Showing papers on "Surprise published in 2013"

Neural representations of events arise from temporal community structure

Abstract: Our experience of the world seems to divide naturally into discrete, temporally extended events, yet the mechanisms underlying the learning and identification of events are poorly understood. Research on event perception has focused on transient elevations in predictive uncertainty or surprise as the primary signal driving event segmentation. We present human behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) evidence in favor of a different account, in which event representations coalesce around clusters or 'communities' of mutually predicting stimuli. Through parsing behavior, fMRI adaptation and multivoxel pattern analysis, we demonstrate the emergence of event representations in a domain containing such community structure, but in which transition probabilities (the basis of uncertainty and surprise) are uniform. We present a computational account of how the relevant representations might arise, proposing a direct connection between event learning and the learning of semantic categories.

The role of tourists' emotional experiences and satisfaction in understanding behavioral intentions

Abstract: Modeling behavioral intentions remain an important area of research in tourism. This study empirically tests a model linking tourists' emotional experiences, satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The model proposes that satisfaction mediates the relationship between tourists' emotional experiences and behavioral intentions. Data were collected from international tourists visiting Petra, a UNESCO world heritage site. Contrary to theoretical predictions, results do not support the mediating effect of satisfaction on the relationship between emotions (joy, love, positive surprise, and unpleasantness) and behavioral intentions. Findings offer important strategic marketing implications for Petra in relation to branding and managing destination experiences.

Dissociable effects of surprise and model update in parietal and anterior cingulate cortex

Abstract: Brains use predictive models to facilitate the processing of expected stimuli or planned actions. Under a predictive model, surprising (low probability) stimuli or actions necessitate the immediate reallocation of processing resources, but they can also signal the need to update the underlying predictive model to reflect changes in the environment. Surprise and updating are often correlated in experimental paradigms but are, in fact, distinct constructs that can be formally defined as the Shannon information (IS) and Kullback-Leibler divergence (DKL) associated with an observation. In a saccadic planning task, we observed that distinct behaviors and brain regions are associated with surprise/IS and updating/DKL. Although surprise/IS was associated with behavioral reprogramming as indexed by slower reaction times, as well as with activity in the posterior parietal cortex [human lateral intraparietal area (LIP)], the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was specifically activated during updating of the predictive model (DKL). A second saccade-sensitive region in the inferior posterior parietal cortex (human 7a), which has connections to both LIP and ACC, was activated by surprise and modulated by updating. Pupillometry revealed a further dissociation between surprise and updating with an early positive effect of surprise and late negative effect of updating on pupil area. These results give a computational account of the roles of the ACC and two parietal saccade regions, LIP and 7a, by which their involvement in diverse tasks can be understood mechanistically. The dissociation of functional roles between regions within the reorienting/reprogramming network may also inform models of neurological phenomena, such as extinction and Balint syndrome, and neglect.

Novelty or surprise

Abstract: Novelty and surprise play significant roles in animal behavior and in attempts to understand the neural mechanisms underlying it. They also play important roles in technology, where detecting observations that are novel or surprising is central to many applications, such as medical diagnosis, text processing, surveillance, and security. Theories of motivation, particularly of intrinsic motivation, place novelty and surprise among the primary factors that arouse interest, motivate exploratory or avoidance behavior, and drive learning. In many of these studies, novelty and surprise are not distinguished from one another: the words are used more-or-less interchangeably. However, while undeniably closely related, novelty and surprise are very different. The purpose of this article is first to highlight the differences between novelty and surprise and to discuss how they are related by presenting an extensive review of mathematical and computational proposals related to them, and then to explore the implications of this for understanding behavioral and neuroscience data. We argue that opportunities for improved understanding of behavior and its neural basis are likely being missed by failing to distinguish between novelty and surprise.

Animal learning and cognition : an introduction

Abstract: The Study of Animal Cognition. Associative Learning. The Conditions for Learning - Surprise and Attention. Instrumental Conditioning. Discrimination Learning. Memory. The Representation of Time, Number and Order. Navigation. Social Learning. Communication and Language. The Distribution of Intelligence.

Exploration, novelty, surprise, and free energy minimization

Abstract: This paper reviews recent developments under the free energy principle that introduce a normative perspective on classical economic (utilitarian) decision-making based on (active) Bayesian inference. It has been suggested that the free energy principle precludes novelty and complexity, because it assumes that biological systems – like ourselves - try to minimise the long-term average of surprise to maintain their homeostasis. However, recent formulations show that minimising surprise leads naturally to concepts such as exploration and novelty bonuses. In this approach, agents infer a policy that minimises surprise by minimising the difference (or relative entropy) between likely and desired outcomes, which involves both pursuing the goal-state that has the highest expected utility (often termed ‘exploitation’) and visiting a number of different goal-states (‘exploration’). Crucially, the opportunity to visit new states increases the value of the current state. Casting decision-making problems within a variational framework, therefore, predicts that our behaviour is governed by both the entropy and expected utility of future states. This dissolves any dialectic between minimising surprise and exploration or novelty seeking.

On the valence of surprise

Abstract: While surprise is a common emotion in everyday life, some of its fundamental characteristics are still unclear. For example, what does surprise feel like, positive or negative? The emotion literature has been somewhat unclear about the experiential valence of surprise. Surprise has been depicted as a pre-affective state, or as an emotion that can be both positive and negative, depending on the goal conduciveness of the surprising event. Based on recent work on cognitive consistency and neuroscientific/psychophysiological studies on surprise, we explored the possibility that surprise may be a (mildly) negative emotion in a study of autobiographical recall of unexpected and surprising events (Experiment 1) and in two studies of facial expressions of surprise (Experiments 2 and 3a/b). The studies show that experience of surprise and the perception of surprise in others may indeed be initially negative. We furthermore show how linguistic features of surprise and the temporal dynamics may have contributed to previous confusion regarding its valence.

Indigenous and Authentic: Hawaiian Epistemology and the Triangulation of Meaning

Abstract: In this chapter, Manulani Aluli-Meyer propounds “the triangulation of meaning” or “holographic epistemology” as an indigenous Hawaiian way of knowing while challenging the dominant research worldview based on the Newtonian notion of space. For Aluli-Meyer, the triangulation of meaning (i.e., the integration of the body, the mind, and the spirit) recognizes (1) the significance of spirituality in knowing, (2) a deep relationship with space as it feeds us and shapes our consciousness, (3) a reliance on our uniquely experienced cultural nature of the senses to expand our idea of empiricism, (4) the primacy of human relationships because knowledge is a product of interaction and dialogue with others, (5) the purposefulness of knowing, namely, to heal, to bring together, to challenge, to surprise, to encourage, or to expand our awareness, (6) a critical self-reflection with a keen awareness of the consequences of language, and (7) the wholeness or the union of the body and the mind in engaging with deeper reality. Like Sarah Amira de la Garza (Chapter 10), Aluli-Meyer calls attention to the spiritual dimension of knowing and the unbreakable relationship between humans and nature (land, space, etc.), which are often absent in Eurocentric research methodologies.

Surprise maximization reveals the community structure of complex networks

Abstract: How to determine the community structure of complex networks is an open question. It is critical to establish the best strategies for community detection in networks of unknown structure. Here, using standard synthetic benchmarks, we show that none of the algorithms hitherto developed for community structure characterization perform optimally. Significantly, evaluating the results according to their modularity, the most popular measure of the quality of a partition, systematically provides mistaken solutions. However, a novel quality function, called Surprise, can be used to elucidate which is the optimal division into communities. Consequently, we show that the best strategy to find the community structure of all the networks examined involves choosing among the solutions provided by multiple algorithms the one with the highest Surprise value. We conclude that Surprise maximization precisely reveals the community structure of complex networks.

The structures of uncertainty: performativity and unpredictability in economic operations

Abstract: The paper reflects on the presuppositions and consequences of the concept of performativity (understood as the involvement of the observer in the objects and projects he/she describes). The paper proposes a broader notion of performativity, one that not only concerns theory but is also extended to the entire economy, which observes itself in all of its operations. This conception has the advantage of being connected with critical approaches inside economics, which highlight the central role of uncertainty and surprise. It can explain how and why performativity turns into counter-performativity and how financial operators exploit uncertainty when orienting their behaviour, expecting and using the unpredictability of the future.

The Arab Spring and its Surprises

Abstract: The occurrence, speed and spread of the ‘Arab revolutions’ took almost everyone by surprise, including the protagonists. But the real surprise lies, this essay suggests, not in how or why these revolutions came to fruition; it rather lies in revolutions’ particular attributes — their ideological orientations and political trajectories. The essay discusses the revolutions’ key (unexpected) characteristics, arguing that the Arab uprisings occurred in new ideological times.

An Evolutionary Approach to Emotional Communication

Abstract: The study of pragmatics is typically concerned with ostensive communication (especially through language), in which we not only provide evidence for our intended speaker meaning, but also make manifest our intention to do so. This is not, however, the only way in which humans communicate. We also communicate in many non-ostensive ways, and these expressions often interplay with and complement ostensive communication. For example, fear, embarrassment, surprise and other emotions are often expressed with linguistic expressions, which they complement through changes in prosodic cues, facial and bodily muscular configuration, pupil dilatation and skin colouration, among others. However, some basic but important questions about non-ostensive communication, in particular those concerned with evolutionary stability, are unaddressed. Our objective is to address, albeit tentatively, this issue, focusing our discussion on one particular class of non-ostensive communication: emotional expressions. We argue that existing solutions to the problem of stability of emotional communication are problematic and we suggest introducing a new class of mechanisms -- mechanisms of emotional vigilance -- that, we think, more adequately accounts for the stability of emotional communication.

Emotive ontology: extracting fine-grained emotions from terse, informal messages

Abstract: With the uptake of social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, there is now a vast amount of new user generated content on a daily basis, much of it in the form of short, informal free-form text. Businesses, institutions, governments and law enforcement organisations are now actively seeking ways to monitor and more generally analyse public response to various events, products and services. Our primary aim in this project was the development of an approach for capturing a wide and comprehensive range of emotions from sparse, text based messages in social-media, such as Twitter, to help monitor emotional responses to events. Prior work has focused mostly on negative / positive sentiment classification tasks, and although numerous approaches employ highly elaborate and effective techniques with some success, the sentiment or emotion granularity is generally limiting and arguably not always most appropriate for real-world problems. In this paper we employ an ontology engineering approach to the problem of fine-grained emotion detection in sparse messages. Messages are also processed using a custom NLP pipeline, which is appropriate for the sparse and informal nature of text encountered on micro-blogs. Our approach detects a range of eight high-level emotions; anger, confusion, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, shame and surprise. We report f-measures (recall and precision) and compare our approach to two related approaches from recent literature. © 2013 IADIS.

How Are Curious People Viewed and How Do They Behave in Social Situations? From the Perspectives of Self, Friends, Parents, and Unacquainted Observers

Abstract: Curiosity is the predisposition to recognize and search for new knowledge and experiences (Berlyne, 1960; Izard, 1977; Spielberger & Starr, 1994; Tomkins, 1962). The psychological urge evoked by curiosity is accompanied by increased engagement with the world including exploratory behavior, meaning-making, and learning (Day, 1971; Kashdan & Steger, 2007; Panksepp, 2011). For decades, scientists have narrowly focused on how curiosity is relevant to achievement in school, work, and sports, and an appreciation of art (Silvia, 2006; Spielberger & Starr, 1994). Curiosity is neither an intrapersonal or interpersonal process by nature; it is relevant to any context where there is the potential for novelty, uncertainty, complexity, surprise, and conflict between the urges to approach or avoid stimuli (Berylne, 1960, 1967, 1971). Several scientists have argued that a family of individual difference variables that conceptually overlap with curiosity (i.e., novelty seeking, uncertainty orientation, need for structure, need for closure, need for cognition, openness to experience) are relevant to healthy social interactions and relationships (Kashdan & Fincham, 2004; McCrae, 1996; McCrae & Sutin, 2009). The present research extends this work about the relevance of curiosity to social functioning. Curious people are proposed to engage in behaviors that are particularly relevant for increasing the likelihood of positive social outcomes and healthy social relationships. To understand the potential benefits of being a curious person, consider how curiosity is activated. Bottom-up curiosity is driven by immediate experience and a history of reinforcement for exploratory behavior (Loewenstein, 1994). A novel, complex, unexpected, or uncertain event results in a sense of wonder and a desire to explore it. For instance, upon hearing a scratching sound against the bedroom window of a high-rise apartment building, a person turns to notice a Koala bear. Activated by novel stimulation in an unusual context, few individuals have to be prodded to feel a sense of wonder; the experience of curiosity is often rapid and reflexive (e.g., Litman, 2005; Silvia, 2001). What is often forgotten, especially when the scope of the analysis extends to social situations, is that curiosity can also be wielded intentionally in a top-down manner. Top-down curiosity involves the intentional search for novel and/or challenging stimuli. For instance, when meeting a new person, instead of asking uninspiring questions about their occupation or other mundane facts, one might ask for opinions on topics without expecting or pursuing any specific answer (e.g., what would you do if you were driving on an empty highway and passed an unburied, dead body?). This self-initiated search for novelty is part of a larger behavioral pattern that is reinforced by engagement in the search itself (Sansone & Thoman, 2005; Wilson & DuFrene, 2009). Although we are unaware of studies that have examined how curious people are viewed by partners interacting with them on multiple occasions (e.g., friends, parents), we suggest that the two different routes leading to curious exploration will account for a diverse range of social behavior. A common theme in discussing the relevance of curiosity to the social world is the management of anxious thoughts and feelings. Whether people are taking advantage of the growth potential of exploring interesting stimuli (top-down curiosity) or intentionally discovering and creating interesting situations (bottom-up curiosity), tension is experienced. Any model of curiosity has to explain why different people experience the same event differently. A “funny” story told at a party will cause some audience members to laugh, others to feel anxious, and others to reach for their smartphones out of boredom. An appraisal model offers a useful understanding of when curiosity is generated (momentary state) and the cognitive underpinnings of dispositional or trait curiosity. According to Silvia (2006), people respond to the environment with two automatic, rapid cognitive judgments (or appraisals). First, can the target of attention be described as novel, complex, or challenging (growth potential)? Second, can this novel, complex, or challenging object be managed (coping potential)? Curiosity will only arise if a person believes that there is new information to be acquired and sufficient belief that the search for this information is manageable. The likelihood of these appraisals appears to account for individual differences in trait curiosity. Curious people have been shown to be more likely to uncover novelty in their environment (novelty potential) and when they do, report greater confidence that they can handle unwanted emotions and thoughts elicited by these events (coping potential) (Silvia, 2006, 2008; Silvia, Henson, & Templin, 2009; Spielberger & Starr, 1994). An appraisal model has been useful in explaining why curious people are more likely to visually explore complex polygons, disturbing art, cognitively challenging books, unusual movies, and abstract poetry (Connelly, 2011; Silvia, 2005, 2006; Silvia & Berg, 2011; Turner & Silvia, 2006). Starting with distress tolerance, an appraisal perspective offers insight into the diversity of social behaviors that might be linked to curiosity. Tension is experienced when experiences are encountered that are inconsistent with existing conceptual frameworks about the self, other people, and the world (Loevinger, 1976; Piaget, 1952). Researchers have provided preliminary evidence that when novel stimuli are confronted (bottom-up) or purposely sought (top-down), curious people show less defensive reactions (Kashdan, Afram, Brown, Birnbeck, & Drvoshanov, 2011; Kashdan, DeWall, et al., 2011). Although novel or challenging social interactions often leave less curious individuals mentally exhausted, curious people believe they can cope and therefore are more energized prior to, during, and after social situations (Silvia, 2005: Silvia, 2008; Thoman, Smith, & Silvia, 2011). The flexibility of curious people offers a critical link to the social contexts that they chose, and the social behavior they enact in them. Curious people are psychologically flexible in that they are adept at committing effort toward interesting and deeply cherished goals despite the presence of pain/distress/tension (Kashdan & Rottenberg, 2010; Silvia, 2008). The cognitive flexibility inherent to curious people is best illustrated by their preference for: growth over safety, complexity over simplicity, autonomy over obedience and rules, and openness over closure (Litman, 2005; Roberts & Robins, 2000; Vitterso, Soholt, Hetland, Thoresen, & Roysamb, 2010). Because of their preference for new information (Loewenstein, 1994), curious people are less likely to prematurely commit to initial ideas and perspectives (Kruglanski & Webster, 1996). In fact, there is evidence that the need for structure and cognitive closure are not only inversely related to curiosity (Litman, 2010), but reside at the other end of the continuum (Mussel, 2010).

A perspective-based simulation game to explore future pathways of an interacting water-society system

Abstract: In this article, the authors address the challenge of including societal responses, society-environment interactions, discontinuity, and surprise in environmental scenario analysis. They do so through developing and testing a perspective-based simulation game for a typical Dutch river stretch. Concepts deriving from Cultural Theory, the Advocacy Coalition Framework, and Transition Theory provide the input for the game design. Players take on the role of water managers, responding to events and developments in the water-society system under specific realizations of a climate scenario. Responses include the choice for specific river management options, changing coalition perspectives, and changes in advocacy coalition membership. A pilot case study shows that the simulation game is a useful tool to explore possible future river management dynamics. It generates relevant insights in the water management strategies that may be chosen under future conditions, the possible drivers underlying future societal perspective change, and the way advocacy coalitions may interact. As such, the simulation game offers great potential for developing and assessing policy relevant climate adaptation pathways, in which water-society interaction, discontinuity, and surprise is taken explicitly into account. The main challenges for future research include reducing game complexity, better representing changes in the advocacy coalitions' strengths, and exploring more fundamental societal perspective shifts

Cognitive aging explains age-related differences in face-based recognition of basic emotions except for anger and disgust

Abstract: This study aimed at a detailed understanding of the possible dissociable influences of cognitive aging on the recognition of facial expressions of basic emotions (happiness, surprise, fear, anger, ...

Evolution of the Global Jihad: Female Suicide Bombers in Iraq

Abstract: Female suicide bombers are increasingly seen in conflicts throughout the world; in recent years, they have become much more prevalent in religious-fundamentalist conflict. Specifically, global jihadist groups are increasingly incorporating female suicide bombers into their operations, a significant ideological and operational shift for most of these groups. Jihadist groups are using women to fill a recruiting void, to achieve tactical surprise, and for strategic purposes. Female suicide bombers are likely to emerge in jihadist conflicts throughout the world, from Nigeria to Pakistan and beyond.

Risk Aversion and Emotions

Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries. We then correlate these facial expressions with subsequent decisions in risky choice tasks. We find that the valence of one’s emotional state is negatively correlated, and the strength of a number of emotions: fear, happiness, anger, and surprise, is positively correlated, with risk-averse decisions.

Neural responses to ambiguity involve domain-general and domain-specific emotion processing systems

Abstract: Extant research has examined the process of decision making under uncertainty, specifically in situations of ambiguity. However, much of this work has been conducted in the context of semantic and low-level visual processing. An open question is whether ambiguity in social signals e.g., emotional facial expressions is processed similarly or whether a unique set of processors come on-line to resolve ambiguity in a social context. Our work has examined ambiguity using surprised facial expressions, as they have predicted both positive and negative outcomes in the past. Specifically, whereas some people tended to interpret surprise as negatively valenced, others tended toward a more positive interpretation. Here, we examined neural responses to social ambiguity using faces surprise and nonface emotional scenes International Affective Picture System. Moreover, we examined whether these effects are specific to ambiguity resolution i.e., judgments about the ambiguity or whether similar effects would be demonstrated for incidental judgments e.g., nonvalence judgments about ambiguously valenced stimuli. We found that a distinct task control i.e., cingulo-opercular network was more active when resolving ambiguity. We also found that activity in the ventral amygdala was greater to faces and scenes that were rated explicitly along the dimension of valence, consistent with findings that the ventral amygdala tracks valence. Taken together, there is a complex neural architecture that supports decision making in the presence of ambiguity: a a core set of cortical structures engaged for explicit ambiguity processing across stimulus boundaries and b other dedicated circuits for biologically relevant learning situations involving faces.

Does a surprise strategy need words? The effect of explanations for a surprise strategy on customer delight and expectations

Abstract: Purpose – Delighting customers by pleasant surprises is a common strategy, yet the potential downside of such a strategy (i.e. raising customer expectations) has received scant attention. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of explanations as a solution to control customers ' expectations following a surprise-delight event. Design/methodology/approach – Hypotheses were tested with a 2 (surprise)×2 (explanation) between-subjects experimental design in two different service contexts (utilitarian and hedonic). University staff and faculty members served as the participant pool. Findings – The results indicate that providing an explanation helps to avoid raising customer expectations to unsustainable levels and enhances customer delight. Research limitations/implications – Using hypothetical scenarios, single test for each context, and having the participants with high educational and income levels are identified as limitations in this study. Practical implications – This study demonstrates that ...

“The quickening of the unknown”: Epistemologies of surprise in anthropology (The Munro Lecture, 2013)

Abstract: My title is from an essay by Nigerian writer Ben Okri, which I draw on to address one aspect of classic empiricism in anthropology that I have found particularly important, namely the element of surprise, or “impression” (Hume), as an instigator to thought. Quickening is the moment when a being gives evidence of its own life and presence. An epistemology of surprise has been widely and frequently practiced in anthropology, as is illustrated from works across many fields and theoretical orientations. Variations in conventions of instigation and completion are traced back through skeptic and enlightenment practices; linked to artisanal, poetic, and artistic processes within the discipline across its history; compared in the imagery in classic works from Africa and Melanesia; and then explored in the recent “radical empiricism” of Michael Jackson and politically inflected works that focus on fragments, gaps, and absences rather than presences. Examples from my own work on political economic “quickenings”—a baffling confusion of referents for a number term in Cameroon, and an arresting Nigerian complaint that “there’s no money,” in a globally monetized world—conclude the lecture, showing the wide applicability of this mode of reasoning, which traces a genealogy from Hume and Greek skeptical empiricism.

Fearful, surprised, happy, and angry facial expressions modulate gaze-oriented attention: behavioral and ERP evidence.

Abstract: The impact of emotions on gaze-oriented attention was investigated in non-anxious participants. A neutral face cue with straight gaze was presented, which then averted its gaze to the side while remaining neutral or expressing an emotion (fear/surprise in Exp.1 and anger/happiness in Exp.2). Localization of a subsequent target was faster at the gazed-at location (congruent condition) than at the non-gazed-at location (incongruent condition). This Gaze-Orienting Effect (GOE) was enhanced for fear, surprise, and anger, compared to neutral expressions which did not differ from happy expressions. In addition, Event Related Potentials (ERPs) to the target showed a congruency effect on P1 for fear and surprise and a left lateralized congruency effect on P1 for happy faces, suggesting that target visual processing was also influenced by attention to gaze and emotions. Finally, at cue presentation, early postero-lateral (Early Directing Attention Negativity (EDAN)) and later antero-lateral (Anterior Directing Attention Negativity (ADAN)) attention-related ERP components were observed, reflecting, respectively, the shift of attention and its holding at gazed-at locations. These two components were not modulated by emotions. Together, these findings show that the processing of social signals such as gaze and facial expression interact rather late and in a complex manner to modulate spatial attention.

Why the French did not choose to Panic: A Dynamic Analysis of the Public Response to the Influenza Pandemic

Abstract: To understand the French public�s response to the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza health threat a sequence analysis framework has been employed mobilising different theoretical strands such as innovations diffusion theory, surprise theory and social representation theory. These tend to suggest that disease episodes, public health policy and the public�s response should be considered within a larger socio-cognitive frame incorporating representations anchored by prior disease episodes and campaigns. It is suggested in this article that the public�s response was greatly influenced by the pervasive anchoring of the social representations of the pandemic threat to the 1918 Spanish flu in the lay and scientific media. These representations were eventually seen not to match the reality of the disease and consequently the French public did not panic during the 2009 pandemic. This hypothesis has been tested empirically by examining retrospective media, bibliographical data and an analysis of risk perception carried out through three cross-sectional studies prior to and during the pandemic episode and one month after the launch of the vaccination campaign. These findings suggest that alarmist framings of health threats may be counterproductive since they may reduce the capacity of public health organisations to mobilise the public in the case of more serious emerging disease.

Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

Abstract: Introduction: Breaking the First Law of Intelligence Failure 1. Why Does Intelligence Fail, and How Can It Succeed? Part I: The Problem of Conventional Surprise Attack 2. Pearl Harbor: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom3. The Battle of Midway: Explaining Intelligence Success4. Testing the Argument: Classic Cases of Surprise Attack Part II: The Problem of Terrorist Surprise Attack 5. The East Africa Embassy Bombings: Disaster Despite Warning6. New York City: Preventing a Day of Terror7. The 9/11 Attacks: A New Explanation8. Testing the Argument: Why Do Terrorist Plots Fail? Conclusion: Preventing Surprise Attacks Today Appendix: Unsuccessful Plots and Attacks against American Targets, 1987-2012 Notes Bibliography Index

Surprise homecomings and vicarious sacrifices

Abstract: The recent popularity of 'surprise military homecomings' on YouTube offers an opportunity to revisit debates about the role of online spectatorship in performances of citizenship, particularly during times of war. This article argues that these videos position spectatorship as a civic duty and allow for a mediated form of affective participation, which the author refers to as vicarious sacrifice. Language: en

The Role of Surprise: Understanding Overreaction and Underreaction to Unanticipated Events using In-Play Soccer Betting Market

Abstract: Previous research in finance has found evidences of both overreaction and underreaction to unanticipated events, but has yet to explain why investors overreact to certain events while underreacting to others. In this paper, we hypothesize that while market participants generally underreact to new events due to conservatism, the extent of underreaction is moderated by “surprise,” thus causing market participants to overreact to events that are highly surprising. We test our hypothesis using data from an in-play soccer betting market, where new events (goals) are clearly and exogenously defined, and the degree of “surprise” can be directly quantified (goals scored by underdogs are more surprising). We provide both statistical and economic evidences in support of our hypothesis.

Computational Models of Surprise in Evaluating Creative Design

Abstract: In this paper we consider how to evaluate whether a design or other artifact is creative. Creativity and its evaluation have been studied as a social process, a creative arts practice, and as a design process with guidelines for people to judge creativity. However, there are few approaches that seek to evaluate creativity computationally. In prior work we presented novelty, value, and surprise as a set of necessary conditions when identifying creative designs. In this paper we focus on the least studied of these ‐ surprise. Surprise occurs when expectations are violated, suggesting that there is a temporal component when evaluating how surprising an artifact is. This paper presents an approach to quantifying surprise by projecting into the future. We illustrate this approach on a database of automobile designs, and we point out several directions for future research in assessing surprising and creativity generally.

Towards the Design of Affective Survival Horror Games: An Investigation on Player Affect

Abstract: An upcoming trend of affective gaming is where a player's emotional state is used to manipulate game play. This is an interesting field to explore especially for the survival horror genre that is excellent at producing player's intense emotions. In this research, we analyzed different player affective states prior to (i.e., Neutral, Anxiety, Suspense) and after (i.e., Low-Fear, Mid-Fear, High-Fear) a scary event using an affect annotation tool to collect player self-reports of their affective states during the game. Brainwave signals, heart rate and keyboard-mouse activity were also collected for analyzing the potential of automatically detecting horror-related affect. Results indicated that players were more likely to experience fear from a scary event when they were in a suspense state compared to when they were in a neutral state. In this state, players only experienced fear after experiencing surprise. Heart rate data gave the best result in classifying player affect, which achieved up to 90% overall accuracy. This highlights the potential of using player affect in survival horror games to adapt a scary event to evoke more fear from players.