Journal ArticleDOI
The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes
TLDR
In this paper, the authors used observations and high-resolution modeling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture, and that the scaling rates between extreme precipitation and temperature are strongly dependent on the region, temperature, and moisture availability.Abstract:
Climate change is causing increases in extreme rainfall across the United States. This study uses observations and high-resolution modelling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture. Extreme precipitation intensities have increased in all regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS)1 and are expected to further increase with warming at scaling rates of about 7% per degree Celsius (ref. 2), suggesting a significant increase of flash flood hazards due to climate change. However, the scaling rates between extreme precipitation and temperature are strongly dependent on the region, temperature3, and moisture availability4, which inhibits simple extrapolation of the scaling rate from past climate data into the future5. Here we study observed and simulated changes in local precipitation extremes over the CONUS by analysing a very high resolution (4 km horizontal grid spacing) current and high-end climate scenario that realistically simulates hourly precipitation extremes. We show that extreme precipitation is increasing with temperature in moist, energy-limited, environments and decreases abruptly in dry, moisture-limited, environments. This novel framework explains the large variability in the observed and modelled scaling rates and helps with understanding the significant frequency and intensity increases in future hourly extreme precipitation events and their interaction with larger scales.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed
TL;DR: The translation speed of tropical cyclones has decreased globally by 10% over the past 70 years, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates.
Journal ArticleDOI
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming
Francesco Dottori,Wojciech Szewczyk,Juan Carlos Ciscar,Fang Zhao,Lorenzo Alfieri,Yukiko Hirabayashi,Alessandra Bianchi,Ignazio Mongelli,Katja Frieler,Richard Betts,Richard Betts,Luc Feyen +11 more
TL;DR: In this article, a multi-model framework was used to estimate human losses, direct economic damage and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming) and socio-economic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in the absence of future adaptation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
Theodore G. Shepherd,Emily Boyd,Raphael Calel,Raphael Calel,Sandra C. Chapman,Sandra C. Chapman,Suraje Dessai,Ioana M. Dima-West,Hayley J. Fowler,Rachel James,Rachel James,Douglas Maraun,Olivia Martius,Catherine A. Senior,Adam H. Sobel,David A. Stainforth,David A. Stainforth,Simon F. B. Tett,Kevin E. Trenberth,Bart van den Hurk,Bart van den Hurk,Nicholas W. Watkins,Robert L. Wilby,Dimitri Zenghelis +23 more
TL;DR: A typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk.
Journal ArticleDOI
Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States
TL;DR: Observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data is presented that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to −34% in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long‐term trend, comparable to theUp to −37% loss by extreme drought from 1981 to 2016.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World
Amir AghaKouchak,Felicia Chiang,Laurie S. Huning,C. A. Love,Iman Mallakpour,Omid Mazdiyasni,Hamed Moftakhari,Simon Michael Papalexiou,Elisa Ragno,Mojtaba Sadegh +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the threats posed by climate extremes to human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave).
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
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An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
TL;DR: In this article, statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences are used to estimate the probability of a given event to be a hurricane or tropical cyclone, and the probability is determined by statistical methods.
Book
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
TL;DR: The second edition of "Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition" as mentioned in this paper presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting.
Journal ArticleDOI
MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications
Michele M. Rienecker,Max J. Suarez,Ronald Gelaro,Ricardo Todling,Julio T. Bacmeister,Julio T. Bacmeister,Emily Liu,Emily Liu,Michael G. Bosilovich,Siegfried D. Schubert,Lawrence L. Takacs,Lawrence L. Takacs,Gi-Kong Kim,S. C. Bloom,S. C. Bloom,Junye Chen,Junye Chen,Douglas Collins,Douglas Collins,Austin Conaty,Austin Conaty,Arlindo da Silva,Wei Gu,Wei Gu,Joanna Joiner,Randal D. Koster,Robert A. Lucchesi,Robert A. Lucchesi,Andrea Molod,Andrea Molod,Tommy Owens,Tommy Owens,Steven Pawson,Philip Pegion,Philip Pegion,Christopher R. Redder,Christopher R. Redder,Rolf H. Reichle,Franklin R. Robertson,Albert G. Ruddick,Albert G. Ruddick,Meta Sienkiewicz,Meta Sienkiewicz,John S. Woollen +43 more
TL;DR: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA's Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses as mentioned in this paper.
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Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
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