Water scarcity: Fact or fiction?

TLDR: In this article, the authors reviewed water scarcity indicators and global assessments based on these indicators and found that water is definitely physically scarce in densely populated arid areas, Central and West Asia, and North Africa, with projected availabilities of less than 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year.

About: This article is published in Agricultural Water Management.The article was published on 2006-02-24 and is currently open access. It has received 1107 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Water scarcity & Scarcity.

Figures

Figure 2. Water stress analysis based on the criticality ratio (Source: Alcamo et al. 2000).

Figure 3. IWMI Water Scarcity Map (Source: IWMI, 2000).

Figure 6: Example of water scarcity analysis for Southern and Eastern Africa (Source: Meigh et al. 1998).

Figure 4. Water Stress as human use of renewable water resources, after accounting for environmental water requirements. (Source: Smakthin et al. 2004).

Figure 5. Water scarcity based on the Water Poverty Index at national scale(Source: Sullivan et al. 2000)

Table 1. List of countries in Africa and Asia having renewable water resources below the calculated threshold of 1500 m3/capita/year by the year 2030.

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What contributions have the authors mentioned in the paper "Water scarcity: fact or fiction?" ?

The paper reviews water scarcity indicators and global assessments based on these indicators. As discussed in this paper, it turns out to be difficult to assess whether water is truly scarce in the physical sense ( a supply problem ) or whether it is available but should be used better ( a demand problem ). This paper discusses the many dimensions of water scarcity in an effort to determine whether water scarcity is fact or fiction. When a large number of people in an area are water insecure for a significant period of time, then the authors can call that area water scarce. 

Q2. What does the relative scarcity of a resource mean to the user?

The relative scarcity of a resource also determines its value to the user, increasing relative scarcity translates into increasing water values. 

Q3. What is the tangible proposal that has come out of the water scarcity movement?

The most tangible proposals that have come out of this direction are: (a) to involve users more in the management of water, often through the establishment of forms of water user associations; (b) to price water and/or make it a trade-able commodity; and (c) to establish river basin authorities that integrate the usually fragmented government responsibilities for water into a single authority responsible for a hydrographically defined area, the river basin. 

Q4. How many cubic meters per year did people have in the North-Africa belt?

According to Wallace (2000), in 2000, people had less than a thousand cubic meters per year in the North-Africa belt (from Morocco to Egypt and including Sudan), and between one and two thousand in the Middle East and Southern Africa. 

Q5. What is the obvious conclusion from these analyses?

The most obvious conclusion from these analyses is that water will be scarce in areas with low rainfall and relatively high population density. 

Q6. What is the logic underpinning this choice?

The logic underpinning this choice is straightforward: if the authors know how much water is needed to satisfy a person’s needs then the water availability per person can serve as a measure of scarcity. 

Q7. How many litres of water does a person need to produce food?

Renault and Wallender (2000) estimate that a typical diet of a person from USA requires about 5,400 litres of water in the form of evapotranspiration per day. 

Q8. What is the definition of the term “soft path for water”?

Web site www.cropscience.org.au12Gleick (2002, 2003) discusses what he calls17 the “soft path for water” – a term that hails from the energy sector and that in essence focuses on the improvement of the overall productivity of water rather than endlessly seeking new supplies – as the appropriate response to water scarcity. 

Q9. What is the obvious manifestation of a water crisis?

There is much talk of a water crisis, of which the most obvious manifestation is that 1.2 billion people lack access to safe and affordable water for their domestic use (WHO 2003). 

Q10. What are the types of conflicts that arise when water availability is decreasing?

Typical conflicts are those between rapidly growing urban areas that claim water from agriculture, for example, or conflicts between agriculture and the environment as agriculture seeks to expand or looks for new resources to replace those given up to urban areas. 

Q11. What is the important question in the current debate on water scarcity?

The most important question in the current debate on water scarcity is not so much whether it is true or not, whether the authors are going to run out of water or not, whether water scarcity is fact or fiction, but whether this debate will help increase water productivity. 

Q12. How many people will be living in countries facing high water stress by 2025?

Alcamo et al.(1997, 1999), using the Water Gap model and criticality ratio and their assumptions on how water use will grow with income, have estimated that 4 billion people, or more than half of the world’s population, will be living in countries facing high water stress (criticality ratio greater than 40 percent) by 2025, see Figure 2. 

Q13. How much water does it take to grow food?

On average, it takes roughly seventy6 times more water to grow food for people than people use directly for domestic purposes7 (see also SIWI and IWMI 2004). 

Q14. How do they develop this linear economic-engineering model?

Ohlsson and Molle attempt to develop this linear economic-engineering model further, through a deeper understanding of the socio-economic context in which water use takes place and the political economy of water resources development. 

Q15. What is the widely used indicator?

The most widely used indicator, the Falkenmark Indicator, is popular because it is easy to apply and understand but it does not help to explain the true nature of water scarcity.