Showing papers on "R-CAST published in 2003"

Understandings of the nature of science and decision making on science and technology based issues

Abstract: The purpose of this investigation was to explicate the role of the nature of science in decision making on science and technology based issues and to delineate factors and reasoning associated with these types of decisions. Twenty-one volunteer participants purposively selected from the faculty of geographically diverse universities completed an open-ended questionnaire and follow-up interview designed to assess their decision making on science and technology based issues. Participants were subsequently placed in one of two groups based upon their divergent views of the nature of science as assessed by a second open-ended questionnaire and follow-up interview. Profiles of each group's decision making were then constructed, based on participants' previous responses to the decision making questionnaire and follow-up interviews. Finally, the two groups' decisions, decision influencing factors, and decision making strategies were compared. No differences were found between the decisions of the two groups, despite their disparate views of the nature of science. Participants in both groups based their decisions primarily on personal values, morals/ethics, and social concerns. While all participants considered scientific evidence in their decision making, most did not require absolute “proof,” even though many participants held absolute conceptions of the nature of science. Overall, the nature of science did not figure prominently in either group's decisions. These findings contrast with basic assumptions of current science education reform efforts and call for a re-examination of the goals of nature of science instruction. Developing better decision making skills—even on science and technology based issues—may involve other factors, including more value-based instruction and attention to intellectual/moral development. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Sci Ed87:352–377, 2003; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/sce.10063

Judgement in Managerial Decision Making

Abstract: Biases. Judgment Under Uncertainty. The Nonrational Escalation of Commitment. Creativity and Judgment. Fairness in Decision Making. Making Rational Decisions in Two-Party Negotiations. Negotiator Cognition. Decision Making with More than Two Parties. Improving Decision Making. References. Index.

Shared decision making in psychiatry.

Abstract: Objective: In other medical fields, ‘shared decision making’ (a strategy for including patients in therapeutic decision processes) has been studied for several years now. This survey presents the potential of shared decision making for psychiatry. Method: Literature search. Results: Research in other medical fields shows that shared decision making positively influences patients’ satisfaction as well as health outcomes. The application of shared decision making to psychiatry is still in the initial stage. Conclusion: Evidence that shared decision making can be successfully practiced in psychiatry would contribute to an improved inclusion of psychiatric patients in therapeutic decisions and thereby help to implement basic rights of a group of patients who have not sufficiently benefited from consumer empowerment in other medical fields.

A New Model of Medical Decisions: Exploring the Limits of Shared Decision Making:

Abstract: This article proposes a model of medical decisions based on 2 fundamental characteristics of each decision--importance and certainty. Importance reflects a combination of objective and subjective factors; certainty is present if 1 intervention is superior and absent if 2 or more interventions are approximately equal. The proposed model uses these characteristics to predict who will have decisional priority for any given decision and shows how one class of decisions lends itself particularly well to shared decision making. Three other types of decisions are less well suited to a collaborative decision: 1) For major choices that have low certainty, patients should be encouraged to be the primary decision makers, with physician assistance as needed. 2) Most minor decisions that have high certainty are expected to be made by physicians. 3) Major decisions that have high certainty are likely to cause serious conflict when patients and physicians disagree.

An exploratory cognitive DSS for strategic decision making

Abstract: Research on decision support systems (DSS)/executive information systems (EIS) has been primarily concerned with the behavioral aspect of managerial work and has largely ignored the cognitive aspect of decision support. Rather than focusing on the manager's information need on "critical success factors" and the need for supporting specific decision making, this research emphasizes the need to support the decision maker's general thinking processes to reduce cognitive biases in decision making. This paper reports the design, development, and exploratory assessment of a prototype cognitive decision support system (CDSS).

An Integrated Group Decision-Making Method Dealing with Fuzzy Preferences for Alternatives and Individual Judgments for Selection Criteria

Abstract: Organizations often require decisions to be made by a group, and decision makers often have fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments when attempting to reach an optimal solution. In order to deal with the fuzziness of preference of decision makers, this paper proposes an integrated fuzzy group decision-making method. This method allows group members to express fuzzy preferences for alternatives and individual judgments for solution selection criteria. It also allowed for the weighting of group members. The method then aggregates these elements into a compromise group decision which is the most acceptable for the group as a whole. This method has been implemented and tested. An example is presented to illustrate the method.

Information use in strategic decision making

Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of information use in strategic decision making. The study employs a case study as a research strategy together with personal interviews and documentation as means of data collection. The starting‐point is four specific strategic decisions recently made by medium‐sized companies in Sweden. The study provides the reader with an insight into management information behaviour when taking strategic decisions, by addressing questions such as: Why is information used? What kind of information does management use? How do they obtain it? And finally, where do they obtain it? In addition, a short review of the literature pertaining to the above stated questions is provided.

Web-based Spatial Decision Support: Status and Research Directions

Abstract: This paper summarizes research on Web-based spatial decision support systems (WebSDSS). The review distinguishes early server-side from more recent client-side applications. A third category of WebSDSS focusing on spatial decision support in public participation is typically implemented as a mixed client/server-based system. Conclusions drawn from previous work include the need for systematic user studies of WebSDSS, and the adoption of interoperable architectures for distributed spatial decision support. Furthermore, a conceptual framework is proposed to facilitate further studies of WebSDSS methods.

Introduction to health economics for the medical practitioner

Abstract: Against a background of increasing demands on limited resources, health economics is exerting an influence on decision making at all levels of health care. Health economics seeks to facilitate decision making by offering an explicit decision making framework based on the principle of efficiency. It is not the only consideration but it is an important one and practitioners will need to have an understanding of its basic principles and how it can impact on clinical decision making. This article reviews some of the basic principles of health economics and in particular economic evaluation.

Medical decision support systems: Old dilemmas and new paradigms? Tracks for successful integration and adoption

Abstract: Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to examine past and present medical decision support systems and the environment in which they operate and to propose specific research tracks that improve integra-tion and adoption of these systems in today’s health care systems. Methods: In preamble, we examine the objectives, decision models, and performances of past decision support systems. Results: Medical decision support tools were essential-ly formulated from a technical capability perspective and this view has met limited adoption and slowed down new development as well as integration of these important systems into patient management work flows and clinical information systems. The sci-ence base of these systems needs to include evidence-based medicine and clinical practice guidelines and the paradigms need to be extended to include a collabora-tive provider model, the users and the organization perspectives. The availability of patient record and medical terminology standards is essential to the dis-semination of decision support systems and so is their integration into the care process. Conclusion: To build new decision support systems based on practice guidelines and taking into account users preferences, we do not so much advocate new technological solutions but rather suggest that technol-ogy is not enough to ensure successful adoption by the users, the integration into practice workflow, and consequently, the realisation of improved health care outcomes.

Introduction: Where to decision making

Abstract: The overriding goal of this book is to provide a forum for fresh perspectives on decision making. The aim is to expose readers to a wide variety of promising perspectives for enhancing the scope of judgment and decision-making research. The specific purposes of the book are (a) to bridge the gap between traditional decision-making paradigms and newer lines of research and theory; (b) to expand awareness of these new theories and approaches; and (c) to demonstrate how these alternative approaches can enhance development of the judgment and decision-making field. The chapters in this volume illustrate howmuch richer the field is becoming through attention to a number of novel perspectives that have not been a part of traditional judgment anddecisionmaking approaches. Over the past several years, there has been a growing concern that the progress of decision-making research may be limited by focusing heavily on traditional schools of thought (e.g., approaches emphasizing deviations from rationality and utility theory). At the same time, there has been accumulating evidence to show that numerous unexplored factors are likely to impact judgment and choice. For example, many researchers have come to appreciate the vital roles that memory, context, and emotion play in determining decision strategies. This volume provides a forum for updating assumptions of traditional schools of thought as well as introducing new perspectives that push the envelope of judgment and decision-making paradigms. By providing a richer context for thinking about decision making, this book is also relevant for cognitive and social scientists interested in judgment and choice behavior. Many chapters provide explicit bridges

Toward a decision informatics paradigm: a real-time, information-based approach to decision making

Abstract: The focus of this paper is on decision making; more specifically, on what decision making requirements are needed in the future. We augur for a decision informatics paradigm; it is a real-time, information-based approach to decision making. The paradigm is supported by two sets of technologies (i.e., information and decision technologies) and underpinned by three disciplines (i.e., data fusion/analysis, decision modeling, and systems engineering). We begin by considering the context - and needs - for decision making as the economies of the world change and evolve, especially in regard to emerging services; then our proposed decision informatics paradigm is detailed and illustrated, together with an in-depth review of a critical, underpinning research area (dealing with real-time fusion and analysis of multiple nonhomogeneous data sources), followed by several concluding remarks.

Explaining and justifying the advice of a decision support system: a natural language generation approach

Abstract: This paper describes a method for generating explanations in decision analytic contexts. Unlike other approaches, we use natural language generation techniques. The novelty of the work stems from the development of a library of text plans that structure the explanation messages conveyed. This makes our approach generic and easily adjusted to different contexts. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the method, we have developed a natural language generator that explains and justifies the advice of a decision support system for nuclear emergencies. The generator outputs two reports: a comparative report that explains the rationale behind the ranking of the alternatives and a sensitivity analysis report that gives an overall assessment of the decision model and describes the effect of varying a decision parameter.

A COM-based Spatial Decision Support System for Industrial Site Selection

Abstract: Industrial site selection is a complex process for owners and analysts. The process involves not only technical requirements, but also economical, social, environmental and political demands that may result n conflictingi objectives. Because of the compound nature of the process, it requires simultaneous use ofsystem for industrial site selection. The use ofseveral decision support tools such as expert systems (ES), geographic information systems (GIS), and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. This poses the challenge of integrating these decision support tools. Although current integration techniques such as loose and tight coupling have achieved considerable success, they have many limitations. To alleviate these limitations, this study used Component Object Model (COM) technology in designing a decision support the presented system was illustrated using real regional data that is maintained by a state agency. KEYWORDS: Industrial Site Selection,GIS, ES, AHP, SDSS, and COM

GELLO: an object-oriented query and expression language for clinical decision support.

Abstract: GELLO is a purpose-specific, object-oriented (OO) query and expression language. GELLO is the result of a concerted effort of the Decision Systems Group (DSG) working with the HL7 Clinical Decision Support Technical Committee (CDSTC) to provide the HL7 community with a common format for data encoding and manipulation. GELLO will soon be submitted for ballot to the HL7 CDSTC for consideration as a standard.

Integrating cognitive and rational theories of foreign policy decision making

Abstract: Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Polyheuristic Theory of Decision A.Mintz The Rational-Cognitive Debate and Polyheuristic Theory V.Danilovic Comparing the Polyheuristic Theory with Cybernet Decision Theory X.Liu The Decision Not to Use Force in Dien Bien Phu: A Polyheuristic perspective K.DeRouen Jr. 'No Other Choice': Pakistan's Decision to Test the Bomb K.Sathasivam Framing and the Polyheuristic Theory of Decision: The 1954 U.S. Led Coup in Guatamala M.Taylor-Robinsom & S.B.Boyd Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making S.Redd Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: Where Do We Go From Here? A.Mintz

Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

Abstract: The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.

Heterarchy and hierarchy: a critical appraisal of the "levels of evidence" as a tool for clinical decision making.

Abstract: human responses, the realities of practice resources, and the wide variety and quality of different forms of information available to us. If practitioners were to use exclusively the standard levels of evidence model in their selection and use of information, they would be making suboptimal decisions based upon less information than that which was relevant, valid, and available for making the decisions. This creates a paradox in that the very model that is intended to support the use of best evidence in decision making, in fact fails to support the formation of a best decision, and may even hinder it, if applied rigidly and exclusively.

Building Spatial Decision Support Tools for Individuals and Groups

Abstract: We conducted a series of experiments on collective multiple criteria decision making in a spatial context. The first experiment allowed us to understand the needs of participants and facilitator (mediator) of the decision making process. This gave us the design basis for developing a set of interactive software tools to support decision making by individuals and groups. The tools were tested and evaluated by users in the subsequent experiments. The results of the experiments demonstrated that a variety of computational and visual tools is needed to support different decision making styles.

A language for modeling agents' decision making processes in games

Abstract: Multi-agent systems that use game-theoretic analysis for decision making traditionally take a normative approach, in which agents' decisions are derived rationally from the game description. This approach is insufficient to capture the decision making processes of real-life agents. Such agents may be partially irrational, they may use models other than the real world to make decisions, and they may be uncertain about their opponents' decision making processes. We present Networks of Influence Diagrams (NIDs), a language for descriptive decision and game theory that is based on graphical models. NIDs provide a framework for computing optimal decisions for agents that operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, not only over states of knowledge but also over game mechanics and others' decision processes. NIDs allow the modeling of situations in which an agent has an incorrect model of the way the world works, or in which a modeler has uncertainty about the agent's model. One can also recursively model agents' uncertain beliefs about other agents' decision making models. We present an algorithm that computes the actions of agents under the assumption that they are rational with respect to their own model, but not necessarily with respect to the real world. Applications of our language include determining the cost to an agent of using an incorrect model, opponent modeling in games, and modeling bounded rationality.

Balancing consensus and conflict with a gis-based multi-participant, multi-criteria decision support tool

Abstract: Many land use decision problems are sufficiently complex, controversial and non-routine in nature that their resolution requires not only knowledge, expertise and data drawn from several distinct domains, but also debate of multiple and often conflicting viewpoints, objectives and solution strategies. Despite the promise of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for examining a wide variety of land use issues, it has been criticised for its lack of decision support capabilities in this and other application areas (Hendriks and Vriens, 2000; Towers, 1997; Heywood et al., 1994). In particular, the capacity of commercial GIS to facilitate debate and achieve some measure of balance among different viewpoints has been identified as a major weakness. This capability is constrained by several factors in commercial software, foremost of which is an intrinsic single-user perspective that disregards the multi-interest character of the decision making process and the socially constructed nature of data and analytical methods (Pickles, 1999; Flowerdew, 1998; Jones et al., 1997; Goodchild, 1995).

Decision analysis system and method

Abstract: A decision analysis system includes a decision group and a model base communicably connected to the decision group. The model base includes models representing multi-criteria decision analysis and Bayesian analysis techniques. Upon receiving a decision task, the decision group organizes the decision analysis process for the decision task by identifying decision analysis components. The decision group selects one or more appropriate models from the model base for each decision analysis component.