Showing papers by "Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology published in 2022"

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract: Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Plant–insect chemical communication in ecological communities: An information theory perspective

Abstract: Cross-species communication, where signals are sent by one species and perceived by others, is one of the most intriguing types of communication that functionally links different species to form complex ecological networks. Global change and human activity can affect communication by increasing fluctuations in species composition and phenology, altering signal profiles and intensity, and introducing noise. So far, most studies on cross-species communication have focused on a few specific species isolated from ecological communities. Scaling up investigations of cross-species communication to the community level is currently hampered by a lack of conceptual and practical methodologies. Here, we propose an interdisciplinary framework based on information theory to investigate mechanisms shaping cross-species communication at the community level. We use plants and insects, the cornerstones of most ecosystems, as a showcase and focus on chemical communication as the key communication channel. We first introduce some basic concepts of information theory, then we illustrate information patterns in plant–insect chemical communication, followed by a further exploration of how to integrate information theory into ecological and evolutionary processes to form testable mechanistic hypotheses. We conclude by highlighting the importance of community-level information as a means to better understand the maintenance and workings of ecological systems, especially during rapid global change.

A map of global peatland extent created using machine learning (Peat-ML)

Abstract: Abstract. Peatlands store large amounts of soil carbon and freshwater, constituting an important component of the global carbon and hydrologic cycles. Accurate information on the global extent and distribution of peatlands is presently lacking but is needed by Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate the effects of climate change on the global carbon and hydrologic balance. Here, we present Peat-ML, a spatially continuous global map of peatland fractional coverage generated using machine learning (ML) techniques suitable for use as a prescribed geophysical field in an ESM. Inputs to our statistical model follow drivers of peatland formation and include spatially distributed climate, geomorphological and soil data, and remotely sensed vegetation indices. Available maps of peatland fractional coverage for 14 relatively extensive regions were used along with mapped ecoregions of non-peatland areas to train the statistical model. In addition to qualitative comparisons to other maps in the literature, we estimated model error in two ways. The first estimate used the training data in a blocked leave-one-out cross-validation strategy designed to minimize the influence of spatial autocorrelation. That approach yielded an average r2 of 0.73 with a root-mean-square error and mean bias error of 9.11 % and −0.36 %, respectively. Our second error estimate was generated by comparing Peat-ML against a high-quality, extensively ground-truthed map generated by Ducks Unlimited Canada for the Canadian Boreal Plains region. This comparison suggests our map to be of comparable quality to mapping products generated through more traditional approaches, at least for boreal peatlands.

Modeling streamflow variability at the regional scale: (1) perceptual model development through signature analysis

Abstract: • We present a systematic top-down approach to develop a distributed perceptual model. • The approach is indicated for the regional scale where fieldwork is impractical. • The approach is demonstrated using 26 gauged subcatchments in the Moselle catchment. • The model captures dominant climate and landscape controls on streamflow variability. • The approach uses commonly available data and can be applied elsewhere. Perceptual catchment models are a key first step towards hydrologic synthesis and provide the process foundation of predictive models. However, their development is usually limited to the headwater catchment scale where field work can be done. Here we develop a perceptual model approach for a regional scale catchment. We use a systematic “top-down” approach based on an expert-driven interpretation of the streamflow responses of nested subcatchments. This approach complements the traditional “bottom-up” perceptual model development based on fieldwork observations, which is impractical at the regional scale due to measurement limitations. As an example to illustrate our approach and demonstrate its feasibility, we use the 27,100 km 2 Moselle catchment, with 26 gauged subcatchments. Our perceptual model of the Moselle catchment presents a description of dominant processes that we consider a-posteriori reasonable, but not a-priori obvious: where precipitation, much more than evaporation or groundwater exchange controls the spatial variability of average streamflow, lithology influences the partitioning between baseflow and quickflow, and topography and land use control hydrograph lag times. A striking feature of our analysis is the rather minor role that vegetation and soil appear to play in streamflow spatial variability at the scale of our inquiry. We use our perceptual model to build a distributed yet parsimonious hydrological model in Part 2 of this paper series. Although the perceptual model is specific for the Moselle, we hope that the perceptual model approach used here can be helpful to others working in large catchments in different hydroclimates, where other factors will dominate.

Seasonality of density currents induced by differential cooling

Abstract: Abstract. When lakes experience surface cooling, the shallow littoral region cools faster than the deep pelagic waters. The lateral density gradient resulting from this differential cooling can trigger a cold downslope density current that intrudes at the base of the mixed layer during stratified conditions. This process is known as a thermal siphon (TS). TSs flush the littoral region and increase water exchange between nearshore and pelagic zones; thus, they may potentially impact the lake ecosystem. Past observations of TSs in lakes are limited to specific cooling events. Here, we focus on the seasonality of TS-induced lateral transport and investigate how seasonally varying forcing conditions control the occurrence and intensity of TSs. This research interprets 1-year-long TS observations from Rotsee (Switzerland), a small wind-sheltered temperate lake with an elongated shallow region. We demonstrate that TSs occur for more than 50 % of the days from late summer to winter and efficiently flush the littoral region within ∼10 h. We further quantify the occurrence, intensity, and timing of TSs over seasonal timescales. The conditions for TS formation become optimal in autumn when the duration of the cooling phase is longer than the time necessary to initiate a TS. The decrease in surface cooling by 1 order of magnitude from summer to winter reduces the lateral transport by a factor of 2. We interpret this transport seasonality with scaling relationships relating the daily averaged cross-shore velocity, unit-width discharge, and flushing timescale to the surface buoyancy flux, mixed-layer depth, and lake bathymetry. The timing and duration of diurnal flushing by TSs relate to daily heating and cooling phases. The longer cooling phase in autumn increases the flushing duration and delays the time of maximal flushing relative to the summer diurnal cycle. Given their scalability, the results reported here can be used to assess the relevance of TSs in other lakes and reservoirs.

Dynamic modelling provides new insights into development and maintenance of Lake Kivu's density stratification

Abstract: Lake Kivu is a 485 m deep, Central-East African rift lake with huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane dissolved in its stably stratified deep waters. In view of future large-scale methane extraction, one-dimensional numerical modelling is an important and computationally inexpensive tool to analyze the evolution of stratification and the content of gases in Lake Kivu. For this purpose, we coupled the physical lake model Simstrat to the biogeochemical library AED2. Compared to an earlier modelling approach, this coupled approach offers several key improvements, most importantly the dynamic evaluation of mixing processes over the whole water column, including a parameterization for double-diffusive transport, and the density-dependent stratification of groundwater inflows. The coupled model successfully reproduces today's near steady-state of Lake Kivu, and we demonstrate that a complete mixing event ∼2000 years ago is compatible with today's physical and biogeochemical state.

Gamifying and evaluating problem structuring: A card game workshop for generating decision objectives

Abstract: Serious games, gamification, or game-based interventions are increasingly used as tools to aid participatory decision-making processes, but their evaluation is often not very rigorous. Therefore, it is still unclear whether game-based interventions are really beneficial. We focused on the following overarching question: how effective are game-based interventions specifically designed to support decision-making processes. We used an illustrative case to reflect on this question. Using a published framework proposing that design processes of game-based interventions and their evaluation are intertwined, we designed simultaneously (1) a game-based intervention, specifically a card game and a workshop structure in which this card game is to be used, and (2) its evaluation procedure, formulating evaluation questions and proposing measure instruments based on the literature. We pre-tested the evaluation procedure in a small pilot study with 10 students. We illustrate the use of the design framework for an intervention to generate objectives in a decision-making process about sustainable wastewater management. Through our illustrative case, we identify future research opportunities about designing game-based interventions and evaluating their effectiveness. We found that it is possible to address the dual challenge of game-based interventions for participatory decision-making processes: (1) designing an informative and engaging game-based intervention without telling participants what to think and (2) designing a tailored evaluation procedure. Designing the game-based intervention and its evaluation simultaneously is valuable, because both are strongly intertwined. However, conducting the evaluation is demanding and requires the collaborative efforts of scientists, including across disciplinary boundaries. For instance, the data collection effort could be distributed among different research groups to increase sample size. This would allow including control treatment(s) and covering the variation span of the confounding factors more broadly. All material is made openly available to foster collaborative future research.

Blue and green food webs respond differently to elevation and land use

Abstract: While aquatic (blue) and terrestrial (green) food webs are parts of the same landscape, it remains unclear whether they respond similarly to shared environmental gradients. We use empirical community data from hundreds of sites across Switzerland and a synthesis of interaction information in the form of a metaweb to show that inferred blue and green food webs have different structural and ecological properties along elevation and among various land-use types. Specifically, in green food webs, their modular structure increases with elevation and the overlap of consumers' diet niche decreases, while the opposite pattern is observed in blue food webs. Such differences between blue and green food webs are particularly pronounced in farmland-dominated habitats, indicating that anthropogenic habitat modification modulates the climatic effects on food webs but differently in blue versus green systems. These findings indicate general structural differences between blue and green food webs and suggest their potential divergent future alterations through land-use or climatic changes.

Modeling streamflow variability at the regional scale: (2) Development of a bespoke distributed conceptual model

Abstract: • We present a systematic approach to distributed hydrological model development. • The approach is based on controlled model comparisons within a top-down framework. • A perceptual model is used to guide the controlled model comparison experiment. • Key streamflow signatures are captured by a 12 parameters distributed model. • The model development process favors the contribution of the experimentalist. Regional scale distributed conceptual models are typically developed with a bottom-up approach, which is process-inclusive but prone to over-parameterization. Here we demonstrate a proof of concept top-down approach for distributed conceptual model development, intended to emphasize dominant streamflow generating processes and to fulfill the principle of model parsimony. A key challenge in applying the top-down approach to distributed model development is devising a model comparison experiment that is both informative and limited to a few model alternatives. Here, we show how such model comparisons can be informed by a perceptual model of key processes that control streamflow response variability at the regional scale. We demonstrate our approach for the 27,100 km 2 Moselle catchment, using the perceptual model developed in Part 1 of this two-part paper. We develop 5 distributed model structures for simulating daily streamflow at 26 subcatchments, and validate them on subcatchments that are not used during the calibration process. Our model comparisons illustrate how the spatial distribution of precipitation, lithology and topography affect the simulation of key signatures of streamflow response variability in the Moselle catchment, providing a basis to justify model decisions. Our analyses show how a minimally parameterized distributed model, with 12 calibration parameters, matches signatures of streamflow average ( r = 0.96), baseflow index ( r = 0.86), and hydrograph lag time (correct at 22 out of 26 subcatchments). Our proposed top-down approach contributes to improving distributed model development strategies, and can be used to develop parsimonious process based regional models elsewhere.

Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in Freshwater Systems

Abstract: Eco-evolutionary dynamics encompasses the simultaneous reciprocal interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes. We discuss how eco-evolutionary dynamics can be detected, and showcase five key examples of eco-evolutionary dynamics in freshwater systems as assessed in the laboratory, in the field, and in unconfined nature. We demonstrate the ubiquity of eco-evolutionary dynamics in freshwater systems with focusing on the ecologically important model organism Daphnia. Understanding when and how eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks occur in natural systems is important as they markedly change the structure and functioning of aquatic systems, and their responses to local and global environmental change.

The importance of indirect effects of climate change adaptations on alpine and pre‐alpine freshwater systems

Abstract: Freshwater is vital to much life on Earth and is an essential resource for humans. Climate change, however, dramatically changes freshwater systems and reduces water quality, poses a risk to drinking water availability and has severe impacts on aquatic ecosystems and their biodiversity. The direct effects of climate change, such as increased temperatures and higher frequency of extreme meteorological events, interact with human responses to climate change, which we refer to here as ‘indirect effects’. The latter possibly have even greater impact than the direct effects of climate change. Specifically, changes in land-use practices as responses to climate change, such as adjusted cropping regimes or a shift to renewable hydroelectricity to mitigate climate change, can very strongly affect freshwater ecosystems. Hitherto, these indirect effects and the possibility of idiosyncratic outcomes are under-recognized. Here, we synthesize knowledge and identify threats to freshwater environments in alpine and pre-alpine regions, which are particularly affected by climate change. We focus on the effects of adapted agriculture and hydropower production on freshwater quality and ecological status, as these examples have strong indirect effects that interact with direct effects of climate change (e.g., water temperature, droughts, isolation of populations). We outline how failure to effectively account for indirect effects associated with human responses to climate change may exacerbate direct climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. If managed properly, however, human responses to indirect effects offer potential for rapid and implementable leverage to mitigate some of the direct climate change effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better address looming risks, policy- and decisionmakers must account for indirect effects and incorporate them into restoration planning and the respective sectorial policies.

Patterns and drivers of water quality changes associated with dams in the Tropical Andes

Abstract: Abstract. The Tropical Andes is a biodiversity hotspot facing pressure from planned and ongoing hydropower development. However, the effects of dams on river ecosystems of the region as mediated by physico-chemical changes to water quality are poorly known. Colombia is unique among its peers in South America for managing central public environmental databases, including surface water quality data sets associated with environmental monitoring of dams. To assess the relationship between hydropower and Colombian river conditions, we analyze monitoring data, focusing on oxygen availability, thermal regimes and sediment losses because these properties are influenced directly by river damming and impose fundamental constraints on the structure of downstream aquatic ecosystems. We find that most Colombian dams seasonally reduce concentrations of total suspended solids by large percentages (50–99 %) through sediment trapping and, via discharge of warm reservoir surface waters, seasonally increase river temperatures by 2 to 4 °C with respect to upstream conditions. A subset of dams generates downstream hypoxia (<4 mg L-1) and water 2 to 5 °C colder than inflows—both processes driven by the turbination and discharge of cold and anoxic hypolimnetic waters during periods of reservoir stratification. Reliance on monitoring data likely leads us to under-detect impacts because many rivers are only sampled once or twice per year and cannot capture temporal shifts across seasons and days (i.e. in response to hydropeaking). Despite these blind spots, the monitoring data point to some opportunities for planners and hydropower companies to mitigate downstream ecological impacts. These findings affirm the scientific utility and importance of environmental monitoring schemes associated with hydrologic infrastructure in developing countries.

Actors in forums: work input and different types of benefits

Abstract: Abstract Forums provide venues where different actors from the public administration sector, the interest group sector, or the research sector jointly discuss an issue of common interest. This article analyses which types of benefits are related to actors’ investing working time to forums. Actors’ dedication and work are basic predicates for forums to be able to produce outputs. The analysis of members of eight forums dealing with habitat and natural hazard governance in Switzerland suggests that actors participating in forums attribute more importance to exchange benefits, corresponding to opportunities of interaction with other actors – than to policy benefits – corresponding to opportunities for actors to influence policy or practice. However, more working time is invested by actors that lend importance to individual benefits – as opposed to collective benefits. These findings are important for understanding why actors provide work for forums in collaborative and polycentric governance systems.

Recent Ice Trends in Swiss Mountain Lakes: 20-year Analysis of MODIS Imagery

Abstract: Abstract Depleting lake ice is a climate change indicator, just like sea-level rise or glacial retreat. Monitoring Lake Ice Phenology (LIP) is useful because long-term freezing and thawing patterns serve as sentinels to understand regional and global climate change. We report a study for the Oberengadin region of Switzerland, where several small- and medium-sized mountain lakes are located. We observe the LIP events, such as freeze-up, break-up and ice cover duration, across two decades (2000–2020) from optical satellite images. We analyse the time series of MODIS imagery by estimating spatially resolved maps of lake ice for these Alpine lakes with supervised machine learning. To train the classifier we rely on reference data annotated manually based on webcam images. From the ice maps, we derive long-term LIP trends. Since the webcam data are only available for two winters, we cross-check our results against the operational MODIS and VIIRS snow products. We find a change in complete freeze duration of $$-\,0.76$$ - 0.76 and $$-\,0.89$$ - 0.89 days per annum for lakes Sils and Silvaplana, respectively. Furthermore, we observe plausible correlations of the LIP trends with climate data measured at nearby meteorological stations. We notice that mean winter air temperature has a negative correlation with the freeze duration and break-up events and a positive correlation with the freeze-up events. Additionally, we observe a strong negative correlation of sunshine during the winter months with the freeze duration and break-up events.

Evaluation of primer pairs for eDNA‐based assessment of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera across a biogeographically diverse region

Abstract: Macroinvertebrates serve as key indicators in ecological assessments of aquatic ecosystems, where the composition and richness of their communities are indicative of environmental and anthropogenic change. Established monitoring of macroinvertebrates is expensive and time-consuming, and relies on expert taxonomic knowledge. In contrast, biomonitoring based on molecular tools can support faster characterization of aquatic communities but needs validation for the target taxonomic groups and the study region. Here, we used data from a biomonitoring program covering a large biogeographic gradient to compare the routine kick-net method with eDNA metabarcoding. We used two primer pairs targeting COI, one targeting a broad metazoan spectrum (mICOIintF/jgHCO2198) and another more recently developed primer pair optimized for the detection of freshwater invertebrates (fwhF2/EPTDr2n). We used the data of the macroinvertebrate monitoring with a focus on the orders of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera across 92 rivers in Switzerland, covering four continental drainage basins and an elevational range from 198 to 1650 m a.s.l. Across all sample sites, the kick-net detected more distinct taxa than either of the metabarcoding approaches. At a site level, however, both primer pairs detected on average more species. Comparing both primer pairs, the fwhF2/EPTDr2n primer pair captured more species assigned to the indicator groups Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, and showed a significantly larger overlap with the kick-net method. However, the community composition still varied significantly among the different metabarcoding approaches. Fewer Trichoptera species were recovered by eDNA, whereas the fwhF2/EPTDr2n primer pair detected more Plecopterans than the other two approaches. This study highlights the importance of the optimization and validation of novel molecular approaches under consideration of the target organismal group and the study area.

Bottom‐up effect of host protective symbionts on parasitoid diversity: Limited evidence from two field experiments

Abstract: Protective symbionts can provide effective and specific protection to their hosts. This protection can differ between different symbiont strains with each strain providing protection against certain components of the parasite and pathogen community their host faces. Protective symbionts are especially well known from aphids where, among other functions, they provide protection against different parasitoid wasps. However, most of the evidence for this protection comes from laboratory experiments. Our aim was to understand how consistent protection is across different symbiont strains under natural field conditions and whether symbiont diversity enhanced the species diversity of colonizing parasitoids, as could be expected from the specificity of their protection. We used experimental colonies of the black bean aphid Aphis fabae to investigate symbiont-conferred protection under natural field conditions over two seasons. Colonies differed only in their symbiont composition, carrying either no symbionts, a single strain of the protective symbiont Hamiltonella defensa, or a mixture of three H. defensa strains. These aphid colonies were exposed to natural parasitoid communities in the field. Subsequently, we determined the parasitoids hatched from each aphid colony. The evidence for a protective effect of H. defensa was limited and inconsistent between years, and aphid colonies harbouring multiple symbiont strains did not support a more diverse parasitoid community. Instead, parasitoid diversity tended to be highest in the absence of H. defensa. Symbiont-conferred protection, although a strong and repeatable effect under laboratory conditions may not always cause the predicted bottom-up effects under natural conditions in the field.