Roberto Bilbao

TL;DR: In this article, a two-stage post-processing technique was used to adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of a predictable signal.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea-level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the observed pattern will remain stable in future decades.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined whether significant changes in ocean temperatures can be detected in recent decades and if so whether they can be attributed to anthropogenic or natural factors, and they compared ocean temperature changes for 1960-2005 in four observational datasets and in historical simulations by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years, with virtually no chance of the 5-year mean being above the threshold.