Journal ArticleDOI
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II
Robert M. May,Roy M. Anderson +1 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
Consideration is given to the relation between the ecology and evolution of the transmission processes and the overall dynamics, and to the mechanisms that can produce cyclic patterns, or multiple stable states, in the levels of infection in the host population.Abstract:
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics for influenza disease in a heterogenous environment
TL;DR: An SIRS influenza model with general incidence rate to describe disease transmission in a heterogenous environment is proposed and it is found that the spatial heterogeneity can enhance the infectious risk of the influenza and thus, in order to control the spread, people should change their travelling plan and stay at home to reduce the value of the diffusion coefficient.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics.
Lauren J. Cator,Leah R. Johnson,Erin A. Mordecai,Fadoua El Moustaid,Thomas R. C. Smallwood,Shannon L. LaDeau,Michael A. Johansson,Peter J. Hudson,Mike Boots,Matthew B. Thomas,Alison G. Power,Samraat Pawar +11 more
TL;DR: It is argued that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world.
Journal ArticleDOI
Depression of host population abundance by direct life cycle macroparasites
TL;DR: Theoretical predictions are discussed in light of (a) the use of pathogens as biological control agents of pest species and (b) the effects of disease control on host population growth.
Journal ArticleDOI
Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect
TL;DR: Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation and the underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect.
Book ChapterDOI
Temporal Aspects of the Development of Root Disease Epidemics
TL;DR: The roles of primary and secondary infection, of root growth and of survival of inoculum as well as antagonism by other microorganisms are examined and the practical constraints imposed on epidemiological analyses by the shortage of data are considered.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.