Showing papers in "Earth, Planets and Space in 2016"

Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground observatories as estimated in the CHAOS-6 geomagnetic field model

Abstract: We use more than 2 years of magnetic data from the Swarm mission, and monthly means from 160 ground observatories as available in March 2016, to update the CHAOS time-dependent geomagnetic field model. The new model, CHAOS-6, provides information on time variations of the core-generated part of the Earth’s magnetic field between 1999.0 and 2016.5. We present details of the secular variation (SV) and secular acceleration (SA) from CHAOS-6 at Earth’s surface and downward continued to the core surface. At Earth’s surface, we find evidence for positive acceleration of the field intensity in 2015 over a broad area around longitude 90°E that is also seen at ground observatories such as Novosibirsk. At the core surface, we are able to map the SV up to at least degree 16. The radial field SA at the core surface in 2015 is found to be largest at low latitudes under the India–South-East Asia region, under the region of northern South America, and at high northern latitudes under Alaska and Siberia. Surprisingly, there is also evidence for significant SA in the central Pacific region, for example near Hawaii where radial field SA is observed on either side of a jerk in 2014. On the other hand, little SV or SA has occurred over the past 17 years in the southern polar region. Inverting for a quasi-geostrophic core flow that accounts for this SV, we obtain a prominent planetary-scale, anti-cyclonic, gyre centred on the Atlantic hemisphere. We also find oscillations of non-axisymmetric, azimuthal, jets at low latitudes, for example close to 40°W, that may be responsible for localized SA oscillations. In addition to scalar data from Orsted, CHAMP, SAC-C and Swarm, and vector data from Orsted, CHAMP and Swarm, CHAOS-6 benefits from the inclusion of along-track differences of scalar and vector field data from both CHAMP and the three Swarm satellites, as well as east–west differences between the lower pair of Swarm satellites, Alpha and Charlie. Moreover, ground observatory SV estimates are fit to a Huber-weighted rms level of 3.1 nT/year for the eastward components and 3.8 and 3.7 nT/year for the vertical and southward components. We also present an update of the CHAOS high-degree lithospheric field, making use of along-track differences of CHAMP scalar and vector field data to produce a new static field model that agrees well with the MF7 field model out to degree 110.

Strong ground motion in the Kathmandu Valley during the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

Abstract: On 25 April 2015, a large earthquake of Mw 7.8 occurred along the Main Himalayan Thrust fault in central Nepal. It was caused by a collision of the Indian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The epicenter was near the Gorkha region, 80 km northwest of Kathmandu, and the rupture propagated toward east from the epicentral region passing through the sediment-filled Kathmandu Valley. This event resulted in over 8000 fatalities, mostly in Kathmandu and the adjacent districts. We succeeded in observing strong ground motions at our four observation sites (one rock site and three sedimentary sites) in the Kathmandu Valley during this devastating earthquake. While the observed peak ground acceleration values were smaller than the predicted ones that were derived from the use of a ground motion prediction equation, the observed peak ground velocity values were slightly larger than the predicted ones. The ground velocities observed at the rock site (KTP) showed a simple velocity pulse, resulting in monotonic-step displacements associated with the permanent tectonic offset. The vertical ground velocities observed at the sedimentary sites had the same pulse motions that were observed at the rock site. In contrast, the horizontal ground velocities as well as accelerations observed at three sedimentary sites showed long duration with conspicuous long-period oscillations, due to the valley response. The horizontal valley response was characterized by large amplification (about 10) and prolonged oscillations. However, the predominant period and envelope shape of their oscillations differed from site to site, indicating a complicated basin structure. Finally, on the basis of the velocity response spectra, we show that the horizontal long-period oscillations on the sedimentary sites had enough destructive power to damage high-rise buildings with natural periods of 3 to 5 s.

Source rupture processes of the foreshock and mainshock in the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence estimated from the kinematic waveform inversion of strong motion data

Abstract: The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence started with an MJMA 6.5 foreshock occurring along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, central Kyushu, Japan, and the MJMA 7.3 mainshock occurred just 28 h after the foreshock. We analyzed the source rupture processes of the foreshock and mainshock by using the kinematic waveform inversion technique on strong motion data. The foreshock was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip occurring on a nearly vertical fault plane along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, and it had two large-slip areas: one near the hypocenter and another at a shallow depth. The rupture of the mainshock started from the deep portion of a northwest-dipping fault plane along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, then continued to transfer to the Futagawa fault. Most of the significant slip occurred on the Futagawa fault, and the shallow portion of the Hinagu fault also had a relatively large slip. The slip amount on the shallowest subfaults along the Futagawa fault was approximately 1–4 m, which is consistent with the emergence of surface breaks associated with this earthquake. Right-lateral strike-slip dominated on the fault segment along the Hinagu fault, but normal-slip components were estimated to make a significant contribution on the fault segment along the Futagawa fault. The large fault-parallel displacements recorded at two near-fault strong motion stations coincided with the spatiotemporal pattern of the fault slip history during the mainshock. The spatial relationship between the rupture areas of the foreshock and mainshock implies a complex fault structure in this region.

Characteristics of the surface ruptures associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, central Kyushu, Japan

Abstract: The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence started with a M J (Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude) 6.5 event on April 14, and culminated in a M J 7.3 event on April 16. Associated with the sequence, approximately 34-km-long surface ruptures appeared along the eastern part of the Futagawa fault zone and the northernmost part of the Hinagu fault zone. We carried out an urgent field investigation soon after the earthquake to map the extent and displacement of surface ruptures with the following results. (1) The rupture zone generally consisted of a series of left-stepping en echelon arrays of discontinuous fault traces of various lengths. (2) Slip exceeding 100 cm occurred on previously unrecognized fault traces in the alluvial lowland of the Kiyama plain and on the western rim of the Aso volcano caldera. (3) Large slip with maximum dextral slip of 220 cm was measured throughout the central section of the rupture zone along the Futagawa segment, and the slip gradually decreased bilaterally on the adjoining northeastern and southwestern sections. (4) The surface rupture mostly occurred along fault traces mapped in previous active fault investigations. (5) Most of the surface ruptures were produced by the mainshock, and significant postseismic slip occurred after the mainshock.

AKATSUKI returns to Venus

Abstract: AKATSUKI is the Japanese Venus Climate Orbiter that was designed to investigate the climate system of Venus. The orbiter was launched on May 21, 2010, and it reached Venus on December 7, 2010. Thrust was applied by the orbital maneuver engine in an attempt to put AKATSUKI into a westward equatorial orbit around Venus with a 30-h orbital period. However, this operation failed because of a malfunction in the propulsion system. After this failure, the spacecraft orbited the Sun for 5 years. On December 7, 2015, AKATSUKI once again approached Venus and the Venus orbit insertion was successful, whereby a westward equatorial orbit with apoapsis of ~440,000 km and orbital period of 14 days was initiated. Now that AKATSUKI’s long journey to Venus has ended, it will provide scientific data on the Venusian climate system for two or more years. For the purpose of both decreasing the apoapsis altitude and avoiding a long eclipse during the orbit, a trim maneuver was performed at the first periapsis. The apoapsis altitude is now ~360,000 km with a periapsis altitude of 1000–8000 km, and the period is 10 days and 12 h. In this paper, we describe the details of the Venus orbit insertion-revenge 1 (VOI-R1) and the new orbit, the expected scientific information to be obtained at this orbit, and the Venus images captured by the onboard 1-µm infrared camera, ultraviolet imager, and long-wave infrared camera 2 h after the successful initiation of the VOI-R1.

Building the second version of the World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map (WDMAM)

Abstract: The World Digital Anomaly Map (WDMAM) is a worldwide compilation of near-surface magnetic data. We present here a candidate for the second version of the WDMAM and its characteristics. This candidate has been evaluated by a group of independent reviewers and has been adopted as the official second version of the WDMAM during the 26th general assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geomagnetism (IUGG). The way this compilation has been built is described with some details. A global magnetic field model of the lithosphere contribution, parameterised by spherical harmonics, has been derived up to degree and order 800. The model information content has been evaluated by computing local spectra. Further, the compatibility of the anomaly field displayed by the WDMAM with a pure induced magnetisation is tested by comparison with the main field strength. These studies allowed an analysis of the compilation in terms of strength and wavelength content. They confirm the extremely smooth and weak contribution of the magnetic field generated in the lithosphere over Western Europe. This apparent weakness possibly extends to the Northern African continent. However, a global analysis remains difficult to achieve given the sparseness of good quality data over very large area of oceans and continents. The WDMAM and related information can be downloaded at http://www.wdmam.org/.

Small-displacement linear surface ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence detected by ALOS-2 SAR interferometry

Abstract: We constructed and analyzed the ground surface displacement associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence using satellite radar interferometry images of the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2. The radar interferogram generally shows elastic deformation caused by the main earthquakes, but many other linear discontinuities showing displacement are also found. Approximately 230 lineaments are identified, some of which coincide with the positions of known active faults, such as the main earthquake faults belonging to the Futagawa and Hinagu fault zones and other minor faults; however, there are much fewer known active faults than lineaments. In each area, the lineaments have a similar direction and displacement to each other; therefore, they can be divided into several groups based on location and major features. Since the direction of the lineaments coincides with that of known active faults or their conjugate faults, the cause of the lineaments must be related to the tectonic stress field of this region. The lineaments are classified into the following two categories: (1) main earthquake faults and their branched subfaults and (2) secondary faults that are not directly related to the main earthquake but whose slip was probably triggered by the main earthquake or aftershocks.

Rupture process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in relation to the thermal structure around Aso volcano

Abstract: We constructed the rupture process model for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake from broadband teleseismic body waveforms (P-waves) by using a novel waveform inversion method that takes into account the uncertainty of Green’s function. The estimated source parameters are: seismic moment = 5.1 × 1019 Nm (Mw = 7.1), fault length = 40 km, and fault width = 15 km. The mainshock rupture mainly propagated northeastward from the epicenter, for about 30 km, along an active strike-slip fault. The rupture propagation of the mainshock decelerated and terminated near the southwest side of the Aso volcano; the aftershock activity was low around the northeastern edge of the major slip area. Our results suggest that the rupture process of the mainshock and the distribution of aftershocks were influenced by the high-temperature area around the magma chamber of Mt. Aso.

Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?

Abstract: In 1255, 1344, and 1408 AD, then again in 1833, 1934, and 2015, large earthquakes, devastated Kathmandu. The 1255 and 1934 surface ruptures have been identified east of the city, along comparable segments of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Whether the other two pairs of events were similar is unclear. Taking into account charcoal’s age inheritance, we revisit the timing of terrace offsets at key sites to compare them with the seismic record since 1200 AD. The location, extent, and moment of the 1833 and 2015 events imply that they released only a small part of the regional slip deficit on a deep thrust segment that stopped north of the Siwaliks. By contrast, the 1344 or 1408 AD earthquake may have ruptured the MFT up to the surface in central Nepal between Kathmandu and Pokhara, east of the surface trace of the great 1505 AD earthquake which affected western Nepal. If so, the whole megathrust system in Nepal broke in a sequence of earthquakes that lasted less than three centuries, with ruptures that propagated up to the surface from east to west. Today’s situation in the Himalayan seismic sequence might be close to that of the fourteenth century.

Prompt penetration electric fields and the extreme topside ionospheric response to the June 22–23, 2015 geomagnetic storm as seen by the Swarm constellation

Abstract: Using data from the three Swarm satellites, we study the ionospheric response to the intense geomagnetic storm of June 22–23, 2015. With the minimum SYM-H excursion of −207 nT, this storm is so far the second strongest geomagnetic storm in the current 24th solar cycle. A specific configuration of the Swarm satellites allowed investigation of the evolution of the storm-time ionospheric alterations on the day- and the nightside quasi-simultaneously. With the development of the main phase of the storm, a significant dayside increase of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and electron density Ne was first observed at low latitudes on the dayside. From ~22 UT of 22 June to ~1 UT of 23 June, the dayside experienced a strong negative ionospheric storm, while on the nightside an extreme enhancement of the topside VTEC occurred at mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. Our analysis of the equatorial electrojet variations obtained from the magnetic Swarm data indicates that the storm-time penetration electric fields were, most likely, the main driver of the observed ionospheric effects at the initial phase of the storm and at the beginning of the main phase. The dayside ionosphere first responded to the occurrence of the strong eastward equatorial electric fields. Further, penetration of westward electric fields led to gradual but strong decrease of the plasma density on the dayside in the topside ionosphere. At this stage, the disturbance dynamo could have contributed as well. On the nightside, the observed extreme enhancement of the Ne and VTEC in the northern hemisphere (i.e., the summer hemisphere) in the topside ionosphere was most likely due to the combination of the prompt penetration electric fields, disturbance dynamo and the storm-time thermospheric circulation. From ~2.8 UT, the ionospheric measurements from the three Swarm satellites detected the beginning of the second positive storm on the dayside, which was not clearly associated with electrojet variations. We find that this second storm might be provoked by other drivers, such as an increase in the thermospheric composition.

The first super geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24: “The St. Patrick’s day event (17 March 2015)”

Abstract: The first super geomagnetic storm (Dst < −200 nT) of solar cycle 24 occurred on “St. Patrick’s day” (17 March 2015). Notably, it was a two-step storm. The source of the storm can be traced back to the solar event on 15 March 2015. At ~2:10 UT on that day, SOHO/LASCO C3 recorded a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which was associated with a C9.1/1F flare (S22W25) and a series of type II/IV radio bursts. The initial propagation speed of this CME is estimated to be ~668 km/s. An interplanetary (IP) shock, likely driven by a magnetic cloud (MC), arrived at the Wind spacecraft at 03:59 UT on 17 March and caused a sudden storm commencement. The storm intensified during the Earth’s crossing of the ICME/shock sheath and then recovered slightly after the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turned northward. The IMF started turning southward again due to a large MC field itself, which caused the second storm intensification, reaching a minimum value (Dst = −223 nT). It is found that the first step is caused by a southward IMF component in the sheath (between the upstream shock and the front of the MC), whereas the second step is associated with the passage of the MC. The CME that erupted on 15 March is the sole solar source of the MC. We also discuss the CME/storm event with detailed data from observations (Wind and SOHO) and our algorithm for predicting the intensity of a geomagnetic storm (Dstmin) from known IP parameter values. We found that choosing the correct Dstmin estimating formula for predicting the intensity of MC-associated geomagnetic storms is crucial for space weather predictions.

Source rupture processes of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquakes estimated from strong-motion waveforms

Abstract: The detailed source rupture process of the M 7.3 event (April 16, 2016, 01:25, JST) of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquakes was derived from strong-motion waveforms using multiple-time-window linear waveform inversion. Based on the observations of surface ruptures, the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and the geodetic data, a realistic curved fault model was developed for source-process analysis of this event. The seismic moment and maximum slip were estimated as 5.5 × 1019 Nm (M w 7.1) and 3.8 m, respectively. The source model of the M 7.3 event had two significant ruptures. One rupture propagated toward the northeastern shallow region at 4 s after rupture initiation and continued with large slips to approximately 16 s. This rupture caused a large slip region 10–30 km northeast of the hypocenter that reached the caldera of Mt. Aso. Another rupture propagated toward the surface from the hypocenter at 2–6 s and then propagated toward the northeast along the near surface at 6–10 s. A comparison with the result of using a single fault plane model demonstrated that the use of the curved fault model led to improved waveform fit at the stations south of the fault. The source process of the M 6.5 event (April 14, 2016, 21:26, JST) was also estimated. In the source model obtained for the M 6.5 event, the seismic moment was 1.7 × 1018 Nm (M w 6.1), and the rupture with large slips propagated from the hypocenter to the surface along the north-northeast direction at 1–6 s. The results in this study are consistent with observations of the surface ruptures.

Landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake in the Langtang valley, volumes and initiation processes

Abstract: The Gorkha earthquake (Nepal, 2015, M w 7.9) triggered many landslides. The most catastrophic mass movement was a debris avalanche that buried several villages in the Langtang valley. In this study, questions are raised about its volume and initiation. I investigate the possibility of high-resolution digital surface models computed from tri-stereo SPOT6/7 images to resolve this issue. This high-resolution dataset enables me to derive an inventory of 160 landslides triggered by this earthquake. I analyze the source of errors and estimate the uncertainties in the landslide volumes. The vegetation prevents to correctly estimate the volumes of landslides that occured in vegetated areas. However, I evaluate the volume and thickness of 73 landslides developing in vegetated-free areas, showing a power law between their surface areas and volumes with exponent of 1.20. Accumulations and depletion volumes are also well constrained for larger landslides, and I find that the main debris avalanches accumulated 6.95 × 106 m3 of deposits in the valley with thicknesses reaching 60 m, and 9.66 × 106 m3 in the glaciated part above 5000 m asl. The large amount of sediments is explained by an initiation of the debris avalanche due to serac falls and snow avalanches from five separate places between 6800 and 7200 m asl over 3 km length.

Scale analysis of equatorial plasma irregularities derived from Swarm constellation

Abstract: In this study, we investigated the scale sizes of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs) using measurements from the Swarm satellites during its early mission and final constellation phases. We found that with longitudinal separation between Swarm satellites larger than 0.4°, no significant correlation was found any more. This result suggests that EPI structures include plasma density scale sizes less than 44 km in the zonal direction. During the Swarm earlier mission phase, clearly better EPI correlations are obtained in the northern hemisphere, implying more fragmented irregularities in the southern hemisphere where the ambient magnetic field is low. The previously reported inverted-C shell structure of EPIs is generally confirmed by the Swarm observations in the northern hemisphere, but with various tilt angles. From the Swarm spacecrafts with zonal separations of about 150 km, we conclude that larger zonal scale sizes of irregularities exist during the early evening hours (around 1900 LT).

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

Abstract: Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapi region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapi region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapi. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Volcanic plume measurements using a UAV for the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption

Abstract: A phreatic eruption of Mt. Ontake, Japan, started abruptly on September 27, 2014, and caused the worst volcanic calamity in recent 70 years in Japan. We conducted volcanic plume surveys using an electric multirotor unmanned aerial vehicle to elucidate the conditions of Mt. Ontake’s plume, which is flowing over 3000 m altitude. A plume gas composition, sulfur dioxide flux and thermal image measurements and a particle sampling were carried out using the unmanned aerial vehicle for three field campaigns on November 20 and 21, 2014, and June 2, 2015. Together with the results of manned helicopter and aircraft observations, we revealed that the plume of Mt. Ontake was not directly emitted from the magma but was influenced by hydrothermal system, and observed SO2/H2S molar ratios were decreasing after the eruption. High SO2 flux of >2000 t/d observed at least until 20 h after the onset of the eruption implies significant input of magmatic gas and the flux quickly decreased to about 130 t/d in 2 months. In contrast, H2S fluxes retrieved using SO2/H2S ratio and SO2 flux showed significantly high level of 700–800 t/d, which continued at least between 2 weeks and 2 months after the eruption. This is a peculiar feature of the 2014 Mt. Ontake eruption. Considering the trends of the flux changes of SO2 and H2S, we presume that majority of SO2 and H2S are supplied, respectively, from high-temperature magmatic fluid of a deep origin and from hydrothermal system. From the point of view of SO2/H2S ratios and fumarolic temperatures, the plume degassing trend after the 2014 eruption is following the similar course as that after the 1979 eruptions, and we speculate the 2014 eruptive activity will cease slowly similar to the 1979 eruption.

GPS and in situ Swarm observations of the equatorial plasma density irregularities in the topside ionosphere

Abstract: Here we study the global distribution of the plasma density irregularities in the topside ionosphere by using the concurrent GPS and Langmuir probe measurements onboard the Swarm satellites. We analyze 18 months (from August 2014 till January 2016) of data from Swarm A and B satellites that flew at 460 and 510 km altitude, respectively. To identify the occurrence of the ionospheric irregularities, we have analyzed behavior of two indices ROTI and RODI based on the change rate of total electron content and electron density, respectively. The obtained results demonstrate a high degree of similarities in the occurrence pattern of the seasonal and longitudinal distribution of the topside ionospheric irregularities derived from both types of the satellite observations. Among the seasons with good data coverage, the maximal occurrence rates for the post-sunset equatorial irregularities reached 35–50 % for the September 2014 and March 2015 equinoxes and only 10–15 % for the June 2015 solstice. For the equinox seasons the intense plasma density irregularities were more frequently observed in the Atlantic sector, for the December solstice in the South American–Atlantic sector. The highest occurrence rates for the post-midnight irregularities were observed in African longitudinal sector during the September 2014 equinox and June 2015 solstice. The observed differences in SWA and SWB results could be explained by the longitude/LT separation between satellites, as SWB crossed the same post-sunset sector increasingly later than the SWA did.

Swarm accelerometer data processing from raw accelerations to thermospheric neutral densities

Abstract: The Swarm satellites were launched on November 22, 2013, and carry accelerometers and GPS receivers as part of their scientific payload. The GPS receivers do not only provide the position and time for the magnetic field measurements, but are also used for determining non-gravitational forces like drag and radiation pressure acting on the spacecraft. The accelerometers measure these forces directly, at much finer resolution than the GPS receivers, from which thermospheric neutral densities can be derived. Unfortunately, the acceleration measurements suffer from a variety of disturbances, the most prominent being slow temperature-induced bias variations and sudden bias changes. In this paper, we describe the new, improved four-stage processing that is applied for transforming the disturbed acceleration measurements into scientifically valuable thermospheric neutral densities. In the first stage, the sudden bias changes in the acceleration measurements are manually removed using a dedicated software tool. The second stage is the calibration of the accelerometer measurements against the non-gravitational accelerations derived from the GPS receiver, which includes the correction for the slow temperature-induced bias variations. The identification of validity periods for calibration and correction parameters is part of the second stage. In the third stage, the calibrated and corrected accelerations are merged with the non-gravitational accelerations derived from the observations of the GPS receiver by a weighted average in the spectral domain, where the weights depend on the frequency. The fourth stage consists of transforming the corrected and calibrated accelerations into thermospheric neutral densities. We present the first results of the processing of Swarm C acceleration measurements from June 2014 to May 2015. We started with Swarm C because its acceleration measurements contain much less disturbances than those of Swarm A and have a higher signal-to-noise ratio than those of Swarm B. The latter is caused by the higher altitude of Swarm B as well as larger noise in the acceleration measurements of Swarm B. We show the results of each processing stage, highlight the difficulties encountered, and comment on the quality of the thermospheric neutral density data set.

Slip-partitioned surface ruptures for the Mw 7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

Abstract: An ENE-trending ~30-km-long surface rupture emerged during the Mw = 7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake along the previously mapped Futagawa and northern Hinagu faults. This included a previously unknown 5-km-long fault within the Aso Caldera, central Kyushu. The rupture zone is mostly composed of right-lateral slip sections, with a maximum of 2-m coseismic slip. One of the noteworthy features we observed in the field are ~10-km-long segmented normal fault scarps, dipping to the northwest, along the previously mapped Idenokuchi fault, 1.2–2.0 km south of and subparallel to the Futagawa fault. The maximum amount of coseismic throw on the Idenokuchi fault is ~2 m, which is nearly equivalent to the maximum slip on the strike-slip rupture. The locations and slip motions of the 2016 rupture are also manifested as interferogram fringe offsets in InSAR images. Together with geodetic and seismic inversions of subsurface fault slip, we present a schematic structural model where oblique motion occurred on a northwest-dipping subsurface fault and the slip is partitioned at the surface into strike-slip and normal fault scarps. Our simple dislocation model demonstrates that this bifurcation into pure strike-slip and normal faults likely occurs for optimally oriented failure near the surface. The Kumamoto case, with detailed geological observations and geophysical models, would be the second significant slip-partitioned earthquake around the globe. It provides an important insight into scale- and depth-dependent stress heterogeneity and an implication to a proper estimate of seismic hazard in complex and broad multiple fault strands.

The 2016 Kumamoto–Oita earthquake sequence: aftershock seismicity gap and dynamic triggering in volcanic areas

Abstract: The 2016 Kumamoto–Oita earthquake sequence involving three large events (M w ≥ 6) in the central Kyushu Island, southwest Japan, activated seismicities in two volcanic areas with unusual and puzzling spatial gaps after the largest earthquake (M w 7.0) of April 16, 2016. We attempt to reveal the seismic process during the sequence by following seismological data analyses. Our hypocenter relocation result implies that the large events ruptured different faults of a complex fault system. A slip inversion analysis of the largest event indicates a large slip in the seismicity gap (Aso gap) in the caldera of Mt. Aso, which probably released accumulated stress and resulted in little aftershock production. We identified that the largest event dynamically triggered a mid-M6 event at Yufuin (80 km northeast of the epicenter), which is consistent with existence of the 20-km long zone where seismicity was activated and surface offset was observed. These findings will help us study the contribution of the identified complexity in fault geometries and the geotherm in the volcanic areas to the revealed seismic process and consequently improve our understanding of the seismo-volcano tectonics.

Effective expansion of satellite laser ranging network to improve global geodetic parameters

Abstract: The aim of this study is to find an effective way to expand the ground tracking network of satellite laser ranging on the assumption that a new station is added to the existing network. Realistic numbers of observations for a new station are numerically simulated, based on the actual data acquisition statistics of the existing stations. The estimated errors are compared between the cases with and without a new station after the covariance matrices are created from a simulation run that contains six-satellite-combined orbit determination. While a station placed in the southern hemisphere is found to be useful in general, it is revealed that the most effective place differs according to the geodetic parameter. The X and Y components of the geocenter and the sectoral terms of the Earth’s gravity field are largely improved by a station in the polar regions. A middle latitude station best contributes to the tesseral gravity terms, and, to a lesser extent, a low latitude station best performs for the Z component of the geocenter and the zonal gravity terms.

Impact of Swarm GPS receiver updates on POD performance

Abstract: The Swarm satellites are equipped with state-of-the-art Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, which are used for the precise geolocation of the magnetic and electric field instruments, as well as for the determination of the Earth’s gravity field, the total electron content and low-frequency thermospheric neutral densities. The onboard GPS receivers deliver high-quality data with an almost continuous data rate. However, the receivers show a slightly degraded performance when flying over the geomagnetic poles and the geomagnetic equator, due to ionospheric scintillation. Furthermore, with only eight channels available for dual-frequency tracking, the amount of collected GPS tracking data is relatively low compared with various other missions. Therefore, several modifications have been implemented to the Swarm GPS receivers. To optimise the amount of collected GPS data, the GPS antenna elevation mask has slowly been reduced from 10° to 2°. To improve the robustness against ionospheric scintillation, the bandwidths of the GPS receiver tracking loops have been widened. Because these modifications were first implemented on Swarm-C, their impact can be assessed by a comparison with the close flying Swarm-A satellite. This shows that both modifications have a positive impact on the GPS receiver performance. The reduced elevation mask increases the amount of GPS tracking data by more than 3 %, while the updated tracking loops lead to around 1.3 % more observations and a significant reduction in tracking losses due to severe equatorial scintillation. The additional observations at low elevation angles increase the average noise of the carrier phase observations, but nonetheless slightly improve the resulting reduced-dynamic and kinematic orbit accuracy as shown by independent satellite laser ranging (SLR) validation. The more robust tracking loops significantly reduce the large carrier phase observation errors at the geomagnetic poles and along the geomagnetic equator and do not degrade the observations at midlatitudes. SLR validation indicates that the updated tracking loops also improve the reduced-dynamic and kinematic orbit accuracy. It is expected that the Swarm gravity field recovery will benefit from the improved kinematic orbit quality and potentially also from the expected improvement of the kinematic baseline determination and the anticipated reduction in the systematic gravity field errors along the geomagnetic equator. Finally, other satellites that carry GPS receivers that encounter similar disturbances might also benefit from this analysis.

Reconstruction of a phreatic eruption on 27 September 2014 at Ontake volcano, central Japan, based on proximal pyroclastic density current and fallout deposits

Abstract: The phreatic eruption at Ontake volcano on 27 September 2014, which caused the worst volcanic disaster in the past half-century in Japan, was reconstructed based on observations of the proximal pyroclastic density current (PDC) and fallout deposits. Witness observations were also used to clarify the eruption process. The deposits are divided into three major depositional units (Units A, B, and C) which are characterized by massive, extremely poorly sorted, and multimodal grain-size distribution with 30–50 wt% of fine ash (silt–clay component). The depositional condition was initially dry but eventually changed to wet. Unit A originated from gravity-driven turbulent PDCs in the relatively dry, vent-opening phase. Unit B was then produced mainly by fallout from a vigorous moist plume during vent development. Unit C was derived from wet ash fall in the declining stage. Ballistic ejecta continuously occurred during vent opening and development. As observed in the finest population of the grain-size distribution, aggregate particles were formed throughout the eruption, and the effect of water in the plume on the aggregation increased with time and distance. Based on the deposit thickness, duration, and grain-size data, and by applying a scaling analysis using a depth-averaged model of turbulent gravity currents, the particle concentration and initial flow speed of the PDC at the summit area were estimated as 2 × 10−4–2 × 10−3 and 24–28 m/s, respectively. The tephra thinning trend in the proximal area shows a steeper slope than in similar-sized magmatic eruptions, indicating a large tephra volume deposited over a short distance owing to the wet dispersal conditions. The Ontake eruption provided an opportunity to examine the deposits from a phreatic eruption with a complex eruption sequence that reflects the effect of external water on the eruption dynamics.

Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews

Abstract: A phreatic eruption at Mount Ontake (3067 m) on September 27, 2014, led to 64 casualties, including missing people In this paper, we clarify the eruption sequence of the 2014 eruption from recorded images (photographs and videos obtained by climbers) and interviews with mountain guides and workers in mountain huts The onset of eruption was sudden, without any clear precursory surface phenomena (such as ground rumbling or strong smell of sulfide) Our data indicate that the eruption sequence can be divided into three phases Phase 1: The eruption started with dry pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) caused by ash column collapse The PDCs flowed down 25 km SW and 2 km NW from the craters In addition, PDCs moved horizontally by approximately 15 km toward N and E beyond summit ridges The temperature of PDCs at the summit area partially exceeded 100 °C, and an analysis of interview results suggested that the temperature of PDCs was mostly in the range of 30–100 °C At the summit area, there were violent falling ballistic rocks Phase 2: When the outflow of PDCs stopped, the altitude of the eruption column increased; tephra with muddy rain started to fall; and ambient air temperature decreased Falling ballistic rocks were almost absent during this phase Phase 3: Finally, muddy hot water flowed out from the craters These models reconstructed from observations are consistent with the phreatic eruption models and typical eruption sequences recorded at similar volcanoes

Crustal deformation associated with the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and its effect on the magma system of Aso volcano

Abstract: An MJMA6.5 earthquake (foreshock) and MJMA7.3 earthquake (mainshock) struck Kumamoto Prefecture on April 14, 2016, and April 16, 2016. To evaluate the effect of crustal deformation due to the earthquake on the Aso magma system, we detected crustal deformation using InSAR and GNSS. From InSAR analysis, we detected large crustal deformations along the Hinagu Fault, the Futagawa Fault, and the northeast extension of the latter fault. It extended to more than 50 km, and the maximum slant-range change exceeded 1 m. Although the obtained crustal deformation was approximately explained by the right-lateral strike-slip on the fault, its details could not be explained by such simple faulting. Additionally, we found complex surface deformation west of the Aso caldera rim, suggesting that shallow fault slips occurred in many known and unknown faults associated with the earthquake. Most of the crustal deformation could be reasonably explained by four rectangle faults located along the Futagawa Fault, in the northeast extension of the Futagawa Fault, alongside the Hinagu Fault, and in the eastern part of the Futagawa Fault. The first three of faults have high dip angles and right-lateral slip. The other was a fault with a low dip angle that branched from the shallow depth of the fault along the Futagawa Fault. The normal-dip right-lateral slip was estimated for this segment. Based on the estimated fault model, we calculated the displacement and stress field around the Aso volcano by the finite-element method (FEM) to evaluate the effects on the Aso magma system. In this calculation, we assumed a spherical soft medium located at a 6-km depth beneath the area south of the Kusasenri region as the magma system and considered only static effects. The result shows complex distributions of displacements and stresses, but we can notice the following significant points. (1) The spherical magma system deformed to an ellipsoid, and the total volume was slightly increased, less than 1%. (2) The differential stress around the upper portion of the magma system was as large as 3.5 MPa. This is strong enough to open pre-existing cracks and can cause the migration of magma.

Comparison between IRI and preliminary Swarm Langmuir probe measurements during the St. Patrick storm period

Abstract: Preliminary Swarm Langmuir probe measurements recorded during March 2015, a period of time including the St. Patrick storm, are considered. Specifically, six time periods are identified: two quiet periods before the onset of the storm, two periods including the main phase of the storm, and two periods during the recovery phase of the storm. Swarm electron density values are then compared with the corresponding output given by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, according to its three different options for modelling the topside ionosphere. Since the Swarm electron density measurements are still undergoing a thorough validation, a comparison with IRI in terms of absolute values would have not been appropriate. Hence, the similarity of trends embedded in the Swarm and IRI time series is investigated in terms of Pearson correlation coefficient. The analysis shows that the electron density representations made by Swarm and IRI are different for both quiet and disturbed periods, independently of the chosen topside model option. Main differences between trends modelled by IRI and those observed by Swarm emerge, especially at equatorial latitudes, and at northern high latitudes, during the main and recovery phases of the storm. Moreover, very low values of electron density, even lower than 2 × 104 cm−3, were simultaneously recorded in the evening sector by Swarm satellites at equatorial latitudes during quiet periods, and at magnetic latitudes of about ±60° during disturbed periods. The obtained results are an example of the capability of Swarm data to generate an additional valuable dataset to properly model the topside ionosphere.

Combined logarithmic and exponential function model for fitting postseismic GNSS time series after 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

Abstract: The time series of a postseismic deformation is commonly fitted by a logarithmic or exponential decay function. However, the high-quality postseismic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake indicates that a single decay function cannot be used to represent the postseismic behaviour. We therefore combined the logarithmic (log) and exponential (exp) decay functions and developed methods for obtaining global solutions using nonlinear least squares calculations for such complex functions. Our models significantly improved the fitting performance of the postseismic time series and the prediction performance of the evolution of postseismic deformation. The solutions obtained by the proposed models and methods enabled distinction between the contributions of the log and exp functions, and explanation of characteristic phenomena such as the subsidence that occurs immediately after an earthquake is reversed to an uplift. The analysis of the solutions may suggest that there has been a continuous increase in the contribution of viscoelastic relaxation to postseismic deformation in eastern Japan, whereas the contribution of afterslip has rapidly decreased. The short-term prediction performance and the universal applicability of the proposed models to the Tohoku-Oki earthquake have contributed to the detection of a slow-slip event in the Tokai region. Rather than the existence of a unique single relaxation time for each surface site, our results suggest a unique single relaxation time for each postseismic deformation mechanism at a given subsurface location. Although the predictions were highly dependent on the assigned steady velocities and the long-term relaxation time constants, they indicate that the coseismic subsidence of the Yamoto station in Miyagi prefecture will recover around the year 2020. The estimated relaxation time constants of the present models appeared to be uniform throughout eastern Japan.

Electron hybrid code simulation of whistler-mode chorus generation with real parameters in the Earth's inner magnetosphere

Abstract: We carry out a self-consistent simulation of the generation process of whistler-mode chorus by a spatially one-dimensional electron hybrid code, by assuming the magnetic field inhomogeneity corresponding to L = 4 of the dipole field. Chorus emissions with rising tones are reproduced in the simulation result, while the frequency range, sweep rate, and the amplitude profiles in the spectra of the reproduced elements are consistently explained by the nonlinear wave growth theory. We compare the simulation results with the observation by the Cluster spacecraft (Santolik et al. in J Geophys Res 108:1278, 2003, doi: 10.1029/2002JA009791 ; Santolik in Nonlinear Process Geophys 15:621–630, 2008) and reveal similarities of the spectral fine structure of reproduced chorus elements with the observation. On the other hand, there is no gap at half the gyrofrequency in the spectra of the reproduced chorus elements, which is evident in the observation. This difference implies that the mechanism of a gap at half the gyrofrequency is governed by the process that is not described by the spatially one-dimensional simulation treating purely parallel propagating electromagnetic waves.

Co-seismic offsets due to two earthquakes (M w 6.1) along the Sumatran fault system derived from GNSS measurements

Abstract: Since the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (M w 9.2), the northwestern part of the Sumatran island has been a high seismicity region. To evaluate the seismic hazard along the Great Sumatran fault (GSF), we installed the Aceh GNSS network for the Sumatran fault system (AGNeSS) in March 2005. The AGNeSS observed co-seismic offsets due to the April 11, 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake (M w 8.6), which is the largest intraplate earthquake recorded in history. The largest offset at the AGNeSS site was approximately 14.9 cm. Two M w 6.1 earthquakes occurred within AGNeSS in 2013, one on January 21 and the other on July 2. We estimated the fault parameters of the two events using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The estimated fault parameter of the first event was a right-lateral strike-slip where the strike was oriented in approximately the same direction as the surface trace of the GSF. The estimated peak value of the probability density function for the static stress drop was approximately 0.7 MPa. On the other hand, the co-seismic displacement fields of the second event from nearby GNSS sites clearly showed a left-lateral motion on a northeast–southwest trending fault plane and supported the contention that the July 2 event broke at the conjugate fault of the GSF. We also calculated the Coulomb failure function ΔCFF caused by the first event to evaluate its effect on the second event. The results showed that the July 2 event was likely brought 0.1 MPa closer to failure by the January 21 event.