Journal ArticleDOI
When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures
Andreas Sterl,Camiel Severijns,Henk A. Dijkstra,Wilco Hazeleger,Geert Jan van Oldenborgh,Michiel R. van den Broeke,Gerrit Burgers,Bart van den Hurk,Bart van den Hurk,Peter Jan van Leeuwen,Peter van Velthoven +10 more
TLDR
In this paper, a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model.Abstract:
[1] In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Craig D. Allen,Alison K. Macalady,Haroun Chenchouni,Dominique Bachelet,Nate G. McDowell,Michel Vennetier,Thomas Kitzberger,Andreas Rigling,David D. Breshears,Edward H. Hogg,Patrick Gonzalez,Rod Fensham,Zhen Zhang,Jorge Castro,N.A. Demidova,Jong Hwan Lim,Gillian Allard,Steven W. Running,Akkin Semerci,Neil S. Cobb +19 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress and identify key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system.
Book Chapter
Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
Matthew Collins,R. Knutti,Julie M. Arblaster,J.-L. Dufresne,T. Fichefet,P. Friedlingstein,Xuejie Gao,William J. Gutowski,T. Johns,Gerhard Krinner,Mxolisi Shongwe,C. Tebaldi,A.J. Weaver,M. F. Wehner +13 more
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Journal ArticleDOI
Managing the health effects of climate change
Anthony Costello,Mustafa Abbas,Adriana Allen,Sarah C. Ball,Sarah Bell,Richard Bellamy,Sharon Friel,Nora Groce,Anne M Johnson,Maria Kett,Maria Lee,C Levy,Mark A. Maslin,David McCoy,Bill McGuire,Hugh Montgomery,David Napier,Christina Pagel,Jinesh Patel,Jose A. Puppim de Oliveira,Nanneke Redclift,Hannah Rees,Daniel Rogger,Joanne Scott,Judith Stephenson,John Twigg,Jonathan Wolff,Craig Patterson +27 more
TL;DR: Although vector-borne diseases will expand their reach and death tolls, especially among elderly people, will increase because of heatwaves, the indirect effects of climate change on water, food security, and extreme climatic events are likely to have the biggest effect on global health.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global risk of deadly heat
Camilo Mora,B. Dousset,Iain R. Caldwell,Farrah E. Powell,Rollan C. Geronimo,Coral R. Bielecki,Chelsie W. W. Counsell,Bonnie S. Dietrich,Emily T. Johnston,Leo V. Louis,Matthew P. Lucas,Marie M. McKenzie,Alessandra G. Shea,Han Tseng,Thomas W. Giambelluca,Lisa R. Leon,Ed Hawkins,Clay Trauernicht +17 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly conditions worldwide.
Journal ArticleDOI
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
TL;DR: This article showed that the uncertainties associated with the projection of climate extremes are mainly due to internal climate variability and that model projections are consistent when averaged across regions, allowing robust projection of future extremes.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers:
Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
S. Uppala,Per Kållberg,Adrian Simmons,U. Andrae,V. da Costa Bechtold,M. Fiorino,J. K. Gibson,J. Haseler,A. Hernandez,Graeme Kelly,Xiaoming Li,Kazutoshi Onogi,Sami Saarinen,N. Sokka,Richard P. Allan,Richard P. Allan,Erik Andersson,Klaus Arpe,Magdalena Balmaseda,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,S. Caires,Frédéric Chevallier,A. Dethof,M. Dragosavac,Michael Fisher,Manuel Fuentes,Stefan Hagemann,Elías Hólm,Brian J. Hoskins,Lars Isaksen,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Roy L. Jenne,A. P. McNally,Jean-François Mahfouf,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,Nick Rayner,Roger Saunders,P. Simon,Andreas Sterl,Kevin E. Trenberth,A. Untch,Drasko Vasiljevic,Pedro Viterbo,John S. Woollen +46 more
TL;DR: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions as mentioned in this paper.
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