak month, season length, and annual periodicity are described. As part of our analysis we show, for the first time, the global distribution of the fire radiative power (FRP), a relatively new remotely sensed quantity. We find that low FRP tends to be associated with areas of cropland burning. In the tropics and much of the subtropics, low FRP is also associated with more heavily forested areas, while higher FRP tends to occur in areas of grassland burning. In boreal forests this trend is reversed, with higher FRP occurring in areas of greater tree cover. We next combine 3 years of Terra and Aqua MODIS observations to show that a strong diurnal fire cycle is prevalent at tropical and subtropical latitudes. We also consider the consistency of the fire time series recorded by the two MODIS instruments, and find the month of peak burning and fire season length observed by each to be in good agreement in most areas. However, significant discrepancies with respect to seasonality do occur in some relatively small areas, and are most pronounced in tropical rain forest.

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Abstract: Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and −60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition.

The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic

Abstract: This paper synthesizes our understanding of the Arctic's large-scale freshwater cycle. It combines terrestrial and oceanic observations with insights gained from the ERA-40 reanalysis and land surface and ice-ocean models. Annual mean freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean is dominated by river discharge (38%), inflow through Bering Strait (30%), and net precipitation (24%). Total freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic is dominated by transports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (35%) and via Fram Strait as liquid (26%) and sea ice (25%). All terms are computed relative to a reference salinity of 34.8. Compared to earlier estimates, our budget features larger import of freshwater through Bering Strait and larger liquid phase export through Fram Strait. While there is no reason to expect a steady state, error analysis indicates that the difference between annual mean oceanic inflows and outflows (∼8% of the total inflow) is indistinguishable from zero. Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean has a mean residence time of about a decade. This is understood in that annual freshwater input, while large (∼8500 km3), is an order of magnitude smaller than oceanic freshwater storage of ∼84,000 km3. Freshwater in the atmosphere, as water vapor, has a residence time of about a week. Seasonality in Arctic Ocean freshwater storage is nevertheless highly uncertain, reflecting both sparse hydrographic data and insufficient information on sea ice volume. Uncertainties mask seasonal storage changes forced by freshwater fluxes. Of flux terms with sufficient data for analysis, Fram Strait ice outflow shows the largest interannual variability.

Differences between CME‐driven storms and CIR‐driven storms

Abstract: Twenty one differences between CME-driven geomagnetic storms and CIR-driven geomagnetic storms are tabulated. (CME-driven includes driving by CME sheaths, by magnetic clouds, and by ejecta; CIR-driven includes driving by the associated recurring high-speed streams.) These differences involve the bow shock, the magnetosheath, the radiation belts, the ring current, the aurora, the Earth's plasma sheet, magnetospheric convection, ULF pulsations, spacecraft charging in the magnetosphere, and the saturation of the polar cap potential. CME-driven storms are brief, have denser plasma sheets, have strong ring currents and Dst, have solar energetic particle events, and can produce great auroras and dangerous geomagnetically induced currents; CIR-driven storms are of longer duration, have hotter plasmas and stronger spacecraft charging, and produce high fluxes of relativistic electrons. Further, the magnetosphere is more likely to be preconditioned with dense plasmas prior to CIR-driven storms than it is prior to CME-driven storms. CME-driven storms pose more of a problem for Earth-based electrical systems; CIR-driven storms pose more of a problem for space-based assets.

Limitations in the enhancement of visible light absorption due to mixing state

Abstract: [1] Absorption by light-absorbing carbon (LAC) particles increases when the carbon is mixed with other material, and this change affects climate forcing. We investigate this increase theoretically over a realistic range of particle sizes. Perfect mixing at the molecular level often overestimates absorption. Assuming that LAC is coated by a concentric shell of weakly absorbing material, we calculate absorption by a range of realistic particle sizes and identify regimes in which absorption behaves similarly. We provide fits to amplification in five regions: (1) small cores and (2) intermediate cores, both with large shells; (3) small to intermediate cores with intermediate shells; (4) cores with growing shells; and (5) intermediate to large cores with large shells. Amplification in region 1 is highest but is physically implausible. Amplification in region 5 is constant at about 1.9 and represents an asymptote for particles with broad size distributions. Because absorption by aggregates is amplified by about 1.3 above spherical particles, and that factor is lost when particles are coated, we suggest that absorption by aged aerosol is about 1.5 times greater than that of fresh aerosol. The rate at which particles acquire sufficient coating to increase their original diameter by 60% is important in determining total absorption during their atmospheric lifetimes. Fitted amplification factors are not very sensitive to assumed refractive index of LAC and can be used even in simple models.

Fate of rising methane bubbles in stratified waters: How much methane reaches the atmosphere?

Abstract: There is growing concern about the transfer of methane originating from water bodies to the atmosphere. Methane from sediments can reach the atmosphere directly via bubbles or indirectly via vertical turbulent transport. This work quantifies methane gas bubble dissolution using a combination of bubble modeling and acoustic observations of rising bubbles to determine what fraction of the methane transported by bubbles will reach the atmosphere. The bubble model predicts the evolving bubble size, gas composition, and rise distance and is suitable for almost all aquatic environments. The model was validated using methane and argon bubble dissolution measurements obtained from the literature for deep, oxic, saline water with excellent results. Methane bubbles from within the hydrate stability zone (typically below ∼500 m water depth in the ocean) are believed to form an outer hydrate rim. To explain the subsequent slow dissolution, a model calibration was performed using bubble dissolution data from the literature measured within the hydrate stability zone. The calibrated model explains the impressively tall flares (>1300 m) observed in the hydrate stability zone of the Black Sea. This study suggests that only a small amount of methane reaches the surface at active seep sites in the Black Sea, and this only from very shallow water areas (<100 m). Clearly, the Black Sea and the ocean are rather effective barriers against the transfer of bubble methane to the atmosphere, although substantial amounts of methane may reach the surface in shallow lakes and reservoirs.

A study of the seismic noise from its long-range correlation properties

Abstract: We study the origin of the background seismic noise averaged over long time by cross correlating of the vertical component of motion, which were first normalized by 1-bit coding. We use 1 year of recording at several stations of networks located in North America, western Europe, and Tanzania. We measure normalized amplitudes of Rayleigh waves reconstructed from correlation for all available station to station paths within the networks for positive and negative correlation times to determine the seasonally averaged azimuthal distribution of normalized background energy flow (NBEF) through the networks. We perform the analysis for the two spectral bands corresponding to the primary (10–20 s) and secondary (5–10 s) microseism and also for the 20–40 s band. The direction of the NBEF for the strongest spectral peak between 5 and 10 s is found to be very stable in time with signal mostly coming from the coastline, confirming that the secondary microseism is generated by the nonlinear interaction of the ocean swell with the coast. At the same time, the NBEF in the band of the primary microseism (10–20 s) has a very clear seasonal variability very similar to the behavior of the long-period (20–40 s) noise. This suggests that contrary to the secondary microseism, the primary microseism is not produced by a direct effect of the swell incident on coastlines but rather by the same process that generates the longer-period noise. By simultaneously analyzing networks in California, eastern United States, Europe, and Tanzania we are able to identify main source regions of the 10–20 s noise. They are located in the northern Atlantic and in the northern Pacific during the winter and in the Indian Ocean and in southern Pacific during the summer. These distributions of sources share a great similarity with the map of average ocean wave height map obtained by TOPEX-Poseidon. This suggests that the seismic noise for periods larger than 10 s is clearly related to ocean wave activity in deep water. The mechanism of its generation is likely to be similar to the one proposed for larger periods, namely, infragravity ocean waves.

Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia

Abstract: [1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 116 meteorological stations in central and south Asia. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature extremes indicate warming of both the cold tail and the warm tail of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature between 1961 and 2000. For precipitation, most regional indices of wet extremes show little change in this period as a result of low spatial trend coherence with mixed positive and negative station trends. Relative to the changes in the total amounts, there is a slight indication of disproportionate changes in the precipitation extremes. Stations with near-complete data for the longer period of 1901–2000 suggest that the recent trends in extremes of minimum temperature are consistent with long-term trends, whereas the recent trends in extremes of maximum temperature are part of multidecadal climate variability.

Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Abstract: Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

Global vegetation phenology from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): Evaluation of global patterns and comparison with in situ measurements

Abstract: [1] In the last two decades the availability of global remote sensing data sets has provided a new means of studying global patterns and dynamics in vegetation. The vast majority of previous work in this domain has used data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, which until recently was the primary source of global land remote sensing data. In recent years, however, a number of new remote sensing data sources have become available that have significantly improved the capability of remote sensing to monitor global ecosystem dynamics. In this paper, we describe recent results using data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to study global vegetation phenology. Using a novel new method based on fitting piecewise logistic models to time series data from MODIS, key transition dates in the annual cycle(s) of vegetation growth can be estimated in an ecologically realistic fashion. Using this method we have produced global maps of seven phenological metrics at 1-km spatial resolution for all ecosystems exhibiting identifiable annual phenologies. These metrics include the date of year for (1) the onset of greenness increase (greenup), (2) the onset of greenness maximum (maturity), (3) the onset of greenness decrease (senescence), and (4) the onset of greenness minimum (dormancy). The three remaining metrics are the growing season minimum, maximum, and summation of the enhanced vegetation index derived from MODIS. Comparison of vegetation phenology retrieved from MODIS with in situ measurements shows that these metrics provide realistic estimates of the four transition dates identified above. More generally, the spatial distribution of phenological metrics estimated from MODIS data is qualitatively realistic, and exhibits strong correspondence with temperature patterns in mid- and high-latitude climates, with rainfall seasonality in seasonally dry climates, and with cropping patterns in agricultural areas.