Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices
TLDR
In this paper, a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model was used to estimate the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation.Abstract:
Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50%. This will cause costs of 34 billion US$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$ in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of incentives and taxes could turn out to be a viable solution for this problem. Increasing the value of forest land and thereby make it less easily prone to deforestation would act as a strong incentive to increase productivity of agricultural and fuelwood production, which could be supported by revenues generated by the deforestation tax.read more
Citations
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Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets
Petr Havlik,Uwe A. Schneider,Erwin Schmid,Hannes Böttcher,Steffen Fritz,Rastislav Skalský,K. Aoki,Stéphane De Cara,Georg Kindermann,Florian Kraxner,Sylvain Leduc,Ian McCallum,Aline Mosnier,Timm Sauer,Michael Obersteiner +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an economic partial equilibrium model of the global forest, agriculture, and biomass sectors with a bottom-up representation of agricultural and forestry management practices was used to analyze the indirect land use change (iLUC) of expanding agricultural areas dedicated to biofuel production.
Journal ArticleDOI
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Alexander Popp,Katherine Calvin,Shinichiro Fujimori,Petr Havlik,Florian Humpenöder,Elke Stehfest,Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,Benjamin Leon Bodirsky,Jan Philipp Dietrich,Jonathan C. Doelmann,Mykola Gusti,Mykola Gusti,Tomoko Hasegawa,Page Kyle,Michael Obersteiner,Andrzej Tabeau,Kiyoshi Takahashi,Hugo Valin,Stephanie Waldhoff,Isabelle Weindl,Isabelle Weindl,Marshall Wise,Elmar Kriegler,Hermann Lotze-Campen,Hermann Lotze-Campen,Oliver Fricko,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren +29 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation
Georg Kindermann,Michael Obersteiner,Brent Sohngen,Jayant Sathaye,Kenneth Andrasko,Ewald Rametsteiner,Bernhard Schlamadinger,Sven Wunder,Robert Beach +8 more
TL;DR: Three economic models of global land use and management are used to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option.
Journal ArticleDOI
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Oliver Fricko,Petr Havlik,Joeri Rogelj,Zbigniew Klimont,Mykola Gusti,Mykola Gusti,Nils Johnson,Peter Kolp,M. Strubegger,Hugo Valin,Markus Amann,Tatiana Ermolieva,Nicklas Forsell,Mario Herrero,Chris Heyes,Georg Kindermann,Volker Krey,David L. McCollum,Michael Obersteiner,Shonali Pachauri,Shilpa Rao,Erwin Schmid,Wolfgang Schoepp,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi +24 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or "marker" implementation for SSP2 and explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework.
Journal ArticleDOI
Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the sustainable development goals
David L. McCollum,David L. McCollum,Wenji Zhou,Christoph Bertram,Harmen Sytze de Boer,Valentina Bosetti,Valentina Bosetti,Sebastian Busch,Jacques Després,Laurent Drouet,Johannes Emmerling,Marianne Fay,Oliver Fricko,Shinichiro Fujimori,Shinichiro Fujimori,Matthew Gidden,Mathijs Harmsen,Mathijs Harmsen,Daniel Huppmann,Gokul Iyer,Volker Krey,Elmar Kriegler,Claire Nicolas,Shonali Pachauri,Simon Parkinson,Simon Parkinson,Miguel Poblete-Cazenave,Peter Rafaj,Narasimha D. Rao,Julie Rozenberg,Andreas Schmitz,Wolfgang Schoepp,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi +35 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-model study projects investment needs under countries' nationally determined contributions and in pathways consistent with achieving the 2°C and 1.5°C targets as well as certain SDGs, showing that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions.
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