Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system
Craig MacLachlan,Alberto Arribas,K. A. Peterson,A. Maidens,D. Fereday,Adam A. Scaife,Margaret Gordon,Michael Vellinga,Amy J. Williams,Ruth E. Comer,Joanne Camp,Prince K. Xavier,Gurvan Madec +12 more
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The UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) as discussed by the authors was developed to forecast the major modes of variability and showed improved year-to-year predictions of the major variability.Abstract:
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.read more
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The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
TL;DR: As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.
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The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations
David N. Walters,Anthony J. Baran,Anthony J. Baran,Ian A. Boutle,M. E. Brooks,Paul Earnshaw,John M. Edwards,Kalli Furtado,Peter Hill,Adrian Lock,James Manners,Cyril J. Morcrette,Jane Mulcahy,Claudio Sanchez,Chris Smith,Rachel Stratton,Warren Tennant,Lorenzo Tomassini,Kwinten Van Weverberg,Simon Vosper,Martin Willett,J. Browse,Andrew C. Bushell,Kenneth S. Carslaw,Mohit Dalvi,Richard Essery,Nicola Gedney,Steven C. Hardiman,Ben Johnson,Colin E. Johnson,Andrew Jones,Colin Jones,Graham Mann,Sean Milton,Heather Rumbold,Alistair Sellar,Masashi Ujiie,Michael Whitall,Keith D. Williams,M. Zerroukat +39 more
TL;DR: The Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3.0) as mentioned in this paper is a configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) developed for use across climate research and weather prediction activities.
Journal ArticleDOI
SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system
Stephanie J. Johnson,Timothy N. Stockdale,Laura Ferranti,Magdalena Balmaseda,Franco Molteni,Linus Magnusson,Steffen Tietsche,Damien Decremer,Antje Weisheimer,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Sarah Keeley,Kristian Mogensen,Hao Zuo,B. M. Monge-Sanz +13 more
TL;DR: SEAS5 as discussed by the authors is the ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which became operational in November 2017 and includes upgraded versions of the atmosphere and ocean models at higher resolutions and adds a prognostic sea-ice model.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations
Keith D. Williams,Dan Copsey,Edward W. Blockley,Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo,Daley Calvert,Ruth E. Comer,Philip Davis,Tim Graham,Helene T. Hewitt,Richard Hill,Patrick Hyder,Sarah Ineson,T. C. Johns,A. B. Keen,Robert W. Lee,Alex Megann,Sean Milton,J. G. L. Rae,Malcolm J. Roberts,Adam A. Scaife,Reinhard Schiemann,D. Storkey,Livia Thorpe,I. G. Watterson,David N. Walters,Alex West,Richard Wood,Tim Woollings,Prince K. Xavier +28 more
TL;DR: The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented in this paper, which is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).
Journal ArticleDOI
Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead
Nick Dunstone,Doug Smith,Adam A. Scaife,Leon Hermanson,Rosie Eade,Niall Robinson,Martin B. Andrews,Jeff Knight +7 more
TL;DR: The North Atlantic Oscillation profoundly influences European and North American winter weather. Dynamical model predictions now exhibit skill in prediction of the winter North Atlantic oscillation more than one year in advance as discussed by the authors.
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