Showing papers in "Water Resources Research in 2015"

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

Abstract: Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Quantifying renewable groundwater stress with GRACE

Abstract: Renewable groundwater stress is quantified in the world's largest aquifersCharacteristic stress regimes are defined to determine the severity of stressOverstressed aquifers are mainly in rangeland biomes with some croplands.

On Critiques of “Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management?”

Abstract: We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts.

The emergence of hydrogeophysics for improved understanding of subsurface processes over multiple scales.

Abstract: Geophysics provides a multidimensional suite of investigative methods that are transforming our ability to see into the very fabric of the subsurface environment, and monitor the dynamics of its fluids and the biogeochemical reactions that occur within it. Here we document how geophysical methods have emerged as valuable tools for investigating shallow subsurface processes over the past two decades and offer a vision for future developments relevant to hydrology and also ecosystem science. The field of “hydrogeophysics” arose in the late 1990s, prompted, in part, by the wealth of studies on stochastic subsurface hydrology that argued for better field-based investigative techniques. These new hydrogeophysical approaches benefited from the emergence of practical and robust data inversion techniques, in many cases with a view to quantify shallow subsurface heterogeneity and the associated dynamics of subsurface fluids. Furthermore, the need for quantitative characterization stimulated a wealth of new investigations into petrophysical relationships that link hydrologically relevant properties to measurable geophysical parameters. Development of time-lapse approaches provided a new suite of tools for hydrological investigation, enhanced further with the realization that some geophysical properties may be sensitive to biogeochemical transformations in the subsurface environment, thus opening up the new field of “biogeophysics.” Early hydrogeophysical studies often concentrated on relatively small “plot-scale” experiments. More recently, however, the translation to larger-scale characterization has been the focus of a number of studies. Geophysical technologies continue to develop, driven, in part, by the increasing need to understand and quantify key processes controlling sustainable water resources and ecosystem services.

The science and practice of river restoration

Abstract: River restoration is one of the most prominent areas of applied water-resources science. From an initial focus on enhancing fish habitat or river appearance, primarily through structural modification of channel form, restoration has expanded to incorporate a wide variety of management activities designed to enhance river process and form. Restoration is conducted on headwater streams, large lowland rivers, and entire river networks in urban, agricultural, and less intensively human-altered environments. We critically examine how contemporary practitioners approach river restoration and challenges for implementing restoration, which include clearly identified objectives, holistic understanding of rivers as ecosystems, and the role of restoration as a social process. We also examine challenges for scientific understanding in river restoration. These include: how physical complexity supports biogeochemical function, stream metabolism, and stream ecosystem productivity; characterizing response curves of different river components; understanding sediment dynamics; and increasing appreciation of the importance of incorporating climate change considerations and resiliency into restoration planning. Finally, we examine changes in river restoration within the past decade, such as increasing use of stream mitigation banking; development of new tools and technologies; different types of process-based restoration; growing recognition of the importance of biological-physical feedbacks in rivers; increasing expectations of water quality improvements from restoration; and more effective communication between practitioners and river scientists.

CO2 wettability of seal and reservoir rocks and the implications for carbon geo-sequestration

Abstract: We review the literature data published on the topic of CO2 wettability of storage and seal rocks. We first introduce the concept of wettability and explain why it is important in the context of carbon geo-sequestration (CGS) projects, and review how it is measured. This is done to raise awareness of this parameter in the CGS community, which, as we show later on in this text, may have a dramatic impact on structural and residual trapping of CO2. These two trapping mechanisms would be severely and negatively affected in case of CO2-wet storage and/or seal rock. Overall, at the current state of the art, a substantial amount of work has been completed, and we find that: Sandstone and limestone, plus pure minerals such as quartz, calcite, feldspar, and mica are strongly water wet in a CO2-water system. Oil-wet limestone, oil-wet quartz, or coal is intermediate wet or CO2 wet in a CO2-water system. The contact angle alone is insufficient for predicting capillary pressures in reservoir or seal rocks. The current contact angle data have a large uncertainty. Solid theoretical understanding on a molecular level of rock-CO2-brine interactions is currently limited. In an ideal scenario, all seal and storage rocks in CGS formations are tested for their CO2 wettability. Achieving representative subsurface conditions (especially in terms of the rock surface) in the laboratory is of key importance but also very challenging.

Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models

Abstract: Many of the scientific and societal challenges in understanding and preparing for global environmental change rest upon our ability to understand and predict the water cycle change at large river basin, continent, and global scales. However, current large-scale models, such as the land components of Earth System Models (ESMs), do not yet represent the terrestrial water cycle in a fully integrated manner or resolve the finer-scale processes that can dominate large-scale water budgets. This paper reviews the current representation of hydrologic processes in ESMs and identifies the key opportunities for improvement. This review suggests that (1) the development of ESMs has not kept pace with modeling advances in hydrology, both through neglecting key processes (e.g., groundwater) and neglecting key aspects of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity; and (2) many modeling advances in hydrology can readily be incorporated into ESMs and substantially improve predictions of the water cycle. Accelerating modeling advances in ESMs requires comprehensive hydrologic benchmarking activities, in order to systematically evaluate competing modeling alternatives, understand model weaknesses, and prioritize model development needs. This demands stronger collaboration, both through greater engagement of hydrologists in ESM development and through more detailed evaluation of ESM processes in research watersheds. Advances in themore » representation of hydrologic process in ESMs can substantially improve energy, carbon and nutrient cycle prediction capabilities through the fundamental role the water cycle plays in regulating these cycles.« less

A high‐resolution global flood hazard model

Abstract: Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and ecological restoration on streamflow changes based on a Budyko hydrological model in China's Loess Plateau

Abstract: Understanding hydrological effects of ecological restoration (ER) is fundamental to develop effective measures guiding future ER and to adapt climate change in China's Loess Plateau (LP). Streamflow (Q) is an important indicator of hydrological processes that represents the combined effects of climatic and land surface conditions. Here 14 catchments located in the LP were chosen to explore the Q response to different driving factors during the period 1961-2009 by using elasticity and decomposition methods based on the Budyko framework. Our results show that (1) annual Q exhibited a decreasing trend in all catchments (-0.30 similar to -1.71 mm yr(-2)), with an average reduction of -0.87 mm yr(-2). The runoff coefficients in flood season and nonflood season were both decreasing between two periods divided by the changing point in annual Q series; (2) the precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (E-0) elasticity of Q are 2.75 and -1.75, respectively, indicating that Q is more sensitive to changes in P than that in E-0; (3) the two methods consistently demonstrated that, on average, ER (62%) contributing to Q reduction was much larger than that of climate change (38%). In addition, parameter n that entails catchment characteristics in the Budyko framework showed positive correlation with the relative area of ER measures in all catchments (eight of them are statistically significant with p< 0.05). These findings highlight the importance of ER measures on modifying the hydrological partitioning in the region. However, ER actions over the sloping parts of the landscape weakened the impact of those in channels (i.e., check-dams) on Q, especially after the implementation of the Grain-for-Green project in 1999.

A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

Abstract: The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context.

A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept

Abstract: This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic evaluation of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. In this paper, we introduce the general approach used in SUMMA, detailing the spatial organization and model simplifications, and how different representations of multiple physical processes can be combined within a single modeling framework. We discuss how SUMMA can be used to systematically pursue the method of multiple working hypotheses in hydrology. In particular, we discuss how SUMMA can help tackle major hydrologic modeling challenges, including defining the appropriate complexity of a model, selecting among competing flux parameterizations, representing spatial variability across a hierarchy of scales, identifying potential improvements in computational efficiency and numerical accuracy as part of the numerical solver, and improving understanding of the various sources of model uncertainty.

Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes

Abstract: In flood risk assessment, there remains a lack of analytical frameworks capturing the dynamics emerging from two-way feedbacks between physical and social processes, such as adaptation and levee effect. The former, “adaptation effect”, relates to the observation that the occurrence of more frequent flooding is often associated with decreasing vulnerability. The latter, “levee effect”, relates to the observation that the non-occurrence of frequent flooding (possibly caused by flood protection structures, e.g. levees) is often associated to increasing vulnerability. As current analytical frameworks do not capture these dynamics, projections of future flood risk are not realistic. In this paper, we develop a new approach whereby the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies are explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we show an application of this approach by using a socio-hydrological model to simulate the behavior of two main prototypes of societies: green societies, which cope with flooding by resettling out of flood-prone areas; and technological societies, which deal with flooding also by building levees or dikes. This application shows that the proposed approach is able to capture and explain the aforementioned dynamics (i.e. adaptation and levee effect) and therefore contribute to a better understanding of changes in flood risk, within an iterative process of theory development and empirical research.

Time-variable transit time distributions and transport: Theory and application to storage-dependent transport of chloride in a watershed

Abstract: Transport processes and pathways through many hydrodynamic systems vary over time, often driven by variations in total water storage. This paper develops a very general approach to modeling unsteady transport through an arbitrary control volume (such as a watershed) that accounts for temporal variability in the underlying transport dynamics. Controls on the selection of discharge from stored water are encapsulated in probability distributions ΩQ(ST,t) of age-ranked storage ST (the volume of water in storage ranked from youngest to oldest). This framework is applied to a long-term record of rainfall and streamflow chloride in a small, humid watershed at Plynlimon, UK. While a time-invariant gamma distribution for ΩQ produced a good fit to data, the fit was significantly improved when the distribution was allowed to vary with catchment storage. However, the variation was inverse to that of a “well-mixed” system where storage has a pure dilution effect. Discharge at high storage was predicted to contain a larger fraction of recent event water than at low storage. The effective volume of storage involved in transport was 3411 mm at mean catchment wetness, but declined by 71 mm per 1 mm of additional catchment storage, while the fraction of event water in discharge increased by 1.4%. This “inverse storage effect” is sufficient to reproduce the observed long-memory 1∕f fractal spectral structure of stream chloride. Metrics quantifying the strength and direction of storage effects are proposed as useful signatures, and point toward a unified framework for observing and modeling coupled watershed flow and transport.

Global hydrology 2015: State, trends, and directions

Abstract: Global hydrology has come a long way since the first introduction of the primitive land surface model of Manabe (1969) and the declaration of the “Emergence of Global Hydrology” by Eagleson (1986). Hydrological submodels of varying complexity are now part of global climate models, of models calculating global terrestrial carbon sequestration, of earth system models, and even of integrated assessment models. This paper reviews the current state of global hydrological modeling, discusses past and recent developments, and extrapolates these to future challenges and directions. First, established domains of global hydrological model applications are discussed, in terms of societal and science questions posed, the type of models developed, and recent advances therein. Next, a genealogy of global hydrological models is given. After reviewing recent efforts to connect model components from different domains, new domains are identified where global hydrology is now starting to become an integral part of the analyses. Finally, inspired by these new domains of application, persistent and emerging challenges are identified as well as the directions global hydrology is likely to take in the coming decade and beyond.

River corridor science: Hydrologic exchange and ecological consequences from bedforms to basins

Abstract: Previously regarded as the passive drains of watersheds, over the past 50 years, rivers have progressively been recognized as being actively connected with off-channel environments. These connections prolong physical storage and enhance reactive processing to alter water chemistry and downstream transport of materials and energy. Here we propose river corridor science as a concept that integrates downstream transport with lateral and vertical exchange across interfaces. Thus, the river corridor, rather than the wetted river channel itself, is an increasingly common unit of study. Main channel exchange with recirculating marginal waters, hyporheic exchange, bank storage, and overbank flow onto floodplains are all included under a broad continuum of interactions known as “hydrologic exchange flows.” Hydrologists, geomorphologists, geochemists, and aquatic and terrestrial ecologists are cooperating in studies that reveal the dynamic interactions among hydrologic exchange flows and consequences for water quality improvement, modulation of river metabolism, habitat provision for vegetation, fish, and wildlife, and other valued ecosystem services. The need for better integration of science and management is keenly felt, from testing effectiveness of stream restoration and riparian buffers all the way to reevaluating the definition of the waters of the United States to clarify the regulatory authority under the Clean Water Act. A major challenge for scientists is linking the small-scale physical drivers with their larger-scale fluvial and geomorphic context and ecological consequences. Although the fine scales of field and laboratory studies are best suited to identifying the fundamental physical and biological processes, that understanding must be successfully linked to cumulative effects at watershed to regional and continental scales.

Global change and the groundwater management challenge

Abstract: With rivers in critical regions already exploited to capacity throughout the world and groundwater overdraft as well as large-scale contamination occurring in many areas, we have entered an era in which multiple simultaneous stresses will drive water management. Increasingly, groundwater resources are taking a more prominent role in providing freshwater supplies. We discuss the competing fresh groundwater needs for human consumption, food production, energy, and the environment, as well as physical hazards, and conflicts due to transboundary overexploitation. During the past 50 years, groundwater management modeling has focused on combining simulation with optimization methods to inspect important problems ranging from contaminant remediation to agricultural irrigation management. The compound challenges now faced by water planners require a new generation of aquifer management models that address the broad impacts of global change on aquifer storage and depletion trajectory management, land subsidence, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, seawater intrusion, anthropogenic and geogenic contamination, supply vulnerability, and long-term sustainability. The scope of research efforts is only beginning to address complex interactions using multiagent system models that are not readily formulated as optimization problems and that consider a suite of human behavioral responses.

What do we mean by sensitivity analysis? The need for comprehensive characterization of “global” sensitivity in Earth and Environmental systems models

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis is an essential paradigm in Earth and Environmental Systems modeling. However, the term “sensitivity” has a clear definition, based in partial derivatives, only when specified locally around a particular point (e.g., optimal solution) in the problem space. Accordingly, no unique definition exists for “global sensitivity” across the problem space, when considering one or more model responses to different factors such as model parameters or forcings. A variety of approaches have been proposed for global sensitivity analysis, based on different philosophies and theories, and each of these formally characterizes a different “intuitive” understanding of sensitivity. These approaches focus on different properties of the model response at a fundamental level and may therefore lead to different (even conflicting) conclusions about the underlying sensitivities. Here we revisit the theoretical basis for sensitivity analysis, summarize and critically evaluate existing approaches in the literature, and demonstrate their flaws and shortcomings through conceptual examples. We also demonstrate the difficulty involved in interpreting “global” interaction effects, which may undermine the value of existing interpretive approaches. With this background, we identify several important properties of response surfaces that are associated with the understanding and interpretation of sensitivities in the context of Earth and Environmental System models. Finally, we highlight the need for a new, comprehensive framework for sensitivity analysis that effectively characterizes all of the important sensitivity-related properties of model response surfaces.

Predicting colloid transport through saturated porous media: A critical review

Abstract: Understanding and predicting colloid transport and retention in water-saturated porous media is important for the protection of human and ecological health. Early applications of colloid transport research before the 1990s included the removal of pathogens in granular drinking water filters. Since then, interest has expanded significantly to include such areas as source zone protection of drinking water systems and injection of nanometals for contaminated site remediation. This review summarizes predictive tools for colloid transport from the pore to field scales. First, we review experimental breakthrough and retention of colloids under favorable and unfavorable colloid/collector interactions (i.e., no significant and significant colloid-surface repulsion, respectively). Second, we review the continuum-scale modeling strategies used to describe observed transport behavior. Third, we review the following two components of colloid filtration theory: (i) mechanistic force/torque balance models of pore-scale colloid trajectories and (ii) approximating correlation equations used to predict colloid retention. The successes and limitations of these approaches for favorable conditions are summarized, as are recent developments to predict colloid retention under the unfavorable conditions particularly relevant to environmental applications. Fourth, we summarize the influences of physical and chemical heterogeneities on colloid transport and avenues for their prediction. Fifth, we review the upscaling of mechanistic model results to rate constants for use in continuum models of colloid behavior at the column and field scales. Overall, this paper clarifies the foundation for existing knowledge of colloid transport and retention, features recent advances in the field, critically assesses where existing approaches are successful and the limits of their application, and highlights outstanding challenges and future research opportunities. These challenges and opportunities include improving mechanistic descriptions, and subsequent correlation equations, for nanoparticle (i.e., Brownian particle) transport through soil, developing mechanistic descriptions of colloid retention in so-called “unfavorable” conditions via methods such as the “discrete heterogeneity” approach, and employing imaging techniques such as X-ray tomography to develop realistic expressions for grain topology and mineral distribution that can aid the development of these mechanistic approaches.

Inroads of remote sensing into hydrologic science during the WRR era

Abstract: The first issue of WRR appeared eight years after the launch of Sputnik, but by WRR's 25th anniversary, only seven papers that used remote sensing had appeared. Over the journal's second 25 years, that changed remarkably, and remote sensing is now widely used in hydrology and other geophysical sciences. We attribute this evolution to production of data sets that scientists not well versed in remote sensing can use, and to educational initiatives like NASA's Earth System Science Fellowship program that has supported over a thousand scientists, many in hydrology. We review progress in remote sensing in hydrology from a water balance perspective. We argue that progress is primarily attributable to a creative use of existing and past satellite sensors to estimate such variables as evapotranspiration rates or water storage in lakes and reservoirs and to new and planned missions. Recent transforming technologies include the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the European Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and U.S. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions, and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Future missions include Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) to measure river discharge and lake, reservoir, and wetland storage. Measurement of some important hydrologic variables remains problematic: retrieval of snow water equivalent (SWE) from space remains elusive especially in mountain areas, even though snow cover extent is well observed, and was the topic of 4 of the first 5 remote sensing papers published in WRR. We argue that this area deserves more strategic thinking from the hydrology community.

The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

Abstract: This paper presents a short history of water resources systems analysis from its beginnings in the Harvard Water Program, through its continuing evolution toward a general field of water resources systems science. Current systems analysis practice is widespread and addresses the most challenging water issues of our times, including water scarcity and drought, climate change, providing water for food and energy production, decision making amid competing objectives, and bringing economic incentives to bear on water use. The emergence of public recognition and concern for the state of water resources provides an opportune moment for the field to reorient to meet the complex, interdependent, interdisciplinary, and global nature of today's water challenges. At present, water resources systems analysis is limited by low scientific and academic visibility relative to its influence in practice and bridled by localized findings that are difficult to generalize. The evident success of water resource systems analysis in practice (which is set out in this paper) needs in future to be strengthened by substantiating the field as the science of water resources that seeks to predict the water resources variables and outcomes that are important to governments, industries, and the public the world over. Doing so promotes the scientific credibility of the field, provides understanding of the state of water resources and furnishes the basis for predicting the impacts of our water choices.

Status of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers with emphasis on modeling approaches and practical simulations

Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the only viable technology to mitigate carbon emissions while allowing continued large-scale use of fossil fuels. The storage part of CCS involves injection of carbon dioxide, captured from large stationary sources, into deep geological formations. Deep saline aquifers have the largest identified storage potential, with estimated storage capacity sufficient to store emissions from large stationary sources for at least a century. This makes CCS a potentially important bridging technology in the transition to carbon-free energy sources. Injection of CO2 into deep saline aquifers leads to a multicomponent, multiphase flow system, in which geomechanics, geochemistry, and nonisothermal effects may be important. While the general system can be highly complex and involve many coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations, the underlying physics can sometimes lead to important simplifications. For example, the large density difference between injected CO2 and brine may lead to relatively fast buoyant segregation, making an assumption of vertical equilibrium reasonable. Such simplifying assumptions lead to a range of simplified governing equations whose solutions have provided significant practical insights into system behavior, including improved estimates of storage capacity, easy-to-compute estimates of CO2 spatial migration and pressure response, and quantitative estimates of leakage risk. When these modeling studies are coupled with observations from well-characterized injection operations, understanding of the overall system behavior is enhanced significantly. This improved understanding shows that, while economic and policy challenges remain, CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers appears to be a viable technology and can contribute substantially to climate change solutions.

Physically based modeling in catchment hydrology at 50: Survey and outlook

Abstract: Integrated, process-based numerical models in hydrology are rapidly evolving, spurred by novel theories in mathematical physics, advances in computational methods, insights from laboratory and field experiments, and the need to better understand and predict the potential impacts of population, land use, and climate change on our water resources. At the catchment scale, these simulation models are commonly based on conservation principles for surface and subsurface water flow and solute transport (e.g., the Richards, shallow water, and advection-dispersion equations), and they require robust numerical techniques for their resolution. Traditional (and still open) challenges in developing reliable and efficient models are associated with heterogeneity and variability in parameters and state variables; nonlinearities and scale effects in process dynamics; and complex or poorly known boundary conditions and initial system states. As catchment modeling enters a highly interdisciplinary era, new challenges arise from the need to maintain physical and numerical consistency in the description of multiple processes that interact over a range of scales and across different compartments of an overall system. This paper first gives an historical overview (past 50 years) of some of the key developments in physically based hydrological modeling, emphasizing how the interplay between theory, experiments, and modeling has contributed to advancing the state of the art. The second part of the paper examines some outstanding problems in integrated catchment modeling from the perspective of recent developments in mathematical and computational science.

Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water

Abstract: We present a coevolutionary view of hydrologic systems, revolving around feedbacks between environmental and social processes operating across different time scales. This brings to the fore an emphasis on emergent phenomena in changing water systems, such as the levee effect, adaptation to change, system lock-in, and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system. Guidance is provided for the framing and modeling of these phenomena to test alternative hypotheses about how they arose. A plurality of coevolutionary models, from stylized to comprehensive system-of-system models, may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesize the observed dynamics in a wide range of case studies. Future research opportunities lie in exploring emergent phenomena arising from time scale interactions through historical, comparative, and process studies of human-water feedbacks.

Footprint characteristics revised for field‐scale soil moisture monitoring with cosmic‐ray neutrons

Abstract: Cosmic-ray neutron probes are widely used to monitor environmental water content near the surface. The method averages over tens of hectares and is unrivaled in serving representative data for agriculture and hydrological models at the hectometer scale. Recent experiments, however, indicate that the sensor response to environmental heterogeneity is not fully understood. Knowledge of the support volume is a prerequisite for the proper interpretation and validation of hydrogeophysical data. In a previous study, several physical simplifications have been introduced into a neutron transport model in order to derive the characteristics of the cosmic-ray probe's footprint. We utilize a refined source and energy spectrum for cosmic-ray neutrons and simulate their response to a variety of environmental conditions. Results indicate that the method is particularly sensitive to soil moisture in the first tens of meters around the probe, whereas the radial weights are changing dynamically with ambient water. The footprint radius ranges from 130 to 240 m depending on air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The moisture-dependent penetration depth of 15 to 83 cm decreases exponentially with distance to the sensor. However, the footprint circle remains almost isotropic in complex terrain with nearby rivers, roads or hill slopes. Our findings suggest that a dynamically weighted average of point measurements is essential for accurate calibration and validation. The new insights will have important impact on signal interpretation, sensor installation, data interpolation from mobile surveys, and the choice of appropriate resolutions for data assimilation into hydrological models.

Storage selection functions : A coherent framework for quantifying how catchments store and release water and solutes

Abstract: We discuss a recent theoretical approach combining catchment-scale flow and transport processes into a unified framework. The approach is designed to characterize the hydrochemistry of hydrologic systems and to meet the challenges posed by empirical evidence. StorAge Selection functions (SAS) are defined to represent the way catchment storage supplies the outflows with water of different ages, thus regulating the chemical composition of out-fluxes. Biogeochemical processes are also reflected in the evolving residence time distribution and thus in age-selection. Here we make the case for the routine use of SAS functions and look forward to areas where further research is needed.

Hydraulic fracturing water use variability in the United States and potential environmental implications.

Abstract: Until now, up‐to‐date, comprehensive, spatial, national‐scale data on hydraulic fracturing water volumes have been lacking. Water volumes used (injected) to hydraulically fracture over 263,859 oil and gas wells drilled between 2000 and 2014 were compiled and used to create the first U.S. map of hydraulic fracturing water use. Although median annual volumes of 15,275 m3 and 19,425 m3 of water per well was used to hydraulically fracture individual horizontal oil and gas wells, respectively, in 2014, about 42% of wells were actually either vertical or directional, which required less than 2600 m3 water per well. The highest average hydraulic fracturing water usage (10,000−36,620 m3 per well) in watersheds across the United States generally correlated with shale‐gas areas (versus coalbed methane, tight oil, or tight gas) where the greatest proportion of hydraulically fractured wells were horizontally drilled, reflecting that the natural reservoir properties influence water use. This analysis also demonstrates that many oil and gas resources within a given basin are developed using a mix of horizontal, vertical, and some directional wells, explaining why large volume hydraulic fracturing water usage is not widespread. This spatial variability in hydraulic fracturing water use relates to the potential for environmental impacts such as water availability, water quality, wastewater disposal, and possible wastewater injection‐induced earthquakes.

Global analysis of approaches for deriving total water storage changes from GRACE satellites

Abstract: Increasing interest in use of GRACE satellites and a variety of new products to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) underscores the need to assess the reliability of output from different products. The objective of this study was to assess skills and uncertainties of different approaches for processing GRACE data to restore signal losses caused by spatial filtering based on analysis of 1°×1° grid scale data and in 60 river basins globally. Results indicate that scaling factors from six LSMs, including GLDAS-1 four models (Noah2.7, Mosaic, VIC, and CLM 2.0), CLM 4.0, and WGHM, are similar over most of humid, sub-humid, and high-latitude regions but can differ by up to 100% over arid and semi-arid basins and areas with intensive irrigation. Temporal variability in scaling factors is generally minor at the basin scale except in arid and semi-arid regions, but can be appreciable at the 1°×1° grid scale. Large differences in TWS anomalies from three processing approaches (scaling factor, additive, and multiplicative corrections) were found in arid and semi-arid regions, areas with intensive irrigation, and relatively small basins (e.g., ≤ 200,000km2). Furthermore, TWS anomaly products from gridded data with CLM4.0 scaling factors and the additive correction approach more closely agree with WGHM output than the multiplicative correction approach. This comprehensive evaluation of GRACE processing approaches should provide valuable guidance on applicability of different processing approaches with different climate settings and varying levels of irrigation.

On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2

Abstract: A recent interpretation of climate model projections concluded that “warmer is more arid.” In contrast, dust records and other evidence have led the geoscience community to conclude that “warmer is less arid” leading to an aridity paradox. The “warmer is more arid” interpretation is based on a projected increase in the vapour pressure deficit (∼ 7–9% K−1) that results in a projected increase in potential evaporation that greatly exceeds the projected increase in precipitation. However, the increase in potential evaporation does not result in an increase in (actual) evaporation which remains more or less constant in the model output. Projected changes in the long-term aridity can be assessed by directly interrogating the climate model output. To that end, we equate lack of precipitation with meteorological aridity and lack of runoff with hydrologic aridity. A third perspective, agro-ecological aridity, is not directly related to the water lost but rather to the carbon gain and is equated with the reduction in photosynthetic uptake of CO2. We reexamine the same climate model output and conclude that “warmer is less arid” from all perspectives and in agreement with the geological records. Future research will need to add the critical regional and seasonal perspectives to the aridity assessments described here.

Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with the representation of human impacts

Abstract: Observations indicate that groundwater levels are declining in many regions around the world. Simulating such depletion of groundwater at the global scale still remains a challenge because most global Land Surface Models (LSMs) lack the physical representation of groundwater dynamics in general and well pumping in particular. Here we present an integrated hydrologic model, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics and pumping within a global LSM that also accounts for human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operation. The model is used to simulate global water fluxes and storages with a particular focus on groundwater withdrawal and depletion in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) and Central Valley Aquifer (CVA). Simulated global groundwater withdrawal and depletion for the year 2000 are 570 and 330 km3 yr−1, respectively; the depletion agrees better with observations than our previous model result without groundwater representation, but may still contain certain uncertainties and is on the higher side of other estimates. Groundwater withdrawals from the HPA and CVA are ∼22 and ∼9 km3 yr−1, respectively, which are also consistent with the observations of ∼24 and ∼13 km3 yr−1. The model simulates a significant decline in total terrestrial water storage in both regions as caused mainly by groundwater storage depletion. Groundwater table declined by ∼14 cm yr−1 in the HPA during 2003–2010; the rate is even higher (∼71 cm yr−1) in the CVA. These results demonstrate the potential of the developed model to study the dynamic relationship between human water use, groundwater storage, and the entire hydrologic cycle.

Hydrological Partitioning in the Critical Zone: Recent Advances and Opportunities for Developing Transferable Understanding of Water Cycle Dynamics

Abstract: Hydrology is an integrative discipline linking the broad array of water-related research with physical, ecological, and social sciences. The increasing breadth of hydrological research, often where subdisciplines of hydrology partner with related sciences, reflects the central importance of water to environmental science, while highlighting the fractured nature of the discipline itself. This lack of coordination among hydrologic subdisciplines has hindered the development of hydrologic theory and integrated models capable of predicting hydrologic partitioning across time and space. The recent development of the concept of the critical zone (CZ), an open system extending from the top of the canopy to the base of groundwater, brings together multiple hydrological subdisciplines with related physical and ecological sciences. Observations obtained by CZ researchers provide a diverse range of complementary process and structural data to evaluate both conceptual and numerical models. Consequently, a cross-site focus on “critical zone hydrology” has potential to advance the discipline of hydrology and to facilitate the transition of CZ observatories into a research network with immediate societal relevance. Here we review recent work in catchment hydrology and hydrochemistry, hydrogeology, and ecohydrology that highlights a common knowledge gap in how precipitation is partitioned in the critical zone: “how is the amount, routing, and residence time of water in the subsurface related to the biogeophysical structure of the CZ?” Addressing this question will require coordination among hydrologic subdisciplines and interfacing sciences, and catalyze rapid progress in understanding current CZ structure and predicting how climate and land cover changes will affect hydrologic partitioning. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.