Showing papers on "Liquidity risk published in 2011"

Corporate Bond Liquidity Before and After the Onset of the Subprime Crisis

Abstract: We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds.

Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility

Abstract: We investigate the relation between global foreign exchange (FX) volatility risk and the cross-section of excess returns arising from popular strategies that borrow in low-interest rate currencies and invest in high-interest rate currencies, so-called 'carry trades'. We find that high interest rate currencies are negatively related to innovations in global FX volatility and thus deliver low returns in times of unexpected high volatility, when low interest rate currencies provide a hedge by yielding positive returns. Our proxy for global FX volatility risk captures more than 90% of the cross-sectional excess returns in five carry trade portfolios. In turn, these results provide evidence that there is an economically meaningful risk-return relation in the FX market. Further analysis shows that liquidity risk also matters for expected FX returns, but to a lesser degree than volatility risk. Finally, exposure to our volatility risk proxy also performs well for pricing returns of other cross sections in foreign exchange, U.S. equity, and corporate bond markets.

Understanding Commonality in Liquidity Around the World

Abstract: We examine how commonality in liquidity varies across countries and over time in ways related to supply determinants (funding liquidity of financial intermediaries) and demand determinants (correlated trading behavior of international and institutional investors, incentives to trade individual securities, and investor sentiment) of liquidity. Commonality in liquidity is greater in countries with and during times of high market volatility (especially, large market declines), greater presence of international investors, and more correlated trading activity. Our evidence is more reliably consistent with demand-side explanations and challenges the ability of the funding liquidity hypothesis to help us understand important aspects of financial market liquidity around the world, even during the recent financial crisis.

Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle

Abstract: In the recent financial crisis we saw liquidity in the stock market drying up as a precursor to the crisis in the real economy. We show that such effects are not new; in fact, we find a strong relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. We also show that investors' portfolio compositions change with the business cycle and that investor participation is related to market liquidity This suggests that systematic liquidity variation is related to a "flight to quality" during economic down? turns. Overall, our results provide a new explanation for the observed commonality in liquidity. In discussions of the current financial crisis, much is made of the apparent causality between a decline in the liquidity of financial assets and the economic crisis. In this paper we show that such effects are not new; changes in the liquidity of the U.S. stock market have been coinciding with changes in the real economy at least since the Second World War. In fact, stock market liquidity is a very good "leading indicator" of the real economy. Using data for the United States over the period 1947 to 2008, we document that measures of stock market liquidity contain leading information about the real economy, even after controlling for other asset price predictors. Figure 1 provides a time-series plot of one measure of market liquidity, the Amihud (2002) measure, together with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recession periods (gray bars). This figure illustrates the re? lationship found between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. As can be seen from the figure, liquidity clearly worsens (illiquidity increases) well ahead of the onset of the NBER recessions. Our results are relevant for several strands of the literature. One impor? tant strand is the literature on forecasting economic growth using different asset prices, including interest rates, term spreads, stock returns, and ex? change rates. The forward-looking nature of asset markets makes the use *Randi Naes is at the Norwegian Ministry of Trade and Industry Johannes A. Skjeltorp is at Norges Bank (the Central Bank of Norway). Bernt Arne 0degaard is at the University of Stavanger, Norges Bank, and Norwegian School of Management. We are grateful for comments from an anonymous referee, an associate editor, and our Editor (Campbell Harvey). We also thank Kristian Miltersen, Luis Viceira, and seminar participants at the fourth Annual Central Bank

Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models

Abstract: Modern asset pricing theory is based on the assumption that investors have heterogeneous information. We provide direct evidence of the importance of information asymmetry for asset prices and investor demands using three natural experiments that capture plausibly exogenous variation in information asymmetry on a stock-by-stock basis for a large set of U.S. companies. Consistent with predictions derived from an asymmetric-information rational expectations model with multiple assets and multiple signals, we find that prices and uninformed investors' demands fall as information asymmetry increases. In the cross-section, these falls are larger, the more investors are uninformed, the larger and more variable is stock turnover, the more uncertain is the asset's payoff, and the more precise is the lost signal. We show that at least part of the fall in prices is due to expected returns becoming more sensitive to liquidity risk. Our results confirm that information asymmetry has a substantial effect on asset prices and imply that a primary channel linking asymmetry to prices is liquidity.

Liquidity Management and Corporate Investment During a Financial Crisis

Abstract: This article uses a unique dataset to study how firms managed liquidity during the 2008- 2009 financial crisis. Our analysis provides new insights on interactions between internal liquidity, external funds, and real corporate decisions, such as investment and employment. We first describe how companies used credit lines during the crisis (access, size of facilities, and drawdown activity), the characteristics of these facilities (fees, markups, maturity, and collateral), and whether managers had difficulties in renewing or initiating lines. We also describe the dynamics of credit line violations and the outcome of subsequent renegotiations. We show how companies substitute between credit lines and internal liquidity (cash and profits) when facing a severe credit shortage. Looking at real-side decisions, we find that credit lines are associated with greater spending when companies are not cashstrapped. Firms with limited access to credit lines, in contrast, appear to choose between saving and investing during the crisis. Our evidence indicates that credit lines eased the impact of the financial crisis on corporate spending.

A Unified Theory of Tobin's q, Corporate Investment, Financing, and Risk Management

Abstract: We propose a model of dynamic investment, financing, and risk management for financially constrained firms. The model highlights the central importance of the endogenous marginal value of liquidity (cash and credit line) for corporate decisions. Our three main results are: (1) investment depends on the ratio of marginal q to the marginal value of liquidity, and the relation between investment and marginal q changes with the marginal source of funding; (2) optimal external financing and payout are characterized by an endogenous double-barrier policy for the firm's cash-capital ratio; and (3) liquidity management and derivatives hedging are complementary risk management tools.

A Pigovian Approach to Liquidity Regulation

Abstract: This paper discusses liquidity regulation when short-term funding enables credit growth but generates negative systemic risk externalities. It focuses on the relative merit of price versus quantity rules, showing how they target different incentives for risk creation. When banks differ in credit opportunities, a Pigovian tax on short-term funding is efficient in containing risk and preserving credit quality, while quantity-based funding ratios are distorsionary. Liquidity buffers are either fully ineffective or similar to a Pigovian tax with deadweight costs. Critically, they may be least binding when excess credit incentives are strongest. When banks differ instead mostly in gambling incentives (due to low charter value or overconfidence), excess credit and liquidity risk are best controlled with net funding ratios. Taxes on short-term funding emerge again as efficient when capital or liquidity ratios keep risk shifting incentives under control. In general, an optimal policy should involve both types of tools.

Dynamic Debt Runs

Abstract: Firms commonly spread out their debt expirations across time to reduce the liquidity risk generated by large quantities of debt expiring at the same time. By doing so, they introduce a dynamic coordination problem. In deciding whether to rollover his debt, each maturing creditor is concerned about the rollover decisions of other creditors whose debt matures during his next contract period. We develop a model with a time-varying firm fundamental and a staggered debt structure to analyze this problem. We derive a unique threshold equilibrium with fear of a firm's future rollover risk driving preemptive runs. Our model characterizes fundamental volatility, asset illiquidity, reliability of credit lines, and debt maturity as determinants of such dynamic runs.

Inside and Outside Liquidity

Abstract: Two leading economists develop a theory explaining the demand for and supply of liquid assets.Why do financial institutions, industrial companies, and households hold low-yielding money balances, Treasury bills, and other liquid assets? When and to what extent can the state and international financial markets make up for a shortage of liquid assets, allowing agents to save and share risk more effectively? These questions are at the center of all financial crises, including the current global one.In Inside and Outside Liquidity, leading economists Bengt Holmstrom and Jean Tirole offer an original, unified perspective on these questions. In a slight, but important, departure from the standard theory of finance, they show how imperfect pledgeability of corporate income leads to a demand for as well as a shortage of liquidity with interesting implications for the pricing of assets, investment decisions, and liquidity management. The government has an active role to play in improving risk-sharing between consumers with limited commitment power and firms dealing with the high costs of potential liquidity shortages. In this perspective, private risk-sharing is always imperfect and may lead to financial crises that can be alleviated through government interventions.

Transparency and Liquidity Uncertainty in Crisis Periods

Abstract: We document, for a global sample, that firms with greater transparency (based on accounting standards, auditor choice, earnings management, analyst following and forecast accuracy) experience less liquidity volatility, fewer extreme illiquidity events and lower correlations between firm-level liquidity and both market liquidity and market returns. Results are robust to numerous sensitivity analyses, including controls for endogeneity and propensity matching. Results are particularly pronounced during crises, when liquidity variances, covariances and extreme illiquidity events increase substantially, but less so for transparent firms. Finally, liquidity variance, covariance and the frequency of extreme illiquidity events are all negatively correlated with Tobin’s Q.

Derivative Pricing with Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market

Abstract: We derive an equilibrium asset pricing model incorporating liquidity risk, derivatives, and short-selling due to hedging of nontraded risk. We show that illiquid assets can have lower expected returns if the short-sellers have more wealth, lower risk aversion, or shorter horizon. The pricing of liquidity risk is different for derivatives than for positive-net-supply assets, and depends on investors' net nontraded risk exposure. We estimate this model for the credit default swap market. We find strong evidence for an expected liquidity premium earned by the credit protection seller. The effect of liquidity risk is significant but economically small.

The Interbank Market after the Financial Turmoil: Squeezing Liquidity in a 'Lemons Market' or Asking Liquidity 'on Tap'

Abstract: After August 2007 the plumbing system that supplied banks with wholesale funding, the interbank market, failed because toxic assets obstructed the pipes. Banks were forced to squeeze liquidity in a 'lemons market' or to ask for liquidity 'on tap' from central banks. This paper disentangles the two components of the three-month Euribor-Eonia swap spread, credit and liquidity risk and then evaluates the decomposition. The main finding is that credit risk increased before the key events of the crisis, while liquidity risk was mainly responsible for the subsequent increases in the Euribor spread and then reacted to the systemic responses of the central banks, especially in October 2008. Moreover, the level of the spread between May 2009 and February 2010 was influenced mainly by credit risk, suggesting that European banks were still in a 'lemons market' and relied on liquidity 'on tap'.

Liquidity Risk Management: A comparative study between Conventional and Islamic Banks of Pakistan

Abstract: The role of Bank is diversified into financial intermediaries, facilitator and supporter. Yet the banks place themselves as a trusted body for the depositors, business associates and investors. Liquidity risk may arise from these diverse operations, as they are fully liable to make available, liquidity when stipulated by the third party. Additional efforts are required by Islamic banks for scaling liquidity management due to their unique characteristics and conformity with sharia principles. The objective of this study is to look into the liquidity risk associated with the solvency of a financial institution, with a purpose to evaluate liquidity risk management (LRM) through a comparative analysis between conventional and Islamic banks of Pakistan. This paper investigates the significance of Size of the firm, Networking Capital, Return on Equity, Capital Adequacy and Return on Assets (ROA), with liquidity Risk Management in conventional and Islamic banks of Pakistan. The study is based on secondary data, that covers a period of four years, i.e. 2006-2009. The study found positive but insignificant relationship of size of the bank and net-working capital to net assets with liquidity risk in both models. In addition Capital adequacy ratio in conventional banks and return on assets in islamic banks is found to be positive and significant at 10% significance level.

Latency, Liquidity and Price Discovery

Abstract: The speed of trading is an important factor in modern security markets. We still know relatively little about the e ffect of speed on liquidity and price discovery, two important aspects of market quality. On April 23rd, 2007, Deutsche Boerse made the most important upgrade to their trading system since 2002. With the 8.0 release of Xetra, system latency was reduced from 50 ms to 10 ms. Both quoted and eff ective spreads decreases post upgrade. This increase in liquidity, is due to dramatically lower adverse selection costs that are only partially translated into higher liquidity. We interpret this as a decrease in the competition between liquidity suppliers who are able to increase their revenues by more than 185 million Euros. The contribution of quotes to price discovery doubles to 90% post upgrade, indicating that prices are more effcient.

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises

Abstract: We collect new data to assess the importance of supply-side credit market frictions by studying the impact of financial sector recapitalization packages on the growth performance of firms in a large cross-section of 50 countries during the recent crisis. We develop an identification strategy that uses the financial crisis as a shock to credit supply and exploits exogenous variation in the degree to which firms depend on external financing for investment needs, and focus on policy interventions aimed at alleviating the bank capital crunch. We find that the growth of firms dependent on external financing is disproportionately positively affected by bank recapitalization policies, and that this effect is quantitatively important and robust to controlling for other financial sector support policies. We also find that fiscal policy disproportionately boosted growth of firms more dependent on external financing. These results provide new evidence of a quantitatively important role of credit market frictions in influencing real economic activity.

Endogenous Liquidity in Credit Derivatives

Abstract: We study the determination of liquidity provision as measured by the number of distinct dealers providing quotes in the single-name credit default swap (CDS) market. Cross-sectionally, liquidity is concentrated among large obligors and those near the investment-grade/speculative-grade cutoff. Consistent with endogenous liquidity provision by informed financial institutions, more liquidity is associated with obligors for which there is a greater information flow from the CDS market to the stock market ahead of major credit events. Furthermore, the level of information heterogeneity plays a prominent role in how liquidity provision responds to transaction demand and how liquidity is priced into the CDS premium.

The global financial crisis and Islamic finance

Abstract: The conventional view holds that the current global financial crisis was caused by extraordinarily high liquidity, reckless lending practices, and the rapid pace of financial engineering, which created complex and opaque financial instruments used for risk transfer. There was a breakdown of the lender-borrower relationship and informational problems caused by a lack of transparency in asset market prices, particularly in the market for structured credit instruments. There was outdated, lax, or absent regulatory-supervisory oversight; faulty risk management and accounting models; and the emergence of an incentive structure that not only encouraged excessive risk taking but also created a complicit coalition of financial institutions, real estate developers and appraisers, insurance companies, and credit rating agencies whose actions led to a deliberate underpricing of risk. Such a crisis would not have occurred under an Islamic financial system—due to the fact that most, if not all, of the factors that have caused or contributed to the development and spread of the crisis are not allowed under the rules and guidance of Shariah. The current global financial crisis is largely seen as a real test of the resilience of the Islamic financial services industry and its ability to present itself as a more reliable alternative to the conventional financial system. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Effect of Information Quality on Liquidity Risk

Abstract: I investigate whether information quality affects the cost of equity capital through liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is the sensitivity of stock returns to unexpected changes in market liquidity; recent asset pricing literature has emphasized the importance of this systematic risk. I find that higher information quality is associated with lower liquidity risk and that the reduction in cost of capital due to this association is economically significant. I also find that the negative association between information quality and liquidity risk is stronger in times of large shocks to market liquidity.

The Liquidity Risk of Liquid Hedge Funds

Abstract: This paper evaluates hedge funds that grant favorable redemption terms to investors. Within this group of purportedly liquid funds, high net inflow funds subsequently outperform low net inflow funds by 4.79% per year after adjusting for risk. The return impact of fund flows is stronger when funds embrace liquidity risk, when market liquidity is low, and when funding liquidity, as measured by the Treasury-Eurodollar spread, aggregate hedge fund flows, and prime broker stock returns, is tight. In keeping with an agency explanation, funds with strong incentives to raise capital, low manager option deltas, and no manager capital co-invested are more likely to take on excessive liquidity risk. These results resonate with the theory of funding liquidity by Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009).

Systemic Risk and the U.S. Insurance Sector

Abstract: This paper examines the potential for the U.S. insurance industry to cause systemic risk events that spill over to other segments of the economy. We examine primary indicators that determine whether institutions are systemically risky as well as contributing factors that exacerbate vulnerability to systemic events. Evaluation of systemic risk is based on a detailed financial analysis of the insurance industry, its role in the economy, and the interconnectedness of insurers. The primary conclusion is that the core activities of the U.S. insurers do not pose systemic risk. However, life insurers are vulnerable to intra-sector crises because of leverage and liquidity risk; and both life and property-casualty insurers are vulnerable to reinsurance crises arising from counterparty credit exposure. Non-core activities such as derivatives trading have the potential to cause systemic risk, and most global insurance organizations have exposure to derivatives markets. To reduce systemic risk from non-core activities, regulators need to develop better mechanisms for insurance group supervision.

Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets

Abstract: We study an over-the-counter (OTC) market in which the usefulness of assets as a means of payment or collateral is limited by the threat of fraudulent practices. Agents can produce fraudulent assets at a positive cost, which generates upper bounds on the quantity of each asset that can be traded in the OTC market. Each of these endogenous, asset-specific, resalability constraints depends on the cost of fraud, on the frequency of trade, and on the asset price. In equilibrium, assets are partitioned into three liquidity tiers, which differ in their resalability, prices, haircuts, sensitivity to shocks, and responses to policies.

Liquidity and Arbitrage in the Market for Credit Risk

Abstract: The recent credit crisis has highlighted the importance of market liquidity and its interaction with the price of credit risk. We investigate this interaction by relating the liquidity of corporate bonds to the basis between the credit default swap (CDS) spread of the issuer and the par-equivalent bond yield spread. The liquidity of a bond is measured using a recently developed measure called latent liquidity, which is defined as the weighted average turnover of funds holding the bond, where the weights are their fractional holdings of the bond. We find that bonds with higher latent liquidity are more expensive relative to their CDS contracts, after controlling for other realized measures of liquidity. Analysis of interaction eects shows that highly illiquid bonds of firms with a greater degree of uncertainty are also expensive, consistent with limits to arbitrage between CDS and bond markets, due to the higher costs of “shorting” illiquid bonds. Additionally, we document the positive eects of liquidity in the CDS market on the CDS-bond basis. We also find that several firm-level and bond-level variables related We acknowledge the generous support of State Street Corporation in providing the resources for conducting the research reported in this paper. We are grateful to an anonymous referee and the editor, Paul Malatesta, for detailed, helpful comments on a previous draft of this paper. We thank Craig Emrick, Gaurav Mallik, Jerey

Impacts of liquidity ratios on profitability (Case of oil and gas companies of Pakistan)

Abstract: The present study aims to reveal the relationship between liquidity and profitability so that every firm has to maintain this relationship while in conducting day to day operations. The results show that there is a significant impact of only liquid ratio on ROA while insignificant on ROE and ROI; the results also show that ROE is no significant effected by three ratios current ratio, quick ratio and liquid ratio while ROI is greatly affected by current ratios, quick ratios and liquid ratio. The main results of the study demonstrate that each ratio (variable) has a significant effect on the financial positions of enterprises with differing amounts and that along with the liquidity ratios in the first place. Profitability ratios also play an important role in the financial positions of enterprises. Every stakeholder has interest in the liquidity position of a company. Suppliers of goods will check the liquidity of the company before selling goods on credit. Employees should also be concerned about the company’s liquidity to know whether the company can meet its employee related obligations–salary, pension, provident fund, etc. Thus, a company needs to maintain adequate liquidity so that liquidity greatly affects profits of which some portion that will be divided to shareholders. Liquidity and profitability are closely related because one increases the other decreases.

The changing role of central banks

Abstract: Although central banks have pursued the same objectives throughout their existence, primarily price and financial stability, the interpretation of their role in doing so has varied. We identify three stable epochs, when such interpretations had stabilised, i.e. the Victorian era, 1840s–1914; the decades of government control, 1930s–60s; the triumph of the markets, 1980s–2007. Each epoch was followed by a confused interregnum, searching for a new consensual blueprint. The final such epoch concluded with a crisis, when it became apparent that macro-economic stability, the Great Moderation, plus (efficient) markets could not guarantee financial stability. So the search is now on for additional macro-prudential (counter-cyclical) instruments. The use of such instruments will need to be associated with controlled variations in systemic liquidity, and in the balance sheet of the central bank. Such control over its own balance sheet is the core, central function of any central bank, even more so than its role in setting short-term interest rates, which latter could be delegated. We end by surveying how relationships between central banks and governments may change over the next period.