Journal ArticleDOI
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II
Robert M. May,Roy M. Anderson +1 more
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TLDR
Consideration is given to the relation between the ecology and evolution of the transmission processes and the overall dynamics, and to the mechanisms that can produce cyclic patterns, or multiple stable states, in the levels of infection in the host population.Abstract:
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.read more
Citations
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Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and disease dynamics: tests of a mathematical model.
TL;DR: The results suggest that heterogeneity among individuals has important effects on the dynamics of disease in insects at several spatial and temporal scales and that heterogeneity in susceptibility may be of general importance in the ecology of disease.
Journal ArticleDOI
Variation in the intraspecific relationship between fish length and intensity of parasitic infection: biological and statistical causes.
TL;DR: The overall mean correlation between fish length and the intensity of parasitic infections derived from 76 different host-parasite species was positive but weak and non-significant, following corrections for sample size.
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatial heterogeneity and the design of immunization programs
Robert M. May,Roy M. Anderson +1 more
TL;DR: An optimum eradication program is defined as that which—treating different groups differently—achieves its aim by immunizing the smallest overall number in each cohort of newborns, and it is shown this optimum program requires fewer immunizations than would be estimated under the (false) assumption that the population is homogeneously mixed.
The rough edges of the conservation genetics paradigm.
TL;DR: Five areas of the paradigm which could be refined are presented, i.e. the ‘rough’ edges of the conservation genetics paradigm, which include evidence that inbreeding depression may be a genotype‐specific phenomenon, rather than a population parameter, and the need to integrate ecological and genetic approaches to the conservation of biodiversity.
Journal ArticleDOI
A general theory for the evolutionary dynamics of virulence.
Troy Day,Stephen R. Proulx +1 more
TL;DR: A general theory similar to that of quantitative genetics in evolutionary biology that allows for the easy construction of models that include both within‐host mutation as well as superinfection and that is capable of predicting both the short‐ and long‐term evolution of virulence is presented.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.