Journal ArticleDOI
OxCal: Versatile Tool for Developing Paleoearthquake Chronologies—A Primer
TLDR
The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above) as discussed by the authors provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties.Abstract:
Ages of paleoearthquakes (events), i.e., evidence of earthquakes inferred from the geologic record, provide a critical constraint on estimation of the seismic hazard posed by an active fault. The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above; Bronk Ramsey 2007, 2001) provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties. Although initially developed for the chronologic modeling of archaeological data from diverse sources ( e.g. , radiocarbon, historical knowledge, etc.), OxCal is readily adaptable to other disciplines requiring chronological modeling, such as paleoseismology (Fumal et al. 2002; Lindvall et al. 2002; Kelson et al. 2006; Noriega et al. 2006; Lienkaemper and Williams 2007; Yen et al. 2008).
OxCal employs Bayesian statistics as a means of incorporating all available chronological constraints. When radiocarbon ages are calibrated to calendar ages, the results can be expressed as probability distributions, which are often irregular and multimodal as shown in Figure 1. These distributions can be tightened by including additional chronological information. Stratigraphic order, the timing of the most recent event, and historical constraints are inputs to the model. Applying the stratigraphic order as a constraint is particularly powerful where calibrated age distributions overlap, in which case the modeling calculations reweight the distributions to reflect the knowledge that overlying layers must be younger.
This paper is intended as a primer for paleoseismologists or those modeling paleoseismic data. The current version of OxCal contains an option for additional output that is useful for seismic hazard modeling, such as mean and median values of age for paleoearthquakes (events); mean recurrence interval; and probability density functions for a variety of variables, including earthquake age, interval between events, and the average of all intervals. The standard deviation of the last quantity models the uncertainty …read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A plate boundary earthquake record from a wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand refines hazard estimates
Ursula Cochran,Kate Clark,Jamie Howarth,Glenn P. Biasi,Robert Langridge,Pilar Villamor,Kelvin Berryman,Marcus J. Vandergoes +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a ∼2000 year-long, seven-event earthquake record from John O'Groats wetland adjacent to the Alpine fault in New Zealand, one of the most active strike-slip faults.
Journal ArticleDOI
A systematic review of geological evidence for Holocene earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai-Suruga Trough, Japan
Ed Garrett,Ed Garrett,Osamu Fujiwara,Philip Garrett,Vanessa M.A. Heyvaert,Vanessa M.A. Heyvaert,Masanobu Shishikura,Yusuke Yokoyama,Aurélia Hubert-Ferrari,Helmut Brückner,Atsunori Nakamura,Marc De-Batist +11 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors summarise the current state of knowledge regarding geological evidence for past earthquakes and tsunamis along the Nankai-Suruga Trough and highlight issues over alternative hypotheses for proposed palaeoseismic evidence.
Journal ArticleDOI
Late Holocene great earthquakes in the eastern part of the Aleutian megathrust.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a Bayesian radiocarbon modeling approach to estimate the age and recurrence intervals of multiple great earthquakes for the Prince William Sound segment of the megathrust.
Journal ArticleDOI
Integration of paleoseismic data from multiple sites to develop an objective earthquake chronology: Application to the Weber segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a method to evaluate and integrate paleo-ismic data from multiple sites into a single, objective measure of earthquake timing and recurrence on discrete segments of active faults.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Development of the radiocarbon calibration program
TL;DR: This paper highlights some of the main developments to the radiocarbon calibration program, OxCal, including changes to the sampling algorithms used which improve the convergence of the Bayesian analysis.
Journal ArticleDOI
Timing of Large Earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek Strand of the San Andreas Fault Zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California
TL;DR: Paleismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Record of Large Earthquakes on the Southern Hayward Fault for the Past 500 Years
James J. Lienkaemper,Timothy E. Dawson,Stephen F. Personius,Gordon G. Seitz,Liam Reidy,David P. Schwartz +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, a paleoseismic investigation was conducted to better understand the Hayward fault 9.9s past earthquake behavior, using features that were judged to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stream Channel Offset and Late Holocene Slip Rate of the San Andreas Fault at the Van Matre Ranch Site, Carrizo Plain, California
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of well-preserved channels offset across the San Andreas fault at the Van Matre Ranch (VMR) site in the northwestern Elkhorn Hills area of the Carrizo Plain offer the opportunity to measure slip rate and examine geomorphic development of the channels.
Journal ArticleDOI
Timing of Late Holocene Paleoearthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault at the Fort Ross Orchard Site, Sonoma County, California
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used stratigraphic ordering and a statistical comparison of radiocarbon dates using the OxCal program, they estimate (at a 95% confidence level) that three pre-1906 surface ruptures at the Orchard site occurred at a.d. 1660, 1812, and 1040-1190.
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