Showing papers by "Paul J. Valdes published in 2020"

Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction

Abstract: The Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, 66 Ma, included the demise of non-avian dinosaurs. Intense debate has focused on the relative roles of Deccan volcanism and the Chicxulub asteroid impact as kill mechanisms for this event. Here, we combine fossil-occurrence data with paleoclimate and habitat suitability models to evaluate dinosaur habitability in the wake of various asteroid impact and Deccan volcanism scenarios. Asteroid impact models generate a prolonged cold winter that suppresses potential global dinosaur habitats. Conversely, long-term forcing from Deccan volcanism (carbon dioxide [CO2]-induced warming) leads to increased habitat suitability. Short-term (aerosol cooling) volcanism still allows equatorial habitability. These results support the asteroid impact as the main driver of the non-avian dinosaur extinction. By contrast, induced warming from volcanism mitigated the most extreme effects of asteroid impact, potentially reducing the extinction severity.

A Middle Eocene lowland humid subtropical "Shangri-La" ecosystem in central Tibet.

Abstract: Tibet's ancient topography and its role in climatic and biotic evolution remain speculative due to a paucity of quantitative surface-height measurements through time and space, and sparse fossil records. However, newly discovered fossils from a present elevation of ∼4,850 m in central Tibet improve substantially our knowledge of the ancient Tibetan environment. The 70 plant fossil taxa so far recovered include the first occurrences of several modern Asian lineages and represent a Middle Eocene (∼47 Mya) humid subtropical ecosystem. The fossils not only record the diverse composition of the ancient Tibetan biota, but also allow us to constrain the Middle Eocene land surface height in central Tibet to ∼1,500 ± 900 m, and quantify the prevailing thermal and hydrological regime. This "Shangri-La"-like ecosystem experienced monsoon seasonality with a mean annual temperature of ∼19 °C, and frosts were rare. It contained few Gondwanan taxa, yet was compositionally similar to contemporaneous floras in both North America and Europe. Our discovery quantifies a key part of Tibetan Paleogene topography and climate, and highlights the importance of Tibet in regard to the origin of modern Asian plant species and the evolution of global biodiversity.

Global vegetation patterns of the past 140,000 years.

Abstract: Aim: Insight into global biome responses to climatic and other environmental changes is essential to address key questions about past and future impacts of such changes. By simulating global biome patterns 140 ka to present, we aimed to address important questions about biome changes during this interval. Location: Global. Taxon Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ‐GUESS dynamic global vegetation model, we made 89 simulations driven using ice‐core atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Earth's obliquity, and outputs from a pre‐industrial and 88 palaeoclimate experiments run using HadCM3. Experiments were run for 81 time slices between 1 and 140 ka, seven ‘hosing’ experiments also being run, using a 1‐Sv freshwater flux to the North Atlantic, for time slices corresponding to Heinrich Events H0–H6. Using a rule‐based approach, based on carbon mass and leaf area index of the LPJ‐GUESS plant functional types, the biome was inferred for each grid cell. Biomes were mapped, and the extent and total vegetation biomass of each biome, and total global vegetation biomass, estimated. Results: Substantial changes in biome extents and locations were found on all vegetated continents. Although the largest magnitude changes were in Eurasia, important changes were seen in tropical latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere. Total global extent of most biomes varied on multi‐millennial (orbital) time scales, although some (e.g. Tropical Raingreen Forest) responded principally to the c. 100‐kyr glacial–interglacial cycle and others (e.g. Temperate Broad‐leaved Evergreen Forest) mainly to the c. 20‐kyr precession cycle. Many also responded to millennial contrasts between stadial (‘hosing’) and interstadial climates, with some (e.g. Tropical Evergreen Forest) showing stronger responses than to the multi‐millennial changes. Main conclusions: No two time slices had identical biome patterns. Even equivalent Holocene and last interglacial time slices, and the last and penultimate glacial maxima, showed important differences. Only a small proportion of global land area experienced no biome change since 140 ka; many places experienced multiple biome changes. These modelling experiments provided little evidence for long‐term biome stability.

Wind‐Driven Evolution of the North Pacific Subpolar Gyre Over the Last Deglaciation

Abstract: North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulations are key missing pieces in our understanding of the reorganization of the global climate system since the Last Glacial Maximum. Here, using a basin‐wide compilation of planktic foraminiferal δ18O, we show that the North Pacific subpolar gyre extended ~3° further south during the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with sea surface temperature and productivity proxy data. Climate models indicate that the expansion of the subpolar gyre was associated with a substantial gyre strengthening, and that these gyre circulation changes were driven by a southward shift of the midlatitude westerlies and increased wind stress from the polar easterlies. Using single‐forcing model runs, we show that these atmospheric circulation changes are a nonlinear response to ice sheet topography/albedo and CO2. Our reconstruction indicates that the gyre boundary (and thus westerly winds) began to migrate northward at ~16.5 ka, driving changes in ocean heat transport, biogeochemistry, and North American hydroclimate.

Extinction intensity during Ordovician and Cenozoic glaciations explained by cooling and palaeogeography

Abstract: A striking feature of the marine fossil record is the variable intensity of extinction during superficially similar climate transitions. Here we combine climate models and species trait simulations to explore the degree to which differing palaeogeographic boundary conditions and differing magnitudes of cooling and glaciation can explain the relative intensity of marine extinction during greenhouse–icehouse transitions in the Late Ordovician and the Cenozoic. Simulations modelled the response of virtual species to cooling climate using a spatially explicit cellular automaton algorithm. We find that palaeogeography alone may be a contributing factor, as identical changes in meridional sea surface temperature gradients caused greater extinction in Late Ordovician simulations than in Cenozoic simulations. Differences in extinction from palaeogeography are significant, but by themselves are insufficient to explain observed differences in extinction intensity. However, when simulations included inferred changes in continental flooding and interval-specific models of sea surface temperature, predicted differences in relative extinction intensity were more consistent with observations from the fossil record. Our results support the hypothesis that intense extinction in the Late Ordovician is partially attributable to exceptionally rapid and severe cooling compared to Cenozoic events. High extinction intensity during Late Ordovician but not Cenozoic transitions to glacial conditions can be attributed to both temperature and palaeogeography, according to analysis combining climate models and simulations of virtual species.

CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data

Abstract: . Palaeoclimate model simulations are an important tool to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change. These simulations also provide tests of the ability of models to simulate climates very different to today. Here we present the results from two brand-new simulations using the latest version of the UK's physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC3.1; they are the mid-Holocene ( ∼6 ka) and Last Interglacial ( ∼127 ka) simulations, both conducted under the auspices of CMIP6/PMIP4. This is the first time this version of the UK model has been used to conduct palaeoclimate simulations. These periods are of particular interest to PMIP4 because they represent the two most recent warm periods in Earth history, where atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and continental configuration are similar to the pre-industrial period but where there were significant changes to the Earth's orbital configuration, resulting in a very different seasonal cycle of radiative forcing. Results for these simulations are assessed firstly against the same model's pre-industrial control simulation (a simulation comparison, to describe and understand the differences between the pre-industrial – PI – and the two palaeo simulations) and secondly against previous versions of the same model relative to newly available proxy data (a model–data comparison, to compare all available simulations from the same model with proxy data to assess any improvements due to model advances). The introduction of this newly available proxy data adds further novelty to this study. Globally, for metrics such as 1.5 m temperature and surface rainfall, whilst both the recent palaeoclimate simulations are mostly capturing the expected sign and, in some places, magnitude of change relative to the pre-industrial, this is geographically and seasonally dependent. Compared to newly available proxy data (including sea surface temperature – SST – and rainfall) and also incorporating data from previous versions of the model shows that the relative accuracy of the simulations appears to vary according to metric, proxy reconstruction used for comparison and geographical location. In some instances, such as mean rainfall in the mid-Holocene, there is a clear and linear improvement, relative to proxy data, from the oldest to the newest generation of the model. When zooming into northern Africa, a region known to be problematic for models in terms of rainfall enhancement, the behaviour of the West African monsoon in both recent palaeoclimate simulations is consistent with current understanding, suggesting a wetter monsoon during the mid-Holocene and (more so) the Last Interglacial, relative to the pre-industrial era. However, regarding the well-documented “Saharan greening” during the mid-Holocene, results here suggest that the most recent version of the UK's physical model is still unable to reproduce the increases suggested by proxy data, consistent with all other previous models to date.

Changes in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition: a model-data comparison

Abstract: . The global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth's oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of 10 ocean and 4 land-surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully coupled, low-resolution climate model simulations from two models (HadCM3BL and FOAM). Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. While certain climate model simulations show moderate–good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data before and after the EOT, in general the model simulations do not capture the absolute latitudinal temperature gradient shown by the data, being too cold, particularly at high latitudes. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support for previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to the opening of the Drake Passage.

New insights into the thermal regime and hydrodynamics of the early Late Cretaceous Arctic

Abstract: The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else of comparable size on Earth, impacting global climate feedbacks and the Arctic biota. However, a warm Arctic is not novel. The Late Cretaceous fossil record of the region enables a detailed reconstruction of polar environmental conditions, and a thriving extinct ecosystem, during a previous 'hothouse’ global climate. Using leaf form (physiognomy) and tree ring characteristics we reconstruct Cenomanian to Coniacian polar thermal and hydrological regimes over an average annual cycle at eight locations in NE Russia and northern Alaska. A new high spatial resolution (∼1 km) WorldClim2 calibration of the Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) yields results similar to, but often slightly warmer than, previous analyses, but also provides more detailed insights into the hydrological regime through the return of annual and seasonal vapour pressure deficit (VPD), potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates and soil moisture, as well as new thermal overviews through measures of thermicity and growing degree days. The new results confirm the overall warmth of the region, particularly close to the Arctic Ocean, but reveal strong local differences that may be related to palaeoelevation in the Okhotsk–Chukotka Volcanogenic Belt in NE Russia. While rainfall estimates have large uncertainties due to year-round wet soils in most locations, new measures of VPD and PET show persistent high humidity, but with notably drier summers at all the Arctic sites.

Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing

Abstract: Warm periods in Earth's history offer opportunities to understand the dynamics of the Earth system under conditions that are similar to those expected in the near future. The Middle Pliocene warm period (MPWP), from 3.3 to 3.0 My B.P, is the most recent time when atmospheric CO2 levels were as high as today. However, climate model simulations of the Pliocene underestimate high-latitude warming that has been reconstructed from fossil pollen samples and other geological archives. One possible reason for this is that enhanced non-CO2 trace gas radiative forcing during the Pliocene, including from methane (CH4), has not been included in modeling. We use a suite of terrestrial biogeochemistry models forced with MPWP climate model simulations from four different climate models to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the MPWP CH4 cycle, including uncertainty. We simulate an atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio of 1,000 to 1,200 ppbv, which in combination with estimates of radiative forcing from N2O and O3, contributes a non-CO2 radiative forcing of 0.9 [Formula: see text] (range 0.6 to 1.1), which is 43% (range 36 to 56%) of the CO2 radiative forcing used in MPWP climate simulations. This additional forcing would cause a global surface temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.0 °C, with amplified changes at high latitudes, improving agreement with geological evidence of Middle Pliocene climate. We conclude that natural trace gas feedbacks are critical for interpreting climate warmth during the Pliocene and potentially many other warm phases of the Cenezoic. These results also imply that using Pliocene CO2 and temperature reconstructions alone may lead to overestimates of the fast or Charney climate sensitivity.

Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial-interglacial climate change.

Abstract: Abiotic niche lability reduces extinction risk by allowing species to adapt to changing environmental conditions in situ. In contrast, species with static niches must keep pace with the velocity of climate change as they track suitable habitat. The rate and frequency of niche lability have been studied on human timescales (months to decades) and geological timescales (millions of years), but lability on intermediate timescales (millennia) remains largely uninvestigated. Here, we quantified abiotic niche lability at 8-ka resolution across the last 700 ka of glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations, using the exceptionally well-known fossil record of planktonic foraminifera coupled with Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model reconstructions of paleoclimate. We tracked foraminiferal niches through time along the univariate axis of mean annual temperature, measured both at the sea surface and at species' depth habitats. Species' temperature preferences were uncoupled from the global temperature regime, undermining a hypothesis of local adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific niches were equally similar through time, regardless of climate change magnitude on short timescales (8 ka) and across contrasts of glacial and interglacial extremes. Evolutionary trait models fitted to time series of occupied temperature values supported widespread niche stasis above randomly wandering or directional change. Ecotype explained little variation in species-level differences in niche lability after accounting for evolutionary relatedness. Together, these results suggest that warming and ocean acidification over the next hundreds to thousands of years could redistribute and reduce populations of foraminifera and other calcifying plankton, which are primary components of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Sea ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes: last interglacial HadCM3 simulations

Abstract: . Changes in the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) affect global sea level. Greenland stable water isotope (δ18O) records from ice cores offer information on past changes in the surface of the GIS. Here, we use the isotope-enabled HadCM3 climate model to simulate a set of Last Interglacial (LIG) idealised GIS surface elevation change scenarios focusing on GIS ice core sites. We investigate how δ18O depends on the magnitude and sign of GIS elevation change and evaluate how the response is altered by sea ice changes. We find that modifying GIS elevation induces changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, sea ice and precipitation patterns. These climate feedbacks lead to ice core-averaged isotopic lapse rates of 0.49 ‰ per 100 m for the lowered GIS states and 0.29 ‰ per 100 m for the enlarged GIS states. This is lower than the spatially derived Greenland lapse rates of 0.62–0.72 ‰ per 100 m. These results thus suggest non-linearities in the isotope-elevation relationship, and have consequences for the interpretation of past elevation and climate changes across Greenland. In particular, our results suggest that winter sea ice changes may significantly influence isotopic-elevation gradients: winter sea ice effect can decrease (increase) modelled core-averaged isotopic lapse rate values by about -19 % (and +28 %) for the lowered (enlarged) GIS states respectively. The largest influence of sea ice on δ18O changes is found in coastal regions like the Camp Century site.

The UK contribution to CMIP6/PMIP4: mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial experiments with HadGEM3, and comparison to the pre-industrial era and proxy data

Abstract: . Palaeoclimate model simulations are an important tool to improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change. These simulations also provide tests of the ability of models to simulate climates very different to today. Here we present the results from two simulations using the latest version of the UK’s physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC3.1; the mid-Holocene (~ 6 ka) and Last Interglacial (~ 127 ka) simulations, both conducted under the auspices of CMIP6/PMIP4. These periods are of particular interest to PMIP4 because they represent the two most recent warm periods in Earth history, where atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and continental configuration is similar to the pre-industrial period but where there were significant changes to the Earth’s orbital configuration, resulting in a very different seasonal cycle of radiative forcing. Results for these simulations are assessed against proxy data, previous versions of the UK model, and models from the previous CMIP5 exercise. When the current version is compared to the previous generation of the UK model, the most recent version suggests limited improvement. In common with these previous model versions, the simulations reproduce global land and ocean temperatures (both surface and at 1.5 m) and a West African monsoon that is consistent with the latitudinal and seasonal distribution of insolation. The Last Interglacial simulation appears to accurately capture Northern Hemisphere temperature changes, but without the addition of Last Interglacial meltwater forcing cannot capture the magnitude of Southern Hemisphere changes. Model-data comparisons indicate that some geographical regions, and some seasons, produce better matches to the palaeodata (relative to pre-industrial) than others. Model-model comparisons, relative to previous generations same model and other models, indicate similarity between generations in terms of both the intensity and northward enhancement of the mid-Holocene West African monsoon, both of which are underestimated. On the Saharan greening which occurred the mid-Holocene African Humid Period, simulation results are likewise consistent with other models. The most recent version of the UK model appears to still be unable to reproduce the amount of rainfall necessary to support grassland across the Sahara.

A Workflow to Address Uncertainties in Frontier Areas and Underexplored Basins by Integrating Palaeo-Environmental and Depositional Models with Stratigraphic Forward Modelling: A Case Study for the Shu'aiba Formation

Abstract: A new workflow is being developed to improve predictivity of geological models in frontier areas with limited data. In underexplored basins, thicknesses and facies distribution, and resulting reservoir presence, are difficult to estimate, often relying on analogues and conceptual depositional models. To overcome this, we propose combining global palaeo-geographic maps and palaeo-Earth system models (PESM) with stratigraphic forward modelling (SFM). The result is an accelerated process for assessing reservoir presence at a regional scale. Palaeo-environmental information is derived from various sources. A plate kinematics deformable plate model underpins global palaeo-digital elevation models (DEM) and these define palaeo-drainage. DEM were coupled with PESM (UK Met Office HadCM3 GCM) and palaeo-tidal models (Imperial College, UK, ICOM) to provide quantitative global data such as oceanic currents and wind patterns. The data derived from these models can be fed as input parameters into a stratigraphic forward model. The geological process incorporated in the SFM can be tailored to fit the study's objective, regional framework and geological units of interest. The resulting models can be used to extract reservoir thickness estimates or probability of occurrence of particular facies through multiple realisations in order to assess risks associated with reservoir presence in the area. To showcase this approach, the depositional system of the Rub Al Khali basin during the Aptian (Shu'aiba Formation) is investigated. The low-angle carbonate ramp developed through the Berremian is replaced by a flat-topped platform with intra-platform basins (such as the Bab) exhibiting progradational clinoforms towards the basin edges. For this exercise, we identified strata dominated by bionconstructed sediment (deposited in high energy, shallow settings) as potential reservoir units. The Shu'aiba SFM sits on the global palaeo-environmental data, either by funnelling it as input parameters, or using it as calibration data. The PESM outputs, such as wind patterns controlling wave action, provide valuable, time-saving constrains when setting up key model parameters affecting carbonate deposition. The model shows that modelling wave action and its effect on carbonate growth and transport is important for replicating the facies distribution observed in palaeo-environmental maps. Uncertainty analysis of different modelled processes and controls is used to assess the model robustness. For example, the interplay between subsidence and carbonate production as the main controlling parameters for mean thickness and volume of potential reservoir units can be quantified. The use of a global palaeo-environmental database is key to speed up the model setup and validation. The continuous characterization of depositional features achieved in this type of 4D model allows a better understanding of the evolution of an area and implications on reservoir distribution. The model outputs can be used to improve exploration workflows, with the creation of confidence or presence risk maps for selected depositional features.