Showing papers in "Ecological Applications in 2011"

Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria.

Abstract: Maxent, one of the most commonly used methods for inferring species distributions and environmental tolerances from occurrence data, allows users to fit models of arbitrary complexity. Model complexity is typically constrained via a process known as L1 regularization, but at present little guidance is available for setting the appropriate level of regularization, and the effects of inappropriately complex or simple models are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate the use of information criterion approaches to setting regularization in Maxent, and we compare models selected using information criteria to models selected using other criteria that are common in the literature. We evaluate model performance using occurrence data generated from a known "true" initial Maxent model, using several different metrics for model quality and transferability. We demonstrate that models that are inappropriately complex or inappropriately simple show reduced ability to infer habitat quality, reduced ability to infer the relative importance of variables in constraining species' distributions, and reduced transferability to other time periods. We also demonstrate that information criteria may offer significant advantages over the methods commonly used in the literature.

Does plant diversity benefit agroecosystems? A synthetic review

Abstract: Predictive theory on how plant diversity promotes herbivore suppression through movement patterns, host associations, and predation promises a potential alternative to pesticide-intensive monoculture crop production We used meta-analysis on 552 experiments in 45 articles published over the last 10 years to test if plant diversification schemes reduce herbivores and/or increase the natural enemies of herbivores as predicted by associational resistance hypotheses, the enemies hypothesis, and attraction and repellency model applications in agriculture We found extensive support for these models with intercropping schemes, inclusion of flowering plants, and use of plants that repel herbivores or attract them away from the crop Overall, herbivore suppression, enemy enhancement, and crop damage suppression effects were significantly stronger on diversified crops than on crops with none or fewer associated plant species However, a relatively small, but significantly negative, mean effect size for crop yield indicated that pest-suppressive diversification schemes interfered with production, in part because of reducing densities of the main crop by replacing it with intercrops or non-crop plants This first use of meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of diversification schemes, a potentially more powerful tool than tallies of significant positive and negative outcomes (vote-counting), revealed stronger overall effects on all parameters measured compared to previous reviews Our analysis of the same articles used in a recent review facilitates comparisons of vote-counting and meta-analysis, and shows that pronounced results of the meta-analysis are not well explained by a reduction in articles that met its stricter criteria Rather, compared to outcome counts, effect sizes were rarely neutral (equal to zero), and a mean effect size value for mixed outcomes could be calculated Problematic statistical properties of vote-counting were avoided with meta-analysis, thus providing a more precise test of the hypotheses The unambiguous and encouraging results from this meta-analysis of previous research should motivate ecologists to conduct more mechanistic experiments to improve the odds of designing effective crop diversification schemes for improved pest regulation and enhanced crop yield

Ecosystem services and urban heat riskscape moderation: water, green spaces, and social inequality in Phoenix, USA

Abstract: Urban ecosystems are subjected to high temperatures—extreme heat events, chronically hot weather, or both—through interactions between local and global climate processes. Urban vegetation may provide a cooling ecosystem service, although many knowledge gaps exist in the biophysical and social dynamics of using this service to reduce climate extremes. To better understand patterns of urban vegetated cooling, the potential water requirements to supply these services, and differential access to these services between residential neighborhoods, we evaluated three decades (1970–2000) of land surface characteristics and residential segregation by income in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA metropolitan region. We developed an ecosystem service trade-offs approach to assess the urban heat riskscape, defined as the spatial variation in risk exposure and potential human vulnerability to extreme heat. In this region, vegetation provided nearly a 25°C surface cooling compared to bare soil on low-humidity summer days; the ma...

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Abstract: Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies: (1) land use change to increase forest area (afforestation) and avoid deforestation; (2) carbon management in existing forests; and (3) the use of wood as biomass energy, in place of other building materials, or in wood products for carbon storage. We found that many strategies can increase forest sector carbon mitigation above the current 162-256 Tg C/yr, and that many strategies have co-benefits such as biodiversity, water, and economic opportunities. Each strategy also has trade-offs, risks, and uncertainties including possible leakage, permanence, disturbances, and climate change effects. Because ;60% of the carbon lost through deforestation and harvesting from 1700 to 1935 has not yet been recovered and because some strategies store carbon in forest products or use biomass energy, the biological potential for forest sector carbon mitigation is large. Several studies suggest that using these strategies could offset as much as 10-20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions. To obtain such large offsets in the United States would require a combination of afforesting up to one-third of cropland or pastureland, using the equivalent of about one-half of the gross annual forest growth for biomass energy, or implementing more intensive management to increase forest growth on one-third of forestland. Such large offsets would require substantial trade-offs, such as lower agricultural production and non-carbon ecosystem services from forests. The effectiveness of activities could be diluted by negative leakage effects and increasing disturbance regimes. Because forest carbon loss contributes to increasing climate risk and because climate change may impede regeneration following disturbance, avoiding deforestation and promoting regeneration after disturbance should receive high priority as policy considerations. Policies to encourage programs or projects that influence forest carbon sequestration and offset fossil fuel emissions should also consider major items such as leakage, the cyclical nature of forest growth and regrowth, and the extensive demand for and movement of forest products globally, and other greenhouse gas effects, such as

Effects of nitrogen deposition and empirical nitrogen critical loads for ecoregions of the United States

Abstract: Human activity in the last century has led to a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and atmospheric deposition. This N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. One approach for quantifying the deposition of pollution that would be harmful to ecosystems is the determination of critical loads. A critical load is defined as the input of a pollutant below which no detrimental ecological effects occur over the long-term according to present knowledge. The objectives of this project were to synthesize current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and to estimate associated empirical N critical loads. The receptors considered included freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi, lichens, bryophytes, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. Ecosystem impacts included: (1) biogeochemical responses and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. Biogeochemical responses included increased N mineralization and nitrification (and N availability for plant and microbial uptake), increased gaseous N losses (ammonia volatilization, nitric and nitrous oxide from nitrification and denitrification), and increased N leaching. Individual species, population, and community responses included increased tissue N, physiological and nutrient imbalances, increased growth, altered root : shoot ratios, increased susceptibility to secondary stresses, altered fire regime, shifts in competitive interactions and community composition, changes in species richness and other measures of biodiversity, and increases in invasive species.

Recent Bayesian stable-isotope mixing models are highly sensitive to variation in discrimination factors.

Abstract: Stable isotopes are now used widely in ecological studies, including diet reconstruction, where quantitative inferences about diet composition are derived from the use of mixing models. Recent Bayesian models (MixSIR, SIAR) allow users to incorporate variability in discrimination factors (Δ13C or Δ15N), or the amount of change in either δ13C or δ15N between prey and consumer, but to date there has been no systematic assessment of the effect of variation in Δ13C or Δ15N on model outputs. We used whole blood from Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) and muscle from their common prey items (fish and euphausiids) to build a series of mixing models in SIAR (stable isotope analysis in R) using various discrimination factors from the published literature for marine birds. The estimated proportion of each diet component was affected significantly by Δ13C or Δ15N. We also use recently published stable-isotope data on the reliance of critically endangered Balearic Shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) on fisheries discards ...

River restoration: the fuzzy logic of repairing reaches to reverse catchment scale degradation

Abstract: River restoration is an increasingly common approach utilized to reverse past degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to mitigate the anticipated damage to freshwaters from future development and resource-extraction activities. While the practice of river restoration has grown exponentially over the last several decades, there has been little empirical evaluation of whether restoration projects individually or cumulatively achieve the legally mandated goals of improving the structure and function of streams and rivers. New efforts to evaluate river restoration projects that use channel reconfiguration as a methodology for improving stream ecosystem structure and function are finding little evidence for measurable ecological improvement. While designed channels may have less-incised banks and greater sinuousity than the degraded streams they replace, these reach-scale efforts do not appear to be effectively mitigating the physical, hydrological, or chemical alterations that are responsible for the loss of sensitive taxa and the declines in water quality that typically motivate restoration efforts. Here we briefly summarize this new literature, including the collection of papers within this Invited Feature, and provide our perspective on the limitations of current restoration.

Effects of urbanization and urban stream restoration on the physical and biological structure of stream ecosystems

Abstract: Streams, as low-lying points in the landscape, are strongly influenced by the stormwaters, pollutants, and warming that characterize catchment urbanization. River restoration projects are an increasingly popular method for mitigating urban insults. Despite the growing frequency and high expense of urban stream restoration projects, very few projects have been evaluated to determine whether they can successfully enhance habitat structure or support the stream biota characteristic of reference sites. We compared the physical and biological structure of four urban degraded, four urban restored, and four forested streams in the Piedmont region of North Carolina to quantify the ability of reach-scale stream restoration to restore physical and biological structure to urban streams and to examine the assumption that providing habitat is sufficient for biological recovery. To be successful at mitigating urban impacts, the habitat structure and biological communities found in restored streams should be more similar to forested reference sites than to their urban degraded counterparts. For every measured reach- and patch-scale attribute, we found that restored streams were indistinguishable from their degraded urban stream counterparts. Forested streams were shallower, had greater habitat complexity and median sediment size, and contained less-tolerant communities with higher sensitive taxa richness than streams in either urban category. Because heavy machinery is used to regrade and reconfigure restored channels, restored streams had less canopy cover than either forested or urban streams. Channel habitat complexity and watershed impervious surface cover (ISC) were the best predictors of sensitive taxa richness and biotic index at the reach and catchment scale, respectively. Macroinvertebrate communities in restored channels were compositionally similar to the communities in urban degraded channels, and both were dissimilar to communities in forested streams. The macroinvertebrate communities of both restored and urban degraded streams were correlated with environmental variables characteristic of degraded urban systems. Our study suggests that reach-scale restoration is not successfully mitigating for the factors causing physical and biological degradation.

Agricultural intensification and biodiversity partitioning in European landscapes comparing plants, carabids, and birds

Abstract: Effects of agricultural intensification (AI) on biodiversity are often assessed on the plot scale, although processes determining diversity also operate on larger spatial scales. Here, we analyzed the diversity of vascular plants, carabid beetles, and birds in agricultural landscapes in cereal crop fields at the field (n ¼ 1350), farm (n ¼ 270), and European-region (n ¼ 9) scale. We partitioned diversity into its additive components a, b, and c, and assessed the relative contribution of b diversity to total species richness at each spatial scale. AI was determined using pesticide and fertilizer inputs, as well as tillage operations and categorized into low, medium, and high levels. As AI was not significantly related to landscape complexity, we could disentangle potential AI effects on local vs. landscape community homogenization. AI negatively affected the species richness of plants and birds, but not carabid beetles, at all spatial scales. Hence, local AI was closely correlated to b diversity on larger scales up to the farm and region level, and thereby was an indicator of farm- and region-wide biodiversity losses. At the scale of farms (12.83-20.52%) and regions (68.34-80.18%), b diversity accounted for the major part of the total species richness for all three taxa, indicating great dissimilarity in environmental conditions on larger spatial scales. For plants, relative importance of a diversity decreased with AI, while relative importance of b diversity on the farm scale increased with AI for carabids and birds. Hence, and in contrast to our expectations, AI does not necessarily homogenize local communities, presumably due to the heterogeneity of farming practices. In conclusion, a more detailed understanding of AI effects on diversity patterns of various taxa and at multiple spatial scales would contribute to more efficient agri- environmental schemes in agroecosystems.

Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era.

Abstract: Several forces are converging to transform ecological research and increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. These forces include (1) dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks, (2) increases in computational power, (3) advances in ecological models and related statistical and optimization methodologies, and most importantly, (4) societal needs to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-oriented models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today's models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting and estimates of uncertainty is data assimilation (DA), which uses data to inform initial conditions and model parameters, thereby constraining a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. This paper discusses the meaning and history of DA in ecological research and highlights its role in refining inference and generating forecasts. DA can advance ecological forecasting by (1) improving estimates of model parameters and state variables, (2) facilitating selection of alternative model structures, and (3) quantifying uncertainties arising from observations, models, and their interactions. However, DA may not improve forecasts when ecological processes are not well understood or never observed. Overall, we suggest that DA is a key technique for converting raw data into ecologically meaningful products, which is especially important in this era of dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks.

River restoration success depends on the species pool of the immediate surroundings.

Abstract: Previous studies evaluating the success of river restorations have rarely found any consistent effects on benthic invertebrate assemblages. In this study, we analyzed data from 24 river restoration projects in Germany dating back 1 to 12 years and 1231 data sets from adjacent river reaches that lie within 0-5, 5-10, and 10-15 km rings centered on the restored sites. We calculated restoration success and recolonization potential of adjacent river reaches based on stream-type-specific subsets of taxa indicative for good or bad habitat quality. On average, the restorations did not improve the benthic invertebrate community quality. However, we show that restoration success depends on the presence of source populations of desired taxa in the surrounding of restored sites. Only where source populations of additional desired taxa existed within a 0-5 km ring around the restored sites were benthic invertebrate assemblages improved by the restoration. Beyond the 5-km rings, this recolonization effect was no longer detected. We present here the first field results to support the debated argument that a lack of source populations in the areas surrounding restored sites may play an important role in the failure to establish desired invertebrate communities by the means of river restorations. In contrast, long-range dispersal of invertebrates seems to play a subordinate role in the recolonization of restored sites. However, because the surroundings of the restored sites were far from good ecological quality, the potential for improvement of restored sites was limited.

Movement responses by wolves to industrial linear features and their effect on woodland caribou in northeastern Alberta

Abstract: Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining across most of their range. Predation by wolves (Canis lupus) is believed to be the main proximate cause of these declines. However, it has been hypothesized that recent forestry and energy sector activity in caribou range ultimately might have caused population declines by altering wolf-caribou relationships. We tested the hypothesis that industrial linear features influence wolf movements in woodland caribou range in northeastern Alberta, resulting in increased wolf-caused caribou mortalities close to these features. Using step selection functions (SSF) and observed vs. simulated wolf movement paths, we found that wolf movement was influenced by natural linear features (rivers and streams) throughout the year, possibly because they provide ease of travel and high prey abundance. Wolf movement was further influenced by industrial linear features, but use of these features differed depending on line- type and season. Wolves showed strong selection for steps closer to conventional seismic lines during the snow-free season. Likewise, observed wolf movement paths followed conventional seismic lines more closely than simulated paths during snow-free months. Use of seismic lines as movement corridors might result in wolves hunting in caribou-preferred habitats (bogs and fens) more frequently than they did historically, particularly in the snow-free season when most caribou mortalities occur. However, we found no evidence that caribou mortalities occurred closer to industrial linear features than did live caribou. We conclude that wolf use of seismic lines increases predation risk for caribou close to these features, resulting in caribou avoidance of linear developments and thus functional loss of otherwise suitable habitat for caribou.

Transpiration of urban forests in the Los Angeles metropolitan area

Abstract: Despite its importance for urban planning, landscape management, and water management, there are very few in situ estimates of urban-forest transpiration. Because urban forests contain an unusual and diverse mix of species from many regions worldwide, we hypothesized that species composition would be a more important driver of spatial variability in urban-forest transpiration than meteorological variables in the Los Angeles (California, USA) region. We used constant-heat sap-flow sensors to monitor urban tree water use for 15 species at six locations throughout the Los Angeles metropolitan area. For many of these species no previous data on sap flux, water use, or water relations were available in the literature. To scale sap-flux measurements to whole trees we conducted a literature survey of radial trends in sap flux across multiple species and found consistent relationships for angiosperms vs. gymnosperms. We applied this relationship to our measurements and estimated whole-tree and plot-level transpiration at our sites. The results supported very large species differences in transpiration, with estimates ranging from 3.2 +/- 2.3 kg x tree(-1) x d(-1) in unirrigated Pinus canariensis (Canary Island pine) to 176.9 +/- 75.2 kg x tree(-1) x d(-1) in Platanus hybrida (London planetree) in the month of August. Other species with high daily transpiration rates included Ficus microcarpa (laurel fig), Gleditsia triacanthos (honeylocust), and Platanus racemosa (California sycamore). Despite irrigation and relatively large tree size, Brachychiton populneas (kurrajong), B. discolor (lacebark), Sequoia sempervirens (redwood), and Eucalyptus grandis (grand Eucalyptus) showed relatively low rates of transpiration, with values < 45 kg x tree(-1) x d(-1). When scaled to the plot level, transpiration rates were as high as 2 mm/d for sites that contained both species with high transpiration rates and high densities of planted trees. Because plot-level transpiration is highly dependent on tree density, we modeled transpiration as a function of both species and density to evaluate a likely range of values in irrigated urban forests. The results show that urban forests in irrigated, semi-arid regions can constitute a significant use of water, but water use can be mitigated by appropriate selection of site, management method, and species.

Anthropogenic resource subsidies decouple predator–prey relationships

Abstract: The extent to which resource subsidies affect food web dynamics is poorly understood in anthropogenic landscapes. To better understand how species interactions are influenced by subsidies, we studied breeding birds and nest predators along a rural-to-urban landscape gradient that varied in subsidies provided to generalist predators. We hypothesized that resource subsidies in urban landscapes would decouple predator-prey relationships, as predators switch from natural to anthropogenic foods. From 2004 to 2009, we surveyed nest predators and monitored 2942 nests of five songbird species breeding in 19 mature forest stands in Ohio, USA. Eighteen species were video-recorded depredating nests. Numbers of avian and mammalian nest predators were positively associated with the amount of urban development surrounding forests, with the exception of Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater). Although nest survival strongly declined with detections of nest predators in rural landscapes, nest survival and predator numbers were unrelated in urban landscapes. Thus, the strength of interaction between breeding birds and nest predators diminished as landscapes surrounding forested parks became more urbanized. Our work suggests that decoupling of predator-prey relationships can arise when synanthropic predators are heavily subsidized by anthropogenic resources. In this way, human drivers can alter, and completely disarticulate, relationships among species that are well established in more natural systems.

Fire effects on temperate forest soil C and N storage

Abstract: Temperate forest soils store globally significant amounts of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Understanding how soil pools of these two elements change in response to disturbance and management is critical to maintaining ecosystem services such as forest productivity, greenhouse gas mitigation, and water resource protection. Fire is one of the principal disturbances acting on forest soil C and N storage and is also the subject of enormous management efforts. In the present article, we use meta-analysis to quantify fire effects on temperate forest soil C and N storage. Across a combined total of 468 soil C and N response ratios from 57 publications (concentrations and pool sizes), fire had significant overall effects on soil C (-26%) and soil N (-22%). The impacts of fire on forest floors were significantly different from its effects on mineral soils. Fires reduced forest floor C and N storage (pool sizes only) by an average of 59% and 50%, respectively, but the concentrations of these two elements did not change. Prescribed fires caused smaller reductions in forest floor C and N storage (-46% and -35%) than wildfires (-67% and -69%), and the presence of hardwoods also mitigated fire impacts. Burned forest floors recovered their C and N pools in an average of 128 and 103 years, respectively. Among mineral soils, there were no significant changes in C or N storage, but C and N concentrations declined significantly (-11% and -12%, respectively). Mineral soil C and N concentrations were significantly affected by fire type, with no change following prescribed burns, but significant reductions in response to wildfires. Geographic variation in fire effects on mineral soil C and N storage underscores the need for region-specific fire management plans, and the role of fire type in mediating C and N shifts (especially in the forest floor) indicates that averting wildfires through prescribed burning is desirable from a soils perspective.

Balancing alternative land uses in conservation prioritization

Abstract: Pressure on ecosystems to provide various different and often conflicting services is immense and likely to increase. The impacts and success of conservation prioritization will be enhanced if the needs of competing land uses are recognized at the planning stage. We develop such methods and illustrate them with data about competing land uses in Great Britain, with the aim of developing a conservation priority ranking that balances between needs of biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, agricultural value, and urban development potential. While both carbon stocks and biodiversity are desirable features from the point of view of conservation, they compete with the needs of agriculture and urban development. In Britain the greatest conflicts exist between biodiversity and urban areas, while the largest carbon stocks occur mostly in Scotland in areas with low agricultural or urban pressure. In our application, we were able successfully to balance the spatial allocation of alternative land uses so that conflicts between them were much smaller than had they been developed separately. The proposed methods and software, Zonation, are applicable to structurally similar prioritization problems globally.

The relationship between agricultural intensification and biological control: experimental tests across Europe.

Abstract: Agricultural intensification can affect biodiversity and related ecosystem services such as biological control, but large-scale experimental evidence is missing. We examined aphid pest populations in cereal fields under experimentally reduced densities of (1) ground-dwelling predators (-G), (2) vegetation-dwelling predators and parasitoids (-V), (3) a combination of (1) and (2) (-G-V), compared with open-fields (control), in contrasting landscapes with low vs. high levels of agricultural intensification (AI), and in five European regions. Aphid populations were 28%, 97%, and 199% higher in -G, -V, and -G-V treatments, respectively, compared to the open fields, indicating synergistic effects of both natural-enemy groups. Enhanced parasitoid: host and predator: prey ratios were related to reduced aphid population density and population growth. The relative importance of parasitoids and vegetation-dwelling predators greatly differed among European regions, and agricultural intensification affected biological control and aphid density only in some regions. This shows a changing role of species group identity in diverse enemy communities and a need to consider region-specific landscape management.

River restoration success: a question of perception

Abstract: What defines success and failure of river restoration measures is a strongly debated topic in restoration science, but standardized approaches to evaluate either are still not available. The debate is usually centered on measurable parameters, which adhere to scientific objectivity. More subjective aspects, such as landscape aesthetics or recreational value, are usually left out, although they play an important role in the perception and communication of restoration success. In this paper, we show that different perceptions of restoration success exist by analyzing data from 26 river restoration measures in Germany. We addressed both objective parameters, such as hydromorphological changes and changes in fish and benthic invertebrate assemblages, from field investigations, and subjective parameters, such as opinions and perceptions, from water managers via an online survey. With regard to the objective hydromorphological and biotic parameters, our results agree with many studies that have reported improvements in the hydromorphology following restoration; however, there is no similar agreement between results concerning changes in the benthic invertebrate and fish assemblages. The objective results do not correspond to the subjective parameters because self-evaluation of the restoration projects by water managers was overly positive. Indeed, 40% of the respondents admitted that their evaluation was based on gut feeling, and only 45% of the restoration measures were monitored or occasionally checked. This lack of objectively recorded data meant that the water managers were not able to reasonably evaluate restoration success. In contrast, some self-evaluation responses reflected a different perception of the restoration success that was based on landscape aesthetic values or on benefit for the public; others adopted a general ''condemned to success'' attitude. Based on our data, we argue (1) that goals should be thoughtfully formulated prior to restoration implementation and (2) that it is necessary to monitor river restoration success from different perspectives.

Invasive species and habitat degradation in Iberian streams: an analysis of their role in freshwater fish diversity loss

Abstract: Mediterranean endemic freshwater fish are among the most threatened biota in the world. Distinguishing the role of different extinction drivers and their potential interactions is crucial for achieving conservation goals. While some authors argue that invasive species are a main driver of native species declines, others see their proliferation as a co-occurring process to biodiversity loss driven by habitat degradation. It is difficult to discern between the two potential causes given that few invaded ecosystems are free from habitat degradation, and that both factors may interact in different ways. Here we analyze the relative importance of habitat degradation and invasive species in the decline of native fish assemblages in the Guadiana River basin (southwestern Iberian Peninsula) using an information theoretic approach to evaluate interaction pathways between invasive species and habitat degradation (structural equation modeling, SEM). We also tested the possible changes in the functional relationships between invasive and native species, measured as the per capita effect of invasive species, using ANCOVA. We found that the abundance of invasive species was the best single predictor of natives' decline and had the highest Akaike weight among the set of predictor variables examined. Habitat degradation neither played an active role nor influenced the per capita effect of invasive species on natives. Our analyses indicated that downstream reaches and areas close to reservoirs had the most invaded fish assemblages, independently of their habitat degradation status. The proliferation of invasive species poses a strong threat to the persistence of native assemblages in highly fluctuating environments. Therefore, conservation efforts to reduce native freshwater fish diversity loss in Mediterranean rivers should focus on mitigating the effect of invasive species and preventing future invasions.

How does fire intensity and frequency affect miombo woodland tree populations and biomass

Abstract: Miombo woodlands are the largest savanna in the world and dominate southern Africa. They are strongly influenced by anthropogenic fires and support the livelihoods of over 100 million people. Managing the fire regime of these flammable systems is difficult, but crucial for sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon stocks. Fire intensity is more easily manipulated than fire frequency, because suppression is expensive and ineffective. However, there are important issues relating fire intensity to impacts on woody vegetation that need to be understood to inform management approaches. Such impacts include the links between fire intensity, tree top-kill, resprouting, and regrowth rates. Here we present results from a fire experiment in Mozambican miombo; the results of a 50-year fire experiment in Zimbabwean miombo; and observations of forest structure at a dry-forest site in Mozambique. We synthesize these data with a process-based gap model of stem growth, regeneration, and mortality; this mode...

Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada

Abstract: Human-aided movement of species populations in large-scale reforestation programs could be a potent and cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy. Such large- scale management interventions, however, tend to entail the risks of unintended consequences, and we propose that three conditions should be met before implementing assisted migration in reforestation programs: (1) evidence of a climate-related adaptational lag, (2) observed biological impacts, and (3) robust model projections to target assisted migration efforts. In a case study of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) we use reciprocal transplant experiments to study adaptation of tree populations to local environments. Second, we monitor natural aspen populations using the MODIS enhanced vegetation index as a proxy for forest health and productivity. Last, we report results from bioclimate envelope models that predict suitable habitat for locally adapted genotypes under observed and predicted climate change. The combined results support assisted migration prescriptions and indicate that the risk of inaction likely exceeds the risk associated with changing established management practices. However, uncertainty in model projections also implies that we are restricted to a relatively short 20-year planning horizon for prescribing seed movement in reforestation programs. We believe that this study exemplifies a safe and realistic climate change adaptation strategy based on multiple sources of information and some understanding of the uncertainty associated with recommendations for assisted migration. Ad hoc migration prescriptions without a similar level of supporting information should be avoided in reforestation programs.

Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Abstract: Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme w...

Ecosystem ecology meets adaptive management: food web response to a controlled flood on the Colorado River, Glen Canyon.

Abstract: Large dams have been constructed on rivers to meet human demands for water, electricity, navigation, and recreation. As a consequence, flow and temperature regimes have been altered, strongly affecting river food webs and ecosystem processes. Experimental high-flow dam releases, i.e., controlled floods, have been implemented on the Colorado River, U.S.A., in an effort to reestablish pulsed flood events, redistribute sediments, improve conditions for native fishes, and increase understanding of how dam operations affect physical and biological processes. We quantified secondary production and organic matter flows in the food web below Glen Canyon dam for two years prior and one year after an experimental controlled flood in March 2008. Invertebrate biomass and secondary production declined significantly following the flood (total biomass, 55% decline; total production, 56% decline), with most of the decline driven by reductions in two nonnative invertebrate taxa, Potamopyrgus antipodarum and Gammarus lacustris. Diatoms dominated the trophic basis of invertebrate production before and after the controlled flood, and the largest organic matter flows were from diatoms to the three most productive invertebrate taxa (P. antipodarum, G. lacustris, and Tubificida). In contrast to invertebrates, production of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) increased substantially (194%) following the flood, despite the large decline in total secondary production of the invertebrate assemblage. This counterintuitive result is reconciled by a post-flood increase in production and drift concentrations of select invertebrate prey (i.e., Chironomidae and Simuliidae) that supported a large proportion of trout production but had relatively low secondary production. In addition, interaction strengths, measured as species impact values, were strongest between rainbow trout and these two taxa before and after the flood, demonstrating that the dominant consumer-resource interactions were not necessarily congruent with the dominant organic matter flows. Our study illustrates the value of detailed food web analysis for elucidating pathways by which dam management may alter production and strengths of species interactions in river food webs. We suggest that controlled floods may increase production of nonnative rainbow trout, and this information can be used to help guide future dam management decisions.

Twenty years of stream restoration in Finland : little response by benthic macroinvertebrate communities

Abstract: The primary focus of many in-stream restoration projects is to enhance habitat diversity for salmonid fishes, yet the lack of properly designed monitoring studies, particularly ones with pre-restoration data, limits any attempts to assess whether restoration has succeeded in improving salmonid habitat Even less is known about the impacts of fisheries-related restoration on other, non-target biota We examined how restoration aiming at the enhancement of juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta L) affects benthic macroinvertebrates, using two separate data sets: (1) a before−after−control−impact (BACI) design with three years before and three after restoration in differently restored and control reaches of six streams; and (2) a space–time substitution design including channelized, restored, and near-natural streams with an almost 20-year perspective on the recovery of invertebrate communities In the BACI design, total macroinvertebrate density differed significantly from before to after restoration Followin

How novel is too novel? Stream community thresholds at exceptionally low levels of catchment urbanization

Abstract: Novel physical and chemical conditions of many modern ecosystems increasingly diverge from the environments known to have existed at any time in the history of Earth. The loss of natural land to urbanization is one of the most prevalent drivers of novel environments in freshwaters. However, current understanding of aquatic community response to urbanization is based heavily upon aggregate indicators of community structure and linear or wedge-shaped community response models that challenge ecological community theory. We applied a new analytical method, threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN), to a stream biomonitoring data set from Maryland to explicitly evaluate linear community response models to urbanization that implicitly assume individual taxa decline or increase at incrementally different levels of urbanization. We used TITAN (1) to identify the location and magnitude of greatest change in the frequency and abundance of individual taxa and (2) to assess synchrony in the location of change points ...

The conservation value of residential yards: linking birds and people.

Abstract: Urbanization is recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity throughout the world. However, the vegetation within an urbanized landscape is diverse and includes a variety of native and exotic plant species. This variation allows for testing whether certain landscape designs outperform others in the support of native biodiversity. Residential yards represent a large component of an urban landscape and, if managed collectively for birds and other wildlife, could offset some of the negative effects of urbanization. In addition, many urbanites have their primary interaction with the natural world in their front and back yards. Therefore, ensuring positive wildlife experiences for them is essential in promoting urban biodiversity. At the Central Arizona–Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research site we tested the efficacy of native landscaping in residential yards in attracting native birds. We also explored the links between socioeconomic factors, landscape designs, and urban gradient measurements with the urban bird communities. A redundancy analysis suggested that native desert bird species increased in abundance in neighborhoods with desert landscaping designs, neighborhoods closer to large desert tracts, and higher-income neighborhoods. Variance partitioning showed that collectively these three sets of environmental variables explained almost 50% of the variation in the urban bird community. Results suggested racial and economic inequities in access to biodiversity, whereby predominantly Hispanic and lower-income neighborhoods had fewer native birds. We also found that residents' satisfaction with bird diversity was positively correlated with actual bird diversity. Our study provides new insights into the relative importance of socioeconomic variables and common urban ecological measurements in explaining urban bird communities. Urban planners can use this information to develop residential landscapes that support the well-being of both birds and people.

The biogeochemistry of bioenergy landscapes: carbon, nitrogen, and water considerations.

Abstract: The biogeochemical liabilities of grain-based crop production for bioenergy are no different from those of grain-based food production: excessive nitrate leakage, soil carbon and phosphorus loss, nitrous oxide production, and attenuated methane uptake. Contingent problems are well known, increasingly well documented, and recalcitrant: freshwater and coastal marine eutrophication, groundwater pollution, soil organic matter loss, and a warming atmosphere. The conversion of marginal lands not now farmed to annual grain production, including the repatriation of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and other conservation set-aside lands, will further exacerbate the biogeochemical imbalance of these landscapes, as could pressure to further simplify crop rotations. The expected emergence of biorefinery and combustion facilities that accept cellulosic materials offers an alternative outcome: agricultural landscapes that accumulate soil carbon, that conserve nitrogen and phosphorus, and that emit relatively small amounts of nitrous oxide to the atmosphere. Fields in these landscapes are planted to perennial crops that require less fertilizer, that retain sediments and nutrients that could otherwise be transported to groundwater and streams, and that accumulate carbon in both soil organic matter and roots. If mixed-species assemblages, they additionally provide biodiversity services. Biogeochemical responses of these systems fall chiefly into two areas: carbon neutrality and water and nutrient conservation. Fluxes must be measured and understood in proposed cropping systems sufficient to inform models that will predict biogeochemical behavior at field, landscape, and regional scales. Because tradeoffs are inherent to these systems, a systems approach is imperative, and because potential biofuel cropping systems and their environmental contexts are complex and cannot be exhaustively tested, modeling will be instructive. Modeling alternative biofuel cropping systems converted from different starting points, for example, suggests that converting CRP to corn ethanol production under conventional tillage results in substantially increased net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that can be only partly mitigated with no-till management. Alternatively, conversion of existing cropland or prairie to switchgrass production results in a net GHG sink. Outcomes and policy must be informed by science that adequately quantifies the true biogeochemical costs and advantages of alternative systems.

Enhanced biodiversity beyond marine reserve boundaries: the cup spillith over.

Abstract: Overfishing can have detrimental effects on marine biodiversity and the structure of marine ecosystems. No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are much advocated as a means of protecting biodiversity and ecosystem structure from overharvest. In contrast to terrestrial protected areas, NTMRs are not only expected to conserve or recover biodiversity and ecosystems within their boundaries, but also to enhance biodiversity beyond their boundaries by exporting species richness and more complex biological communities. Here we show that species richness of large predatory reef fish increased fourfold and 11-fold inside two Philippine no-take marine reserves over 14 and 25 years, respectively. Outside one reserve (Apo) the species richness also increased. This increase beyond the Apo reserve boundary was 78% higher closer to the boundary (200-250 m) than farther from it (250-500 m). The increase in richness beyond the boundary could not be explained by improvements over time in habitat or prey availability. Furthermore, community composition of predatory fish outside but close to (200-250 m) the Apo reserve became very similar to that inside the reserve over time, almost converging with it in multivariate space after 26 years of reserve protection. This is consistent with the suggestion that, as community composition inside Apo reserve increased in complexity, this complexity spilled over the boundary into nearby fished areas. Clearly, the spillover of species richness and community complexity is a direct consequence of the spillover of abundance of multiple species. However, this spillover of species richness and community complexity demonstrates an important benefit of biodiversity and ecosystem export from reserves, and it provides hope that reserves can help to reverse the decline of marine ecosystems and biodiversity.

The effects of regional angling effort, angler behavior, and harvesting efficiency on landscape patterns of overfishing

Abstract: We used a coupled social-ecological model to study the landscape-scale patterns emerging from a mobile population of anglers exploiting a spatially structured walleye (Sander vitreus) fishery. We systematically examined how variations in angler behaviors (i.e., relative importance of walleye catch rate in guiding fishing site choices), harvesting efficiency (as implied by varying degrees of inverse density-dependent catchability of walleye), and angler population size affected the depletion of walleye stocks across 157 lakes located near Thunder Bay (Ontario, Canada). Walleye production biology was calibrated using lake-specific morphometric and edaphic features, and angler fishing site choices were modeled using an empirically grounded multi-attribute utility function. We found support for the hypothesis of sequential collapses of walleye stocks across the landscape in inverse proportionality of travel cost from the urban residence of anglers. This pattern was less pronounced when the regional angler population was low, density-dependent catchability was absent or low, and angler choices of lakes in the landscape were strongly determined by catch rather than non-catch-related attributes. Thus, our study revealed a systematic pattern of high catch importance reducing overfishing potential at low and aggravating overfishing potential at high angler population sizes. The analyses also suggested that density-dependent catchability might have more serious consequences for regional overfishing states than variations in angler behavior. We found little support for the hypotheses of systematic overexploitation of the most productive walleye stocks and homogenized catch-related qualities among lakes sharing similar access costs to anglers. Therefore, one should not expect anglers to systematically exploit the most productive fisheries or to equalize catch rates among lakes through their mobility and other behaviors. This study underscores that understanding landscape overfishing dynamics involves a careful appreciation of angler population size and how it interacts with the attributes that drive angler behaviors and depensatory mechanisms such as inverse density-dependent catchability. Only when all of these ingredients are considered and understood can one derive reasonably predictable patterns of overfishing in the landscape. These patterns range from self-regulating systems with low levels of regional fishing pressure to sequential collapse of walleye fisheries from the origin of angling effort.

Is invasion history a useful tool for predicting the impacts of the world's worst aquatic invasive species?

Abstract: The ecological impact stemming from a biological invasion is the most poorly understood aspect of the invasion process. While forecasting methods are generally lacking, a potential means of predicting future impacts is to examine the effects caused by a nonindigenous species (NIS) at previously invaded locations, i.e., its invasion history. However, given the context dependence of impact and the scarcity of data, it is uncertain whether invasion history can in fact be used to forecast the effects of most introduced species. Using a sample of 19 aquatic NIS listed with the IUCN's 100 World's Worst Alien Invasive Species, we reviewed the literature to determine (1) the amount of information currently available concerning their ecological impacts, (2) if the effects reported to be caused by each NIS are consistent across multiple studies, and (3) whether their invasion histories provide sufficient quantitative information to assess and forecast the severity of their impacts on recipient environments. As a case study, we conducted a meta-analysis and developed models that relate the severity of the impacts of a well-documented invader, common carp (Cyprinus carpio), to two potential predictor variables: biomass and time since introduction. We then tested whether models developed from one set of observations can predict the severity of impacts reported at other sites. Models incorporating biomass and pre-impact conditions explained 91% of the variation in carp impact severity at new locations (i.e., those not used to build the models). For most other NIS, limited availability of comparable quantitative data currently prevents the development of similar empirical models for predicting the severity of future impact. Nonetheless, invasion history can often be used to develop informative predictions concerning the type and direction of impacts to be expected at novel recipient sites.