Journal ArticleDOI
Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
Gerald A. Meehl,Julie M. Arblaster,Julie M. Arblaster,John T. Fasullo,Aixue Hu,Kevin E. Trenberth +5 more
TLDR
In some decades, such as 2000-2009, the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series has shown a flat or slightly negative trend as discussed by the authors, which may be linked to La Nina-like conditions.Abstract:
In some decades, such as 2000–2009, the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series has shown a flat or slightly negative trend. A modelling study provides evidence that heat uptake by the deep ocean may cause these hiatus periods and may be linked to La Nina-like conditions.read more
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The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability
Jennifer E. Kay,Clara Deser,Adam S. Phillips,Andrew Mai,Cecile Hannay,Gary Strand,Julie M. Arblaster,Susan C. Bates,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Jim Edwards,Marika M. Holland,Paul J. Kushner,Jean-Francois Lamarque,David M. Lawrence,Keith Lindsay,A Middleton,Ernesto Munoz,Richard Neale,Keith W. Oleson,Lorenzo M. Polvani,Mariana Vertenstein +20 more
TL;DR: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
TL;DR: The results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling, and the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
Matthew H. England,Shayne McGregor,Paul Spence,Gerald A. Meehl,Axel Timmermann,Wenju Cai,Alex Sen Gupta,Michael J. McPhaden,Ariaan Purich,Agus Santoso +9 more
TL;DR: This paper showed that strengthening trade winds caused a reduction in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1 −0.2°C, which is a result of increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.
Journal ArticleDOI
Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends
Kevin Cowtan,Robert G. Way +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record.
Journal ArticleDOI
An apparent hiatus in global warming
TL;DR: For example, in the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Richard H. Moss,Jae Edmonds,Kathy Hibbard,Martin R. Manning,Steven K. Rose,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Timothy R. Carter,Seita Emori,Mikiko Kainuma,Tom Kram,Gerald A. Meehl,John F. B. Mitchell,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Keywan Riahi,Steven J. Smith,Ronald J. Stouffer,Allison M. Thomson,John P. Weyant,Thomas J. Wilbanks +19 more
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
Peter R. Gent,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Leo J. Donner,Marika M. Holland,Elizabeth Hunke,Steve R. Jayne,David M. Lawrence,Richard Neale,Philip J. Rasch,Mariana Vertenstein,Patrick H. Worley,Zong-Liang Yang,Minghua Zhang +12 more
TL;DR: The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community as mentioned in this paper, which describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version.
Journal ArticleDOI
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia
TL;DR: In this article, the success of an ENSO-based statistical rainfall prediction scheme and the influence of ENS on Australia are shown to vary in association with a coherent, interdecadal oscillation in surface temperature over the Pacific Ocean.
Journal ArticleDOI
Earth's Global Energy Budget
TL;DR: In this article, an update on the Earth's global annual mean energy budget in the light of new observations and analyses is provided, with the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) values constrained by Earth Radiation Budget Experiment values from 1985 to 1989, when the TOA values were approximately in balance.
Journal ArticleDOI
Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming
Susan Solomon,Karen H. Rosenlof,Robert W. Portmann,John S. Daniel,Sean M. Davis,Sean M. Davis,Todd Sanford,Todd Sanford,Gian-Kasper Plattner +8 more
TL;DR: It is shown that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change, by acting to slow the rate of warming by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.