Feature
Review
A
horizon
scan
of
global
conservation
issues
for
2014
William
J.
Sutherland
1
,
Rosalind
Aveling
2
,
Thomas
M.
Brooks
3
,
Mick
Clout
4
,
Lynn
V.
Dicks
1
,
Liz
Fellman
5
,
Erica
Fleishman
6
,
David
W.
Gibbons
7
,
Brandon
Keim
8
,
Fiona
Lickorish
9
,
Kathryn
A.
Monk
10
,
Diana
Mortimer
11
,
Lloyd
S.
Peck
12
,
Jules
Pretty
13
,
Johan
Rockstro¨
m
14
,
Jon
Paul
Rodrı
´
guez
15
,
Rebecca
K.
Smith
1
,
Mark
D.
Spalding
16
,
Femke
H.
Tonneijck
17
,
and
Andrew
R.
Watkinson
18
1
Conservation
Science
Group,
Department
of
Zoology,
Cambridge
University,
Downing
Street,
Cambridge,
CB2
3EJ,
UK
2
Fauna
&
Flora
International,
4th
Floor,
Jupiter
House,
Station
Road,
Cambridge,
CB1
2JD,
UK
3
International
Union
for
Conservation
of
Nature,
28
rue
Mauverney,
CH-1196
Gland,
Switzerland
4
Centre
for
Biodiversity
and
Biosecurity,
School
of
Biological
Sciences,
University
of
Auckland,
PB
92019,
Auckland,
New
Zealand
5
Natural
Environment
Research
Council,
Polaris
House,
North
Star
Avenue,
Swindon,
SN2
1EU,
UK
6
John
Muir
Institute
of
the
Environment,
The
Barn,
One
Shields
Avenue,
University
of
California,
Davis,
CA
95616,
USA
7
Royal
Society
for
the
Protection
of
Birds,
The
Lodge,
Sandy,
SG19
2DL,
UK
8
WIRED,
520
3rd
Street,
Third
Floor
at
Bryant
Street,
San
Francisco,
CA
94107,
USA
9
Centre
for
Environmental
Risks
and
Futures,
Cranfield
University,
Cranfield,
MK43
0AL,
UK
10
Natural
Resources
Wales,
Cambria
House,
29
Newport
Road,
Cardiff,
CF24
0TP,
UK
11
Joint
Nature
Conservation
Committee,
Monkstone
House,
City
Road,
Peterborough,
PE1
1JY,
UK
12
British
Antarctic
Survey,
Natural
Environment
Research
Council,
High
Cross,
Madingley
Road,
Cambridge,
CB3
0ET,
UK
13
Essex
Sustainability
Institute
and
Department
of
Biological
Sciences,
University
of
Essex,
Colchester,
CO4
3SQ,
UK
14
Stockholm
Resilience
Center,
Stockholm
University,
Kra
¨
ftriket
2B,
SE-106
19,
Stockholm,
Sweden
15
Center
for
Ecology,
Venezuelan
Institute
for
Scientific
Investigation
(Instituto
Venezolano
de
Investigaciones
Cientı
´ficas
—
IVIC),
Apdo.
20632,
Caracas
1020-A,
Venezuela
16
Global
Marine
Team,
The
Nature
Conservancy,
Department
of
Zoology,
Cambridge
University,
Downing
Street,
Cambridge,
CB2
3EJ,
UK
17
Wetlands
International,
PO
Box
471,
6700
AL
Wageningen,
The
Netherlands
18
School
of
Environmental
Sciences,
University
of
East
Anglia,
Norwich,
NR4
7TJ,
UK
This
paper
presents
the
output
of
our
fifth
annual
hori-
zon-scanning
exercise,
which
aims
to
identify
topics
that
increasingly
may
affect
conservation
of
biological
diver-
sity,
but
have
yet
to
be
widely
considered.
A
team
of
professional
horizon
scanners,
researchers,
practi-
tioners,
and
a
journalist
identified
15
topics
which
were
identified
via
an
iterative,
Delphi-like
process.
The
15
topics
include
a
carbon
market
induced
financial
crash,
rapid
geographic
expansion
of
macroalgal
cultivation,
genetic
control
of
invasive
species,
probiotic
therapy
for
amphibians,
and
an
emerging
snake
fungal
disease.
Reasons
for
scanning
the
horizon
Horizon
scanning
is
the
systematic
search
for,
and
exami-
nation
of,
potentially
significant
medium-
to
long-term
threats
and
opportunities
that
are
not
well
recognized
within
a
particular
field
[1].
The
focus
of
this
horizon
scan
is
conservation,
and
it
comprises
the
fifth
in
a
series
of
annual
assessments
[2–5].
Early
identification
of
plausible
future
issues
for
conservation
could
reduce
the
probability
of
sudden
confrontation
with
major
social
or
environmen-
tal
changes,
such
as
the
introduction
of
biofuels
in
the
USA,
Canada,
and
the
European
Union
(EU)
[1,6,7].
Horizon
scanning
may
also
raise
awareness
and
provide
momen-
tum
to
scientific,
technological,
and
policy
innovation.
The
use
of
horizon
scanning
in
conservation
is
increas-
ing.
A
parallel
series
of
exercises
has
identified
forthcom-
ing
changes
in
legislation
that
are
likely
to
affect
countries
in
the
UK,
the
rest
of
the
EU,
and
elsewhere
[8–10].
We
are
aware
of
planned
horizon
scans
on
environmental
change
in
Antarctica,
management
of
zoos
and
aquaria,
and
wet-
lands.
High-priority
questions
for
research
and
policy-
making
have
also
been
identified
for
agriculture
and
natu-
ral
resource
management
at
national
and
international
levels
[11–13].
Such
assessments
of
research
and
policy
questions
can
be
stimulated
by
horizon
scans.
The
utility
of
horizon
scans,
individually
or
in
aggre-
gate,
can
be
assessed
in
part
by
whether
they
succeeded
in
identifying
topics
that
became
major
issues
within
a
speci-
fied
time
frame,
in
our
case
years
to
decades.
Several
environmental
topics
identified
by
horizon
scans
published
Review
0169-5347/$
–
see
front
matter
ß
2013
Elsevier
Ltd.
All
rights
reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004
Corresponding
author:
Sutherland,
W.J.
(w.sutherland@zoo.cam.ac.uk).
Keywords:
climate
change;
diseases;
future;
horizon
scan;
priority
setting.
Trends
in
Ecology
&
Evolution,
January
2014,
Vol.
29,
No.
1
15
in
TREE
over
the
past
4
years,
such
as
artificial
life,
synthetic
meat
[2],
and
hydraulic
fracturing
[3],
have
indeed
moved
from
the
horizon
to
the
present,
and
are
now
widely
discussed
and
better
understood
(see,
for
ex-
ample,
[14]).
The
probability
of
a
horizon
issue
becoming
current
may
sometimes
be
low,
but
the
issue
nevertheless
warrants
identification
if
its
effects
could
be
substantial.
Thus,
it
is
not
expected
that
all
topics
identified
in
a
horizon
scan
will
become
prominent.
An
alternative
metric
of
the
value
of
horizon
scanning
could
be
a
reduction
in
the
proportion
of
emerging
issues
that
were
not
identified.
If
forthcoming
major
issues
are
identified,
then
another
measure
of
the
importance
of
horizon
scanning
is
the
extent
to
which
it
encourages
researchers
to
study
emerg-
ing
topics,
and
policy
makers
and
practitioners
to
be
vigi-
lant
and
consider
their
responses
should
the
issues
be
realized
(e.g.,
[15]).
A
mechanism
for
increasing
the
utility
of
a
horizon
scan
to
serve
this
role
is
to
use
the
scan
to
guide
future
strategies
or
funding.
For
example,
the
Intergov-
ernmental
Platform
on
Biodiversity
and
Ecosystem
Ser-
vices
(IPBES),
which
held
its
first
plenary
meeting
in
2011,
seeks
to
lead
the
global
scientific
community
in
responding
to
major
environmental
changes.
It
has
been
suggested
that
IPBES
use
horizon
scanning
to
develop
its
work
program
[16],
and
Germany
is
already
doing
so
to
guide
its
input
to
the
Platform.
The
outputs
of
horizon
scans
can
directly
inform
policy-
making.
For
example,
during
the
continuing
development
and
implementation
of
the
Food
Safety
Modernization
Act
in
the
USA,
federal
regulators
became
aware
that
sterile
farming
could
affect
natural
communities
and
ecosystems.
The
regulators
were
informed
in
part
by
identification
of
sterile
farming
in
our
2012
horizon
scan
[4]
and
by
subse-
quently
published
analyses
of
the
potential
environmental
effects
of
sterile
farming
([17];
personal
communication
Gennet
2013).
Thus,
arguably
the
greatest
value
of
horizon
scanning
is
stimulating
action
to
prevent
a
plausible
threat
from
being
realized.
Identification
of
issues
The
methods
used
in
this
horizon
scan,
described
in
[18],
were
the
same
as
in
our
previous
scans.
The
inclusive,
transparent,
and
structured
communication
process
we
adopted
is
a
modification
of
the
Delphi
technique,
which
was
developed
for
systematic
forecasting
[19,20].
The
20
core
participants
in
the
horizon
scan
(the
authors)
include
professional
horizon
scanners
and
experts
in
disciplines
relevant
to
conservation
science
who
collec-
tively
are
affiliated
with
organizations
with
diverse
re-
search,
management,
and
communications
mandates.
Each
participant,
independently
or
in
consultation
with
others,
suggested
two
or
more
issues
that
they
considered
to
be
emerging,
of
global
scope
or
relevance,
and
not
widely
known
within
the
conservation
community.
At
least
369
individuals
actively
contributed
to
the
generation
of
ideas,
of
whom
approximately
150
were
reached
through
broad
solicitation
of
the
expert
commissions
of
the
International
Union
for
Conservation
of
Nature.
Short
(approximately
200-word)
descriptions
of
the
resulting
81
issues
were
distributed
to
all
core
participants,
who
scored
each
issue
from
1
(well
known,
or
poorly
known
but
unlikely
to
have
substantial
environmental
effects)
to
1000
(poorly
known
and
likely
to
have
substantial
environmental
effects).
Scores
were
converted
to
ranks
and
the
rank
for
each
issue
averaged
across
participants.
The
35
issues
with
highest
mean
ranks,
an
additional
four
issues
inadvertently
omit-
ted
from
the
first
round
of
scoring,
and
four
issues
that
participants
thought
warranted
further
consideration
were
retained
for
further
discussion.
For
each
of
these
43
issues,
two
participants
who
had
not
suggested
the
issue
further
researched
its
technical
details
and
assessed
its
probability
of
becoming
prominent.
In
September
2013,
the
core
participants
met
in
Cam-
bridge,
UK.
Each
issue
was
discussed
in
turn.
The
person
who
suggested
the
issue
was
not
among
the
first
three
people
to
discuss
it.
Participants
then
independently
and
confidentially
scored
the
issues
again
as
described
above.
The
15
issues
with
the
highest
mean
ranks
are
presented
here.
The
order
of
presentation
does
not
reflect
mean
rank,
but
related
issues
are
placed
together.
The
issues
Response
of
financial
markets
to
unburnable
carbon
There
is
an
incompatibility
between
current
stock
market
valuation
of
the
fossil
fuel
industry,
which
is
based
on
known
and
projected
fuel
reserves,
and
governmental
commitments
to
prevent
a
rise
in
global
average
tempera-
ture
of
more
than
28C
above
pre-industrial
levels
[21].
It
has
been
suggested
that
the
carbon
budget
from
2013
through
2050
should
not
exceed
approximately
600–
900
Gt
CO
2
for
the
probability
of
a
>28C
temperature
increase
to
remain
20%
[21–23].
By
comparison,
the
carbon
embedded
in
the
known
global
coal,
oil,
and
natural
gas
reserves
amounts
to
2860
Gt
CO
2
.
Reliable
reserves
held
by
companies
listed
on
stock
exchanges
around
the
world
already
amount
to
762
Gt
CO
2
.
Nonetheless,
the
industry
invests
approximately
US$650
billion/yr
in
ex-
ploring
new
fossil-energy
sources
and
in
new
extraction
methods
[21].
For
the
200
largest
listed
companies
in
the
world,
these
reserves
have
an
estimated
market
value
of
US$4
trillion.
However,
this
market
value
may
decline
sharply
if
fossil
fuels
are
not
burned
because
regulations
are
developed
to
comply
with
international
agreements
on
emission
limits.
If
investors
and
regulators
do
not
address
these
trade-offs,
governments
may
be
forced
to
choose
between
preventing
further
climate
change
(risking
a
fi-
nancial
crisis)
or
preventing
a
financial
crisis
(risking
further
climate
change).
Extensive
land
loss
in
Southeast
Asia
from
subsidence
of
peatlands
In
recent
decades,
over
10
million
hectares
of
coastal
and
lowland
peat
swamp
forest
in
Southeast
Asia
have
been
converted
to
drainage-based
agriculture
and
plantations
[24],
resulting
in
rapid
peat
oxidation
[25,26].
Combined
with
compaction
and
shrinkage
of
peat,
this
conversion
will
lead
to
subsidence
of
almost
all
lowland
peat
in
Indonesia
and
Malaysia
by
as
much
as
2.5
m
within
50
years
and
4
m
within
100
years
[26].
In
coastal
areas
and
floodplains,
subsidence
could
increase
the
probability
of
inundation
well
beyond
projected
effects
of
climate
change,
such
as
rising
sea
levels.
In
the
Netherlands,
long-term
drainage
of
Review
Trends
in
Ecology
&
Evolution
January
2014,
Vol.
29,
No.
1
16
peat
for
agriculture
has
led
to
subsidence
of
extensive
areas
to
6–8
m
below
sea
level.
Costly
systems,
such
as
dykes,
and
pump-operated
drainage
systems
have
been
necessary
to
avoid
inundation
of
densely
populated,
eco-
nomically
productive
areas
[27,28].
The
high
intensity
of
rainfall
in
Southeast
Asia
means
that
mitigation
measures
applied
in
the
temperate
zone
may
not
be
effective
and
that
extensive
areas
will
be
flooded.
Yet,
the
focus
of
research,
policy,
and
planning
has
been
subsidence
and
associated
flooding
in
urban
areas
[29];
peatland
subsidence
in
rural
areas
has
not
been
taken
into
account.
Carbon
solar
cells
as
an
alternative
source
of
renewable
energy
Silicon-based
solar
photovoltaic
cells
are
becoming
a
prom-
ising
source
of
renewable
energy
as
their
installation
costs
decrease,
potentially
reducing
the
magnitude
of
climate
change.
However,
construction
requires
rare
conductive
metals
and
indium
tin
oxide.
Researchers
have
now
built
the
first
carbon
solar
cell,
in
which
both
the
active
layer
and
electrodes
are
carbon
[30].
In
a
carbon
solar
cell,
silver
and
indium
tin
oxide
are
replaced
by
graphene
and
single-
walled
carbon
nanotubes,
which
are
efficient
conductors
and
light
absorbers.
Methods
for
producing
carbon
nano-
tubes,
graphene,
and
fullerenes
have
also
advanced
sub-
stantially.
Coating
can
be
applied
from
solution,
thus
enabling
the
cells
to
be
more
flexible
compared
with
rigid
silicon
cells.
The
thin-film
cells
that
have
been
built
with
a
carbon-based
active
layer
are
prototypes
with
relatively
low
efficiency
(approximately
1%
of
solar
energy
is
con-
verted
to
electrical
energy,
compared
with
the
20%
solar
conversion
efficiency
of
silicon-based
solar
cells;
[31]).
How-
ever,
mass
production
could
result
in
cheaper
cells
that
could
be
installed
on
land
(including
on
buildings)
or
in
water,
or
worn
by
humans.
The
area
necessary
to
operate
carbon
cells
is
smaller
per
unit
energy
than
that
of
operat-
ing
photovoltaic
arrays
[32].
Carbon
solar
cells
have
the
potential
to
reduce
demands
for
other
means
of
generating
electricity
that
generate
greater
quantities
of
greenhouse
gases,
to
provide
electricity
in
regions
where
other
sources
of
electric
power
are
not
available,
and
to
power
remote-
tracking
or
data-recording
devices.
Rapid
geographic
expansion
of
macroalgal
cultivation
for
biofuels
Algae
have
long
been
harvested
for
human
consumption
and,
more
recently,
have
been
used
in
a
range
of
food,
biotechnology,
cosmetics,
and
other
industries.
Research
into
industrial-scale
macroalgal
use
as
biofuel
began
dur-
ing
the
1970s
[33],
and
there
is
now
evidence
that
initial
challenges
of
cost
and
efficiency
are
being
overcome
[34,35].
Potential
marine-based
biofuel
capacity
could
be
up
to
six
times
that
of
terrestrial
biofuels
[36]
and
both
governments
and
industry
are
now
investing
in
trials
and
modest
expansion
in,
for
example,
Australia,
Denmark,
Ireland,
Norway,
Portugal,
and
the
UK
(e.g.,
http://
www.biomara.org
and
http://www.seaweedenergysolution-
s.com).
Opportunities
for
expansion
of
macroalgal
produc-
tion
in
developing
countries
could
be
considerable
[37].
Unlike
many
biofuels,
macroalgae
do
not
compete
for
agricultural
space
or
for
freshwater.
However,
macroalgal
cultivation
still
requires
considerable
space
in
often
inten-
sively
used
coastal
waters,
and
may
suppress
benthic
communities,
such
as
seagrasses.
One
future
scenario
developed
by
the
UK
Government
included
over
470
000
ha
of
macroalgal
culture
by
2050
[38].
Although
macroalgal
cultivation
may
create
competition
with
other
sectors,
there
could
be
synergies
with
both
offshore
pro-
duction
of
renewable
energy
and
fish
cultivation
[39].
The
ecological
effects
of
extensive
production
are
as
yet
un-
known,
but
could
change
the
structure,
composition,
and
function
of
marine
environments
through
shading,
smoth-
ering,
and
the
alteration
of
nutrient
regimes
and
trophic
pathways.
Redistribution
of
global
temperature
increases
among
ecosystems
The
steady
increase
in
the
concentration
of
greenhouse
gases
has
resulted
in
temperature
increases
of
approxi-
mately
0.88C
at
the
surface
of
the
Earth
over
the
past
150
years.
However,
the
rate
of
surface
temperature
increase
has
slowed
over
the
past
decade.
The
change
in
rate
could
be
a
result
of
typical
climate
variability,
but
there
is
some
evidence
that
the
heat
has
been
redistributed
and
much
of
the
warming
has
occurred
in
the
ocean
at
depths
below
700
m,
rather
than
at
the
surface
[40–42].
Correction
of
the
data
for
changes
in
measurement
methods
does
not
remove
the
temporal
trend.
The
redistribution,
which
is
thought
to
result
from
changes
in
surface
winds
over
the
past
decade,
raises
uncertainties
about
the
capacity
of
the
deep
ocean
to
absorb
heat
energy,
potential
feedbacks
on
the
melting
of
polar
ice
sheet
due
to
upwelling
of
warmer
ocean
water,
and
the
effect
of
redistribution
on
ocean
currents.
Redis-
tribution
may
also
reduce
the
projected
magnitude
of
responses
of
organisms
that
live
on
land
or
near
the
sea
surface
to
increases
in
global
temperature.
Furthermore,
the
likely
effects
of
increases
in
ocean
temperature
on
deep
sea
and
other
marine
species
are
unknown.
Policy
makers
could
erroneously
interpret
the
reduced
rate
of
surface
temperature
increase
as
a
lower
climate
forcing
from
greenhouse
gas
emissions
rather
than
a
reflection
of
the
complex
interactions
of
natural
variability
and
global
re-
silience
to
greenhouse
gas
emissions.
This
misinterpreta-
tion
may
lead
to
calls
to
slow
policy
initiatives
aimed
at
reducing
greenhouse
gas
emissions.
High-frequency
monitoring
of
land-cover
change
As
new
satellites
and
remote
sensors
are
deployed,
the
quantity
and
quality
of
data
available
at
low
to
no
charge
will
increase
dramatically.
Simultaneously,
free
or
inex-
pensive
data
from
established
aerial
imagery
and
satellite
systems
will
enable
temporally
consistent
monitoring
of
land
cover.
The
moderate
resolution
imaging
spectroradi-
ometer
(MODIS)
and
Landsat
acquire
global
images
every
7–16
days
and
privately
operated
satellites,
such
as
the
Disaster
Monitoring
Constellation
3
(Surrey
Satellite
Technology
Ltd),
due
to
be
launched
in
2014,
have
the
potential
for
daily
acquisition
of
images
over
smaller
areas.
This
means
that
it
is
now
theoretically
possible
to
monitor
land
cover
in
near
real-time.
However,
data
processing
is
still
labor
intensive
and
image
quality
affects
interpreta-
tion.
Some
land-cover
types,
such
as
tropical
rain
forest,
Review
Trends
in
Ecology
&
Evolution
January
2014,
Vol.
29,
No.
1
17
urban,
and
certain
crops,
are
easy
to
monitor
(e.g.,
[43,44])
whereas
others,
such
as
native
grasslands
and
aquatic
types,
are
more
difficult.
Frequent,
fine-resolution
moni-
toring
is
currently
most
feasible
at
relatively
small
spatial
extents
(e.g.,
tens
of
km)
and
for
a
subset
of
land-cover
types,
in
particular
those
with
trees.
The
ability
to
monitor
land-use
change
at
high
temporal
frequency
over
larger
extents
could
inform
management
of
international
efforts
to
mitigate
climate
change,
or
certification
of
sustainable
farmed
food
or
fuel
products
in
global
supply
chains.
Anticipated
advances,
such
as
automated
image
proces-
sing,
the
differentiation
of
nonforest
land-cover
types,
and
the
identification
of
features
at
finer
resolutions,
will
make
this
technology
increasingly
useful.
Reaccelerated
loss
of
wild
rhinoceroses
and
elephants
Organized
crime
syndicates
are
driving
a
dramatic
accel-
eration
in
the
loss
of
elephants
and
rhinoceroses
across
Africa
and
Asia,
undermining
decades
of
concerted
conser-
vation
action.
The
number
of
forest
elephants
(Loxodonta
cyclotis)
in
central
Africa
declined
by
62%
between
2002
and
2011,
and
the
geographical
range
of
the
taxon
de-
creased
by
30%
[45].
High
human
population
density,
intensive
and/or
illegal
hunting,
absence
of
law
enforce-
ment,
poor
governance,
and
proximity
to
expanding
infra-
structure
are
fuelling
this
decline
[45].
Ivory
poaching
has
increased
dramatically
over
the
past
decade
[46],
largely
due
to
the
increasing
price
and
demand
for
ivory
in
China
[47,48].
Even
in
well-protected
reserves,
threats
to
the
species
have
escalated
[48].
The
International
Union
for
Conservation
of
Nature
(IUCN)
Species
Survival
Commis-
sion
estimated
that,
at
the
start
of
2013,
there
were
20
405
white
rhinoceros
(Ceratotherium
simum)
and
5055
black
rhinoceros
(Diceros
bicornis)
across
Africa;
by
September,
613
rhinoceros
had
been
poached
for
their
horn
in
South
Africa
alone,
many
more
than
in
2011
or
2012.
The
retail
price
of
rhinoceros
horn
in
user
countries
still
exceeds
that
of
gold
[49].
With
growing
wealth
in
Asia
and
as
the
species
become
scarcer,
their
value
might
increase
even
further
and
escalate
speculation
for
illegally
traded
commodities,
such
as
elephant
ivory
and
rhinoceros
horn.
Increasing
scale
of
eradications
of
non-native
mammals
on
islands
There
may
soon
be
a
step
change
in
the
potential
spatial
extent
of
eradications
of
non-native
invasive
mammals
on
islands
as
expertise
and
techniques
improve.
Such
meth-
ods
include
new
toxins
(e.g.,
para-aminopropiophenone),
and
the
use
of
global
positioning
systems
to
deliver
baits
aerially
[50]
(http://eradicationsdb.fos.auckland.ac.nz/).
Recent
or
current
extensive
programs
that
have
been
successful
include
the
eradication
of
rabbits
(Oryctolagus
cuniculus),
black
rats
(Rattus
rattus),
and
feral
domestic
cats
(Felis
catus)
from
Macquarie
Island
(12
800
ha),
and
goats
(Capra
aegagrus
hircus)
from
Aldabra
(15
400
ha)
and
Isabela
(463
000
ha).
The
eradication
of
reindeer
(Rangifer
tarandus),
brown
rats
(Rattus
norvegicus),
and
house
mice
(Mus
musculus)
from
South
Georgia
(360
000
ha)
is
underway.
There
are
also
recent
examples
of
unsuccessful
eradication
campaigns,
such
as
Pacific
rats
(Rattus
exulans)
from
Henderson
Island
(4300
ha;
http://eradicationsdb.fos.auckland.ac.nz/).
The
potential
of
new
toxins
and
tools
(e.g.,
lures,
rechargeable
traps,
and
bait
dispensers)
to
attract
and
eradicate
non-native
mammals
at
low
densities
is
being
assessed.
Given
such
advances,
it
has
been
proposed
to
eradicate
all
non-native
invasive
mammalian
predators
[rats,
stoats
(Mustela
erminea),
and
possums
(Trichosurus
vulpecula)]
from
the
entire
New
Zealand
archipelago,
starting
with
Rakiura-Stewart
Island
(>174
000
ha)
[51].
A
more
con-
troversial
but
highly
publicized
campaign
(‘Cats
to
Go’;
http://garethsworld.com/catstogo)
encourages
New
Zeal-
and
citizens
to
protect
native
birds
by
ceasing
to
keep
domestic
cats
as
pets.
Spatially
extensive
eradications
increase
the
probability
of
conserving
native
species,
but
the
risks
of
failure
and
public
opposition
may
also
grow
as
the
extent
of
eradications
increases
and
encom-
passes
places
with
large
human
populations
(e.g.,
[52]).
Self-sustaining
genetic
systems
for
the
control
of
non-
native
invasive
species
Control
methods
for
some
invasive
species
are
highly
effective,
but
for
some
other
species,
current
control
meth-
ods
are
either
ineffective
or
nonexistent.
Genetic
control
techniques
that
transmit
heritable
elements
to
make
in-
dividuals
sterile
are
developing
rapidly
for
disease
vectors
with
substantial
effects
on
human
health,
such
as
Aedes
mosquitoes
[3,53].
Some
methods
being
proposed
and
de-
veloped
for
insects
spread
genes
through
a
population
despite
the
genes
conferring
a
reproductive
disadvantage.
In
principle,
the
use
of
such
genetic
systems
would
reduce
the
need
for
periodic
extensive
and
expensive
release
of
carriers
of
the
desired
traits.
This
makes
the
methods
more
applicable
to
eradication
or
control
of
large,
well-estab-
lished
populations
of
non-native
invasive
species,
which
could
increase
the
probability
of
conserving
native
species.
An
example
of
such
methods
is
the
proposed
use
of
homing
endonuclease
genes
[54],
which
replicate
in
the
genome
using
the
DNA
repair
mechanisms
of
the
cell.
These
genes
could
be
used
to
cause
mortality
or
sterility
in
a
particular
life
stage
or
sex
or
under
a
particular
set
of
conditions.
Another
example
is
cytoplasmic
male
sterility
in
plants,
where
genes
are
transmitted
through
mtDNA
[55].
Researchers
are
pursuing
theories
and
models
of
self-sus-
taining
genetic
control
of
non-native
invasive
fishes
[56]
and
plants
[55].
Beyond
effects
on
the
target
non-native
species,
the
potential
environmental
effects
of
these
sys-
tems,
such
as
the
unintended
transport
or
dispersal
of
target
species
to
other
locales,
horizontal
gene
transfer,
and
unforeseen
ecological
persistence
of
heritable
control
elements,
have
not
been
investigated
in
detail.
Probiotic
therapy
for
amphibians
Many
amphibian
populations
in
relatively
pristine
habi-
tats
are
in
decline
or
are
becoming
extirpated
due
to
the
skin
disease
chytridiomycosis
[57].
Probiotic
therapy
through
bioaugmentation
is
now
emerging
as
a
potential
solution
for
mitigating
this
disease
[57–59].
The
micro-
biome,
the
bacteria,
fungi,
and
viruses
that
live
within
and
upon
every
organism,
has
become
a
growing
area
of
human
health
research,
but
relatively
little
attention
has
been
paid
to
the
nonhuman
microbiome
[60].
Bioaugmentation
Review
Trends
in
Ecology
&
Evolution
January
2014,
Vol.
29,
No.
1
18
could
both
facilitate
reintroduction
of
amphibians
to
areas
from
which
they
have
been
extirpated
and
reduce
the
magnitude
of
declines
in
areas
not
yet
affected
by
chytri-
diomycosis
[57].
Although
the
concept
of
probiotic
therapy
is
promising,
laboratory
and
field
experiments
on
treat-
ment
of
amphibians
with
probiotic
baths
have
yielded
mixed
results,
and
the
method
has
not
yet
been
applied
over
large
natural
areas
[57–59,61].
Potential
environmen-
tal
effects
of
bioaugmentation
on
nontarget
amphibians
and
other
taxonomic
groups
are
not
well
known.
Similarly,
the
effects
of
human
activities
on
plant
and
animal
micro-
biomes,
and
upon
the
emergence
and
transmission
of
disease
[62],
especially
in
relation
to
the
release
of
anti-
biotics,
are
poorly
studied.
Emerging
snake
fungal
disease
Snake
fungal
disease
(SFD)
is
an
emerging
disease
of
wild
snakes
in
the
eastern
and
midwestern
USA.
The
likely
etiologic
agent
is
the
fungus
Ophidiomyces
(formerly
Chry-
sosporium)
ophiodiicola,
which
is
consistently
associated
with
the
often-fatal
skin,
face,
and
eye
lesions
characteris-
tic
of
the
disease
[63].
SFD
was
documented
in
captivity
[64]
but
infrequently
reported
from
the
wild
before
2006;
however,
its
incidence
appears
to
be
increasing
[63].
The
disease
has
now
been
documented
across
nine
US
states
and
in
seven
species,
and
is
likely
to
be
more
widespread.
Although
limited
long-term
monitoring
and
the
cryptic,
often
solitary
nature
of
snakes,
make
it
difficult
to
charac-
terize
definitively
mortality
rates,
transmission
patterns
and
population-level
effects,
these
may
be
substantial.
It
appears
that,
during
2006
and
2007,
SFD
contributed
to
a
50%
decline
in
the
abundance
of
timber
rattlesnake
(Cro-
talus
horridus)
in
New
Hampshire.
However,
the
disease
has
been
observed
in
regions
without
suspected
snake
declines
[63].
Indirect
infection
via
environmental
expo-
sure
rather
than
proximate
contact
may
be
possible
[65].
In
light
of
other
recently
emerged
fungal
diseases
that
have
caused
precipitous
and
spatially
extensive
population
declines
[66],
particularly
chytridiomycosis
in
amphibians
and
white
nose
syndrome
in
bats,
SSFD
may
warrant
an
increase
in
research
and
monitoring.
Precautions,
such
as
instrument
decontamination,
may
reduce
its
spread.
Polyisobutylene
as
a
marine
toxicant
Polyisobutylene
(PIB)
is
a
gas-impermeable
synthetic
rub-
ber
that
is
manufactured
and
used
globally
to
produce
lubricants,
adhesives,
sealants,
fuel
additives,
cling-film,
and
chewing
gum.
Global
consumption
is
projected
to
increase
by
approximately
40%
to
1.2
million
tons/yr
by
2017
[67].
Under
the
Marine
Pollution
Regulation
(MAR-
POL)
Convention,
PIB
can
be
discharged
in
limited
amounts
under
certain
conditions
*
.
PIB
is
hydrophobic:
on
contact
with
water,
it
becomes
waxy
and
sticky,
floating
either
on
or
near
the
surface.
It
has
been
found
to
adhere
to
the
bodies
of
birds,
especially
diving
species,
causing
immobilization,
hypothermia,
starvation,
and
eventually
death.
At
least
four
releases
of
PIB
have
led
to
mass
seabird
deaths
near
European
coasts
[68,69].
Little
is
known
about
decomposition
of
PIB
or
its
interactions
with
other
additives
or
cleaning
agents
used
in
ship-tank
wash-
ing.
Questions
about
the
effects
of
PIB
discharge
were
raised
at
the
Marine
Environment
Protection
Committee
2013
session
of
the
International
Marine
Organizations
[70].
In
response,
the
International
Parcel
Tankers
Asso-
ciation
suggested
recent
releases
were
not
standard
oper-
ating
procedure
and,
thus,
argued
against
regulation.
However,
international
monitoring
and
reporting
is
limit-
ed,
and
the
nature
and
extent
of
environmental
effects
remain
unknown.
Exploitation
of
Antarctica
Pressure
for
exploration
and
subsequent
exploitation
of
the
minerals
and
hydrocarbons
of
Antarctica
is
increasing.
The
Antarctic
Treaty
precludes
‘mineral
resource
activities’
un-
til
2048
and
states,
‘Antarctic
mineral
resource
activities
means
prospecting,
exploration
or
development,
but
does
not
include
scientific
research
activities
within
the
meaning
of
Article
III
of
the
Antarctic
Treaty.’
Although
prospecting
is
prohibited
by
the
treaty,
several
countries
have
substan-
tially
increased
their
geological
exploration,
which
has
been
interpreted
widely
as
a
step
towards
prospecting.
In
2011,
Russia
stated
its
intention
to
conduct
‘complex
investiga-
tions
of
the
Antarctic
mineral,
hydrocarbon
and
other
natu-
ral
resources’
as
part
of
its
research
on
the
Antarctic
continent
and
surrounding
seas
to
2020
[71].
These
actions
conflict
with
at
least
the
spirit
of
the
Madrid
Protocol,
yet
none
of
the
other
48
signatories
to
this
protocol
expressed
opposition
[72].
China
is
building
a
new
Antarctic
base
that,
according
to
the
western
press,
does
not
have
the
scientific
justification
required
by
the
Antarctic
Treaty
[71].
It
appears
likely
that
exploitation
will
occur,
and
access
to
the
continent
is
increasing
in
response
to,
for
example,
loss
of
glaciers
on
the
Antarctic
Peninsula.
Given
that
Antarctica
is
so
remote
and
ice
shelves
cover
extensive
seas,
removal
of
oil
spills
or
releases
of
toxicants
and
subsequent
recovery
is
likely
to
take
longer
than
elsewhere
in
the
world
and,
thus,
the
environmental
effects
may
be
greater.
Expansion
of
ecosystem
red
listing
In
2008,
the
IUCN
Commission
on
Ecosystem
Manage-
ment
launched
the
development
of
the
scientific
founda-
tions
for
a
Red
List
of
Ecosystems
[73]
to
complement
the
long-established
IUCN
Red
List
of
Threatened
Species
(http://www.iucnredlist.org).
Categories
and
criteria
have
been
published
[74]
with
the
aim
of
applying
them
across
all
ecosystems
by
2025
[73].
In
parallel,
interest
in
the
implementation
of
risk
assessments
at
national
and
re-
gional
levels
is
growing
rapidly.
Ecosystem
red
listing
of
the
terrestrial
ecosystems
of
the
Americas
is
underway
[75],
as
are
national-level
analyses
in
seven
Mesoamerican
and
South
American
countries.
Proposed
expansion
of
ecosystem
red
lists
to
Europe,
New
Zealand,
parts
of
Africa,
Oceania,
Asia,
and
other
regions
is
gaining
traction.
The
publication
of
these
assessments
could
lead
to
major
additional
resource
allocations
by
funding
agencies
be-
cause
the
assessments
will
provide
greater
clarity
on
which
*
Since
the
first
submission
of
this
article
in
September
2013,
the
working
group
of
the
International
Marine
Organization
on
the
Evaluation
of
Safety
and
Pollution
Hazards
of
Chemicals
has
proposed
that
high-viscosity
PIB
be
recategorized,
requiring
ships
to
wash
their
tanks
at
a
specialized
facility.
If
approved,
the
requirement
would
take
effect
on
1
July
2016
(http://www.imo.org/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/47-
PIB.aspx).
Review
Trends
in
Ecology
&
Evolution
January
2014,
Vol.
29,
No.
1
19