Showing papers by "Ian D. Jonsen published in 2020"

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Abstract: Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

A continuous-time state-space model for rapid quality control of argos locations from animal-borne tags.

Abstract: State-space models are important tools for quality control and analysis of error-prone animal movement data. The near real-time (within 24 h) capability of the Argos satellite system can aid dynamic ocean management of human activities by informing when animals enter wind farms, shipping lanes, and other intensive use zones. This capability also facilitates the use of ocean observations from animal-borne sensors in operational ocean forecasting models. Such near real-time data provision requires rapid, reliable quality control to deal with error-prone Argos locations. We formulate a continuous-time state-space model to filter the three types of Argos location data (Least-Squares, Kalman filter, and Kalman smoother), accounting for irregular timing of observations. Our model is deliberately simple to ensure speed and reliability for automated, near real-time quality control of Argos location data. We validate the model by fitting to Argos locations collected from 61 individuals across 7 marine vertebrates and compare model-estimated locations to contemporaneous GPS locations. We then test assumptions that Argos Kalman filter/smoother error ellipses are unbiased, and that Argos Kalman smoother location accuracy cannot be improved by subsequent state-space modelling. Estimation accuracy varied among species with Root Mean Squared Errors usually <5 km and these decreased with increasing data sampling rate and precision of Argos locations. Including a model parameter to inflate Argos error ellipse sizes in the north - south direction resulted in more accurate location estimates. Finally, in some cases the model appreciably improved the accuracy of the Argos Kalman smoother locations, which should not be possible if the smoother is using all available information. Our model provides quality-controlled locations from Argos Least-Squares or Kalman filter data with accuracy similar to or marginally better than Argos Kalman smoother data that are only available via fee-based reprocessing. Simplicity and ease of use make the model suitable both for automated quality control of near real-time Argos data and for manual use by researchers working with historical Argos data.

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

Abstract: The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations.

Movements and behaviour of blue whales satellite tagged in an Australian upwelling system.

Abstract: Knowledge about the movement ecology of endangered species is needed to identify biologically important areas and the spatio-temporal scale of potential human impacts on species. Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) are endangered due to twentieth century whaling and currently threatened by human activities. In Australia, they feed in the Great Southern Australian Coastal Upwelling System (GSACUS) during the austral summer. We investigate their movements, occupancy, behaviour, and environmental drivers to inform conservation management. Thirteen whales were satellite tagged, biopsy sampled and photo-identified in 2015. All were genetically confirmed to be of the pygmy subspecies (B. m. brevicauda). In the GSACUS, whales spent most of their time over the continental shelf and likely foraging in association with several seascape variables (sea surface temperature variability, depth, wind speed, sea surface height anomaly, and chlorophyll a). When whales left the region, they migrated west and then north along the Australian coast until they reached West Timor and Indonesia, where their movements indicated breeding or foraging behaviour. These results highlight the importance of the GSACUS as a foraging ground for pygmy blue whales inhabiting the eastern Indian Ocean and indicate the whales' migratory route to proposed breeding grounds off Indonesia. Information about the spatio-temporal scale of potential human impacts can now be used to protect this little-known subspecies of blue whale.

A continuous-time state-space model for rapid quality-control of Argos locations from animal-borne tags

Abstract: State-space models are important tools for quality control of error-prone animal movement data. The near real-time (within 24 h) capability of the Argos satellite system aids dynamic ocean management of human activities by informing when animals enter intensive use zones. This capability also facilitates use of ocean observations from animal-borne sensors in operational ocean forecasting models. Such near real-time data provision requires rapid, reliable quality control to deal with error-prone Argos locations. We formulate a continuous-time state-space model for the three types of Argos location data (Least-Squares, Kalman filter, and Kalman smoother), accounting for irregular timing of observations. Our model is deliberately simple to ensure speed and reliability for automated, near real-time quality control of Argos data. We validate the model by fitting to Argos data collected from 61 individuals across 7 marine vertebrates and compare model-estimated locations to GPS locations. Estimation accuracy varied among species with median Root Mean Squared Errors usually < 5 km and decreased with increasing data sampling rate and precision of Argos locations. Including a model parameter to inflate Argos error ellipse sizes resulted in more accurate location estimates. In some cases, the model appreciably improved the accuracy of the Argos Kalman smoother locations, which should not be possible if the smoother uses all available information. Our model provides quality-controlled locations from Argos Least-Squares or Kalman filter data with slightly better accuracy than Argos Kalman smoother data that are only available via reprocessing. Simplicity and ease of use make the model suitable both for automated quality control of near real-time Argos data and for manual use by researchers working with historical Argos data.

Cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce bycatch threats to cetaceans identified using return-on-investment analysis

Abstract: Globally, fisheries bycatch threatens the survival of many whale and dolphin species. Strategies for reducing bycatch can be expensive. Management is inclined to prioritize investment in actions that are inexpensive, but these may not be the most effective. We used an economic tool, return-on-investment, to identify cost-effective measures to reduce cetacean bycatch in the trawl, net, and line fisheries of Australia. We examined 3 management actions: spatial closures, acoustic deterrents, and gear modifications. We compared an approach for which the primary goal was to reduce the cost of bycatch reduction to fisheries with an approach that aims solely to protect whale and dolphin species. Based on cost-effectiveness and at a fine spatial resolution, we identified the management strategies across Australia that most effectively abated dolphin and whale bycatch. Although trawl-net modifications were the cheapest strategy overall, there were many locations where spatial closures were the most cost-effective solution, despite their high costs to fisheries, due to their effectiveness in reducing all fisheries interactions. Our method can be used to delineate strategies to reduce bycatch threats to mobile marine species across diverse fisheries at relevant spatial scales to improve conservation outcomes.

A citizen science approach to long‐term monitoring of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) off Sydney, Australia

Abstract: The Cape Solander Whale Migration Study is a citizen science project that annually counts northward migrating humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) off Cape Solander, Sydney, Australia. Dedicated observers have compiled a 20-year data set (1997-2017) of shore-based observations from Cape Solander's high vantage point. Using this long-term data set collected by citizen scientists, we sought to estimate the humpback whale population trend as it continues to recover postexploitation. We estimated an exponential growth rate of 0.099 (95% CI = 0.079-0.119) using a generalized linear model, based on observer effort (number of observation days) and number of whales observed, equating to 10% per annum growth in sightings since 1997. We found that favorable weather conditions for spotting whales off Cape Solander consisted of winds <30 km/hr from a southerly through a north westerly direction. Incidental observations of other cetacean species included the endangered blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) and data deficient species such as killer whales (Orcinus orca) and false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens). Citizen science-based studies can provide a cost-effective approach to monitoring wildlife over the time necessary to detect change in a population. Information obtained from citizen science projects like this may help inform policy makers responsible for State and Federal protection of cetaceans in Australian waters and beyond.

A Water Mass Classification Approach to Tracking Variability in the East Australian Current

Abstract: The East Australian Current (EAC) is a southward flowing western boundary current that transports relatively warm and nutrient-depleted subtropical water along Australia's east coast. The EAC is a highly variable system that is formed by temporally-varying mixtures of water in the Coral Sea that do not form a linear density gradient or conform to a set range of temperature and salinity values. It can therefore be difficult to track EAC dynamics across both space and time using traditional analytical approaches. In order to more accurately quantify variability and trends in penetration of the EAC we develop a novel machine-learning classification approach to quantify variability in coastal EAC dynamics along a latitudinal gradient within the EAC extension zone in southeastern Australia. Applying our method to data from a 22-year free running regional hydrodynamic model revealed significant decadal-scale changes to EAC dynamics in the region. The annual period (generally in the austral summer) when the EAC is the dominant water mass in the region increased by approximately 2 months over the model time series. The encroachment of the EAC's traditional period of summer dominance into winter may have significant ecological implications through the acceleration of poleward range extensions by vagrant tropical species, facilitation of community phase shifts from temperate to tropical assemblages, and a phenological shift in the timing of major phytoplankton blooms. These results highlight the need to further understand the rapid changes occurring within western boundary current systems, and illustrates how classification approaches may assist in uncovering patterns in these highly variable systems.