Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease
Simon I. Hay,Monica F. Myers,Donald S. Burke,D W Vaughn,Timothy P. Endy,N Ananda,G D Shanks,Robert W. Snow,Robert W. Snow,David J. Rogers +9 more
TLDR
It is concluded that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in dengue hemorrhagic fever and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Bangkok and western Kenya.Abstract:
Dengue viruses and malaria protozoa are of increasing global concern in public health. The diseases caused by these pathogens often show regular seasonal patterns in incidence because of the sensitivity of their mosquito vectors to climate. Between years in endemic areas, however, there can be further significant variation in case numbers for which public health systems are generally unprepared. There is an acute need for reliable predictions of within-year and between-year epidemic events. The prerequisite for developing any system of early warning is a detailed understanding of the factors involved in epidemic genesis. In this report we discuss the potential causes of the interepidemic periods in dengue hemorrhagic fever in Bangkok and of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a highland area of western Kenya. The alternative causes are distinguished by a retrospective analysis of two unique and contemporaneous 33-year time series of epidemiological and associated meteorological data recorded at these two sites. We conclude that intrinsic population dynamics offer the most parsimonious explanation for the observed interepidemic periods of disease in these locations.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus
Oliver J. Brady,Peter W. Gething,Samir Bhatt,Jane P. Messina,John S. Brownstein,Anne G. Hoen,Catherine L. Moyes,Andrew Farlow,Thomas W. Scott,Thomas W. Scott,Simon I. Hay,Simon I. Hay +11 more
TL;DR: A contemporary global map of national-level dengue status is generated that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence and provides a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people.
Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases.
Sonia Altizer,Andrew P. Dobson,Parviez R. Hosseini,Peter J. Hudson,Mercedes Pascual,Pejman Rohani +5 more
TL;DR: Examples from human and wildlife disease systems are reviewed to illustrate the challenges inherent in understanding the mechanisms and impacts of seasonal environmental drivers, and to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions.
Journal ArticleDOI
The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases
TL;DR: While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change and mosquito-borne disease.
TL;DR: The histories of three such diseases--malaria, yellow fever, and dengue--reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range; human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant.
Journal ArticleDOI
Effects of Global Climate on Infectious Disease: the Cholera Model
TL;DR: The cholera model provides a template for future research on climate-sensitive diseases, allowing definition of critical parameters and offering a means of developing more sophisticated methods for prediction of disease outbreaks.
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