Showing papers by "David C. Schwebel published in 2020"

Population ageing and mortality during 1990-2017: A global decomposition analysis.

Abstract: Background As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death. Methods and findings Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates. Conclusions In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study.

Abstract: __Background:__ Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. __Methods:__ Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. __Results:__ Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. __Conclusions:__ There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low-and middle-income countries.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, agestandardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in highburden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Abstract: Background: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results: Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions: The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Abstract: Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Abstract: BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Objectives This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. Methods The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. Results In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39–1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3–86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. Conclusions Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract: Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global road traffic injury statistics: Challenges, mechanisms and solutions

Abstract: High-quality data are the foundation to monitor the progress and evaluate the effects of road traffic injury prevention measures Unfortunately, official road traffic injury statistics delivered by governments worldwide, are often believed somewhat unreliable and invalid We summarized the reported problems concerning the road traffic injury statistics through systematically searching and reviewing the literature The problems include absence of regular data, under-reporting, low specificity, distorted cause spectrum of road traffic injury, inconsistency, inaccessibility, and delay of data release We also explored the mechanisms behind the problematic data and proposed the solutions to the addressed challenges for road traffic statistics

Roles of individual differences and traffic environment factors on children's street-crossing behaviour in a VR environment.

Abstract: Objective Pedestrian injuries are among the most common cause of death and serious injury to children. A range of risk factors, including individual differences and traffic environment factors, has been investigated as predictors of children’s pedestrian behaviours. There is little evidence examining how risk factors might interact with each other to influence children’s risk, however. The present study examined the independent and joint influences of individual differences (sex and sensation seeking) and traffic environment factors (vehicle speeds and inter-vehicle distances) on children’s pedestrian safety. Methods A total of 300 children aged 10–13 years were recruited to complete a sensation-seeking scale, and 120 of those were selected for further evaluation based on having high or low sensation-seeking scores in each gender, with 30 children in each group. Children’s pedestrian crossing behaviours were evaluated in a virtual reality traffic environment. Results Children low in sensation seeking missed more opportunities to cross and had longer start gaps to enter the roadway compared with those high in sensation seeking, and these effects were more substantial when vehicles were spread further apart but travelling slowly. Interaction effects between inter-vehicle distance and vehicle speed were also detected, with children engaging in riskier crossings when the car was moving more quickly and the vehicles were spread further than when the vehicles were moving quickly but were closer together. No sex differences or interactions emerged. Conclusion Both sensation seeking and traffic environment factors impact children’s behaviour in traffic, and there are interactions between traffic speeds and inter-vehicle distances that impact crossing behaviour.

Unsafe Bicycling Behavior in Changsha, China: A Video-Based Observational Study.

Abstract: The recent emergence of shared bikes has inspired renewed use of bicycles in urban China. However, incidence rates of unsafe cycling behaviors have not been reported using objective methods. We designed a video-based observational study in Changsha, China to estimate the incidence of five unsafe bicycling behaviors among both shared and personal bike riders and examine incidence differences across types of riders and cycling areas. A total of 112 h of video recorded 13,407 cyclists riding shared bikes and 2061 riding personal bikes. The incidences of not wearing a helmet, violating traffic lights, riding in the opposite direction of traffic, not holding the handlebar with both hands, and riding in a non-bicycle lane were 99.28%, 19.57%, 13.73%, 2.57%, and 64.06%, respectively. The incidence rate of all five kinds of behaviors differed significantly across four types of riding areas (shopping, university, office, and leisure) and the rates of the first three kinds of behaviors were statistically different between shared and personal bike riders. In situations where bicycle lanes were available, we observed the incidence of riding on the motorway and on the sidewalk to be 44.06% and 19.99%, respectively. We conclude that unsafe cycling behaviors occur with alarming frequency and differ somewhat between riders of shared versus personal bikes. Further research is recommended to interpret the occurrence of risky cycling and the incidence differences across types of riders and cycling areas.

Supporting caregiver use of child restraints in rural communities via interactive virtual presence

Abstract: When used correctly, child restraint systems (CRS) effectively reduce the risk of serious injury and death to child passengers in motor vehicle crashes. However, error rates in CRS use among caregivers are extremely high. Consultation with child passenger safety technicians (CPST) reduces misuse rates, but access to CPST is limited, particularly in rural areas. Remote consultation via interactive virtual presence (IVP) may increase access to CPST. One hundred and fifty caregivers in Southeast Montana completed remote consultation with CPST via IVP. Errors in CRS selection, installation, and child positioning were coded at baseline and postintervention in a within-subjects, pretest-posttest design. The proportion of caregivers making one or more errors in CRS selection (McNemar's test p < .001) and installation (McNemar's test p < .001), but not child positioning, significantly decreased following remote consultation. IVP is a promising mobile health (mHealth) strategy for providing remote consultation with CPST to improve rates of correct CRS use and mitigate child injury risk.

Smartphone-based Distracted Pedestrian Localization using Bluetooth Low Energy Beacons

Abstract: Distracted pedestrian behavior is a significant public health concern. Extensive observational and simulated research suggests that distracted pedestrians have a higher risk of injury compared to attentive pedestrians. In the United States alone, an estimated 6,480 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in 2017 (5,150 annual average for the past decade), and nearly 200,000 pedestrians were injured. These numbers have been increasing recently, with researchers hypothesizing that distraction by smartphone use may be a major contributor to the increase. One strategy to prevent pedestrian injuries and death would be through intrusive interruptions that warn distracted pedestrians directly on their smartphones. We developed a system, which combines a Bluetooth beacon-based system with a mobile app, to localize the distracted pedestrians when they approach a potentially dangerous traffic intersection.

Using Bluetooth beacon technology to reduce distracted pedestrian behaviour: a cross-over trial study protocol

Abstract: Objective Over 6400 American pedestrians die annually, a figure that is currently increasing. One hypothesised reason for the increasing trend is the role of mobile technology in distracting both pedestrians and drivers. Scientists and policy-makers have attended somewhat to distracted driving, but attention to distracted pedestrian behaviour has lagged. We will evaluate Bluetooth beacon technology as a means to alert and warn pedestrians when they approach intersections, reminding them to attend to the traffic environment and cross streets safely. Methods Bluetooth beacons are small devices that broadcast information unidirectionally within a closed proximal network. We will place beacons at an intersection frequently trafficked by urban college students. From there, the beacons will transmit to an app installed on users’ smartphones, signalling users to attend to their environment and cross the street safely. A cross-over trial will evaluate the app with 411 adults who frequently cross the target intersection on an urban university campus. We will monitor those participants’ behaviour over three distinct time periods: (1) 3 weeks without the app being activated, (2) 3 weeks with the app activated and (3) 4 weeks without the app activated to assess retention of behaviour. Throughout the 10-week period, we will gather information to evaluate whether the intervention changes distracted pedestrian behaviour using a logistic regression to estimate the likelihood of key behavioural outcome measures and adjusting for any residual confounding. We also will test for changes in perceived risk. The trial will follow CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement guidelines, as modified for cross-over design studies. Conclusion If this program proves successful, it offers exciting implications for future testing and ultimately for broad distribution to reduce distracted pedestrian behavior. We discuss issues of feasibility, acceptability and scalability.

The effects of sleep deprivation and text messaging on pedestrian safety in university students.

Abstract: Study objectives This study assesses the impact of sleep deprivation and text messaging on pedestrian injury risk. Methods A total of 36 university students engaged in a virtual reality pedestrian environment in two conditions: sleep deprived (no sleep previous night) and normal sleep (normal sleep routine). Sleep was assessed using actigraphy and pedestrian behavior via four outcomes: time to initiate crossing, time before contact with oncoming vehicle, hits/close calls, and looks left/right. During each condition, participants made half the crossings while text messaging. Participants also completed the Useful Field of View test, the Psychomotor Vigilance Test, and Conners' Continuous Performance Test in both conditions. Results While sleep deprived, students crossed significantly closer to oncoming vehicles compared with after normal sleep. While text messaging, crossed closer to vehicles and took longer to initiate crossings. Safety risks were amplified through combined sleep deprivation plus text messaging, leading to more virtual hits and close calls and shorter time before vehicle contact while crossing. Sleep-deprived students demonstrated impairments in functioning on cognitive tests. Conclusions University students' pedestrian behavior was generally riskier, and their cognitive functioning was impaired, when sleep deprived compared with after normal sleep. This effect was exacerbated when distracted by text messaging.

Children's Road-Crossing Behavior: Emotional Decision Making and Emotion-Based Temperamental Fear and Anger.

Abstract: Objective Child pedestrian injuries represent a global public health burden. To date, most research on psychosocial factors affecting children's risk of pedestrian injury focused on cognitive aspects of children's functioning in traffic. Recent evidence suggests, however, that emotional aspects such as temperament-based fear and anger/frustration, as well as executive function-based emotional decision making, may also affect children's safety in traffic. This study examined the role of emotions on children's pedestrian behavior. Three hypotheses were considered: (a) emotion-based temperament factors of fear and anger/frustration will predict children's risky decisions and behaviors; (b) emotional decision making will predict risky pedestrian decisions and behaviors; and (c) children's pedestrian decision making will mediate relations between emotion and risky pedestrian behavior. The role of gender was also considered. Methods In total, 140 6- to 7-year-old children (M = 6.7 years, SD = 0.39; 51% girls) participated. Parent-report subscales of Child Behavior Questionnaire measured temperamental fear and anger/frustration. The Hungry Donkey Task, a modified version of Iowa Gambling Task for children, measured children's emotional decision making, and a mobile virtual reality pedestrian environment measured child pedestrian behavior. Results Greater anger/frustration, lesser fear, and more emotional decision making all predicted poorer pedestrian decision making. The mediational model demonstrated that pedestrian decision making, as assessed by delays entering safe traffic gaps, mediated the relation between emotion and risky pedestrian behavior. Analyses stratified by gender showed stronger mediation results for girls than for boys. Conclusions These results support the influence of emotions on child pedestrian behavior and reinforce the need to incorporate emotion regulation training into child pedestrian education programs.

Injuries on the Youth Soccer (Football) Field: Do Additional Referees Reduce Risk? Randomized Crossover Trial.

Abstract: OBJECTIVE Youth soccer injury can be prevented through various means, but few studies consider the role of referees. Following previous research suggesting children take fewer risks when supervised intensely, this randomized crossover trial evaluated whether risky play and injuries decrease under supervision from three referees instead of one referee. METHODS Youth soccer clubs serving a metropolitan U.S. area participated. Boys' and girls' clubs at under age 10 (U10) and under age 11 (U11) levels were randomly assigned such that when the same clubs played each other twice in the same season, they played once with one referee and once with three referees. A total of 98 games were videotaped and subsequently coded to obtain four outcomes: collisions between players, aggressive fouls (involving physical player-to-player contact) called by the referee(s) on the field, aggressive fouls judged by trained coders, and injuries requiring adult attention or play stoppage. RESULTS Poisson mixed model results suggest players in the 98 games committed fewer aggressive fouls, as identified independently by referees (rate ratio [RR] 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.96) and by researchers (RR 0.67; 95% CI 0.50-0.90), when there were three referees versus one referee. Collisions (RR 0.98; 95% CI 0.86-1.12) and injury rates (RR 1.15; 95% CI 0.60-2.19) were similar across conditions. CONCLUSION When the same youth soccer clubs played with three referees rather than one, they committed fewer aggressive fouls. More intense supervision created better rule adherence. Injury rates were unchanged with increased supervision. Results raise questions concerning whether financial investment in additional referees on youth soccer fields yields safety benefits.