Journal ArticleDOI
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
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This article showed that the uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes are mainly due to internal climate variability and that model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.Abstract:
There are large uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes. This study shows that the uncertainties are mainly due to internal climate variability. However, model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Enhanced precipitation variability decreases grass- and increases shrub-productivity
TL;DR: The results indicated that total productivity and that of grasses declined in response to increased precipitation variability, although shrubs benefited, suggesting a potential shift from grassland to shrubland in the future, with large consequences for the supply of ecosystem services.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates
Flavio Lehner,Sloan Coats,Thomas F. Stocker,Thomas F. Stocker,Angeline G. Pendergrass,Benjamin M. Sanderson,Christoph C. Raible,Christoph C. Raible,Jason E. Smerdon +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures.
Journal ArticleDOI
Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications*
TL;DR: In this paper, the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963-2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework.
Journal ArticleDOI
Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities
Jana Sillmann,Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir,Noel Keenlyside,Nathalie Schaller,Lisa V. Alexander,Gabriele C. Hegerl,Sonia I. Seneviratne,Robert Vautard,Xuebin Zhang,Francis W. Zwiers +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.
TL;DR: It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons, and events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.
References
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BookDOI
Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
TL;DR: In this paper, a special report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Journal ArticleDOI
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
Peter R. Gent,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Leo J. Donner,Marika M. Holland,Elizabeth Hunke,Steve R. Jayne,David M. Lawrence,Richard Neale,Philip J. Rasch,Mariana Vertenstein,Patrick H. Worley,Zong-Liang Yang,Minghua Zhang +12 more
TL;DR: The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community as mentioned in this paper, which describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version.
Book
Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a case study for managing the risks from climate extremes and disasters at the local level and national systems for managing risks at the international level and integration across scales.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Ed Hawkins,Rowan Sutton +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a suite of climate models are used to predict changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, and it is shown that the uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by model uncertainty and internal variability that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science.
Journal ArticleDOI
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
TL;DR: It is shown that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.
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