Showing papers by "DNV GL published in 2013"

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society

Abstract: With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.

Will the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan reduce CO2 emissions? A comparison with ISO 50001 and the ISM Code

Abstract: The IMO Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) is the sole international regulatory instrument expected to affect rising CO2 emissions from shipping in the short-term. In this article, we discuss present gaps in the SEEMP guidelines through a comparison with the international standard for energy management systems, ISO 50001, and with the International Safety Management (ISM) Code, which sets requirements for safety management systems in shipping companies. We show that the SEEMP lacks crucial features found in typical management system standards, such as requirements on policy and management reviews. Moreover, best-practice in the form of the ISO 50001 addresses important aspects, such as monitoring, energy auditing, design, and procurement processes in much more detail. In the context of previous research on these instruments and on energy efficiency in general, we argue that these gaps may be detrimental to the success of the SEEMP, both from the societal perspective of CO2 abatement and from the perspective of companies’ success in energy management. This requires further attention by academia, policy-makers and industry.

Thermal comfort in commercial kitchens (RP-1469): Procedure and physical measurements (Part 1)

Abstract: The indoor climate in commercial kitchens is often unsatisfactory, and working conditions can have a significant effect on employees’ comfort and productivity. The type of establishment (fast food, casual, etc.) and climatic zone can influence thermal conditions in the kitchens. Moreover, the size and arrangement of the kitchen zones, appliances, etc., further complicate an evaluation of the indoor thermal environment in commercial kitchens. In general, comfort criteria are stipulated in international standards (e.g., ASHRAE 55 or ISO EN 7730), but are these standardized methods applicable to such environments as commercial kitchens? This article describes a data collection protocol based on measurements of physical and subjective parameters. The procedure was used to investigate more than 100 commercial kitchens in the United States in both summer and winter. The physical measurements revealed that there is a large range of kitchens environments and confirmed that employees are exposed to a warm-to-hot e...

A Simple Index of Trophic Status in Estuaries and Coastal Bays Based on Measurements of pH and Dissolved Oxygen

Abstract: Measurements of pH and dissolved oxygen saturation in summer from 90 Irish estuaries and coastal bays were used to develop a simple index of trophic state. The index is based on the assumption that large fluctuations in both these variables are likely to be a characteristic feature of eutrophication. In this paper, we use a simple index to capture the relative variation in both pH and dissolved oxygen saturation in each water body during a period of 3 years. We show that the index is in good agreement with other trophic status schemes and strongly correlated with parameters indicative of trophic state such as chlorophyll a and biochemical oxygen demand. We conclude that the index could be used as a simple screening tool to group individual water bodies into broad categories that reflect their trophic state.

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda, northern Italy

Abstract: Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.

CO2 abatement potential towards 2050 for shipping, including alternative fuels

Abstract: Background: Recent studies have demonstrated a cost-effective potential to reduce the CO2 emissions in the existing world shipping fleet by 15%, and by 30% for the 2030 fleet. Methods & results: CO2 abatement pathways for shipping towards 2050 have been modeled, using a new probabilistic model. In addition to measures analyzed in the past, the uptake of alternative fuels is modeled. The results show that with uptake of operational and technical measures, as well as biofuels and liquefied natural gas, the cost-effective CO2 reduction potential in 2050 is in the order of 50%. Conclusion: For shipping to substantially contribute to a 2°C pathway, a financial incentive for biofuel is one alterative, but nuclear power in large ships could also cut emissions drastically.

Reducing CO 2 from shipping – do non-CO 2 effects matter?

Abstract: . Shipping is a growing sector in the global economy, and it contributions to global CO2 emissions are expected to increase. CO2 emissions from the world shipping fleet will likely be regulated in the near future, and studies have shown that significant emission reductions can be achieved at low cost. Regulations are being discussed for both existing ships as well as for future additions to the fleet. In this study a plausible CO2 emission reduction inventory is constructed for the cargo fleet existing in 2010, as well as for container ships, bulk ships and tankers separately. In the reduction inventories, CO2 emissions are reduced by 25–32% relative to baseline by applying 15 technical and operational emission reduction measures in accordance with a ship-type-specific cost-effectiveness criterion, and 9 other emission compounds are changed as a technical implication of reducing CO2. The overall climate and environmental effects of the changes to all 10 emission components in the reduction inventory are assessed using a chemical transport model, radiative forcing (RF) models and a simple climate model. We find substantial environmental and health benefits with up to 5% reduction in surface ozone levels, 15% reductions in surface sulfate and 10% reductions in wet deposition of sulfate in certain regions exposed to heavy ship traffic. The major ship types show distinctly different contributions in specific locations. For instance, the container fleet contributes 50% of the sulfate decline on the west coast of North America. The global radiative forcing from a 1 yr emission equal to the difference between baseline and reduction inventory shows an initial strong positive forcing from non-CO2 compounds. This warming effect is due to reduced cooling by aerosols and methane. After approximately 25 yr, the non-CO2 forcing is balanced by the CO2 forcing. For the global mean temperature change, we find a shift from warming to cooling after approximately 60 yr. The major ship types show significant differences in the short-term radiative forcing. For instance, the direct SO4 forcing from tankers is 30% higher than for container and bulk. The net long-term effects on RF are similar due to similar CO2 forcing. We assess an emission scenario where the reduction inventory is sustained on the fleet as it steadily diminishes over time due to scrapping and disappears in 2040. We find a net temperature increase lasting until approximately 2080. We conclude that changes in non-CO2 emission does matter significantly if reductions of CO2 emissions are made on the year 2010 cargo shipping fleet. In sum, we find that emission changes motivated by CO2 reductions in shipping will be beneficial from a long-term climate perspective, and that there are positive environmental and health effects identified as concentrations of key short-lived pollutants are reduced.

Efficient Mooring Line Fatigue Analysis Using a Hybrid Method Time Domain Simulation Scheme

Abstract: Dynamic analyses of mooring line systems are computationally expensive. Over the last decades an extensive variety of methods to reduce this computational cost have been suggested. One method that has shown promising preliminary results is a hybrid method which combines finite element analysis and artificial neural networks (ANN). The present study presents a novel strategy for selecting, arranging and normalizing training data for an ANN. With this approach one ANN can be trained to perform high speed dynamic response prediction for all fatigue relevant sea states and cover both wave frequency motion and slow drift motion. The method is tested on a mooring line system of a floating offshore platform. After training a full fatigue analysis is carried out. The results show that the ANN with high precision provides top tension force histories two orders of magnitude faster than a full dynamic analysis.Copyright © 2013 by ASME

Optique: OBDA Solution for Big Data

Abstract: Accessing the relevant data in Big Data scenarios is increasingly difficult both for end-user and IT-experts, due to the volume, variety, and velocity dimensions of Big Data.This brings a hight cost overhead in data access for large enterprises. For instance, in the oil and gas industry, IT-experts spend 30-70% of their time gathering and assessing the quality of data [1]. The Optique project ( http://www.optique-project.eu/ ) advocates a next generation of the well known Ontology-Based Data Access (OBDA) approach to address the Big Data dimensions and in particular the data access problem. The project aims at solutions that reduce the cost of data access dramatically.

Guidelines for CFD Simulations of Spar VIM

Abstract: Vortex-Induced Motion (VIM), which occurs as a consequence of exposure to strong current such as Loop Current eddies in the Gulf of Mexico, is one of the critical factors in the design of the mooring and riser systems for deepwater offshore structures such as Spars and multi-column Deep Draft Floaters (DDFs). The VIM response can have a significant impact on the fatigue life of mooring and riser components. In particular, Steel Catenary Risers (SCRs) suspended from the floater can be sensitive to VIM-induced fatigue at their mudline touchdown points.Industry currently relies on scaled model testing to determine VIM for design. However, scaled model tests are limited in their ability to represent VIM for the full scale structure since they are generally not able to represent the full scale Reynolds number and also cannot fully represent waves effects, nonlinear mooring system behavior or sheared and unsteady currents. The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to simulate VIM can more realistically represent the full scale Reynolds number, waves effects, mooring system, and ocean currents than scaled physical model tests.This paper describes a set of VIM CFD simulations for a Spar hard tank with appurtenances and their comparison against a high quality scaled model test. The test data showed considerable sensitivity to heading angle relative to the incident flow as well as to reduced velocity. The simulated VIM-induced sway motion was compared against the model test data for different reduced velocities (Vm) and Spar headings. Agreement between CFD and model test VIM-induced sway motion was within 9% over the full range of Vm and headings. Use of the Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES, Shur et al 2008) turbulence model gives the best agreement with the model test measurements. Guidelines are provided for meshing and time step/solver setting selection.Copyright © 2013 by ASME

Reliability Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade Section Using the Model Correction Factor Method: Numerical Study and Validation

Abstract: Reliability analysis of fiber-reinforced composite structures is a relatively unexplored field, and it is therefore expected that engineers and researchers trying to apply such an approach will meet certain challenges until more knowledge is accumulated. While doing the analyses included in the present paper, the authors have experienced some of the possible pitfalls on the way to complete a precise and robust reliability analysis for layered composites. Results showed that in order to obtain accurate reliability estimates it is necessary to account for the various failure modes described by the composite failure criteria. Each failure mode has been considered in a separate component reliability analysis, followed by a system analysis which gives the total probability of failure of the structure. The Model Correction Factor method used in connection with FORM (First-Order Reliability Method) proved to be a fast and efficient way to calculate the reliability index of a complex composite structure.

Validation of PHAST Dispersion Model as Required for USA LNG Siting Applications

Abstract: PHMSA in consultation with FERC issued guidance relating to approval in the USA of atmospheric dispersion models for LNG siting applications. This guidance includes a Model Evaluation Protocol (MEP), and an associated experimental database against which the model needs to be validated. Approval was obtained for the PHAST dispersion model UDM, and this paper summarises the submission of this model according to the above PHMSA guidance.

Ultimate strength prediction by semi-analytical analysis of stiffened plates with various boundary conditions

Abstract: Semi-analytical elastic methods for stiffened plate analysis are computationally very efficient. In addition to eigenvalue analysis, such methods may also offer a viable approach for the prediction of ultimate strength limits (USLs) of the plates when combined with appropriate strength criteria. In this paper, existing strength criteria are discussed, and extended criteria proposed for plates with various stiffener arrangements and boundary conditions such as full out-of-plane supports along all edges or plates with a free or partially stiffened edge. The extended criteria reflect in a simplified manner the effect of redistribution of stresses due to the formation of local plastic regions at stiffeners, supporting edges and in the plate interior. The equilibrium path is traced using large deflection theory and the Rayleigh–Ritz approach on an incremental form. The approach is able to account for the reserve strength of slender plates in the postbuckling region. With the considered criteria included, good agreement is obtained with results from fully nonlinear finite element analyses for different support conditions and for a variety of plate and stiffener dimensions.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

Abstract: Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

Deepwater pipelines – status, challenges and future trends:

Abstract: The demand for energy is steadily increasing and, at least for the coming decades, the world has to rely on oil and gas to address this need. Most of the easiest accessible offshore petroleum reservoirs have been discovered and a great part developed over the last six decades. Thus, development of new oil and gas fields faces a lot of challenges as most of them are in remote areas, in deep waters and/or in areas with extreme environments like the Arctic region. One of the major trends in the offshore petroleum industry points towards deeper waters (e.g. outside West Africa, the Brazilian Pre-Salt developments and in the Gulf of Mexico). This trend also includes increased use of subsea installations instead of platforms, more subsea processing and increased use of pipelines to transport the hydrocarbons to shore or into a pipeline grid.This paper addresses some of the challenges pipeline design, installation and operation may face in deep and ultra-deep waters. The main design challenge is related to the h...

An Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life (ADDQOL) in Older Patients with Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in Slovenia.

Abstract: Objective This article reports a study to measure diabetes-dependent quality of life (QOL) in older Slovenian patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2). Methods A cross-sectional study of older (age ≥ 65 years) patients with DMT2 at outpatient diabetic centers was conducted in all regions in Slovenia. The Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire was carried out between January and May 2012. Statistical analysis was performed by using IBM SPSS Statistics software, version 18.0. Results After exclusion of noneligible respondents, a total of 285 respondents were included in the analysis, which represented a 57% response rate. Lower QOL was significantly connected to a heart attack episode (odds ratio 2.42; 95% confidence interval 1.06–5.20) and to the perception of not having diabetes under control (odds ratio 0.36; 95% confidence interval 0.18–0.69). Eleven (3.9%) patients reported no impact of DMT2 on their QOL at all, while in the remaining respondents, particular reference was put to the effects on freedom to eat, dependency on others, and family life. There was no significant difference between the older people living in urban and rural areas. Conclusions The findings of the present study highlight the impact of DMT2 on QOL. DMT2 imposes a personal burden on individuals. Information on the QOL of older patients with diabetes is important to Slovenian policymakers and family physicians to identify and implement appropriate interventions for achieving better management of diabetes and ultimately improving the QOL of patients with diabetes.

Emission characteristics of GTL fuel as an alternative to conventional marine gas oil

Abstract: The study examine the gaseous, smoke and particulate matter emission characteristics of a turbocharged heavy-duty diesel engine operated on conventional marine gas oil and gas-to-liquid Fischer–Tropsch fuel under modes of propulsion and generator operation. The gas-to-liquid showed average reductions up to 19% in nitrogen oxides, 25% in carbon monoxide, 4% in carbon dioxide and 30% in smoke with slight increase in unburned hydrocarbon emissions. Particulate number concentrations for gas-to-liquid were up to 21% higher, whereas particulates mass showed a 16% decrease at medium and high loads, while increasing by 12–15% under lower load conditions. Very low aromatic content of gas-to-liquid fuel and nearly zero sulfur level are responsible for particulate reduction.

Detection of off gassing from Li-ion batteries

Abstract: Off gas from Li-ion batteries is becoming a growing concern because the volatile organics emitted are flammable and their unpredictable release represents a safety risk. Recent safety incidents involving Li-based battery chemistries have occurred across automotive, marine, electric grid, and aviation sectors and indicate a need to understand battery failure and the implications for control of the thermal event and the off gas hazard. The work presented summarizes the early results of an ARPA-e AMPED funded study (2012-2015) to qualify a novel sensor for off gas detection. Early results indicate the sensor can detect off gas prior to thermal events. The remainder of the program will address whether the sensor can detect off gas prior to significant failure events and whether battery functionality can be preserved after abuse events. In addition, with enough prior warning from the sensor there is a desire to determine whether it provides suitable control at the fringes of battery performance and also acts as a state of health sensor. The implications for off gas monitoring will be investigated in several contexts including life extension, second life batteries, and the use of batteries in new environments with varying safety considerations.

The Northeast, Northwest and Transpolar Passages in comparison

Abstract: The purpose of this chapter is to make a comparison of the prospects of commercial shipping operations along the Northeast, Northwest and Transpolar Passages as expressed in the issues discussed in previous chapters: geopolitics; resources and modes of transportation; environmental challenges; infrastructure; ocean law; jurisdictional matters and indigenous peoples. The comparison will be conducted on the level of sub-issue areas, which basically are identical to the main section headlines of the individual chapters. These sub-areas will be assessed and compared for each of the three Passages, with the aim of deciding which will provide an image of what the state-of-the-art of regional shipping is for the Arctic Ocean as such, for the individual Passages and for each of the sub-issue areas.

An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

Abstract: Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time The overall risk is quantified in monetary terms expressed as expected annual damage The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future The result from the ID was extended with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus Drainage system improvements are planned for the area Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk for flooding increases over time, and the benefits of implementing flood adaptation measures