Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades

TLDR: In this paper, the performance of 26 general circulation models (GCMs) available in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by comparison with the observations during 1961-2005.

Abstract: On the basis of mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from the updated China Homogenized Historical Temperature Data Sets, the recent warming in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1961–2005 and global warming hiatus period are examined. During 1961–2005, the mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in the whole TP show a statistically increasing trend especially after the 1980s, with the annual rates of 0.27, 0.19 and 0.36 °C decade−1, respectively. The performance of 26 general circulation models (GCMs) available in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated in the TP by comparison with the observations during 1961–2005. Most CMIP5 GCMs can capture the decadal variations of the observed mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, and have significant positive correlations with observations (R > 0.5), with root mean squared error <1 °C. This suggests that CMIP5 GCMs can reproduce the recent temperature evolution in the TP, but with cold biases. However, most CMIP5 GCMs underestimate the observed warming rates, especially the CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-H and MRI-CGCM3 models. There are significant positive correlations between the trend magnitudes and the anomaly of the mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, with correlations of 0.85, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively. The warming from the observations and CMIP5 mean in the TP is significant during the global hiatus period, consistent with decreasing snow cover and albedo in the region. This study suggests that positive snow/ice-albedo feedback processes may account for ongoing surface warming in the TP despite the pause in global mean surface warming.