Very early warning of next El Niño
Josef Ludescher,Avi Gozolchiani,Mikhail I. Bogachev,Armin Bunde,Shlomo Havlin,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber,Hans Joachim Schellnhuber +6 more
TLDR
An approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead, is developed and it is shown that this method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now it is announced that the approach indicated the return ofEl Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood.Abstract:
The most important driver of climate variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Nino event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Nino in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Nino to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.read more
Citations
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Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
Jakob Runge,Jakob Runge,Sebastian Bathiany,Erik M. Bollt,Gustau Camps-Valls,Dim Coumou,Dim Coumou,Ethan R. Deyle,Clark Glymour,Marlene Kretschmer,Miguel D. Mahecha,Jordi Muñoz-Marí,Egbert H. van Nes,Jonas Peters,Rick Quax,Markus Reichstein,Marten Scheffer,Bernhard Schölkopf,Peter Spirtes,George Sugihara,Jie Sun,Kun Zhang,Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler +24 more
TL;DR: An overview of causal inference frameworks is given, promising applications and methodological challenges are identified, and a causality benchmark platform is initiated to close the gap between method users and developers.
Journal ArticleDOI
Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Delphine Clara Zemp,Delphine Clara Zemp,Delphine Clara Zemp,Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Henrique M. J. Barbosa,Marina Hirota,Marina Hirota,Vincent Montade,Gilvan Sampaio,Arie Staal,Lan Wang-Erlandsson,Lan Wang-Erlandsson,Anja Rammig,Anja Rammig +13 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest, and the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño on the California Current System: Early assessment and comparison to past events
Michael G. Jacox,Michael G. Jacox,Elliott L. Hazen,Katherine D. Zaba,Daniel L. Rudnick,Christopher A. Edwards,Andrew M. Moore,Steven J. Bograd +7 more
TL;DR: The 2015-2016 El Nino is by some measures one of the strongest on record, comparable to the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 events that triggered widespread ecosystem change in the northeast Pacific as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world
Philip J. Ward,Brenden Jongman,Matti Kummu,Michael D. Dettinger,Frederiek Sperna Weiland,Hessel Winsemius +5 more
TL;DR: A modeling framework to assess El Niño Southern Oscillation’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages, shows that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk.
References
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