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Showing papers by "Ilya Mandel published in 2019"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a Bayesian framework for incorporating selection effects into population analyses is proposed, which allows for both measurement uncertainty in individual measurements and selection biases on the population of measurements, and shows how to extract the parameters of the underlying distribution based on a set of observations sampled from this distribution.
Abstract: We derive a Bayesian framework for incorporating selection effects into population analyses. We allow for both measurement uncertainty in individual measurements and, crucially, for selection biases on the population of measurements, and show how to extract the parameters of the underlying distribution based on a set of observations sampled from this distribution. We illustrate the performance of this framework with an example from gravitational-wave astrophysics, demonstrating that the mass ratio distribution of merging compact-object binaries can be extracted from Malmquist-biased observations with substantial measurement uncertainty.

260 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves.
Abstract: We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalogue of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of 0.39 dex around a mean metallicity 〈Z〉 that scales with redshift z as 〈Z〉 = 0.035 × 10−0.23z, assuming a star formation rate of 0.01×(1+z)2.77/(1+((1+z)/2.9)4.7)M⊙ Mpc−3 yr−1. Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80 per cent of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e. without experiencing a common-envelope event.

203 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The optical afterglow of GRB 170817A was observed by the Hubble Space Telescope between 2018 February and August, up to one year after the neutron star merger GW170817.
Abstract: We present observations of the optical afterglow of GRB 170817A, made by the Hubble Space Telescope, between 2018 February and August, up to one year after the neutron star merger GW170817. The afterglow shows a rapid decline beyond 170 days, and confirms the jet origin for the observed outflow, in contrast to more slowly declining expectations for “failed-jet” scenarios. We show here that the broadband (radio, optical, X-ray) afterglow is consistent with a structured outflow where an ultra-relativistic jet, with a Lorentz factor of Γ ≳ 100, forms a narrow core (∼5°) and is surrounded by a wider angular component that extends to ∼15°, which is itself relativistic (Γ ≳ 5). For a two-component model of this structure, the late-time optical decline, where F ∝ t ‑α , is α = 2.20 ± 0.18, and for a Gaussian structure the decline is α = 2.45 ± 0.23. We find the Gaussian model to be consistent with both the early ∼10 days and late ≳290 days data. The agreement of the optical light curve with the evolution of the broadband spectral energy distribution, and its continued decline, indicates that the optical flux is arising primarily from the afterglow and not any underlying host system. This provides the deepest limits on any host stellar cluster with a luminosity ≲4000 L ⊙ (M F606W ≳ ‑4.3).

141 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Leloudas et al. as discussed by the authors presented light curves and spectra of the tidal disruption event (TDE) ASASSN-18pg/AT 2018dyb spanning a period of one year.
Abstract: Author(s): Leloudas, G; Dai, L; Arcavi, I; Vreeswijk, PM; Mockler, B; Roy, R; Malesani, DB; Schulze, S; Wevers, T; Fraser, M; Ramirez-Ruiz, E; Auchettl, K; Burke, J; Cannizzaro, G; Charalampopoulos, P; Chen, TW; Cikota, A; Della Valle, M; Galbany, L; Gromadzki, M; Heintz, KE; Hiramatsu, D; Jonker, PG; Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Z; Maguire, K; Mandel, I; Nicholl, M; Onori, F; Roth, N; Smartt, SJ; Wyrzykowski, L; Young, DR | Abstract: We present light curves and spectra of the tidal disruption event (TDE) ASASSN-18pg/AT 2018dyb spanning a period of one year. The event shows a plethora of strong emission lines, including the Balmer series, He ii, He i, and metal lines of O iii λ3760 and N iii λλ4100, 4640 (blended with He ii). The latter lines are consistent with originating from the Bowen fluorescence mechanism. By analyzing literature spectra of past events, we conclude that these lines are common in TDEs. The spectral diversity of optical TDEs is thus larger than previously thought and includes N-rich events besides H- and He-rich events. We study how the spectral lines evolve with time, by means of their width, relative strength, and velocity offsets. The velocity width of the lines starts at ∼13,000 km s-1 and decreases with time. The ratio of He ii to N iii increases with time. The same is true for ASASSN-14li, which has a very similar spectrum to AT 2018dyb but its lines are narrower by a factor of g2. We estimate a black hole mass of M BH = 3.3-2.0+5.0 × 106 Mo˙ by using the M-σ relation. This is consistent with the black hole mass derived using the MOSFiT transient fitting code. The detection of strong Bowen lines in the optical spectrum is an indirect proof for extreme ultraviolet and (reprocessed) X-ray radiation and favors an accretion origin for the TDE optical luminosity. A model where photons escape after multiple scatterings through a super-Eddington thick disk and its optically thick wind, viewed at an angle close to the disk plane, is consistent with the observations.

78 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the plausibility of pulsational pair-instability supernovae in the context of isolated massive binaries, using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe.
Abstract: A population of binary black hole mergers has now been observed in gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The masses of these black holes appear to show evidence for a pile-up between $30$--$45$ $M_\odot$ and a cut-off above $\sim 45$ $M_\odot$. One possible explanation for such a pile-up and subsequent cut-off are pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) and pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) in massive stars. We investigate the plausibility of this explanation in the context of isolated massive binaries. We study a population of massive binaries using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe. Our models predict a maximum black hole mass of $40$ $M_\odot$. We expect $\sim 10$\% of all binary black hole mergers at redshift z = 0 will include at least one component that went through a PPISN (with mass $30$--$40$ $M_\odot$), constituting $\sim 20$--$50$\% of binary black hole mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. Empirical models based on fitting the gravitational-wave mass measurements to a combination of a power law and a Gaussian find a fraction too large to be associated with PPISNe in our models. The rates of PPISNe and PISNe track the low metallicity star formation rate, increasing out to redshift $z = 2$. These predictions may be tested both with future gravitational-wave observations and with observations of superluminous supernovae.

77 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the observed sample can be split into three distinct sub-populations based on their orbital characteristics: (i) low-eccentricity binaries; (ii) wide binaries; and (iii) short-period, high eccentricities binaries.
Abstract: In the past five years, the number of known double neutron stars (DNS) in the Milky Way has roughly doubled. We argue that the observed sample can be split into three distinct sub-populations based on their orbital characteristics: (i) short-period, low-eccentricity binaries; (ii) wide binaries; and (iii) short-period, high-eccentricity binaries. These sub-populations also exhibit distinct spin period and spindown rate properties. We focus on sub-population (iii), which contains the Hulse-Taylor binary. Contrary to previous analysis, we demonstrate that, if they are the product of primordial binary evolution, the $P_{\rm orb}$ and $e$ distribution of these systems requires that the second-born NSs must have been formed with small natal kicks ($\lesssim$25 km s$^{-1}$) and have pre-SN masses narrowly distributed around 3.2 M$_{\odot}$. These constraints challenge binary evolution theory and further predict closely aligned spin and orbital axes, inconsistent with the Hulse-Taylor binary's measured spin-orbit misalignment angle of $\approx$20$^{\circ}$. Motivated by the similarity of these DNSs to B2127+11C, a DNS residing in the globular cluster M15, we argue that this sub-population is consistent with being formed in, and then ejected from, globular clusters. This scenario provides a pathway for the formation and merger of DNSs in stellar environments without recent star formation, as observed in the host galaxy population of short gamma ray bursts and the recent detection by LIGO of a merging DNS in an old stellar population.

68 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate the plausibility of pulsational pair-instability supernovae in the context of isolated massive binaries, using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe.
Abstract: A population of binary black hole mergers has now been observed in gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Virgo. The masses of these black holes appear to show evidence for a pile-up between $30$--$45$ $M_\odot$ and a cut-off above $\sim 45$ $M_\odot$. One possible explanation for such a pile-up and subsequent cut-off are pulsational pair-instability supernovae (PPISNe) and pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) in massive stars. We investigate the plausibility of this explanation in the context of isolated massive binaries. We study a population of massive binaries using the rapid population synthesis software COMPAS, incorporating models for PPISNe and PISNe. Our models predict a maximum black hole mass of $40$ $M_\odot$. We expect $\sim 10$\% of all binary black hole mergers at redshift z = 0 will include at least one component that went through a PPISN (with mass $30$--$40$ $M_\odot$), constituting $\sim 20$--$50$\% of binary black hole mergers observed during the first two observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Virgo. Empirical models based on fitting the gravitational-wave mass measurements to a combination of a power law and a Gaussian find a fraction too large to be associated with PPISNe in our models. The rates of PPISNe and PISNe track the low metallicity star formation rate, increasing out to redshift $z = 2$. These predictions may be tested both with future gravitational-wave observations and with observations of superluminous supernovae.

53 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wyrzykowski et al. as discussed by the authors improved the mass estimates in the annual parallax microlensing events found in the 8 years of OGLE-III observations towards the Galactic Bulge with the use of Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2).
Abstract: Context: Gravitational microlensing is sensitive to compact-object lenses in the Milky Way, including white dwarfs, neutron stars or black holes, and could potentially probe a wide range of stellar remnant masses. However, the mass of the lens can be determined only in very limited cases, due to missing information on both source and lens distances and their proper motions. Aims: We aim at improving the mass estimates in the annual parallax microlensing events found in the 8 years of OGLE-III observations towards the Galactic Bulge (Wyrzykowski et al. 2016) with the use of Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2). Methods: We use Gaia DR2 data on distances and proper motions of non-blended sources and recompute the masses of lenses in parallax events. We also identify new events in that sample which are likely to have dark lens; the total number of such events is now 18. Results: The derived distribution of masses of dark lenses is consistent with a continuous distribution of stellar remnant masses. A mass gap between neutron-star and black-hole masses in the range between 2 and 5 solar masses is not favoured by our data, unless black holes receive natal-kicks above 20-80 km/s. We present 8 candidates for objects with masses within the putative mass gap, including a spectacular multi-peak parallax event with mass of $2.4^{+1.9}_{-1.3}\ M_\odot$ located just at 600 pc. The absence of an observational mass gap between neutron stars and black holes, or, conversely, the evidence for black hole natal kicks if a mass gap is assumed, can inform future supernova modelling efforts.

45 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, light curves and spectra of the tidal disruption event (TDE) ASASSN-18pg / AT 2018dyb spanning a period of one year are presented.
Abstract: We present light curves and spectra of the tidal disruption event (TDE) ASASSN-18pg / AT 2018dyb spanning a period of one year. The event shows a plethora of strong emission lines, including the Balmer series, He II, He I and metal lines of O III $\lambda$3760 and N III $\lambda\lambda$ 4100, 4640 (blended with He II). The latter lines are consistent with originating from the Bowen fluorescence mechanism. By analyzing literature spectra of past events, we conclude that these lines are common in TDEs. The spectral diversity of optical TDEs is thus larger than previously thought and includes N-rich events besides H- and He-rich events. We study how the spectral lines evolve with time, by means of their width, relative strength, and velocity offsets. The velocity width of the lines starts at $\sim$ 13000 km s$^{-1}$ and decreases with time. The ratio of He II to N III increases with time. The same is true for ASASSN-14li, which has a very similar spectrum to AT 2018dyb but its lines are narrower by a factor of $>$2. We estimate a black hole mass of $M_{\rm BH}$ = $3.3^{+5.0}_{-2.0}\times 10^6$ $M_{\odot}$ by using the $M$-$\sigma$ relation. This is consistent with the black hole mass derived using the MOSFiT transient fitting code. The detection of strong Bowen lines in the optical spectrum is an indirect proof for extreme ultraviolet and (reprocessed) X-ray radiation and favors an accretion origin for the TDE optical luminosity. A model where photons escape after multiple scatterings through a super-Eddington thick disk and its optically thick wind, viewed at an angle close to the disk plane, is consistent with the observations.

42 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a set of astrophysically motivated metrics to evaluate the performance of the third-generation laser interferometers were proposed and the impact of detector design choices against these metrics was analyzed.
Abstract: The second generation of gravitational-wave (GW) detectors are being built and tuned all over the world. The detection of signals from binary black holes is beginning to fulfil the promise of GW astronomy. In this work, we examine several possible configurations for third-generation laser interferometers in existing km-scale facilities. We propose a set of astrophysically motivated metrics to evaluate detector performance. We measure the impact of detector design choices against these metrics, providing a quantitative cost-benefit analyses of the resulting scientific payoffs.

37 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine a scenario in which massive stars merge after they have both formed a hydrogen-exhausted core and suggest that this could produce stars that explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) with significantly more hydrogen, at a given metallicity, than in single-star models with the same pre-explosion oxygen-rich core mass.
Abstract: Interactions between massive stars in binaries are thought to be responsible for much of the observed diversity of supernovae. As surveys probe rarer populations of events, we should expect to see supernovae arising from increasingly uncommon progenitor channels. Here we examine a scenario in which massive stars merge after they have both formed a hydrogen-exhausted core. We suggest that this could produce stars that explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) with significantly more hydrogen, at a given metallicity, than in single-star models with the same pre-explosion oxygen-rich core mass. We investigate the subset of those stellar mergers that later produce pulsational PISNe, and estimate that the rate of such post-merger, hydrogen-rich pulsational PISNe could approach a few in a thousand of all core-collapse supernovae. The nature and predicted rate of such hydrogen-rich pulsational PISNe are reminiscent of the very unusual supernova iPTF14hls. For plausible assumptions, PISNe from similar mergers might dominate the rate of PISNe in the local Universe.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an importance sampling algorithm, StroopWafer, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest.
Abstract: Gravitational-wave observations of double compact object (DCO) mergers are providing new insights into the physics of massive stars and the evolution of binary systems. Making the most of expected near-future observations for understanding stellar physics will rely on comparisons with binary population synthesis models. However, the vast majority of simulated binaries never produce DCOs, which makes calculating such populations computationally inefficient. We present an importance sampling algorithm, STROOPWAFEL, that improves the computational efficiency of population studies of rare events, by focusing the simulation around regions of the initial parameter space found to produce outputs of interest. We implement the algorithm in the binary population synthesis code COMPAS, and compare the efficiency of our implementation to the standard method of Monte Carlo sampling from the birth probability distributions. STROOPWAFEL finds ∼25–200 times more DCO mergers than the standard sampling method with the same simulation size, and so speeds up simulations by up to two orders of magnitude. Finding more DCO mergers automatically maps the parameter space with far higher resolution than when using the traditional sampling. This increase in efficiency also leads to a decrease of a factor of ∼3–10 in statistical sampling uncertainty for the predictions from the simulations. This is particularly notable for the distribution functions of observable quantities such as the black hole and neutron star chirp mass distribution, including in the tails of the distribution functions where predictions using standard sampling can be dominated by sampling noise.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present SN2018kzr, the fastest declining supernova-like transient, second only to the kilonova, AT2017gfo, which is characterized by a peak magnitude of M r = −17.98, a peak bolometric luminosity of ~1.4 × 1043 erg s−1, and a rapid decline rate of 0.48 ± 0.03 mag day−1 in the r band.
Abstract: We present SN2018kzr, the fastest declining supernova-like transient, second only to the kilonova, AT2017gfo. SN2018kzr is characterized by a peak magnitude of M r = −17.98, a peak bolometric luminosity of ~1.4 × 1043 erg s−1, and a rapid decline rate of 0.48 ± 0.03 mag day−1 in the r band. The bolometric luminosity evolves too quickly to be explained by pure 56Ni heating, necessitating the inclusion of an alternative powering source. Incorporating the spin-down of a magnetized neutron star adequately describes the lightcurve and we estimate a small ejecta mass of M ej = 0.10 ± 0.05 M ⊙. Our spectral modeling suggests the ejecta is composed of intermediate mass elements including O, Si, and Mg and trace amounts of Fe-peak elements, which disfavors a binary neutron star merger. We discuss three explosion scenarios for SN2018kzr, given the low ejecta mass, intermediate mass element composition, and high likelihood of additional powering—the core collapse of an ultra-stripped progenitor, the accretion induced collapse (AIC) of a white dwarf, and the merger of a white dwarf and neutron star. The requirement for an alternative input energy source favors either the AIC with magnetar powering or a white dwarf–neutron star merger with energy from disk wind shocks.

Journal Article
TL;DR: The next generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes as mentioned in this paper, which will reveal the fundamental properties of black holes, uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes.
Abstract: Next-generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes. Primary science goals include: Discover binary black holes throughout the observable Universe; Reveal the fundamental properties of black holes; Uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the observed sample can be split into three distinct sub-populations based on their orbital characteristics: (i) low-eccentricity binaries; (ii) wide binaries; and (iii) short-period, high eccentricities binaries.
Abstract: In the past five years, the number of known double neutron stars (DNS) in the Milky Way has roughly doubled. We argue that the observed sample can be split into three distinct sub-populations based on their orbital characteristics: (i) short-period, low-eccentricity binaries; (ii) wide binaries; and (iii) short-period, high-eccentricity binaries. These sub-populations also exhibit distinct spin period and spindown rate properties. We focus on sub-population (iii), which contains the Hulse-Taylor binary. Contrary to previous analysis, we demonstrate that, if they are the product of primordial binary evolution, the $P_{\rm orb}$ and $e$ distribution of these systems requires that the second-born NSs must have been formed with small natal kicks ($\lesssim$25 km s$^{-1}$) and have pre-SN masses narrowly distributed around 3.2 M$_{\odot}$. These constraints challenge binary evolution theory and further predict closely aligned spin and orbital axes, inconsistent with the Hulse-Taylor binary's measured spin-orbit misalignment angle of $\approx$20$^{\circ}$. Motivated by the similarity of these DNSs to B2127+11C, a DNS residing in the globular cluster M15, we argue that this sub-population is consistent with being formed in, and then ejected from, globular clusters. This scenario provides a pathway for the formation and merger of DNSs in stellar environments without recent star formation, as observed in the host galaxy population of short gamma ray bursts and the recent detection by LIGO of a merging DNS in an old stellar population.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use hydrodynamic models of binary coalescence to model the common envelope density distribution at the time of coalescence and find toroidal profiles of material, concentrated in the binary's equatorial plane and extending to many times the massive star's original radius.
Abstract: We model explosions driven by the coalescence of a black hole or neutron star with the core of its massive-star companion. Upon entering a common envelope phase, a compact object may spiral all the way to the core. The concurrent release of energy is likely to be deposited into the surrounding common envelope, powering a merger-driven explosion. We use hydrodynamic models of binary coalescence to model the common envelope density distribution at the time of coalescence. We find toroidal profiles of material, concentrated in the binary's equatorial plane and extending to many times the massive star's original radius. We use the spherically-averaged properties of this circumstellar material (CSM) to estimate the emergent light curves that result from the interaction between the blast wave and the CSM. We find that typical merger-driven explosions are brightened by up to three magnitudes by CSM interaction. From population synthesis models we discover that the brightest merger-driven explosions, $M_V \sim -18$ to $-19$, are those involving black holes because they have the most massive and extended CSM. Black hole coalescence events are also common; they represent about 50% of all merger-driven explosions and approximately 0.3% of the core-collapse rate. Merger-driven explosions offer a window into the highly-uncertain physics of common envelope interactions in binary systems by probing the properties of systems that merge rather than eject their envelopes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the formation of coalescing binary black holes via the evolution of isolated field binaries that go through the common envelope phase in order to obtain the combined distributions of the main observables of Advanced LIGO was studied.
Abstract: We study the formation of coalescing binary black holes via the evolution of isolated field binaries that go through the common envelope phase in order to obtain the combined distributions of the main observables of Advanced LIGO. We used a hybrid technique that combines the parametric binary population synthesis code COMPAS with detailed binary evolution simulations performed with the MESA code. We then convolved our binary evolution calculations with the redshift- and metallicity-dependent star-formation rate and the selection effects of gravitational-wave detectors to obtain predictions of observable properties. By assuming efficient angular momentum transport, we are able to present a model that is capable of simultaneously predicting the three main gravitational-wave observables: the effective inspiral spin parameter $\chi_{eff}$, the chirp mass $M_{chirp}$, and the cosmological redshift of merger $z_{merger}$. We find an excellent agreement between our model and the ten events from the first two advanced detector observing runs. We make predictions for the third observing run O3 and for Advanced LIGO design sensitivity. We expect around 80% of events with $\chi_{eff} < 0.1$, while the remaining 20% of events with $\chi_{eff} \ge 0.1$ are split into ~10% with $M_{chirp} < 15$ M$_\odot$ and ~10% with $M_{chirp} \ge 15$ M$_\odot$. In conclusion, the favorable comparison of the existing LIGO/Virgo observations with our model predictions gives support to the idea that the majority, if not all of the observed mergers, originate from the evolution of isolated binaries. The first-born black hole has negligible spin because it lost its envelope after it expanded to become a giant star, while the spin of the second-born black hole is determined by the tidal spin up of its naked helium star progenitor by the first-born black hole companion after the binary finished the common-envelope phase.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of varying the binary mass ratio, stellar structure, equation of state, relative Mach number of the object's motion through the gas, and density gradients across the gravitational focusing scale are studied.
Abstract: We present three-dimensional local hydrodynamic simulations of flows around objects embedded within stellar envelopes using a "wind tunnel" formalism. Our simulations model the common envelope dynamical inspiral phase in binary star systems in terms of dimensionless flow characteristics. We present suites of simulations that study the effects of varying the binary mass ratio, stellar structure, equation of state, relative Mach number of the object's motion through the gas, and density gradients across the gravitational focusing scale. For each model, we measure coefficients of accretion and drag experienced by the embedded object. These coefficients regulate the coupled evolution of the object's masses and orbital tightening during the dynamical inspiral phase of the common envelope. We extrapolate our simulation results to accreting black holes with masses comparable to that of the population of LIGO black holes. We demonstrate that the mass and spin accrued by these black holes per unit orbital tightening are directly related to the ratio of accretion to drag coefficients. We thus infer that the mass and dimensionless spin of initially non-rotating black holes change by of order $1\%$ and 0.05, respectively, in a typical example scenario. Our prediction that the masses and spins of black holes remain largely unmodified by a common envelope phase aids in the interpretation of the properties of the growing observed population of merging binary black holes. Even if these black holes passed through a common envelope phase during their assembly, features of mass and spin imparted by previous evolutionary epochs should be preserved.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors apply Gaussian mixture model clustering to 1000 simulated gravitational-wave compact binary sources from a mixture of five sub-populations, and determine how many binary detections are needed to accurately determine the number of subpopulations and their mass and spin distributions.
Abstract: The mass and spin distributions of compact binary gravitational-wave sources are currently uncertain due to complicated astrophysics involved in their formation. Multiple sub-populations of compact binaries representing different evolutionary scenarios may be present among sources detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. In addition to hierarchical modelling, unmodelled methods can aid in determining the number of sub-populations and their properties. In this paper, we apply Gaussian mixture model clustering to 1000 simulated gravitational-wave compact binary sources from a mixture of five sub-populations. Using both mass and spin as input parameters, we determine how many binary detections are needed to accurately determine the number of sub-populations and their mass and spin distributions. In the most difficult case that we consider, where two sub-populations have identical mass distributions but differ in their spin, which is poorly constrained by gravitational-wave detections, we find that ~ 400 detections are needed before we can identify the correct number of sub-populations.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A new mathematical approach called OPTiMAL (Optimised Palaeothermometry from Tetraethers via MAchine Learning) is developed to improve temperature estimation and the representation of uncertainty based on the relationship between ancient GDGT assemblage data and the structure of the modern calibration data set.
Abstract: . In the modern oceans, the relative abundances of Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGTs) compounds produced by marine archaeal communities show a significant dependence on the local sea surface temperature at the site of formation. When preserved in ancient marine sediments, the measured abundances of these fossil lipid biomarkers thus have the potential to provide a geological record of long-term variability in planetary surface temperatures. Several empirical calibrations have been made between observed GDGT relative abundances in late Holocene core top sediments and modern upper ocean temperatures. These calibrations form the basis of the widely used TEX86 palaeothermometer. There are, however, two outstanding problems with this approach, first the appropriate assignment of uncertainty to estimates of ancient sea surface temperatures based on the relationship of the ancient GDGT assemblage to the modern calibration data set; and second, the problem of making temperature estimates beyond the range of the modern empirical calibrations (> 30 oC). Here we apply modern machine-learning tools, including Gaussian Process Emulators and forward modelling, to develop a new mathematical approach we call OPTiMAL (Optimised Palaeothermometry from Tetraethers via MAchine Learning) to improve temperature estimation and the representation of uncertainty based on the relationship between ancient GDGT assemblage data and the structure of the modern calibration data set. We reduce the root mean square uncertainty on temperature predictions (validated using the modern data set) from ~ ±6 oC using TEX86 based estimators to ±3.6 oC using Gaussian Process estimators for temperatures below 30 oC. We also provide a new but simple quantitative measure of the distance between an ancient GDGT assemblage and the nearest neighbour within the modern calibration dataset, as a test for significant non-analogue behaviour. Finally, we advocate against the use of temperature estimates beyond the range of the modern empirical calibration dataset, given the absence – to date – of a robust predictive biological model or extensive and reproducible mesocosm experimental data in this elevated temperature range.

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, a 3D general relativistic smoothed particle hydrodynamics (GRSPH) simulation of tidal disruption events involving 1 $M_\odot$ stars and rotating supermassive black holes was performed.
Abstract: We perform 3D general relativistic smoothed particle hydrodynamics (GRSPH) simulations of tidal disruption events involving 1 $M_\odot$ stars and $10^6 M_\odot$ rotating supermassive black holes. We consider stars on initially elliptical orbits both in, and inclined to, the black hole equatorial plane. We confirm that stream-stream collisions caused by relativistic apsidal precession rapidly circularise the disrupted material into a disc. For inclined trajectories we find that nodal precession induced by the black hole spin (i.e. Lense-Thirring precession) inhibits stream-stream collisions only in the first orbit, merely causing a short delay in forming a disc, which is inclined to the black hole equatorial plane. We also investigate the effect of radiative cooling on the remnant disc structure. We find that with no cooling a thick, extended, slowly precessing torus is formed, with a radial extent of 5 au (for orbits with a high penetration factor). Radiatively efficient cooling produces a narrow, rapidly precessing ring close to pericentre. We plot the energy dissipation rate, which tracks the pancake shock, stream-stream collisions and viscosity. We compare this to the effective luminosity due to accretion onto the black hole. We find energy dissipation rates of $\sim10^{45}$ erg s$^{-1}$ for stars disrupted at the tidal radius, and up to $\sim10^{47}$ erg s$^{-1}$ for deep encounters.

Posted Content
TL;DR: The next generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes as discussed by the authors, which will reveal the fundamental properties of black holes, uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes.
Abstract: Next-generation observations will revolutionize our understanding of binary black holes and will detect new sources, such as intermediate-mass black holes. Primary science goals include: Discover binary black holes throughout the observable Universe; Reveal the fundamental properties of black holes; Uncover the seeds of supermassive black holes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine a scenario in which massive stars merge after they have both formed a hydrogen-exhausted core and suggest this could produce stars which explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) with significantly more hydrogen, at a given metallicity, than in single-star models with the same pre-explosion oxygen-rich core mass.
Abstract: Interactions between massive stars in binaries are thought to be responsible for much of the observed diversity of supernovae. As surveys probe rarer populations of events, we should expect to see supernovae arising from increasingly uncommon progenitor channels. Here we examine a scenario in which massive stars merge after they have both formed a hydrogen-exhausted core. We suggest this could produce stars which explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) with significantly more hydrogen, at a given metallicity, than in single-star models with the same pre-explosion oxygen-rich core mass. We investigate the subset of those stellar mergers which later produce pulsational PISNe, and estimate that the rate of such post-merger, hydrogen-rich pulsational PISNe could approach a few in a thousand of all core-collapse supernovae. The nature and predicted rate of such hydrogen-rich pulsational PISNe are reminiscent of the very unusual supernova iPTF14hls. For plausible assumptions, PISNe from similar mergers might dominate the rate of PISNe in the local Universe.

Posted Content
TL;DR: The first detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The past four years have seen a scientific revolution through the birth of a new field: gravitational-wave astronomy. The first detection of gravitational waves---recognised by the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics---provided unprecedented tests of general relativity while unveiling a previously unknown class of massive black holes, thirty times more massive than the Sun. The subsequent detection of gravitational waves from a merging binary neutron star confirmed the hypothesised connection between binary neutron stars and short gamma-ray bursts while providing an independent measurement of the expansion of the Universe. The discovery enabled precision measurement of the speed of gravity while shedding light on the origin of heavy elements. At the time of writing, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and its European partner, Virgo, have published the detection of eleven gravitational-wave events. New, not-yet-published detections are announced on a nearly weekly basis. This fast-growing catalogue of gravitational-wave transients is expected to yield insights into a number of topics, from the equation of state of matter at supra-nuclear densities to the fate of massive stars. The science potential of 3G observatories is enormous, enabling measurements of gravitational waves from the edge of the Universe and precise determination of the neutron star equation of state. Australia is well-positioned to help develop the required technology. The Mid-term Review for the Decadal plan for Australian astronomy 2016-2025 should consider investment in a scoping study for an Australian Gravitational-Wave Pathfinder that develops and validates core technologies required for the global 3G detector network.

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R. J. Foley1, Kate D. Alexander2, Igor Andreoni3, Iair Arcavi, Katie Auchettl, Jennifer Barnes, Gordon Baym4, Eric C. Bellm, A. M. Beloborodov, N. Blagorodnova, John P. Blakeslee, Patrick Brady5, Marica Branchesi, J. S. Brown1, Nathaniel R. Butler, Matteo Cantiello, Ryan Chornock, David O. Cook3, Jeff Cooke, Deanne L. Coppejans2, A. Corsi6, Sean M. Couch7, M. W. Coughlin3, David A. Coulter1, Philip S. Cowperthwaite, Tim Dietrich, Georgios Dimitriadis1, Maria R. Drout, J. Elias, Ben Farr, R. Fernandez, Alexei V. Filippenko8, Wen-fai Fong2, Tassos Fragos, Dale A. Frail, Wendy L. Freedman, Chris L. Fryer9, V. Z. Golkhou, Daichi Hiramatsu10, Jens Hjorth11, Assaf Horesh12, Griffin Hosseinzadeh, Kenta Hotokezaka, Dale Andrew Howell10, T. Hung1, D. O. Jones1, Vicky Kalogera2, Dan Kasen8, Wolfgang Kerzendorf13, Charles D. Kilpatrick1, Robert P. Kirshner, Kevin Krisciunas14, James M. Lattimer, Davide Lazzati, Andrew J. Levan, Andrew MacFadyen13, K. Maeda, Ilya Mandel, Kaisey S. Mandel, Ben Margalit8, Raffaella Margutti2, J. McIver3, Brian D. Metzger, Kunal Mooley3, Takashi J. Moriya, Ariadna Murguia-Berthier1, Gautham Narayan15, Matt Nicholl, Samaya Nissanke, Ken'ichi Nomoto, John M. O'Meara, Richard O'Shaughnessy16, Evan O'Connor16, Antonella Palmese17, Yen-Chen Pan, Chris Pankow2, Kerry Paterson2, Daniel A. Perley18, Rosalba Perna18, Anthony L. Piro, T. A. Pritchard13, Eliot Quataert8, David Radice8, Enrico Ramirez-Ruiz1, Sanjay Reddy, Armin Rest15, Adam G. Riess19, Carl L. Rodriguez20, César Rojas-Bravo1, E. Rossi1, Stephan Rosswog, Maria Teresa Ruiz4, Stuart L. Shapiro4, David H. Shoemaker20, Matthew R. Siebert1, Daniel M. Siegel1, K. Siellez1, N. Smith1, Marcelle Soares-Santos21, Nicholas B. Suntzeff14, Rebecca Surman14, M. Tanaka, Nial R. Tanvir, Giacomo Terreran2, Stefano Valenti22, V. A. Villar22, Lian-Tao Wang14, Sara Webb, John C Wheeler23, Peter Williams24, Stanford E Woosley1, Matias Zaldarriaga25, Michael Zevin2 
TL;DR: In this article, the authors outline some of the most exciting scientific questions that can be answered by combining both gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations, including new classes of events such as neutron-star-black-hole mergers, corecollapse supernovae, and almost certainly something completely unexpected.
Abstract: As of today, we have directly detected exactly one source in both gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation, the binary neutron star merger GW170817, its associated gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, and the subsequent kilonova SSS17a/AT 2017gfo. Within ten years, we will detect hundreds of events, including new classes of events such as neutron-star-black-hole mergers, core-collapse supernovae, and almost certainly something completely unexpected. As we build this sample, we will explore exotic astrophysical topics ranging from nucleosynthesis, stellar evolution, general relativity, high-energy astrophysics, nuclear matter, to cosmology. The discovery potential is extraordinary, and investments in this area will yield major scientific breakthroughs. Here we outline some of the most exciting scientific questions that can be answered by combining GW and EM observations.

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TL;DR: In this article, the authors make the case for the early development of a mid frequency band (MFB) observatory in geosynchronous orbit (73,000 km arm), optimized for the frequency band 10 mHz to 1 Hz.
Abstract: We make the case for the early development of a Mid-Frequency-Band (MFB) gravitational wave (GW) observatory in geosynchronous orbit (73,000 km arm), optimized for the frequency band 10 mHz to 1 Hz. MFB bridges the science acquisition frequencies between the ground observatories LIGO/VIRGO (4/3 km arm - as well as future planned ones 10/40 km arm), and the milli-hertz band of LISA (2.5 Gm arm)- with usable sensitivity extending to 10 Hz. We argue that this band will enable the timely development of this game-changing field of astrophysics, with observations of medium mass Binary Black Holes (BBH) and Binary Neutron Stars (BNS) sources prior to their mergers in the LIGO frequency range as well as Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRI)s and mergers of supermassive BBH within the main detection band. MFB is better placed than LISA to access this exciting frequency region.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a set of astrophysically motivated metrics to evaluate the performance of the third-generation laser interferometers in existing km-scale facilities were proposed. And the impact of detector design choices against these metrics, providing a quantitative cost-benefit analyses of the resulting scientific payoffs.
Abstract: The second generation of gravitational-wave detectors are being built and tuned all over the world. The detection of signals from binary black holes is beginning to fulfill the promise of gravitational-wave astronomy. In this work, we examine several possible configurations for third-generation laser interferometers in existing km-scale facilities. We propose a set of astrophysically motivated metrics to evaluate detector performance. We measure the impact of detector design choices against these metrics, providing a quantitative cost-benefit analyses of the resulting scientific payoffs.