Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools
Trystan Leng,Edward M. Hill,Alexander Holmes,Emma Southall,Robin N Thompson,Michael J. Tildesley,Matthew James Keeling,Louise Dyson +7 more
TLDR
In this paper , a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection was used to quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures.Abstract:
A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021. We find that the pupil-to-pupil reproduction number, Rschool, has remained below 1 on average across the study period, and that twice weekly mass testing using LFTs has helped to control pupil-to-pupil transmission. We also explore the potential benefits of alternative containment strategies, finding that a strategy of repeat testing of close contacts rather than isolation, alongside mass testing, substantially reduces absences with only a marginal increase in pupil-to-pupil transmission. read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England against SARS-CoV-2
Matthew James Keeling,S Moore +1 more
TL;DR: In this article , the authors considered the potential impact of vaccinating 12-17 and 5-11-year-olds in the control of SARS-CoV-2 in England.
Journal ArticleDOI
Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies
TL;DR: In this article , the authors investigate the impact of different testing strategies on the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in a primary school environment, using an individual-based modelling approach.
Posted ContentDOI
Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies
Andrea Torneri,Lander Willem,Vittoria Colizza,Cécile Kremer,Christelle Meuris,Gilles Darcis,Niel Hens,Pieter Jk Libin +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the impact of different testing strategies on the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in a primary school environment, using an individual-based modelling approach.
Journal ArticleDOI
A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic
Joe Hilton,Heather Riley,Lorenzo Pellis,Rabia Aziza,Samuel Brand,Ivy K. Kombe,John Ojal,Andrea Parisi,Matthew James Keeling,D. James Nokes,R. Manson-Sawko,Thomas House +11 more
TL;DR: This model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which it provides an open-source Python implementation and demonstrates that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential
Carl A. Whitfield,Ian Hall +1 more
TL;DR: In this article , the authors developed a model based on data available in the literature to predict the potential impact of repeat asymptomatic testing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19.
Xi He,Eric H. Y. Lau,Peng Wu,Xilong Deng,Jian Wang,Xinxin Hao,Yiu Chung Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Yujuan Guan,Xinghua Tan,Xiaoneng Mo,Yanqing Chen,Baolin Liao,Weilie Chen,Fengyu Hu,Qing Zhang,Mingqiu Zhong,Yanrong Wu,Lingzhai Zhao,Fuchun Zhang,Benjamin J. Cowling,Fang Li,Gabriel M. Leung +22 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home.
Journal ArticleDOI
Systematic review of COVID-19 in children shows milder cases and a better prognosis than adults.
TL;DR: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has affected hundreds of thousands of people and data on symptoms and prognosis in children are rare.
Journal ArticleDOI
Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems
TL;DR: This paper discusses and applies an ABC method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to estimate parameters of dynamical models and develops ABC SMC as a tool for model selection; given a range of different mathematical descriptions, it is able to choose the best model using the standard Bayesian model selection apparatus.
Journal ArticleDOI
Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening.
Daniel B. Larremore,Bryan Wilder,Evan Lester,Evan Lester,Soraya Shehata,Soraya Shehata,James M. Burke,James A. Hay,Milind Tambe,Michael J. Mina,Michael J. Mina,Roy Parker +11 more
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and speed of reporting and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity, and should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time.
Journal ArticleDOI
A high-resolution human contact network for infectious disease transmission
Marcel Salathé,Maria A. Kazandjieva,Jung Woo Lee,Philip Levis,Marcus W. Feldman,James Holland Jones +5 more
TL;DR: High-resolution data of CPIs during a typical day at an American high school is obtained, permitting the reconstruction of the social network relevant for infectious disease transmission and suggested that contact network data are required to design strategies that are significantly more effective than random immunization.