Towards an Integrated Framework for Assessing the Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change
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TLDR
A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve the ability to respond to this emerging crisis.Abstract:
[Extract] Global climate change threatens global biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being, with thousands of publications demonstrating impacts across a wide diversity of taxonomic groups, ecosystems, economics, and social structure. A review by Hughes [1] identified many of the ways that organisms may be affected by and/or respond to climate change. Since then, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of case studies attesting to ecological impacts [2], prompting several recent reviews on the subject (e.g., [3–6]). Several global meta-analyses confirm the pervasiveness of the global climate change "fingerprint" across continents, ecosystems, processes, and species [7–9]. Some studies have predicted increasingly severe future impacts with potentially high extinction rates in natural systems around the world [10,11]. Responding to this threat will require a concerted, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale, multi-taxon research effort that improves our predictive capacity to identify and prioritise vulnerable species in order to inform governments of the seriousness of the threat and to facilitate conservation adaptation and management [12,13].
If we are to minimise global biodiversity loss, we need significant decreases in global emissions to be combined with environmental management that is guided by sensible prioritisation of relative vulnerability. That is, we need to determine which species, habitats, and ecosystems will be most vulnerable, exactly what aspects of their ecological and evolutionary biology determine their vulnerability, and what we can do about managing this vulnerability and minimising the realised impacts. There is an emerging literature on specific traits that promote vulnerability under climate change (e.g., thermal tolerance [14]) as well as a broad literature on the traits that influence species' vulnerability generally (e.g., review by [15]). Less is known about the various mechanisms for either ecological or evolutionary adaptation to climate change, although it is increasingly recognised as a vital component of assessing vulnerability [16,17].read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change and evolutionary adaptation
Ary A. Hoffmann,Carla M. Sgrò +1 more
TL;DR: The challenges to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being
Gretta T. Pecl,Miguel B. Araújo,Miguel B. Araújo,Miguel B. Araújo,Johann D. Bell,Johann D. Bell,Julia L. Blanchard,Timothy C. Bonebrake,I-Ching Chen,Timothy Clark,Robert K. Colwell,Finn Danielsen,Birgitta Evengård,Lorena Falconi,Simon Ferrier,Stewart Frusher,Raquel A. Garcia,Raquel A. Garcia,Roger Griffis,Alistair J. Hobday,Charlene Janion-Scheepers,Marta A. Jarzyna,Sarah Jennings,Sarah Jennings,Jonathan Lenoir,Hlif I. Linnetved,Victoria Y. Martin,Phillipa C. McCormack,Jan McDonald,Jan McDonald,Nicola J. Mitchell,Tero Mustonen,John M. Pandolfi,Nathalie Pettorelli,Ekaterina Popova,Sharon A. Robinson,Brett R. Scheffers,Justine D. Shaw,Cascade J. B. Sorte,Jan M. Strugnell,Jan M. Strugnell,Jennifer M. Sunday,Mao-Ning Tuanmu,Adriana Vergés,Cecilia Villanueva,Thomas Wernberg,Erik Wapstra,Stephen E. Williams +47 more
TL;DR: The negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks, and feedbacks on climate itself are documented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
Terence P. Dawson,Stephen T. Jackson,Joanna Isobel House,Iain Colin Prentice,Iain Colin Prentice,Iain Colin Prentice,Georgina M. Mace +6 more
TL;DR: This work introduces a framework that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of conservation responses, and reviews the insights that different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation
Raymond B. Huey,Michael R. Kearney,Andrew K. Krockenberger,Joseph A. M. Holtum,Mellissa Jess,Stephen E. Williams +5 more
TL;DR: It is concluded that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests and their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions, as genetic and selective data are scant.
Journal ArticleDOI
Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation
Jennifer M. Sunday,Jennifer M. Sunday,Amanda E. Bates,Amanda E. Bates,Michael R. Kearney,Robert K. Colwell,Robert K. Colwell,Nicholas K. Dulvy,John T. Longino,Raymond B. Huey +9 more
TL;DR: It is found that most terrestrial ectotherms are insufficiently tolerant of high temperatures to survive the warmest potential body temperatures in exposed habitats and must therefore thermoregulate by using shade, burrows, or evaporative cooling and show why heat-tolerance limits are relatively invariant in comparison with cold limits.
References
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Book
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Gian-Reto Walther,Eric Post,Peter Convey,Annette Menzel,Camille Parmesan,Trevor J. C. Beebee,Jean-Marc Fromentin,Ove Hoegh-Guldberg,Franz Bairlein +8 more
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
Book
Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change
TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
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