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Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?
Nikolina Ban,Juerg Schmidli,Christoph Schär +2 more
- pp 6046
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In this article, the authors employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany, and find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.Abstract:
Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6–7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that subdaily (e.g., hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate. Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parametrize convective precipitation (i.e., thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany. Consistent with previous results, projections using a Representative Concentration Pathways version 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation. However, unlike previous studies, we find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day precipitation scaling into the future.read more
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A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges.
Andreas F. Prein,Andreas F. Prein,Wolfgang Langhans,Giorgia Fosser,Andrew Ferrone,Nikolina Ban,Klaus Goergen,Michael Keller,Merja Tölle,Oliver Gutjahr,Frauke Feser,Erwan Brisson,Stefan Kollet,Juerg Schmidli,Nicole Van Lipzig,Ruby Leung +15 more
TL;DR: This study aims to provide a common basis for CPM climate simulations by giving a holistic review of the topic, and presents the consolidated outcome of studies that addressed the added value of CPMClimate simulations compared to LSMs.
Journal ArticleDOI
The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used observations and high-resolution modeling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture, and that the scaling rates between extreme precipitation and temperature are strongly dependent on the region, temperature, and moisture availability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
Günter Blöschl,Julia Hall,Alberto Viglione,Alberto Viglione,Rui A. P. Perdigão,Juraj Parajka,Bruno Merz,David Lun,Berit Arheimer,Giuseppe Tito Aronica,Ardian Bilibashi,Miloň Boháč,Ognjen Bonacci,Marco Borga,Ivan Čanjevac,Attilio Castellarin,Giovanni Battista Chirico,Pierluigi Claps,Natalia Frolova,Daniele Ganora,Liudmyla Gorbachova,Ali Gül,Jamie Hannaford,Shaun Harrigan,Maria Kireeva,Andrea Kiss,Thomas Kjeldsen,Silvia Kohnová,Jarkko J. Koskela,Ondrej Ledvinka,Neil Macdonald,Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova,Luis Mediero,Ralf Merz,Peter Molnar,Alberto Montanari,Conor Murphy,Marzena Osuch,Valeryia Ovcharuk,Ivan Radevski,Jose Luis Salinas,Eric Sauquet,Mojca Šraj,Ján Szolgay,Elena Volpi,Donna Wilson,Klodian Zaimi,Nenad Živković +47 more
TL;DR: Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.
Journal ArticleDOI
Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?
Elizabeth J. Kendon,Nikolina Ban,Nigel Roberts,Hayley J. Fowler,Malcolm J. Roberts,Steven Chan,Jason P. Evans,Giorgia Fosser,Jonathan M. Wilkinson +8 more
TL;DR: The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States as discussed by the authors.
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early model
E. M. Fischer,R. Knutti +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
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TL;DR: A physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate is given and it is shown that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur.
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