Showing papers in "Journal of Glaciology in 2015"

Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century

Abstract: Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (�42000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (�5200since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.

The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results

Abstract: The second Chinese glacier inventory was compiled based on 218 Landsat TM/ETM+ scenes acquired mainly during 2006-10. The widely used band ratio segmentation method was applied as the first step in delineating glacier outlines, and then intensive manual improvements were performed. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model was used to derive altitudinal attributes of glaciers. The boundaries of some glaciers measured by real-time kinematic differential GPS or digitized from high-resolution images were used as references to validate the accuracy of the methods used to delineate glaciers, which resulted in positioning errors of +/- 10 m for manually improved clean-ice outlines and +/- 30 m for manually digitized outlines of debris-covered parts. The glacier area error of the compiled inventory, evaluated using these two positioning accuracies, was +/- 3.2%. The compiled parts of the new inventory have a total area of 43 087 km(2), in which 1723 glaciers were covered by debris, with a total debris-covered area of 1494 km(2). The area of uncompiled glaciers from the digitized first Chinese glacier inventory is similar to 8753 km(2), mainly distributed in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, where no images of acceptable quality for glacier outline delineation can be found during 2006-10.

Climatic and geometric controls on the global distribution of surge-type glaciers : implications for a unifying model of surging

Abstract: Financial support was provided by the ConocoPhillips Lundin Northern Area Program project CRIOS.

Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions

Abstract: The behavior of marine-terminating ice sheets, such as the West Antarctic ice sheet, is of interest due to the possibility of rapid grounding-line retreat and consequent catastrophic loss of ice. Critical to modeling this behavior is a choice of basal rheology, where the most popular approach is to relate the ice-sheet velocity to a power-law function of basal stress. Recent experiments, however, suggest that near-grounding line tills exhibit Coulomb friction behavior. Here we address how Coulomb conditions modify ice-sheet profiles and stability criteria. The basal rheology necessarily transitions to Coulomb friction near the grounding line, due to low effective stresses, leading to changes in ice-sheet properties within a narrow boundary layer. Ice-sheet profiles ‘taper off’ towards a flatter upper surface, compared with the power-law case, and basal stresses vanish at the grounding line, consistent with observations. In the Coulomb case, the grounding-line ice flux also depends more strongly on flotation ice thickness, which implies that ice sheets are more sensitive to climate perturbations. Furthermore, with Coulomb friction, the ice sheet grounds stably in shallower water than with a power-law rheology. This implies that smaller perturbations are required to push the grounding line into regions of negative bed slope, where it would become unstable. These results have important implications for ice-sheet stability in a warming climate.

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses

Abstract: Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a−1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a−1. European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) data (1992–2001) give a similar gain of 112 61 Gt a−1. Gains of 136 Gt a−1 in East Antarctica (EA) and 72 Gt a−1 in four drainage systems (WA2) in West Antarctic (WA) exceed losses of 97 Gt a−1 from three coastal drainage systems (WA1) and 29 Gt a−1 from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). EA dynamic thickening of 147 Gt a−1 is a continuing response to increased accumulation (>50%) since the early Holocene. Recent accumulation loss of 11 Gt a−1 in EA indicates thickening is not from contemporaneous snowfall increases. Similarly, the WA2 gain is mainly (60 Gt a−1) dynamic thickening. In WA1 and the AP, increased losses of 66 ± 16 Gt a−1 from increased dynamic thinning from accelerating glaciers are 50% offset by greater WA snowfall. The decadal increase in dynamic thinning in WA1 and the AP is approximately one-third of the long-term dynamic thickening in EA and WA2, which should buffer additional dynamic thinning for decades.

Mass-balance changes of the debris-covered glaciers in the Langtang Himal, Nepal, from 1974 to 1999

Abstract: Thick debris cover on glaciers can significantly reduce ice melt. However, several studies have suggested that debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya might have lost mass at a rate similar to debris-free glaciers. We reconstruct elevation and mass changes for the debris-covered glaciers of the upper Langtang valley, Nepalese Himalaya, using a digital elevation model (DEM) from 1974 stereo Hexagon satellite data and the 2000 SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM. Uncertainties are high in the accumulation areas, due to data gaps in the SRTM and difficulties with delineation of the glacier borders. Even with these uncertainties, we obtain thinning rates comparable to those of several other studies in the Himalaya. In particular, we obtain a total mass balance for the investigated debris-covered glaciers of the basin of –0.32±0.18 m w.e. a^(-1). However, there are major spatial differences both between glaciers and within any single glacier, exhibiting a very distinct nonlinear mass-balance profile with elevation. Through analysis of surface velocities derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, we show that thinning occurs in areas of low velocity and low slope. These areas are prone to a general, dynamic decay of surface features and to the development of supraglacial lakes and ice cliffs, which may be responsible for a considerable increase in overall glacier ablation.

Seasonal and interannual variations in ice melange and its impact on terminus stability, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

Abstract: We used satellite-derived surface temperatures and time-lapse photography to infer temporal variations in the proglacial ice melange at Jakobshavn Isbrae, a large and rapidly retreating outlet glacier in Greenland. Freezing of the melange-covered fjord surface during winter is indicated by a decrease in fjord surface temperatures and is associated with (1) a decrease in ice melange mobility and (2) a drastic reduction in iceberg production. Vigorous calving resumes in spring, typically abruptly, following the steady up-fjord retreat of the sea-ice/ice-melange margin. An analysis of pixel displacement from time-lapse imagery demonstrates that melange motion increases prior to calving and subsequently decreases following several events. We find that secular changes in ice melange extent, character and persistence can influence iceberg calving, and therefore glacier dynamics over daily-to- monthly timescales, which, if sustained, will influence the mass balance of an ice sheet.

Modelling ice-cliff backwasting on a debris-covered glacier in the Nepalese Himalaya

Abstract: Ice cliffs have been identified as a reason for higher ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers than are implied by the insulation effects of the debris. This study aims to improve our understanding of cliff backwasting, and the role of radiative fluxes in particular. An energy-balance model is forced with new data gathered in May and October 2013 on Lirung Glacier, Nepalese Himalaya. Observations show substantial variability in melt between cliffs, between locations on any cliff and between seasons. Using a high-resolution digital elevation model we calculate longwave fluxes incident to the cliff from surrounding terrain and include the effect of local shading on shortwave radiation. This is an advance over previous studies, that made simplified assumptions on cliff geometry and radiative fluxes. Measured melt rates varied between 3.25 and 8.6 cm d−1 in May and 0.18 and 1.34 cm d−1 in October. Model results reproduce the strong variability in space and time, suggesting considerable differences in radiative fluxes over one cliff. In October the model fails to reproduce stake readings, probably due to the lack of a refreezing component. Disregarding local topography can lead to overestimation of melt at the point scale by up to ∼9%.

A ground-based radar for measuring vertical strain rates and time-varying basal melt rates in ice sheets and shelves

Abstract: The ApRES (autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder) instrument is a robust, lightweight and relatively inexpensive radar that has been designed to allow long-term, unattended monitoring of ice-shelf and ice-sheet thinning. We describe the instrument and demonstrate its capabilities and limitations by presenting results from three trial campaigns conducted in different Antarctic settings. Two campaigns were ice sheet-based – Pine Island Glacier and Dome C – and one was conducted on the Ross Ice Shelf. The ice-shelf site demonstrates the ability of the instrument to collect a time series of basal melt rates; the two grounded ice applications show the potential to recover profiles of vertical strain rate and also demonstrate some of the limitations of the present system.

Glacial melt under a porous debris layer

Abstract: In this paper we undertake a quantitative analysis of the dynamic process by which ice underneath a dry porous debris layer melts. We show that the incorporation of debris-layer airflow into a theoretical model of glacial melting can capture the empirically observed features of the so-called Ostrem curve (a plot of the melt rate as a function of debris depth). Specifically, we show that the turning point in the Ostrem curve can be caused by two distinct mechanisms: the increase in the proportion of ice that is debris-covered and/or a reduction in the evaporative heat flux as the debris layer thickens. This second effect causes an increased melt rate because the reduction in (latent) energy used for evaporation increases the amount of energy available for melting. Our model provides an explicit prediction for the melt rate and the temperature distribution within the debris layer, and provides insight into the relative importance of the two effects responsible for the maximum in the Ostrem curve. We use the data of Nicholson and Benn (2006) to show that our model is consistent with existing empirical measurements.

Derivation and analysis of a complete modern-date glacier inventory for Alaska and northwest Canada

Abstract: We present a detailed, complete glacier inventory for Alaska and neighboring Canada using multi-sensor satellite data from 2000 to 2011. For each glacier, we derive outlines and 51 variables, including center-line lengths, outline types and debris cover. We find 86 723 km(2) of glacier area (27 109 glaciers >0.025 km(2)), similar to 12% of the global glacierized area outside ice sheets. Of this area 12.0% is drained by 39 marine-terminating glaciers (74 km of tidewater margin), and 19.3% by 148 lake- and river-terminating glaciers (420 km of lake-/river margin). The overall debris cover is 11%, with considerable differences among regions, ranging from 1.4% in the Kenai Mountains to 28% in the Central Alaska Range. Comparison of outlines from different sources on >2500 km(2) of glacierized area yields a total area difference of similar to 10%, emphasizing the difficulties in accurately delineating debris-covered glaciers. Assuming fully correlated (systematic) errors, uncertainties in area reach 6% for all Alaska glaciers, but further analysis is needed to explore adequate error correlation scales. Preliminary analysis of the glacier database yields a new set of well-constrained area/length scaling parameters and shows good agreement between our area altitude distributions and previously established synthetic hypsometries. The new glacier database will be valuable to further explore relations between glacier variables and glacier behavior.

New long-term mass-balance series for the Swiss Alps

Abstract: In this study we present 19 new or re-analysed series of glacier-wide seasonal mass balance for the Swiss Alps based on direct measurements. The records partly start around 1920 and continue until today. Previously unpublished and unevaluated observations of point winter and annual balance are compiled from various sources and archives. These highly valuable datasets have not yet been consistently evaluated and were thus unavailable to the scientific community. Using distributed modelling for spatial interpolation and extrapolation and homogenization of the point measurements, we infer continuous series of area-averaged mass balance. The results are validated against independent decadal ice volume changes from photogrammetric surveys. Six of the new seasonal series cover 60 years and more and add a substantial amount of information on the variations of regional glacier mass change. This will strengthen the worldwide collection of glacier monitoring data, especially for the data-sparse period before the 1980s. We compare our results to existing long-term series and present an updated assessment of mass-balance variability and glacier sensitivity throughout the European Alps.

Re-analysis of seasonal mass balance at Abramov glacier 1968-2014

Abstract: Abramov glacier, located in the Pamir Alay, Kyrgyzstan, is a reference glacier within the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers. Long-term glaciological measurements exist from 1968 to 1998 and a mass-balance monitoring programme was re-established in 2011. In this study we re-analyse existing mass-balance data and use a spatially distributed mass-balance model to provide continuous seasonal time series of glacier mass balance covering the period 1968–2014. The model is calibrated to seasonal mass-balance surveys and then applied to the period with no measurements. Validation and recalibration is carried out using snowline observations derived from satellite imagery and, after 2011, also from automatic terrestrial camera images. We combine direct measurements, remote observations and modelling. The results are compared to geodetic glacier volume change over the past decade and to a ground-penetrating radar survey in the accumulation zone resolving several layers of accumulation. Previously published geodetic mass budget estimates for Abramov glacier suggest a close-to-zero mass balance for the past decade, which contradicts our results. We find a low plausibility for equilibrium conditions over the past 15 years. Instead, we suggest that the glacier’s sensitivity to increased summer air temperature is decisive for the substantial mass loss during the past decade.

Sedimentological characterization of Antarctic moraines using UAVs and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

Abstract: In glacial environments particle-size analysis of moraines provides insights into clast origin, transport history, depositional mechanism and processes of reworking. Traditional methods for grain-size classification are labour-intensive, physically intrusive and are limited to patch-scale (1m2) observation. We develop emerging, high-resolution ground- and unmanned aerial vehicle-based ‘Structure-from-Motion’ (UAV-SfM) photogrammetry to recover grain-size information across an moraine surface in the Heritage Range, Antarctica. SfM data products were benchmarked against equivalent datasets acquired using terrestrial laser scanning, and were found to be accurate to within 1.7 and 50mm for patch- and site-scale modelling, respectively. Grain-size distributions were obtained through digital grain classification, or ‘photo-sieving’, of patch-scale SfM orthoimagery. Photo-sieved distributions were accurate to <2mm compared to control distributions derived from dry sieving. A relationship between patch-scale median grain size and the standard deviation of local surface elevations was applied to a site-scale UAV-SfM model to facilitate upscaling and the production of a spatially continuous map of the median grain size across a 0.3 km2 area of moraine. This highly automated workflow for site scale sedimentological characterization eliminates much of the subjectivity associated with traditional methods and forms a sound basis for subsequent glaciological process interpretation and analysis.

Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Abstract: Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.

A 22 month record of surface meteorology and energy balance from the ablation zone of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand

Abstract: Multi-annual records of glacier surface meteorology and energy balance are necessary to resolve glacier–climate interactions but remain sparse, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this, we present a record from the ablation zone of Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, between October 2010 and September 2012. The mean air temperature was 1.2°C at 1760 m a.s.l., with only a moderate temperature difference between the warmest and coldest months (∼8°C). Long-term annual precipitation was estimated to exceed 6000 mm a−1, with the majority of precipitation falling within a few degrees of the freezing level. The main melt season was between November and March (83% of annual ablation), but melt events occurred during all months. Annually, net radiation was positive (a source of energy) and supplied 64% of the melt energy, driven primarily by net shortwave radiation. Net longwave radiation was often positive during cloudy conditions in summer, demonstrating the radiative importance of clouds during melt. Turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes were directed towards the surface in the summer months, accounting for just over a third of the energy for melt (34%). The energy gain associated with rainfall was small except during heavy events in summer.

Modelling the long-term mass balance and firn evolution of glaciers around Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Abstract: We analyse the long-term (1961-2012) distributed surface mass balance and firn evolution of the Kongsvegen and Holtedahlfonna glacier systems in northwestern Svalbard. We couple a surface energy-balance model to a firn model, with forcing provided from regional climate model output. In situ observational data are used to calibrate model parameters and validate the output. The simulated area-averaged surface mass balance for 1961-2012 is slightly positive (0.08 m w.e. a(-1)), which only fractionally compensates for mass loss by calving. Refreezing of percolating water in spring/summer (0.13 m w.e. a(-1)) and stored water in fall/winter (0.18 m w.e. a(-1)) provides a buffer for runoff. Internal accumulation, i.e. refreezing below the previous year's summer surface in the accumulation zone, peaks up to 0.22 m w.e. a(-1), and is unaccounted for by stake observations. Superimposed ice formation in the lower accumulation zone ranges as high as 0.25 m w.e. a(-1). A comparison of the periods 1961-99 and 2000-12 reveals 21% higher annual melt rates since 2000 and a 31% increase in runoff, which can only in part be ascribed to recent warmer and drier conditions. In response to firn line retreat, both albedo lowering (snow/ice-albedo feedback) and lower refreezing rates (refreezing feedback) further amplified runoff.

Glacier dynamics near the calving front of Bowdoin Glacier, northwestern Greenland

Abstract: To better understand recent rapid recession of marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, we performed satellite and field observations near the calving front of Bowdoin Glacier, a 3 km wide outlet glacier in northwestern Greenland. Satellite data revealed a clear transition to a rapidly retreating phase in 2008 from a relatively stable glacier condition that lasted for >20 years. Ice radar measurements showed that the glacier front is grounded, but very close to the floating condition. These results, in combination with the results of ocean depth soundings, suggest bed geometry in front of the glacier is the primary control on the rate and pattern of recent rapid retreat. Presumably, glacier thinning due to atmospheric and/or ocean warming triggered the initial retreat. In situ measurements showed complex short-term ice speed variations, which were correlated with air temperature, precipitation and ocean tides. Ice speed quickly responded to temperature rise and a heavy rain event, indicating rapid drainage of surface water to the bed. Semi-diurnal speed peaks coincided with low tides, suggesting the major role of the hydrostatic pressure acting on the calving face in the force balance. These observations demonstrate that the dynamics of Bowdoin Glacier are sensitive to small perturbations occurring near the calving front.

Multivariate parameter optimization for computational snow avalanche simulation

Abstract: Snow avalanche simulation software is a commonly used tool for hazard estimation and mitigation planning. In this study a depth-averaged flow model, combining a simple entrainment and friction relation, is implemented in the software SamosAT. Computational results strongly depend on the simulation input, in particular on the employed model parameters. A long-standing problem is to quantify the influence of these parameters on the simulation results. We present a new multivariate optimization approach for avalanche simulation in three-dimensional terrain. The method takes into account the entire physically relevant range of the two friction parameters (Coulomb friction, turbulent drag) and one entrainment parameter. These three flow model parameters are scrutinized with respect to six optimization variables (runout, matched and exceeded affected area, maximum velocity, average deposition depth and mass growth). The approach is applied to a documented extreme avalanche event, recorded in St Anton, Austria. The final results provide adjusted parameter distributions optimizing the simulation–observation correspondence. At the same time, the degree of parameter–variable correspondence is determined. We show that the specification of optimal values for certain model parameters is near-impossible, if corresponding optimization variables are neglected or unavailable.

Lidar measurement of surface melt for a temperate Alpine glacier at the seasonal and hourly scales

Abstract: This study shows how a new generation of terrestrial laser scanners can be used to investigate glacier surface ablation and other elements of glacial hydrodynamics at exceptionally high spatial and temporal resolution. The study area is an Alpine valley glacier, Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. Here we use an ultra-long-range lidar RIEGL VZ-6000 scanner, having a laser specifically designed for measurement of snow- and ice-cover surfaces. We focus on two timescales: seasonal and daily. Our results show that a near-infrared scanning laser system can provide high-precision elevation change and ablation data from long ranges, and over relatively large sections of the glacier surface. We use it to quantify spatial variations in the patterns of surface melt at the seasonal scale, as controlled by both aspect and differential debris cover. At the daily scale, we quantify the effects of ogive-related differences in ice surface debris content on spatial patterns of ablation. Daily scale measurements point to possible hydraulic jacking of the glacier associated with short-term water pressure rises. This latter demonstration shows that this type of lidar may be used to address subglacial hydrologic questions, in addition to motion and ablation measurements.

Moraine-dammed lake distribution and outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya

Abstract: To better understand the risk of disasters due to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), we synthetically analyze the spatial distribution and evolution of moraine-dammed lakes and potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in the Chinese Himalaya. Our county-based assessment of GLOF disaster risk combines PDGL outburst hazard, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements and adaptation capability (risk management) using the analytic hierarchy process. We synthetically analyze the disaster risk using the weighted comprehensive method. Remote-sensing data show there are 329 moraine-dammed lakes (>0.02 km2; total area 125.43 km2) in the Chinese Himalaya, of which 116 (total area 49.49 km2) are identified as PDGLs. The zones at highest risk of GLOF disaster are mainly located in Nyalam, Tingri, Dinggye, Lhozhag, Kangmar and Zhongba, in the mid-eastern Himalaya. Lowest-risk zones are located in the eastern Himalaya. On the county scale, Lhozhag and Lhunze have the highest hazard degrees and exposure, while Zhongba and Zando have the highest degree of vulnerability and lowest adaptation capacity. Our regionalization results for GLOF disaster risk are consistent with the distribution of historical disaster sites across the Chinese Himalaya.

Former dynamic behaviour of a cold-based valley glacier on Svalbard revealed by basal ice and structural glaciology investigations

Abstract: Large numbers of small valley glaciers on Svalbard were thicker and more extensive during the Little Ice Age (LIA), demonstrated by prominent ice-cored moraines up to several kilometres beyond present-day margins. The majority of these glaciers have since experienced a long period of strongly negative mass balance during the 20th century and are now largely frozen to their beds, indicating they are likely to have undergone a thermal transition from a polythermal to a cold-based regime. We present evidence for such a switch by reconstructing the former flow dynamics and thermal regime of Tellbreen, a small cold-based valley glacier in central Spitsbergen, based on its basal sequence and glaciological structures. Within the basal sequence, the underlying matrix-supported diamict is interpreted as saturated subglacial traction till which has frozen at the bed, indicating that the thermal switch has resulted in a cessation of subglacial sediment deformation due to freezing of the former deforming layer. This is overlain by debris-poor dispersed facies ice, interpreted to have formed through strain-induced metamorphism of englacial ice. The sequential development of structures includes arcuate fracture traces, interpreted as shear planes formed in a compressive/transpressive stress regime; and fracture traces, interpreted as healed extensional crevasses. The formation of these sediment/ice facies and structures is indicative of dynamic, warm-based flow, most likely during the LIA when the glacier was significantly thicker.

Rigorous error propagation for terrestrial laser scanning with application to snow volume uncertainty

Abstract: Estimates of point-cloud positional accuracies in terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) datasets are currently limited to rudimentary combinations of GPS position error and manufacturer precision specifications. However, rigorous error propagation techniques can be applied to the three-dimensional TLS points and potentially integrated into software visualization and analysis products. Beyond the immediate value of qualitatively observing the distribution of expected TLS errors within a point cloud, rigorously estimated point errors can be further propagated to quantify expected errors in derived products such as point-to-point distance measurements, best-fit planes or volume computations. We review TLS error sources, detail their propagation through a rigid registration and illustrate the application of estimated TLS point errors to propagated snow volume uncertainties for a large and small TLS dataset. The resulting volume errors are of negligible size compared to the volume magnitudes, in no case exceeding 0.007% of the computed snow volume. For a dataset generating a large snow volume, the method of surface representation (e.g. grid or triangulated mesh) was more influential than the estimated TLS point errors on volume uncertainty. This suggests the random errors inherent in TLS measurement techniques are not a limiting factor in achievable snow volume accuracies.

Calving of a tidewater glacier driven by melting at the waterline

Abstract: We present a study of the development of a thermo-erosional notch at the waterline and its influence on calving of Hansbreen, a medium-sized grounded tidewater glacier in southern Svalbard. The study is based on the results of undercut notch melt modelling, based on measurements of sea-water properties, repeated terrestrial laser scans and analysis of time-lapse camera images. There is a strong correlation between observed calving activity and modelled melt rate of the undercut notch. Measured depths of the undercut reach 4 m and vary greatly over time. The calving activity of Hansbreen was significantly lower in 2011 than in 2012, due to the persistent presence of the ice pack in Hornsund fjord, which cooled the sea surface and suppressed the wave action. Calving on Hansbreen is controlled by a local imbalance of forces at the front, due to thermo-erosional undercutting at the sea waterline. Calving activity is therefore sensitive to changes in sea-water temperature and wave height. It may be expected that calving rates will rise with increased advection of warm oceanic water to the Arctic.

Modelling channelized surface drainage of supraglacial lakes

Abstract: Supraglacial lakes can drain to the bed of ice sheets, affecting ice dynamics, or over their surface, relocating surface water. Focusing on surface drainage, we first discuss observations of lake drainage. In particular, for the first time, lakes are observed to drain >70 km across the Nivlisen ice shelf, East Antarctica. Inspired by these observations, we develop a model of lake drainage through a channel that incises into an ice-sheet surface by frictional heat dissipated in the flow. Modelled lake drainage can be stable or unstable. During stable drainage, the rate of lake-level drawdown exceeds the rate of channel incision, so discharge from the lake decreases with time; this can prevent the lake from emptying completely. During unstable drainage, discharge grows unstably with time and always empties the lake. Model lakes are more prone to drain unstably when the initial lake area, the lake input and the channel slope are larger. These parameters will vary during atmospheric-warming-induced ablation-area expansion, hence the mechanisms revealed by our analysis can influence the dynamic response of ice sheets to warming through their impact on surface-water routing and storage.

Basal topographic controls on rapid retreat of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland.

Abstract: Discharge from marine-terminating outlet glaciers accounts for up to half the recent mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet, yet the causal factors are not fully understood. Here we assess the factors controlling the behaviour of Humboldt Glacier (HG), allowing us to evaluate the influence of basal topography on outlet glacier response to external forcing since part of HG’s terminus occupies a large overdeepening. HG’s retreat accelerated dramatically after 1999, coinciding with summer atmospheric warming of up to 0.19°C a–1 and sea-ice decline. Retreat was an order of magnitude greater in the northern section of the terminus, underlain by a major basal trough, than in the southern section, where the bedrock is comparatively shallow. Velocity change following retreat was spatially non-uniform, potentially due to a pinning point near HG’s northern lateral margin. Consistent with observations, numerical modelling demonstrates an order-of-magnitude greater sensitivity to sea-ice buttressing and crevasse depth (used as a proxy for atmospheric warming) in the northern section. The trough extends up to 72 km inland, so it is likely to facilitate sustained retreat and ice loss from HG during the 21st century.

Energy- and mass-balance comparison between Zhadang and Parlung No.4 glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: Tibetan glaciers experience spatially heterogeneous changes, which call for further investigation of the mechanisms responsible from an energy and mass perspective. In this study, 2 year parallel observations (August 2010–July 2012) at 5665 m a.s.l. on Zhadang glacier (a subcontinental glacier) and 5202 m a.s.l. on Parlung No. 4 glacier (a maritime glacier) were used to reveal the drivers of surface energy and mass balance at these sites. Glacio-meteorological data show that air temperature and specific humidity were 1.7°C and 0.5 g kg−1 lower on Zhadang glacier than on Parlung No. 4 glacier. The mass accumulation occurred primarily before the Indian summer monsoon onset on Parlung No. 4 glacier and after its onset on Zhadang glacier. Point net mass loss was 2.5 times larger on Parlung No. 4 glacier than on Zhadang glacier, mainly due to the difference in melt energy. Overall, the physical mechanisms controlling the mass and energy difference can be attributed to both the feedback role of surface albedo through different snow accumulation characteristics and longwave radiation emission of the atmosphere due to different meteorological backgrounds. Finally, a review of the few studies dealing with energy balance on the Tibetan glaciers describes the possible spatial characteristics requiring further investigation in the future on larger spatial and temporal scales.

Ice thickness measurements and volume estimates for glaciers in Norway

Abstract: Glacier volume and ice thickness distribution are important variables for water resource management in Norway and the assessment of future glacier changes. We present a detailed assessment of thickness distribution and total glacier volume for mainland Norway based on data and modelling. Glacier outlines from a Landsat-derived inventory from 1999 to 2006 covering an area of 2692 ± 81 km2 were used as input. We compiled a rich set of ice thickness observations collected over the past 30 years. Altogether, interpolated ice thickness measurements were available for 870 km2 (32%) of the current glacier area of Norway, with a total ice volume of 134 ± 23 km3. Results indicate that mean ice thickness is similar for all larger ice caps, and weakly correlates with their total area. Ice thickness data were used to calibrate a physically based distributed model for estimating the ice thickness of unmeasured glaciers. The results were also used to calibrate volume–area scaling relations. The calibrated total volume estimates for all Norwegian glaciers ranged from 257 to 300 km3.

New LA-ICP-MS cryocell and calibration technique for sub-millimeter analysis of ice cores

Abstract: Ice cores provide a robust reconstruction of past climate. However, development of timescales by annual-layer counting, essential to detailed climate reconstruction and interpretation, on ice cores collected at low-accumulation sites or in regions of compressed ice, is problematic due to closely spaced layers. Ice-core analysis by laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) provides sub-millimeter-scale sampling resolution (on the order of 100μm in this study) and the low detection limits (ng L–1) necessary to measure the chemical constituents preserved in ice cores. We present a newly developed cryocell that can hold a 1m long section of ice core, and an alternative strategy for calibration. Using ice-core samples from central Greenland, we demonstrate the repeatability of multiple ablation passes, highlight the improved sampling resolution, verify the calibration technique and identify annual layers in the chemical profile in a deep section of an ice core where annual layers have not previously been identified using chemistry. In addition, using sections of cores from the Swiss/Italian Alps we illustrate the relationship between Ca, Na and Fe and particle concentration and conductivity, and validate the LA-ICP-MS Ca profile through a direct comparison with continuous flow analysis results.

Glacier runoff and its impact in a highly glacierized catchment in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: past and future trends

Abstract: We investigate past and future trends in glacier runoff and the associated hydrological impacts on river runoff in the Hailuogou catchment, a highly glacierized catchment with extensive debris cover in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using a catchment-scale glacio-hydrological model. Past trends in various runoff components of the catchment indicate that glacier runoff has been a large component of total runoff, contributing similar to 53.4% of total runoff during the period 1952-2013. Future changes in runoff calculated using the outputs of ten global climate models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 reveal that glacier runoff plays different roles in the water supply of the catchment for the two RCPs, and the discrepancies between the two RCPs increase in the second half of this century, leading to a considerable difference in the hydrological regime of the catchment. In particular, changes are more remarkable under RCP8.5, under which all glaciers are projected to retreat dramatically and total runoff to decrease slightly by the end of this century. An experimental analysis, in which no debris cover is assumed on glacier ablation zones, indicates that excess meltwater from the debris-covered area provides an 8.1% increase in total runoff relative to the no-debris assumption case.