Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects
Alkiviadis F. Bais,Kleareti Tourpali,Andreas Kazantzidis,Hideharu Akiyoshi,Slimane Bekki,Peter Braesicke,Martyn P. Chipperfield,Martin Dameris,Veronika Eyring,Hella Garny,D. Iachetti,Patrick Jöckel,Anne Kubin,Ulrike Langematz,Emanuele Mancini,Martine Michou,Olaf Morgenstern,Tetsu Nakamura,Paul A. Newman,Giovanni Pitari,David A. Plummer,Eugene Rozanov,Theodore G. Shepherd,Kiyotaka Shibata,W. Tian,Yousuke Yamashita +25 more
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In this article, the authors used radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC.Abstract:
. Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to the 1960s.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation
Richard McKenzie,Pieter J. Aucamp,Alkiviades F. Bais,Lars Olof Björn,Lars Olof Björn,Mohamad Ilyas,Sasha Madronich +6 more
TL;DR: The Montreal Protocol is working, but it will take several decades for ozone to return to 1980 levels, and the phase-out of CFCs is currently tending to counteract the increases in surface temperature due to increased GHGs.
Journal ArticleDOI
Solar Ultraviolet Radiation in a Changing Climate
Craig E. Williamson,Richard G. Zepp,Robyn M. Lucas,Robyn M. Lucas,Sasha Madronich,Amy T. Austin,Carlos L. Ballaré,Mary Norval,Barbara Sulzberger,Alkiviadis F. Bais,Richard McKenzie,Sharon A. Robinson,Donat-P. Häder,Nigel D. Paul,Janet F. Bornman +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2011
TL;DR: The parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three panels of experts, one of which is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues, the effects of increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials and interactions between UV radiation and global climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
The consequences for human health of stratospheric ozone depletion in association with other environmental factors
Robyn M. Lucas,Robyn M. Lucas,Mary Norval,Rachel E. Neale,Antony R. Young,F.R. de Gruijl,Y Takizawa,J.C. van der Leun +7 more
TL;DR: It continues to be difficult to provide public health messages to guide safe exposure to the sun that are accurate, simple, and can be used by people with different skin types, in different locations, and for different times of the year or day.
Journal ArticleDOI
Perspective: Advancing the research agenda for improving understanding of cyanobacteria in a future of global change
Michele A. Burford,Cayelan C. Carey,David P. Hamilton,Jef Huisman,Hans W. Paerl,Susanna A. Wood,Angela Wulff +6 more
TL;DR: A recent review as discussed by the authors advocates that to better predict and manage cyanoHABs in a changing world, researchers need to leverage studies undertaken to date, but adopt a more complex and definitive suite of experiments and models which can effectively capture the temporal scales of processes driven by eutrophication and a changing climate.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003
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