Paul-Arthur Monerie

TL;DR: In this article, a two-stage post-processing technique was used to adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of a predictable signal.

TL;DR: In this paper, the accuracy of AM simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the "one model one vote" concept.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the time evolution of air temperature and heat waves occurrences over Northern Africa for the period 1979-2011 and found that a significant warming (1°-3°C), appearing by the mid-1960s over Sahara and Sahel, is associated with higher/lesser frequency of warm/cold temperatures, as with longer duration and higher occurrences of heat waves.

TL;DR: The authors analyzed sources of inter-model spread in Sahel precipitation change by decomposing precipitation into its dynamic and thermodynamic terms, using a large set of climate model simulations and found that model uncertainty is mostly related to the response of the atmospheric circulation to climate change (dynamic changes), while thermodynamic changes are less uncertain among climate models.

TL;DR: The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability, its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO2 and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO2; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems,