https://ccrma.stanford.edu/workshops/mir2009/references/ROCintro.pdf

An introduction to ROC analysis

A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0140525X00003435

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

In this review, we examine the oft-made claim that peer-relationship difficulties in childhood predict serious adjustment problems in later life. The article begins with a framework for conceptualizing and assessing children's peer difficulties and with a discussion of conceptual and methodological issues in longitudinal risk research. Following this, three indexes of problematic peer relationships (acceptance, aggressiveness, and shyness/withdrawal) are evaluated as predictors of three later outcomes (dropping out of school, criminality, and psychcpathology). The relation between peer difficulties and later maladjustment is examined in terms of both the consistency and strength of prediction. A review and analysis of the literature indicates general support for the hypothesis that children with poor peer adjustment are at risk for later life difficulties. Support is clearest for the outcomes of dropping out and criminality. It is also clearest for low acceptance and aggressiveness as predictors, whereas a link between shyness/withdrawal and later maladjustment has not yet been adequately tested. The article concludes with a critical discussion of the implicit models that have guided past research in this area and a set of recommendations for the next generation of research on the risk

Peer relations and later personal adjustment: Are low-accepted children at risk?

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The analytic system uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The experiential system is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it's safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=931686

Risk As Analysis and Risk As Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality

Social Frameworks: A New Use of Social Science in Law

Using a standardized schedule of questions, this study examined (a) the prevalence of self-report of violent thoughts by patients hospitalized for mental disorders compared with nonpatients, (b) the persistence of violent thoughts after discharge, and (c) the relation between patients' violent thoughts while hospitalized and violent acts within 20 weeks after hospital discharge. About 1/3 of the patients reported thoughts of violence while hospitalized, more than twice the proportion found among nonpatients. Reporting violent thoughts in hospital was significantly related to engaging in violent acts within 20 weeks after discharge for non-White patients, patients without major mental disorder but with substance abuse diagnoses, patients with high symptom severity, and patients whose reports of violent thoughts persisted after discharge. Reporting violent thoughts was significantly related to measures of psychopathy, anger, and impulsiveness.

/pdf/violent-thoughts-and-violent-behavior-following-5budf5pute.pdf

Violent thoughts and violent behavior following hospitalization for mental disorder.

The number of mental health courts in the United States is rapidly increasing, from one in 1997 to nearly 100 in 2004. However, to date there is comparatively little research regarding these specialty courts. The present study reports data on the referral and disposition decision-making processes of seven mental health courts. Information on all referrals to the seven courts over a three-month period was gathered. Results show that, in comparison with individuals involved in the criminal justice system, mental health court clients are more likely to be older, White, and women than individuals in the general criminal justice system. Furthermore, this over-representation occurs at the point of referral, rather than at the point of the court's decision to accept or reject a referral. In addition, the length of time from referral to diversion is much longer in these mental health courts than in other types of diversion programs. Implications of these findings are discussed.

From referral to disposition: case processing in seven mental health courts.

Assessment of competence to stand trial is a common evaluation that can have substantial consequences for defendants and the criminal justice system. Despite a voluminous literature, much remains unknown. An obstacle to progress in understanding what is better termed “adjudicative competence” is the absence of structured, standardized research measures for assessment of defendants. This article presents the legal framework, assessment strategy, instrument description, psychometric properties, and construct validation of the MacArthur Structured Assessment of the Competencies of Criminal Defendants (MacSAC-CD). The measures meet or exceed accepted indices of internal consistency, and interscorer agreement. Observed patterns of correlations among measures support the underlying theoretical structure of competence-related abilities. Moreover, the MacSAC-CD distinguishes groups of competent and incompetent defendants; reflects changes in competence status; and correlates positively with clinical judgments, negatively with psychopathology and impaired cognitive functioning, and negligibly with cynicism toward the justice system

The MacArthur Adjudicative Competence Study: Development and Validation of a Research Instrument

Objective: This study examined the public’s beliefs regarding the potential for harm to self and others and the public’s willingness to invoke coercive or legal means to ensure treatment of children. Methods: Using data from the National Stigma Study–Children (NSS-C), which presented vignettes to 1,152 individuals, the investigators compared public perceptions of the dangerousness of children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), major depression, asthma, and “daily troubles.” Multivariate analyses were used to examine the predictors of perceptions of dangerousness and the willingness to support legally enforced treatment of these conditions. Results: Children with ADHD and children with major depression were perceived (by 33% and 81% of the sample, respectively) as somewhat likely or very likely to be dangerous to themselves or others, compared with children with asthma (15%) or those with “daily troubles” (13%). Over one-third of the sample (35%) were willing to use legal means to force children with depression to see a clinician. However, even more (42%) endorsed forced treatment for a child with asthma. Furthermore, individuals who labeled the child as “mentally ill” were approximately twice as likely to report a potential for violence and five times as likely to support forced treatment. Conclusions: Large numbers of people in the United States link children’s mental health problems, particularly depression, to a potential for violence and support legally mandated treatment. These evaluations appear to reflect the stigma associated with mental illness and the public’s concern for parental responsibility. (Psychiatric Services 58:619–625, 2007) Special Section on the National Stigma Study–Children

https://ps.psychiatryonline.org/doi/pdf/10.1176/ps.2007.58.5.619

John Monahan

Papers

Social Frameworks: A New Use of Social Science in Law

Violent thoughts and violent behavior following hospitalization for mental disorder.

From referral to disposition: case processing in seven mental health courts.

The MacArthur Adjudicative Competence Study: Development and Validation of a Research Instrument

Perceived Dangerousness of Children With Mental Health Problems and Support for Coerced Treatment