Journal ArticleDOI
Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production
TLDR
This paper developed a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields.Abstract:
Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980–2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001–2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25–45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Crop yield sensitivity of global major agricultural countries to droughts and the projected changes in the future.
Guoyong Leng,Jim W. Hall +1 more
TL;DR: This study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries and highlights the non-linear response ofield loss risk to the increase in drought severity.
Journal ArticleDOI
Soil moisture dominates dryness stress on ecosystem production globally.
TL;DR: Satellite observations of solar-induced fluorescence with estimates of SM and VPD show that SM is the dominant driver of dryness stress on ecosystem production across more than 70% of vegetated land areas with valid data, and it is found that SM stress is strongest in semi-arid ecosystems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future
TL;DR: A review of recent advances in understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future, can be found in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Propagation thresholds of meteorological drought for triggering hydrological drought at various levels
TL;DR: A novel model based on a Bayesian network was proposed to address the issue of what the extent of meteorological drought could trigger the corresponding hydrological drought with different levels, and the results indicated that the results of drought propagation threshold were reliable and accurate.
Journal ArticleDOI
Drought evolution and its impact on the crop yield in the North China Plain
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought events in the North China Plain (NCP) based on the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and investigated the impact of drought on winter wheat and summer maize yields.
References
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Book
An Introduction to Copulas
TL;DR: This book discusses the fundamental properties of copulas and some of their primary applications, which include the study of dependence and measures of association, and the construction of families of bivariate distributions.
The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales
TL;DR: The definition of drought has continually been a stumbling block for drought monitoring and analysis as mentioned in this paper, mainly related to the time period over which deficits accumulate and to the connection of the deficit in precipitation to deficits in usable water sources and the impacts that ensue.
Journal ArticleDOI
MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications
Michele M. Rienecker,Max J. Suarez,Ronald Gelaro,Ricardo Todling,Julio T. Bacmeister,Julio T. Bacmeister,Emily Liu,Emily Liu,Michael G. Bosilovich,Siegfried D. Schubert,Lawrence L. Takacs,Lawrence L. Takacs,Gi-Kong Kim,S. C. Bloom,S. C. Bloom,Junye Chen,Junye Chen,Douglas Collins,Douglas Collins,Austin Conaty,Austin Conaty,Arlindo da Silva,Wei Gu,Wei Gu,Joanna Joiner,Randal D. Koster,Robert A. Lucchesi,Robert A. Lucchesi,Andrea Molod,Andrea Molod,Tommy Owens,Tommy Owens,Steven Pawson,Philip Pegion,Philip Pegion,Christopher R. Redder,Christopher R. Redder,Rolf H. Reichle,Franklin R. Robertson,Albert G. Ruddick,Albert G. Ruddick,Meta Sienkiewicz,Meta Sienkiewicz,John S. Woollen +43 more
TL;DR: The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA's Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts
David R. Easterling,Gerald A. Meehl,Camille Parmesan,Stanley A. Changnon,Thomas R. Karl,Linda O. Mearns +5 more
TL;DR: Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed.