Journal ArticleDOI
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II
Robert M. May,Roy M. Anderson +1 more
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TLDR
Consideration is given to the relation between the ecology and evolution of the transmission processes and the overall dynamics, and to the mechanisms that can produce cyclic patterns, or multiple stable states, in the levels of infection in the host population.Abstract:
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.read more
Citations
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An evolutionary epidemiological mechanism, with applications to type A influenza.
TL;DR: A model that describes an evolutionary epidemiological mechanism and applies this model to the epidemiology of type A influenza is developed, showing how the nondimensional parameter epsilon = m gamma N/r2 may be estimated from four types of data.
Journal ArticleDOI
The effect of cross-immunity and seasonal forcing in a multi-strain epidemic model
Masashi Kamo,Akira Sasaki +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the bifurcation patterns of the two-strain SIR model with seasonal forcing in transmission rate, and they found that the period doubling bifurbation occurs as the strength of seasonal forcing is increased.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of methods for estimating mortality due to parasites in wild fish populations
TL;DR: Six methods are described for detecting mortality due to parasitic infections in natural fish populations, indicative of whether or not significant parasite-related mortality may be occurring, and in some cases provide an estimate of its probable magnitude in terms of the total host mortality rate.
Journal ArticleDOI
Associations between parasitism and host genotype in natural populations of Daphnia (Crustacea : Cladocera)
Tom J. Little,Dieter Ebert +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, allozymes were used to search for associations between multi-locus host genotypes (clones) and parasitism within 25 cyclically parthenogenetic populations of Daphnia.
Journal ArticleDOI
Host-parasite population dynamics under combined frequency-and density-dependent transmission
TL;DR: In systems where density-dependent transmission is normally assumed de facto, it is shown that parasite-driven extinction can occur if a small amount of transmission occurs through density-independent contacts, and the threshold for parasite persistence is lowered.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.