WhaleWatch: a dynamic management tool for predicting blue whale density in the California Current
Elliott L. Hazen,Elliott L. Hazen,Daniel M. Palacios,Karin A. Forney,Evan A. Howell,Elizabeth A. Becker,Aimee L. Hoover,Ladd M. Irvine,Monica L. DeAngelis,Steven J. Bograd,Bruce R. Mate,Helen Bailey +11 more
TLDR
In this paper, the authors developed a satellite-telemetry-based habitat model in a case-control design for Eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus that was combined with previously published abundance estimates to predict habitat preference and densities.Abstract:
Summary
Management of highly migratory species is reliant on spatially and temporally explicit information on their distribution and abundance. Satellite telemetry provides time-series data on individual movements. However, these data are underutilized in management applications in part because they provide presence-only information rather than abundance information such as density.
Eastern North Pacific blue whales are listed as threatened, and ship strikes have been suggested as a key factor limiting their recovery. Here, we developed a satellite-telemetry-based habitat model in a case–control design for Eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus that was combined with previously published abundance estimates to predict habitat preference and densities. Further, we operationalize an automated, near-real-time whale density prediction tool based on up-to-date environmental data for use by managers and other stakeholders.
A switching state-space movement model was applied to 104 blue whale satellite tracks from 1994 to 2008 to account for errors in the location estimates and provide daily positions (case points). We simulated positions using a correlated random walk model (control points) and sampled the environment at each case and control point. Generalized additive mixed models and boosted regression trees were applied to determine the probability of occurrence based on environmental covariates. Models were used to predict 8-day and monthly resolution, year-round density estimates scaled by population abundance estimates that provide a critical tool for understanding seasonal and interannual changes in habitat use.
The telemetry-based habitat model predicted known blue whale hot spots and had seasonal agreement with sightings data, highlighting the skill of the model for predicting blue whale habitat preference and density. We identified high interannual variability in occurrence emphasizing the benefit of dynamic models compared to multiyear averages.
Synthesis and applications. This near-real-time tool allows a more accurate examination of the year-round spatio-temporal overlap of blue whales with potentially harmful human activities, such as shipping. This approach should also be applicable to other species for which sufficient telemetry data are available. The dynamic predictive product developed here is an important tool that allows managers to consider finer-scale management areas that are more economically feasible and socially acceptable.read more
Citations
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A dynamic ocean management tool to reduce bycatch and support sustainable fisheries.
Elliott L. Hazen,Elliott L. Hazen,Elliott L. Hazen,Kylie L. Scales,Kylie L. Scales,Sara M. Maxwell,Dana K. Briscoe,Heather Welch,Steven J. Bograd,Steven J. Bograd,Helen Bailey,Scott R. Benson,Scott R. Benson,Tomo Eguchi,Heidi Dewar,Suzy Kohin,Daniel P. Costa,Larry B. Crowder,Rebecca L. Lewison +18 more
TL;DR: A new multispecies and dynamic approach that uses daily satellite data to track ocean features and aligns scales of management, species movement, and fisheries is introduced, finding that dynamic closures could be 2 to 10 times smaller than existing static closures while still providing adequate protection of endangered nontarget species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Animal-borne telemetry: An integral component of the ocean observing toolkit
Robert Harcourt,Ana M. M. Sequeira,Xuelei Zhang,Fabien Roquet,Kosei Komatsu,Michelle R. Heupel,Clive R. McMahon,Fred Whoriskey,Mark G. Meekan,Gemma Carroll,Stephanie Brodie,Colin A. Simpfendorfer,Mark A. Hindell,Ian D. Jonsen,Daniel P. Costa,Barbara A. Block,Mônica M. C. Muelbert,Bill Woodward,Mike Weise,Kim Aarestrup,Mark Biuw,Lars Boehme,Steven J. Bograd,Dorian Cazau,Jean-Benoît Charrassin,Steven J. Cooke,Paul D. Cowley,P J Nico de Bruyn,Tiphaine Jeanniard du Dot,Carlos M. Duarte,Víctor M. Eguíluz,Luciana C. Ferreira,Juan Fernández-Gracia,Kimberly T. Goetz,Yusuke Goto,Christophe Guinet,Mike O. Hammill,Graeme C. Hays,Elliott L. Hazen,Luis A. Hückstädt,Charlie Huveneers,Sara J. Iverson,Saifullah Arifin Jaaman,Kongkiat Kittiwattanawong,Kit M. Kovacs,Christian Lydersen,Tim Moltmann,Masaru Naruoka,Lachlan R. Phillips,Baptiste Picard,Nuno Queiroz,Gilles Reverdin,Katsufumi Sato,David W. Sims,Eva M. Thorstad,Michele Thums,Anne M. Treasure,Andrew W. Trites,Guys D. Williams,Yoshinari Yonehara,Michael A. Fedak +60 more
TL;DR: The use of animal telemetry is a powerful tool for observing marine animals and the physical environments that they inhabit, from coastal and continental shelf ecosystems to polar seas and open oceans.
Journal ArticleDOI
Memory and resource tracking drive blue whale migrations.
Briana Abrahms,Elliott L. Hazen,Ellen O. Aikens,Matthew S. Savoca,Jeremy A. Goldbogen,Steven J. Bograd,Michael G. Jacox,Michael G. Jacox,Ladd M. Irvine,Daniel M. Palacios,Bruce R. Mate +10 more
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that both long-term memory and resource tracking play key roles in the long-distance migrations of marine megafauna, and that ecological theory of animal migrations is conserved across marine and terrestrial systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Habitat compression and ecosystem shifts as potential links between marine heatwave and record whale entanglements.
Jarrod A. Santora,Nathan J. Mantua,Isaac D. Schroeder,John C. Field,Elliott L. Hazen,Steven J. Bograd,William J. Sydeman,Brian K. Wells,John Calambokidis,Lauren Saez,Dan Lawson,Karin A. Forney +11 more
TL;DR: Increased whale entanglements in the northeast Pacific following a marine heatwave is reported, and compression of coastal upwelling habitat is proposed as the potential driver.
Journal ArticleDOI
Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products
Mark R. Payne,Alistair J. Hobday,Brian R. MacKenzie,Desiree Tommasi,Danielle P. Dempsey,Sascha M. M. Fässler,Alan C. Haynie,Rubao Ji,Gang Liu,Patrick D. Lynch,Daniela Matei,Anna Katharina Miesner,Katherine E. Mills,Kjersti Opstad Strand,Ernesto Villarino +14 more
TL;DR: A set of criteria is proposed to quickly identify “low-hanging fruit” that can potentially be predicted that are of great value in the management of living marine resources and ensuring the usefulness of forecast products also requires close collaboration with actively engaged end-users.
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