Rates of violence in patients classified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments
TLDR
After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation and assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base.Abstract:
Background
Rates of violence in persons identified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments (SRAIs) are uncertain and frequently unreported by validation studies.
Aims
To analyse the variation in rates of violence in individuals identified as high risk by SRAIs.
Method
A systematic search of databases (1995-2011) was conducted for studies on nine widely used assessment tools. Where violence rates in high-risk groups were not published, these were requested from study authors. Rate information was extracted, and binomial logistic regression was used to study heterogeneity.
Results
Information was collected on 13 045 participants in 57 samples from 47 independent studies. Annualised rates of violence in individuals classified as high risk varied both across and within instruments. Rates were elevated when population rates of violence were higher, when a structured professional judgement instrument was used and when there was a lower proportion of men in a study.
Conclusions
After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation. In the absence of information on local base rates, assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base. This underscores the need for caution when such risk estimates are used to influence decisions related to individual liberty and public safety.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
International Perspectives on the practical application of violence risk assessment : a global survey of 44 countries
Jay Singh,Sarah L. Desmarais,Cristina Hurducas,Karin Arbach-Lucioni,Carolina Condemarin,Kimberlie Dean,Michael Doyle,Jorge Oscar Folino,Verónica Godoy-Cervera,Martin Grann,Robyn Mei Yee Ho,Matthew Large,Louise Hjort Nielsen,Thierry H. Pham,Maria Franscisca Rebocho,Kim A. Reeves,Martin Rettenberger,Corine de Ruiter,Katharina Seewald,Randy K. Otto +19 more
TL;DR: It is suggested that violence risk assessment is a global phenomenon, as is the use of instruments to assist in this task, and improved feedback following risk assessments and the development of risk management plans could improve the efficacy of health services.
Journal ArticleDOI
The American Psychiatric Association Practice Guidelines for the Psychiatric Evaluation of Adults
Joel J. Silverman,Marc Galanter,Maga Jackson-Triche,Douglas G. Jacobs,James W. Lomax,Michelle Riba,Lowell Tong,Katherine E. Watkins,Laura J. Fochtmann,Richard S. Rhoads,Joel Yager +10 more
TL;DR: These Practice Guidelines for the Psychiatric Evaluation of Adults mark a transition in the American Psychiatric Association’s Practice Guidelines by using a “snowball” survey methodology to identify experts on psychiatric evaluation and solicit their input on aspects of the psychiatric evaluation that they saw as likely to improve specific patient outcomes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools
TL;DR: It is found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)—they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership.
Journal ArticleDOI
European Psychiatric Association (EPA) guidance on forensic psychiatry: evidence based assessment and treatment of mentally disordered offenders
Birgit Völlm,Martin Clarke,Vicenç Tort Herrando,Allan Seppänen,Paweł Gosek,Janusz Heitzman,Erik Bulten +6 more
TL;DR: It is found that the evidence base for forensic-psychiatric practice is weak though there is some evidence to suggest that psychiatric care produces better outcomes than criminal justice detention only.
Journal ArticleDOI
Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool
Seena Fazel,Zheng Chang,Zheng Chang,Thomas R. Fanshawe,Niklas Långström,Paul Lichtenstein,Henrik Larsson,Henrik Larsson,Susan Mallett +8 more
TL;DR: A prediction model in a Swedish prison population that can assist with decision making on release by identifying those who are at low risk of future violent offending, and those at high risk of violent reoffending who might benefit from drug and alcohol treatment is developed.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Forensic Risk Assessment: A Metareview
Jay Singh,Seena Fazel +1 more
TL;DR: The quality and consistency of findings in these areas varied considerably, and the authors suggest a standardization of review reporting with particular emphasis on methodological consistency.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evaluation of a National Prison-based Treatment Program for Sexual Offenders in England and Wales
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Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing risk for violence in adolescents who have sexually offended: A comparison of the J-SOAP-II, J-SORRAT-II, and SAVRY.
Jodi L. Viljoen,Mario J. Scalora,Lorraine Elizabeth Cuadra,Shannon Bader,Veronica Chavez,Daniel Ullman,Lisa Lawrence +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the ability of the Juvenile Sexual Offense Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II(J-SOAP-II) to predict violent behavior in 169 male youth who were admitted to a residential adolescent sex offender program.
Journal ArticleDOI
Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Schizophrenia and Other Psychiatric Disorders: A Systematic Review of the Validity, Reliability, and Item Content of 10 Available Instruments
TL;DR: There is currently little direct evidence for their utility in individuals with schizophrenia, and there is large variation in item content between instruments, and further research is necessary to determine whether the inclusion of alternative factors could improve risk assessment.
Journal ArticleDOI
The HCR‐20 in personality disordered female offenders: a comparison with a matched sample of males
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the predictive validity of the HCR-20 in a sample of 42 female patients admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital and found that the inter-rater reliability was good for both female and male patients.