Showing papers on "Climate change published in 1997"

Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations

Abstract: General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant consequences for the global climate. What is less clear is the extent to which local (s...

Modeling the Exchanges of Energy, Water, and Carbon Between Continents and the Atmosphere

Abstract: Atmospheric general circulation models used for climate simulation and weather forecasting require the fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor, and momentum across the land-atmosphere interface to be specified. These fluxes are calculated by submodels called land surface parameterizations. Over the last 20 years, these parameterizations have evolved from simple, unrealistic schemes into credible representations of the global soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer system as advances in plant physiological and hydrological research, advances in satellite data interpretation, and the results of large-scale field experiments have been exploited. Some modern schemes incorporate biogeochemical and ecological knowledge and, when coupled with advanced climate and ocean models, will be capable of modeling the biological and physical responses of the Earth system to global change, for example, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 10 -3- to 105-year time resolution

Abstract: The 3-km-long Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core presents a 100,000 +- year detailed oxygen isotope profile covering almost a full glacial-interglacial cycle. Measuranents of isotopic fluctuations in snow, frost, and atmospheric water vapor samples collected during summer field seasons (up to 20%0) are compatible with the large and abrupt 80/160 changes observed in accumulated tim. Snow pit 1580 profiles from the GISP2 summit area, however, show rapid smoothing of the 180/160 signal near the surface. Beyond about 2-m depth the smoothedi5180 signal is fairly well preserved and can be interpreted in terms of average local weather conditions and climate. The longer climate fluctuations also have regional and often global significance. In the older part of the record, corresponding to marine isotope stages (MIS) 5a to 5d, the effect of orbital climate forcing via the 19- and 23-kyr precession cycles and the 41-kyr obliquity cycle is obvious. From the end ofMIS 5a, at about 75,000 years B.P., till the end of the glacial at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition, at 11,650 years B.P., the O180/160 record shows frequent, rapid switches between intermediate interstadial and low stadial values. Fourier spectra of the oscillations that are superimposed on the orbitally induced changes contain a strong periodicity at 1.5 kyr, a broad peak at 4.0 kyr, and additional shorter periods. Detailed comparison of the GISP2 180/160 record with the Vostok, Antarctica, 15D record; Pacific Ocean foraminiferal 180/160; Grande Pile, France, tree pollen; and insolation indicates that a counterpart to many of the rapid 180/160 fluctuations of GISP2 can be found in the other records, and that the GISP2 isotopic changes clearly are the local expression of climate changes of worldwide extent. Correlation of events on the independent GISP2 and SPECMAP time scales for the interval 10,000-50,000 years B.P. shows excellent chronometric agreement, except possibly for the event labeled 3.1. The glacial to interglacial transition evidently started simultaneously in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but its development and its expression in Greenland isotopes was later suppressed by the influence of meltwater, especially from the Barents Sea ice sheet, on deep water formation and ocean circulation. Meltwaters from different ice sheets bordering the North Atlantic also influenced ocean circulation during the Bolling-Allerod interstadial complex and the Younger Dryas and led to a distinct development of European climate and Greenland 180/160 values. The Holocene interval with long-term stable mean isotopic values contains several fluauations with periods from years to millennia. Dominant is a 6.3-year oscillation with amplitude up to 3 to 4%0. Periodicities of 11 and 210 years, also found in the solar-modulated records of the cosmogenic isotopes 1oBe and 14C, suggest solar processes as the cause of these cycles. Depression of180/160 values (cooling) by volcanic eruptions is observed in stacked GISP21580 records, but the effect is small and not likely to trigger major climate changes.

Major features and forcing of high-latitude northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation using a 110,000-year-long glaciochemical series

Abstract: The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 glaciochemical series (sodium, potassium, ammonium, calcium, magnesium, sulfate, nitrate, and chloride) provides a unique view of the chemistry of the atmosphere and the history of atmospheric circulation over both the high latitudes and mid-low latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Interpretation of this record reveals a diverse array of environmental signatures that include the documentation of anthropogenically derived pollutants, volcanic and biomass burning events, storminess over marine surfaces, continental aridity and biogenic source strength plus information related to the controls on both high- and low-frequency climate events of the last 110,000 years. Climate forcings investigated include changes in insolation of the order of the major orbital cycles that control the long-term behavior of atmospheric circulation patterns through changes in ice volume (sea level), events such as the Heinrich events (massive discharges of icebergs first identified in the marine record) that are found to operate on a 6100-year cycle due largely to the lagged response of ice sheets to changes in insolation and consequent glacier dynamics, and rapid climate change events (massive reorganizations of atmospheric circulation) that are demonstrated to operate on 1450-year cycles. Changes in insolation and associated positive feedbacks related to ice sheets may assist in explaining favorable time periods and controls on the amplitude of massive rapid climate change events. Explanation for the exact timing and global synchroneity of these events is, however, more complicated. Preliminary evidence points to possible solar variability-climate associations for these events and perhaps others that are embedded in our ice-core-derived atmospheric circulation records.

Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios

Abstract: Climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural potential and agricultural risk. Such scenarios should reproduce changes in mean weather characteristics as well as incorporate the changes in climate variability indicated by the global climate model (GCM) used. Recent work on the sensitivity of crop models and climatic extremes has clearly demonstrated that changes in variability can have more profound effects on crop yield and on the probability of extreme weather events than simple changes in the mean values. The construction of climate change scenarios based on spatial regression downscaling and on the use of a local stochastic weather generator is described. Regression downscaling translated the coarse resolution GCM grid-box predictions of climate change to site-specific values. These values were then used to perturb the parameters of the stochastic weather generator in order to simulate site-specific daily weather data. This approach permits the incorporation of changes in the mean and variability of climate in a consistent and computationally inexpensive way. The stochastic weather generator used in this study, LARS-WG, has been validated across Europe and has been shown to perform well in the simulation of different weather statistics, including those climatic extremes relevant to agriculture. The importance of downscaling and the incorporation of climate variability are demonstrated at two European sites where climate change scenarios were constructed using the UK Met. Office high resolution GCM equilibrium and transient experiments.

The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation

Abstract: This study describes a new coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) developed for studies of climate change and results from a hindcast experiment. The model includes various physical and technical improvements relative to an earlier version of the Hadley Centre OAGCM. A coupled spinup process is used to bring the model to equilibrium. Compared to uncoupled spinup methods this is computationally more expensive, but helps to counter climate drift arising from inadequate sampling of short time scale coupled variability when the components are equilibrated separately. Including sea ice advection and enhancing reference surface salinities in high southern latitudes in austral winter to promote bottom water formation during spinup appears to have stabilized the high-latitude drift exhibited in the earlier model’s control run. In the present study, the atmospheric control climate is stable on multi-century time scales with a drift in global average surface air temperature of only +0.016 K/century, despite a small residual drift in the deep ocean. The control climate is an improvement over the earlier model in several respects, notably in its variability on short time scales. Two anomaly runs are presented incorporating estimated forcing changes over the period 1860 to 1990 arising from greenhouse gases alone and from greenhouse gases plus the radiative scattering effect of sulphate aerosols. These allow validation of the model against the instrumental climate record. Inclusion of aerosol forcing gives a significantly better simulation of historical temperature patterns, although comparisons against recent sea ice trends are equivocal. These studies emphasize the potential importance of including additional forcing terms apart from greenhouse gases in climate simulations, and refining estimates of their spatial distribution and magnitude.

Climatic Change at High Elevation Sites: An Overview

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of climatic changes that have been observed during the past century at certain high-elevation sites, and changes in a more distant past documented by a variety of climate-sensitive environmental indicators, such as tree-rings and alpine glaciers, that serve as a measure of the natural variability of climate in mountains over longer time scales. Detailed studies such as those found in this special issue of Climatic Change , as well as those noted in this review, for the mountain regions of the world, advance our understanding in a variety of ways. They are not only helpful to characterize present and past climatological features in the mountainous zones, but they also provide useful information to the climate modeling community. Because of the expected refinements in the physical parameterizations of climate models in coming years, and the probable increase in the spatial resolution of GCMs, the use of appropriate data from high elevation sites will become of increasing importance for model initialization, verification, and intercomparison purposes. The necessity of accurate projections of climate change is paramount to assessing the likely impacts of climate change on mountain biodiversity, hydrology and cryosphere, and on the numerous economic activities which take place in these regions.

UK birds are laying eggs earlier

Abstract: The evidence for global climate change and for its underlying anthropogenic causes is gathering rapidly. Over the past 11 years the active growing season of plants has advanced by roughly 8 days in northern latitudes1. This evidence for increased photosynthetic activity is supported by the positive trend in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2 (ref. 2). The phenology of animal populations should also be affected by climate change, but to date there has been little evidence of this. Here we report that long-term trends in the seasonal distributions of laying dates of birds in the United Kingdom show a tendency towards earlier laying, consistent with the changes reported in growing season.

Glaciochemistry of polar ice cores: A review

Abstract: Human activities have already modified the chemical composition of the natural atmosphere even in very remote regions of the world. The study of chemical parameters stored in solid precipitation and accumulated on polar ice sheets over the last several hundred thousand years provides a unique tool for obtaining information on the composition of the preindustrial atmosphere and its natural variability over the past. This paper deals with the chemistry of polar ice focused on the soluble mineral (Na+, NH4+, K+, Ca++, Mg++, H+, F−, Cl−, NO3−, SO4−−, and H2O2) and organic (methanesulfonate (CH3SO3−), formate (HCOO−), acetate (CH3COO−), and formaldehyde (HCHO)) species and their interpretation in terms of past atmospheric composition (aerosols and water soluble gaseous species). We discuss ice core dating, the difficulties connected with trace measurements, and the significance of the ionic composition of snow. We examine temporal (from the last decades back to the last climatic cycle) and spatial (including examples from coastal as well as central areas of Greenland and Antarctica) variations in the ionic budget of the precipitation and evaluate ice core studies in terms of the chemical composition of our past atmosphere. We review (1) how Greenland and Antarctic ice cores that span the last few centuries have provided information on the impact of human activities and (2) how the chemistry of deep ice cores provides information on various past natural phenomena such as climatic variations (glacial-interglacial changes, El Nino), volcanic eruptions, and large boreal forest fires.

Effect of orogeny, plate motion and land-sea distribution on Eurasian climate change over the past 30 million years

Abstract: The Eurasian climates of today, 10 million and 3O million years ago are simulated using an atmospheric general circulation model that incorporates realistic continental geography and epicontinental sea distributions. The resulting climates compare well with various palaeoclimate records. The retreat of the Paratethys–an epicontinental sea–shifts the central Asian climate from temperate to continental conditions, and plays as important a role as uplift of the Himalayan/Tibetan plateau in driving the Asian monsoon changes.

Climate change, hurricanes and tropical storms, and rising sea level in coastal wetlands

Abstract: Global climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns, oceanic and atmospheric circulation, rate of rising sea level, and the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms. The magnitude of these projected physical changes and their subsequent impacts on coastal wetlands will vary regionally. Coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States have naturally evolved under a regime of rising sea level and specific patterns of hurricane frequency, intensity, and timing. A review of known ecological effects of tropical storms and hurricanes indicates that storm timing, frequency, and intensity can alter coastal wetland hydrology, geomorphology, biotic structure, energetics, and nutrient cycling. Research conducted to examine the impacts of Hurricane Hugo on colonial waterbirds highlights the importance of long-term studies for identifying complex interactions that may otherwise be dismissed as stochastic processes. Rising sea level and even modest changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to have substantial impacts on coastal wetland patterns and processes. Persistence of coastal wetlands will be determined by the interactions of climate and anthropogenic effects, especially how humans respond to rising sea level and how further human encroachment on coastal wetlands affects resource exploitation, pollution, and water use. Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms will likely affect biotic functions (e.g., community structure, natural selection, extinction rates, and biodiversity) as well as underlying processes such as nutrient cycling and primary and secondary productivity. Reliable predictions of global-change impacts on coastal wetlands will require better understanding of the linkages among terrestrial, aquatic, wetland, atmospheric, oceanic, and human components. Developing this comprehensive understanding of the ecological ramifications of global change will necessitate close coordination among scientists from multiple disciplines and a balanced mixture of appropriate scientific approaches. For example, insights may be gained through the careful design and implementation of broad-scale comparative studies that incorporate salient patterns and processes, including treatment of anthropogenic influences. Well-designed, broad-scale comparative studies could serve as the scientific framework for developing relevant and focused long-term ecological research, monitoring programs, experiments, and modeling studies. Two conceptual models of broad-scale comparative research for assessing ecological responses to climate change are presented: utilizing space-for-time substitution coupled with long-term studies to assess impacts of rising sea level and disturbance on coastal wetlands, and utilizing the moisture-continuum model for assessing the effects of global change and associated shifts in moisture regimes on wetland ecosystems. Increased understanding of climate change will require concerted scientific efforts aimed at facilitating interdisciplinary research, enhancing data and information management, and developing new funding strategies.

Influence of CO2 emission rates on the stability of the thermohaline circulation

Abstract: Present estimates of the future oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and calculations of CO2-emission scenarios1 are based on the assumption that the natural carbon cycle is in steady state. But it iswell known from palaeoclimate records2,3,4,5 and modelling studies6,7,8,9 that the climate system has more than one equilibrium state, and that perturbations can trigger transitions between them. Anticipated future changes in today's climate system due to human activities have the potential to weaken the thermohaline circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean10,11,12, which would greatly modify estimates of future oceanic CO2 uptake13. Here we use a simple coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to show that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation is not only sensitive to the final atmospheric CO2 concentration attained, but also depends on the rate of change of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. A modelled increase to 750 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) CO2 within 100 years (corresponding approximately to a continuation of today's growth rate) leads to a permanent shut-down of the thermohaline circulation. If the final atmospheric concentration of 750 p.p.m.v. CO2 is attained more slowly, the thermohaline circulation simply slows down. The reason for this rate-sensitive response of the climate system lies with the transfer of buoyancy in the form of heat and fresh water from the uppermost layers of the ocean into the deep waters below. This sensitivity of the simulated thermohaline circulation to the rate ofchange of atmospheric CO2 concentration has potentially important implications for the choice of future CO2-emission scenarios1.

The relationship between land-use change and climate change

Abstract: Land-use change is related to climate change as both a causal factor and a major way in which the effects of climate change are expressed. As a causal factor, land use influences the flux of mass and energy, and as land-cover patterns change, these fluxes are altered. Projected climate alterations will produce changes in land-cover patterns at a variety of temporal and spatial scales, although human uses of the land are expected to override many effects. A review of the literature dealing with the relationship between land-use change and climate change clearly shows that (1) in recent centuries land-use change has had much greater effects on ecological variables than has climate change; (2) the vast majority of land-use changes have little to do with climate change or even climate; and (3) humans will change land use, and especially land management, to adjust to climate change and these adaptations will have some ecological effects. Therefore, an understanding of the nonclimatic causes of land-use change ...

Contribution of Southern Ocean surface-water stratification to low atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the last glacial period

Abstract: Contribution of Southern Ocean surface-water stratification to low atmospheric CO 2 concentrations during the last glacial period

Human adaptation to climatic variability and change

Abstract: Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation in the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing Impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC’s more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at times inconsistent, understanding of human adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body of scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variabllily and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the dlstinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies.

Potential effects of climate changes on aquatic systems: laurentian great lakes and precambrian shield region

Abstract: The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0.118C per decade in spring and 0.068C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2.1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2.58C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO2 climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 CO2 climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0. 2t o 2 .5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1‐78C warmer for surface waters, and 68C cooler to 88C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3.5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn aAect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected. Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500‐600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond diAerently, as do lakes of diAerent depth or productivity. DiAerences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause diAerent responses. Climate change eAects interact strongly with eAects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation.

An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change.

Abstract: A new air mass-based synoptic procedure is used to evaluate climate/mortality relationships as they presently exist and to estimate how a predicted global warming might alter these values. Forty-four large U.S. cities with metropolitan areas exceeding 1 million in population are analyzed. Sharp increases in mortality are noted in summer for most cities in the East and Midwest when two particular air masses are present. A very warm air mass of maritime origin is most important in the eastern United States, which when present can increase daily mortality by as many as 30 deaths in large cities. A hot, dry air mass is important in many cities, and, although rare in the East, can increase daily mortality by up to 50 deaths. Cities in the South and Southwest show lesser weather/mortality relationships in summer. During winter, air mass-induced increases in mortality are considerably less than in summer. Although daily winter mortality is usually higher than summer, the causes of death that are responsible for most winter mortality do not vary much with temperature. Using models that estimate climate change for the years 2020 and 2050, it is estimated that summer mortality will increase dramatically and winter mortality will decrease slightly, even if people acclimatize to the increased warmth. Thus, a sizable net increase in weather-related mortality is estimated if the climate warms as the models predict.

Tundra plants and climate change: The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX).

Abstract: The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) was established in late 1990 at a meeting of arctic tundra ecologists as a response to predictions that the human-enhanced greenhouse warming would occur earliest and most intensely at high latitudes. The initial objective of ITEX was to monitor phenology, growth and reproduction in major circumpolar vascular plant species in response to climate variations and environmental manipulations at sites throughout the tundra biome. The manipulations involve passive warming of tundra plots in open-top chambers (OTCs), and manipulating snow depth to alter growing season length. Standard protocols were developed for measurements, experimental design and statistical analyses, and published in an ITEX Manual. The standard methods ensure comparable data are collected at all sites. This special issue of Global Change Biology is based on papers developed from the 6th ITEX Workshop, held at the University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 7–11 April 1995. The papers compare short-term responses (1–3 years) of common species to climate variations and manipulations at ITEX sites. The OTCs increase mean near-surface temperatures by 1–3°C during the growing season, simulating predictions from global circulation models. All species investigated responded to the temperature increase, especially in phenology and reproductive variables. However, these short-term responses were individualistic, and no general pattern in type or magnitude of response was noted for functional types or phenology class. Responses were generally similar among sites, although the magnitude of response tended to be greater in high Arctic sites. Early snowmelt increased carbon:nutrient ratios in plants. Sustained growth and reproductive responses to warming will depend on nutrient supply, and increased carbon:nutrient ratios in litter could buffer nutrient cycling, and hence plant growth. Ongoing, long-term research at ITEX sites, linked to other global change initiatives, will help elucidate probable effects of climate change at the ecosystems level in arctic and alpine tundra.

Effects of climate change on the freshwaters of arctic and subarctic north america

Abstract: Region 2 comprises arctic and subarctic North America and is underlain by continuous or discontinuous permafrost. Its freshwater systems are dominated by a low energy environment and cold region processes. Central northern areas are almost totally influenced by arctic air masses while Pacific air becomes more prominent in the west, Atlantic air in the east and southern air masses at the lower latitudes. Air mass changes will play an important role in precipitation changes associated with climate warming. The snow season in the region is prolonged resulting in long-term storage of water so that the spring flood is often the major hydrological event of the year, even though, annual rainfall usually exceeds annual snowfall. The unique character of ponds and lakes is a result of the long frozen period, which affects nutrient status and gas exchange during the cold season and during thaw. GCM models are in close agreement for this region and predict temperature increases as large as 4°C in summer and 9°C in winter for a 2 × CO2 scenario. Palaeoclimate indicators support the probability that substantial temperature increases have occurred previously during the Holocene. The historical record indicates a temperature increase of > 1°C in parts of the region during the last century. GCM predictions of precipitation change indicate an increase, but there is little agreement amongst the various models on regional disposition or magnitude. Precipitation change is as important as temperature change in determining the water balance. The water balance is critical to every aspect of hydrology and limnology in the far north. Permafrost close to the surface plays a major role in freshwater systems because it often maintains lakes and wetlands above an impermeable frost table, which limits the water storage capabilities of the subsurface. Thawing associated with climate change would, particularly in areas of massive ice, stimulate landscape changes, which can affect every aspect of the environment. The normal spring flooding of ice-jammed north-flowing rivers, such as the Mackenzie, is a major event, which renews the water supply of lakes in delta regions and which determines the availability of habitat for aquatic organisms. Climate warming or river damming and diversion would probably lead to the complete drying of many delta lakes. Climate warming would also change the characteristics of ponds that presently freeze to the bottom and result in fundamental changes in their limnological characteristics. At present, the food chain is rather simple usually culminating in lake trout or arctic char. A lengthening of the growing season and warmer water temperature would affect the chemical, mineral and nutrient status of lakes and most likely have deleterious effects on the food chain. Peatlands are extensive in region 2. They would move northwards at their southern boundaries, and, with sustained drying, many would change form or become inactive. Extensive wetlands and peatlands are an important component of the global carbon budget, and warmer and drier conditions would most likely change them from a sink to a source for atmospheric carbon. There is some evidence that this may be occurring already. Region 2 is very vulnerable to global warming. Its freshwater systems are probably the least studied and most poorly understood in North America. There are clear needs to improve our current knowledge of temperature and precipitation patterns; to model the thermal behaviour of wetlands, lakes and rivers; to understand better the interrelationships of cold region rivers with their basins; to begin studies on the very large lakes in the region; to obtain a firm grasp of the role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle; and to link the terrestrial water balance to the thermal and hydrological regime of the polar sea. Overall, there is a strong need for basic research and long-term monitoring. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tectonic uplift and climate change

Abstract: Introduction: Review of Uplift/Climate Hypotheses W.F. Ruddiman, W.L. Prell. Evidence of Cenozoic Uplift: The When and Where of the Growth of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau P. Copeland. Variability in Age of Initial Shortening and Uplift in the Central Andes, 16-33 30'S T.E. Jordan, et al. Late Neogene Uplift in Eastern and Southern Africa and Its Paleoclimatic Implications T.C. Partridge. General Circulation Model Studies of Uplift Effects on Climate: Mountains and Midlatitude Aridity A.J. Broccoli, S. Manabe. The Effects of Uplift on Ocean-Atmosphere Circulation D. Rind, et al. Possible Effects of Cenozoic Uplift and CO2 Lowering on Global and Regional Hydrology J.E. Kutzbach, et al. The Impact of Tibet - Himalayan Elevation on the Sensitivity of the Monsoon Climate System to Changes in Solar Radiation W.L. Prell, J.E. Kutzbach. Testing the Climatic Effects of Orography and CO2 with General Circulation and Biome Models W.F. Ruddiman, et al. Geological and Geochemical Evidence of Uplift Effects on Weathering and CO2: Fluvial Sediment Discharge to the Sea and the Importance of Regional Tectonics J.D. Milliman. The Effect of Late Cenozoic Glaciation and Tectonic Uplift on Silicate Weathering Rates and the Marine 87Sr/86Sr Record J.D. Blum. Himalayan Weathering and Erosion Fluxes: Climatic and Tectonic Controls L.A. Derry, C. France-Lanord. Late Cenozoic Vegetation Change, Atmospheric CO2, and Tectonics T.E. Cerling. Chemical Weathering Yields from Basement and Orogenic Terrains in Hot and Cold Climates J.M. Edmond, Y. Huh. Silicate Weathering and Climate R.A.Berner, E.K. Berner. Carbon Cycle Models -- How Strong Are the Constraints? M.E. Raymo. Os Isotope Record in a Cenozoic Deep-Sea Core: Its Relation to Global Tectonics and Climate K.K. Turekian, W.J. Pegram. Global Chemical Erosion during the Cenozoic: Weatherability Balances the Budgets L.R. Kump, M.A. Arthur. The Marine 87 Sr/86 Sr and d18 O Records, Himalayan Alkalinity Fluxes, and Cenozoic Climate Models S.E. McCauley, D.J. DePaolo. Synthesis: The Uplift-Climate Connection: A Synthesis W.F. Ruddiman, et al. Index.

The effect of smoke particles on clouds and climate forcing

Abstract: Smoke particles from biomass burning can generate forcing of climate by modifying cloud microphysics and reflectance of sunlight. Cloud modification, critical to an understanding of climate change, is uncertain and variable. Satellite data over the Amazon Basin and Cerrado were analyzed for cloud reflectance and droplet size and for smoke concentration. Smoke increased cloud reflectance from 0.35 to 0.45, while reducing droplet size from 14 to 9 micrometers. The regional variability of the smoke effect was correlated to the availability of water vapor. During the 3 months of biomass burning in the dry season, the smoke-cloud forcing of climate was only −2 watts per square meter in this region, much smaller than what can be inferred from model predictions.

Potential responses of soil organic carbon to global environmental change

Abstract: Recent improvements in our understanding of the dynamics of soil carbon have shown that 20-40% of the approximately 1,500 Pg of C stored as organic matter in the upper meter of soils has turnover times of centuries or less. This fast-cycling organic matter is largely comprised of undecomposed plant material and hydrolyzable components associated with mineral surfaces. Turnover times of fast-cycling carbon vary with climate and vegetation, and range from 60 years at high latitudes. The amount and turnover time of C in passive soil carbon pools (organic matter strongly stabilized on mineral surfaces with turnover times of millennia and longer) depend on factors like soil maturity and mineralogy, which, in turn, reflect long-term climate conditions. Transient sources or sinks in terrestrial carbon pools result from the time lag between photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by plants and the subsequent return of C to the atmosphere through plant, heterotrophic, and microbial respiration. Differential responses of primary production and respiration to climate change or ecosystem fertilization have the potential to cause significant interrannual to decadal imbalances in terrestrial C storage and release. Rates of carbon storage and release in recently disturbed ecosystems can be much larger than rates in more mature ecosystems. Changes in disturbance frequency and regime resulting from future climate change may be more important than equilibrium responses in determining the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems.

Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations

Abstract: Anthropogenic increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are predicted to cause a warming of the global climate by modifying radiative forcing1. Carbon dioxide concentration increases may make a further contribution to warming by inducing a physiological response of the global vegetation—a reduced stomatal conductance, which suppresses transpiration2. Moreover, a CO2-enriched atmosphere and the corresponding change in climate may also alter the density of vegetation cover, thus modifying the physicalcharacteristics of the land surface to provide yet another climate feedback3,4,5,6. But such feedbacks from changes in vegetation structure have not yet been incorporated into general circulation model predictions of future climate change. Here we use a general circulation model iteratively coupled to an equilibrium vegetation model to quantify the effects of both physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks on a doubled-CO2 climate. On a global scale, changes in vegetation structure are found to partially offset physiological vegetation–climate feedbacks in the long term, but overall vegetation feedbacks provide significant regional-scale effects.

The Role of the Sun in Climate Change

Abstract: The luminosity of the sun governs the temperatures of the planets. Yet the solar forcing, or driving, of climate, primarily due to changes in solar radiation, has never been well documented. Recent satellite measurements have shown that solar radiation varies as a function of time and wavelength, a concept that has been hypothesized for the past two centuries and has recently become a major topic with all the attention paid to global warming. This book reviews the physics of the concept of solar forcing, from its beginnings in the early 1800's and apparent success in the 1870's, to its near demise in the 1950's and recent resurgence. Since its emphasis is on solar variations as a driver for climate change, with only a brief discussion of other mechanisms, the book will be of most interest to students in climate studies.

Elevation Dependency of the Surface Climate Change Signal: A Model Study

Abstract: Results are presented from a present-day and a doubled CO2 experiment over the Alpine region with a nested regional climate model. The simulated temperature change signal shows a substantial elevation dependency, mostly during the winter and spring seasons, resulting in more pronounced warming at high elevations than low elevations. This is caused by a depletion of snowpack in doubled CO2 conditions and further enhanced by the snow–albedo feedback. This result is consistent with some observed temperature trends for anomalously warm years over the Alpine region and suggests that high elevation temperature changes could be used as an early detection tool for global warming. Changes in precipitation, as well as other components of the surface energy and water budgets, also show an elevation signal, which may have important implications for impact assessments in high elevation regions.

Effects of Land Use on the Climate of the United States

Abstract: Land use practices have replaced much of the natural needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf deciduous, and mixed forests of the Eastern United States with crops. To a lesser extent, the natural grasslands in the Central United States have also been replaced with crops. Simulations with a land surface process model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model show that the climate of the United States with modern vegetation is significantly different from that with natural vegetation. Three important climate signals caused by modern vegetation are: (1) 1 °C cooling over the Eastern United States and 1 °C warming over the Western United States in spring; (2) summer cooling of up to 2 °C over a wide region of the Central United States; and (3) moistening of the near-surface atmosphere by 0.5 to 1.5 g kg-1over much of the United States in spring and summer. Although individual months show large, statistically significant differences in precipitation due to land-use practices, these differences average out over the course of the 3-month seasons. These changes in surface temperature and moisture extend well into the atmosphere, up to 500 mb, and affect the boundary layer and atmospheric circulation. The altered climate is due to reduced surface roughness, reduced leaf and stem area index, reduced stomatal resistance, and increased surface albedo with modern vegetation compared to natural vegetation. The climate change caused by land use practices is comparable to other well known anthropogenic climate forcings. For example, it would take 100 to 175 years at the current, observed rate of summer warming over the United States to offset the cooling from deforestation. The summer sulfate aerosol forcing completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the Eastern United States. Similarly, the climatic effect of North American deforestation, with extensive summer cooling, further offsets the greenhouse forcing.

Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty

Abstract: Our central goal is to determine the importance of including both mean and variability changes in climate change scenarios in an agricultural context By adapting and applying a stochastic weather generator, we first tested the sensitivity of the CERES-Wheat model to combinations of mean and variability changes of temperature and precipitation for two locations in Kansas With a 2°C increase in temperature with daily (and interannual) variance doubled, yields were further reduced compared to the mean only change In contrast, the negative effects of the mean temperature increase were greatly ameliorated by variance decreased by one-half Changes for precipitation are more complex, since change in variability naturally attends change in mean, and constraining the stochastic generator to mean change only is highly artificial The crop model is sensitive to precipitation variance increases with increased mean and variance decreases with decreased mean With increased mean precipitation and a further increase in variability Topeka (where wheat cropping is not very moisture limited) experiences decrease in yield after an initial increase from the 'mean change only’ case At Goodland Kansas, a moisture-limited site where summer fallowing is practiced, yields are decreased with decreased precipitation, but are further decreased when variability is further reduced The range of mean and variability changes to which the crop model is sensitive are within the range of changes found in regional climate modeling (RegCM) experiments for a CO2 doubling (compared to a control run experiment) We then formed two types of climate change scenarios based on the changes in climate found in the control and doubled CO2 experiments over the conterminous U S of RegCM: (1) one using only mean monthly changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation; and (2) another that included these mean changes plus changes in daily (and interannual) variability The scenarios were then applied to the CERES-Wheat model at four locations (Goodland, Topeka, Des Moines, Spokane) in the United States Contrasting model responses to the two scenarios were found at three of the four sites At Goodland, and Des Moines mean climate change increased mean yields and decreased yield variability, but the mean plus variance climate change reduced yields to levels closer to their base (unchanged) condition At Spokane mean climate change increased yields, which were somewhat further increased with climate variability change Three key aspects that contribute to crop response are identified: the marginality of the current climate for crop growth, the relative size of the mean and variance changes, and timing of these changes Indices for quantifying uncertainty in the impact assessment were developed based on the nature of the climate scenario formed, and the magnitude of difference between model and observed values of relevant climate variables