Journal ArticleDOI
Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II
Robert M. May,Roy M. Anderson +1 more
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TLDR
Consideration is given to the relation between the ecology and evolution of the transmission processes and the overall dynamics, and to the mechanisms that can produce cyclic patterns, or multiple stable states, in the levels of infection in the host population.Abstract:
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.read more
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Culling-induced changes in badger (Meles meles) behaviour, social organisation and the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis.
TL;DR: It is hypothesised that the social disruption caused by culling may not only increase direct contact and thus disease transmission between surviving badgers, but may also increase social stress within the surviving population, causing immunosuppression and enhancing the expression of disease.
Journal ArticleDOI
The population dynamical implications of covert infections in host–microparasite interactions
TL;DR: The results demonstrate that relatively subtle pathogen effects such as covert infections can have important and novel dynamical impacts on the host–pathogen interaction and suggests that the effects of covert infection are likely to be system-specific and information may be required on a system-by-system basis in order to make predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Does infectious disease influence the efficacy of marine protected areas? A theoretical framework
TL;DR: A simple deterministic model of microparasitic infection in a fishery with a reserve is used to investigate equilibrium yield and parasite prevalence inside and outside the reserve as a function of three control variables: the proportion of habitat inside the reserve, fishing mortality and the rate of interchange between the stock and the reserve.
Journal ArticleDOI
The contribution of viral genotype to plasma viral set-point in HIV infection.
Emma B. Hodcroft,Jarrod D. Hadfield,Esther Fearnhill,Andrew N. Phillips,David Dunn,Siobhan O'Shea,Deenan Pillay,Andrew J. Leigh Brown +7 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load, which is applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms.
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The spreading fronts of an infective environment in a man–environment–man epidemic model
TL;DR: In this paper, a reaction diffusion model is investigated to understand infective environments in a man-environment-man epidemic model, and sufficient conditions for the bacteria to vanish or spread are given.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
TL;DR: In this article, the authors considered the problem of finding a causal factor which appears to be adequate to account for the magnitude of the frequent epidemics of disease which visit almost every population.
A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
TL;DR: The present communication discussion will be limited to the case in which all members of the community are initially equally susceptible to the disease, and it will be further assumed that complete immunity is conferred by a single infection.