Journal ArticleDOI
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
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This article showed that the uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes are mainly due to internal climate variability and that model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.Abstract:
There are large uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes. This study shows that the uncertainties are mainly due to internal climate variability. However, model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire
Matthias M. Boer,Rachael H. Nolan,Víctor Resco de Dios,Hamish Clarke,Hamish Clarke,Owen Price,Ross A. Bradstock +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.
Journal ArticleDOI
The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models to quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variance and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty.
Journal ArticleDOI
Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies
TL;DR: Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal, and climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5
TL;DR: An urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model is used that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas, to assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario.
Journal ArticleDOI
Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of anthropogenic climate change in large-scale circulation anomalies was assessed by using a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, and it was shown that anthropogenic influence is estimated to increase the probability of the occurrence of anomalous atmospheric pattern similar to that in January 2013 by 45% (27%).
References
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BookDOI
Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
TL;DR: In this paper, a special report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Journal ArticleDOI
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
Peter R. Gent,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Leo J. Donner,Marika M. Holland,Elizabeth Hunke,Steve R. Jayne,David M. Lawrence,Richard Neale,Philip J. Rasch,Mariana Vertenstein,Patrick H. Worley,Zong-Liang Yang,Minghua Zhang +12 more
TL;DR: The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community as mentioned in this paper, which describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version.
Book
Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a case study for managing the risks from climate extremes and disasters at the local level and national systems for managing risks at the international level and integration across scales.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Ed Hawkins,Rowan Sutton +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a suite of climate models are used to predict changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, and it is shown that the uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by model uncertainty and internal variability that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science.
Journal ArticleDOI
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
TL;DR: It is shown that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.
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