Journal ArticleDOI
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
James M. Murphy,David M. H. Sexton,David N. Barnett,Gareth S. Jones,Mark J. Webb,Matthew Collins,David A. Stainforth +6 more
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A systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters, which produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.Abstract:
Comprehensive global climate models1 are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality2,3, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process4. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5–95 per cent probability range of 2.4–5.4 °C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation5,6.read more
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Book
The Economics of Climate Change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an appropriate way to examine the economics of climate change, given the unique scientific and economic challenges posed, and suggest implications for emissions targets, policy instruments, and global action.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
Pierre Friedlingstein,Peter M. Cox,Richard Betts,Laurent Bopp,W. von Bloh,Victor Brovkin,Patricia Cadule,Scott C. Doney,Michael Eby,Inez Fung,Govindasamy Bala,Jasmin John,Chris D. Jones,Fortunat Joos,Tomomichi Kato,Michio Kawamiya,Wolfgang Knorr,Keith Lindsay,H. D. Matthews,H. D. Matthews,Thomas Raddatz,Peter Rayner,Christian Reick,Erich Roeckner,K.-G. Schnitzler,Reiner Schnur,K. M. Strassmann,Andrew J. Weaver,Chisato Yoshikawa,Ning Zeng +29 more
TL;DR: In this article, eleven coupled climate-carbon cycle models were used to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. But, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities.
Journal ArticleDOI
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
Malte Meinshausen,Nicolai Meinshausen,William Hare,Sarah C. B. Raper,Katja Frieler,Reto Knutti,David J. Frame,Myles R. Allen +7 more
TL;DR: A comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints is provided.
Book Chapter
Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
Matthew Collins,R. Knutti,Julie M. Arblaster,J.-L. Dufresne,T. Fichefet,P. Friedlingstein,Xuejie Gao,William J. Gutowski,T. Johns,Gerhard Krinner,Mxolisi Shongwe,C. Tebaldi,A.J. Weaver,M. F. Wehner +13 more
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions
Ed Hawkins,Rowan Sutton +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, a suite of climate models are used to predict changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, and it is shown that the uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by model uncertainty and internal variability that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Structure of the Potassium Channel: Molecular Basis of K+ Conduction and Selectivity
Declan A. Doyle,João H.Morais Cabral,Richard A. Pfuetzner,Anling Kuo,Jacqueline M. Gulbis,Steven L. Cohen,Brian T. Chait,Roderick MacKinnon +7 more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Water conduction through the hydrophobic channel of a carbon nanotube
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Journal ArticleDOI
The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments
C. Gordon,C. Cooper,Catherine A. Senior,Helene T. Banks,Jonathan M. Gregory,T. C. Johns,John F. B. Mitchell,Richard Wood +7 more
TL;DR: A new version of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) that does not require flux adjustments to prevent large climate drifts in the simulation is presented in this article.
Journal ArticleDOI
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle
Myles R. Allen,William Ingram +1 more
TL;DR: It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.
Journal ArticleDOI
A field guide to foldamers.
TL;DR: I. Foldamer Research 3910 A. Backbones Utilizing Bipyridine Segments 3944 1.
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