Journal ArticleDOI
Skill of CMIP5 climate models in reproducing 20th century basic climate features in Central America
Hugo G. Hidalgo,Eric J. Alfaro +1 more
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A total of 107 climate runs from 48 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated for their ability to skillfully reproduce basic characteristics of late 20th century climate over Central America as discussed by the authors.Abstract:
A total of 107 climate runs from 48 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated for their ability to skillfully reproduce basic characteristics of late 20th century climate over Central America. The models were ranked according to metrics that take into consideration the mean and standard deviation of precipitation (pr) and surface temperature (tas), as well as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-pr teleconnection. Verification was performed by comparing model runs to observations and a reanalysis dataset. Based on the rankings, the best 13 models were further evaluated. Not surprisingly, the models showed better skill at reproducing mean tas patterns throughout the year. The skill is generally low for mean pr patterns, except for some models during March, April, and May. With a few exceptions, the skill was low for reproducing the observed monthly standard deviation patterns for both pr and tas. The ENSO-pr teleconnection was better simulated in the best 13 model runs compared to the sea-surface temperature global pattern characteristic of ENSO which showed low skill. The Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) appeared better modeled in July than in January. In January, there were instances of a double ITCZ pattern. Some models skillfully reproduced the seasonal distribution of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet index (CLLJ). More detailed research evaluating the specific performance of the models on a variety of time-scales and using parameters relevant to these and other climatic features of Central America is needed. This study facilitates a pre-selection of models that may be useful for this task.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a weighting strategy for use with the CMIP5 multi-model archive in the fourth National Climate Assessment, which considers both skill in the climatological performance of models over North America as well as the interdependency of models arising from common parameterizations or tuning practices.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs
Mansour Almazroui,M. Nazrul Islam,Fahad Saeed,Sajjad Saeed,Sajjad Saeed,Muhammad Ismail,Muhammad Azhar Ehsan,Muhammad Azhar Ehsan,Ismaila Diallo,Enda O’Brien,Moetasim Ashfaq,Daniel Martínez-Castro,Tereza Cavazos,Ruth Cerezo-Mota,Michael K. Tippett,William J. Gutowski,Eric J. Alfaro,Hugo G. Hidalgo,Alejandro Vichot-Llano,Jayaka D. Campbell,Shahzad Kamil,Shahzad Kamil,Irfan Ur Rashid,Irfan Ur Rashid,Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla,Tannecia S. Stephenson,Michael A. Taylor,Mathew Barlow +27 more
TL;DR: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States, Central America and the Caribbean as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America
Lee Hannah,Camila I. Donatti,Celia A. Harvey,Eric J. Alfaro,Daniel Andrés Rodriguez,Claudia Bouroncle,Edwin Castellanos,Freddy Diaz,Emily Fung,Hugo G. Hidalgo,Pablo Imbach,Peter Läderach,Jason P. Landrum,Ana Lucía Solano +13 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America and provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies
TL;DR: In this article, a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) for Central America from 1970 to 1999 was used to study climate variability and a climate change application.
Journal ArticleDOI
Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution
Pablo Imbach,Sin Chan Chou,André Lyra,Daniela Rodrigues,Daniel Andrés Rodriguez,Dragan Latinović,Gracielle Siqueira,Adan Silva,Lucas Garofolo,Selena Georgiou +9 more
TL;DR: Assessment of the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more
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Journal ArticleDOI
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TL;DR: The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance the authors' knowledge of climate variability and climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production
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Journal ArticleDOI
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Journal ArticleDOI
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Robert F. Adler,George J. Huffman,Alfred T. C. Chang,Ralph Ferraro,Pingping Xie,John E. Janowiak,B. Rudolf,Udo Schneider,Scott Curtis,David T. Bolvin,Arnold Gruber,Joel Susskind,P. A. Arkin,Eric Nelkin +13 more
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