Journal ArticleDOI
Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping
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In this paper, a pan-European flood hazard map at 100m resolution was derived based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically-based approach, and a combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain.Abstract:
Flood hazard maps at trans-national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans-national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data.
In this work, we derive a pan-European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long-term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan-European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan-European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Global drivers of future river flood risk
Hessel Winsemius,Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts,Ludovicus P. H. van Beek,Marc F. P. Bierkens,Arno Bouwman,Brenden Jongman,Jacob Cornelis Jan Kwadijk,Willem Ligtvoet,Paul L. Lucas,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Philip J. Ward +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development, and show that climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, but it is dwarfed by the effect of socioeconomic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe
TL;DR: In this paper, an ensemble of RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century.
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A high‐resolution global flood hazard model
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge.
Journal ArticleDOI
Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping
Francesco Dottori,Peter Salamon,Alessandra Bianchi,Lorenzo Alfieri,Feyera A. Hirpa,Luc Feyen +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a novel procedure for global flood hazard mapping, based on the most recent advances in large scale flood modelling, and evaluated the performance of their methodology in several river basins across the globe by comparing simulated flood maps with official hazard maps and a mosaic of flooded areas detected from satellite images.
Journal ArticleDOI
Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales.
H. de Moel,Brenden Jongman,Heidi Kreibich,Bruno Merz,Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell,Philip J. Ward +5 more
TL;DR: A priori flood risk assessments have become an important part of flood management practices, but there are also notable differences between assessments at different spatial scales, for instance those related to the methodology, use of assessments and uncertainties.
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