Showing papers on "Thunderstorm published in 2016"

Where Are the Lightning Hotspots on Earth

Abstract: Previous total lightning climatology studies using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) observations were reported at coarse resolution (0.5°) and employed significant spatial and temporal smoothing to account for sampling limitations of TRMM’s tropical to subtropical low-Earth-orbit coverage. The analysis reported here uses a 16-yr reprocessed dataset to create a very high-resolution (0.1°) climatology with no further spatial averaging. This analysis reveals that Earth’s principal lightning hotspot occurs over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela, while the highest flash rate density hotspot previously found at the lower 0.5°-resolution sampling was found in the Congo basin in Africa. Lake Maracaibo’s pattern of convergent windflow (mountain–valley, lake, and sea breezes) occurs over the warm lake waters nearly year-round and contributes to nocturnal thunderstorm development 297 days per year on average. These thunderstorms are very localized, and their persistent deve...

Observations of narrow bipolar events reveal how lightning is initiated in thunderstorms.

Abstract: A long-standing but fundamental question in lightning studies concerns how lightning is initiated inside storms, given the absence of physical conductors. The issue has revolved around the question of whether the discharges are initiated solely by conventional dielectric breakdown or involve relativistic runaway electron processes. Here we report observations of a relatively unknown type of discharge, called fast positive breakdown, that is the cause of high-power discharges known as narrow bipolar events. The breakdown is found to have a wide range of strengths and is the initiating event of numerous lightning discharges. It appears to be purely dielectric in nature and to consist of a system of positive streamers in a locally intense electric field region. It initiates negative breakdown at the starting location of the streamers, which leads to the ensuing flash. The observations show that many or possibly all lightning flashes are initiated by fast positive breakdown.

Thunderstorm-related asthma: what happens and why

Abstract: The fifth report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts that greenhouse gases will increase the global temperature as well as the frequency of extreme weather phenomena. An increasing body of evidence shows the occurrence of severe asthma epidemics during thunderstorms in the pollen season, in various geographical zones. The main hypotheses explaining association between thunderstorms and asthma claim that thunderstorms can concentrate pollen grains at ground level which may then release allergenic particles of respirable size in the atmosphere after their rupture by osmotic shock. During the first 20–30 min of a thunderstorm, patients suffering from pollen allergies may inhale a high concentration of the allergenic material that is dispersed into the atmosphere, which in turn can induce asthmatic reactions, often severe. Subjects without asthma symptoms, but affected by seasonal rhinitis can also experience an asthma attack. All subjects affected by pollen allergy should be alerted to the danger of being outdoors during a thunderstorm in the pollen season, as such events may be an important cause of severe exacerbations. In light of these observations, it is useful to predict thunderstorms and thus minimize thunderstorm-related events.

Lightning NOx and Impacts on Air Quality

Abstract: Lightning generates relatively large but uncertain quantities of nitrogen oxides, critical precursors for ozone and hydroxyl radical (OH), the primary tropospheric oxidants. Lightning nitrogen oxide strongly influences background ozone and OH due to high ozone production efficiencies in the free troposphere, effecting small but non-negligible contributions to surface pollutant concentrations. Lightning globally contributes 3-4 ppbv of simulated annual-mean policy-relevant background (PRB) surface ozone, comprised of local, regional, and hemispheric components, and up to 18 ppbv during individual events. Feedbacks via methane may counter some of these effects on decadal time scales. Lightning contributes approximately 1 percent to annual-mean surface particulate matter, as a direct precursor and by promoting faster oxidation of other precursors. Lightning also ignites wildfires and contributes to nitrogen deposition. Urban pollution influences lightning itself, with implications for regional lightning-nitrogen oxide production and feedbacks on downwind surface pollution. How lightning emissions will change in a warming world remains uncertain.

The European lightning location system EUCLID – Part 2: Observations

Abstract: . Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID) network over the period 2006–2014 are explored. Mean CG flash densities vary over the European continent, with the highest density of about 6 km−2 yr−1 found at the intersection of the borders between Austria, Italy and Slovenia. The majority of lightning activity takes place between May and September, accounting for 85 % of the total observed CG activity. Furthermore, the thunderstorm season reaches its highest activity in July, while the diurnal cycle peaks around 15:00 UTC. A difference between CG flashes over land and sea becomes apparent when looking at the peak current estimates. It is found that flashes with higher peak currents occur in greater proportion over sea than over land.

Lightning Damage to Wind Turbine Blades From Wind Farms in the U.S.

Abstract: This paper presents statistical data about lightning damage on wind turbine blades reported at different wind farms in the U.S. The analysis is based on 304 cases of damage due to direct lightning attachment on the blade surface. This study includes a large variety of blades with different lengths, laminate structure, and lightning protection systems. The statistics consist of the distribution of lightning damage along the blade and classify the damage by severity. In addition, the frequency of lightning damage to more than one blade of a wind turbine after a thunderstorm is assessed. The results of the analysis show that the majority of lightning damage is concentrated at the tip of the blade. Furthermore, all of the blades involved in the study show great similarity in the distribution of damage along the blade and the characteristics of the damages, even concerning the significant differences in the blades' geometry and materials.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

Abstract: Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms and related flash floods in May and June 2016 in Germany – Part 1: Meteorological background

Abstract: . During a 15-day episode from 26 May to 9 June 2016, Germany was affected by an exceptionally large number of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, related flash floods and creek flooding, hail, and tornadoes caused substantial losses running into billions of euros (EUR). This paper analyzes the key features of the severe thunderstorm episode using extreme value statistics, an aggregated precipitation severity index, and two different objective weather-type classification schemes. It is shown that the thunderstorm episode was caused by the interaction of high moisture content, low thermal stability, weak wind speed, and large-scale lifting by surface lows, persisting over almost 2 weeks due to atmospheric blocking. For the long-term assessment of the recent thunderstorm episode, we draw comparisons to a 55-year period (1960–2014) regarding clusters of convective days with variable length (2–15 days) based on precipitation severity, convection-favoring weather patterns, and compound events with low stability and weak flow. It is found that clusters with more than 8 consecutive convective days are very rare. For example, a 10-day cluster with convective weather patterns prevailing during the recent thunderstorm episode has a probability of less than 1 %.

Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

Abstract: Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world’s tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

Intrinsic Predictability of the 20 May 2013 Tornadic Thunderstorm Event in Oklahoma at Storm Scales

Abstract: Using a high-resolution convection-allowing numerical weather prediction model, this study seeks to explore the intrinsic predictability of the severe tornadic thunderstorm event on 20 May 2013 in Oklahoma from its preinitiation environment to initiation, upscale organization, and interaction with other convective storms. This is accomplished through ensemble forecasts perturbed with minute initial condition uncertainties that were beyond detection capabilities of any current observational platforms. It was found that these small perturbations, too small to modify the initial mesoscale environmental instability and moisture fields, will be propagated and evolved via turbulence within the PBL and rapidly amplified in moist convective processes through positive feedbacks associated with updrafts, phase transitions of water species, and cold pools, thus greatly affecting the appearance, organization, and development of thunderstorms. The forecast errors remain nearly unchanged even when the initial p...

Global distribution of winter lightning: a threat to wind turbines and aircraft

Abstract: . Lightning is one of the major threats to multi-megawatt wind turbines and a concern for modern aircraft due to the use of lightweight composite materials. Both wind turbines and aircraft can initiate lightning, and very favorable conditions for lightning initiation occur in winter thunderstorms. Moreover, winter thunderstorms are characterized by a relatively high production of very energetic lightning. This paper reviews the different types of lightning interactions and summarizes the well-known winter thunderstorm areas. Until now comprehensive maps of global distribution of winter lightning prevalence to be used for risk assessment have been unavailable. In this paper we present the global winter lightning activity for a period of 5 years. Using lightning location data and meteorological re-analysis data, six maps are created: annual winter lightning stroke density, seasonal variation of the winter lightning and the annual number of winter thunderstorm days. In the Northern Hemisphere, the maps confirmed Japan to be one of the most active regions but other areas such as the Mediterranean and the USA are active as well. In the Southern Hemisphere, Uruguay and surrounding area, the southwestern Indian Ocean and the Tasman Sea experience the highest activity. The maps provided here can be used in the development of a risk assessment.

Thunderstorms Increase Mercury Wet Deposition.

Abstract: Mercury (Hg) wet deposition, transfer from the atmosphere to Earth’s surface by precipitation, in the United States is highest in locations and seasons with frequent deep convective thunderstorms, but it has never been demonstrated whether the connection is causal or simple coincidence. We use rainwater samples from over 800 individual precipitation events to show that thunderstorms increase Hg concentrations by 50% relative to weak convective or stratiform events of equal precipitation depth. Radar and satellite observations reveal that strong convection reaching the upper troposphere (where high atmospheric concentrations of soluble, oxidized mercury species (Hg(II)) are known to reside) produces the highest Hg concentrations in rain. As a result, precipitation meteorology, especially thunderstorm frequency and total rainfall, explains differences in Hg deposition between study sites located in the eastern United States. Assessing the fate of atmospheric mercury thus requires bridging the scales of glob...

Seasonal, Monthly, and Weekly Distributions of NLDN and GLD360 Cloud-to-Ground Lightning

Abstract: Annual maps of cloud-to-ground lightning flash density have been produced since the deployment of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). However, a comprehensive national summary of seasonal, monthly, and weekly lightning across the contiguous United States has not been developed. Cloud-to-ground lightning is not uniformly distributed in time, space, or frequency. Knowledge of these variations is useful for understanding meteorological processes responsible for lightning occurrence, planning outdoor events, anticipating impacts of lightning on power reliability, and relating to severe weather. To address this gap in documentation of lightning occurrence, the variability on seasonal, monthly, and weekly scales is first addressed with NLDN flash data from 2005 to 2014 for the 48 states and adjacent regions. Flash density and the percentage of each season’s portion of the annual total are compiled. In spring, thunderstorms occur most often over southeastern states. Lightning spreads north a...

An overview of the 29 May 2012 Kingfisher supercell during DC3

Abstract: On 29–30 May 2012, the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry experiment observed a supercell thunderstorm on the southern end of a broken line of severe storms in Oklahoma. This study focuses on an approximately 70 min period during which three mobile Doppler radars operated and a balloon-borne electric field meter, radiosonde, and particle imager flew through the storm. An overview of the relationships among flash rates, very high frequency (VHF) source densities, and Doppler-radar-derived storm parameters is presented. Furthermore, the evolution of the flash distribution relative to the midlevel storm's kinematics and microphysics is examined at two times during a period of rapid storm intensification. The timing of increases in VHF counts in the 8–10 km above ground level (agl) layer, which contained the largest VHF source counts, is similar to the timing of increases in updraft mass flux, in updraft volume, and in graupel volume at approximately 5–9 km agl. Although some increases in VHF source counts had little or no corresponding increase in one or more of the other storm parameters, at least one other parameter had an increase near the time of every VHF increase, a pattern which suggests a common dependence on updraft pulses, as expected from the noninductive graupel-ice electrification mechanism. A classic bounded weak lightning region was observed initially during storm intensification, but late in the period it appeared to be due to a wake in the flow around the updraft, rather than due to a precipitation cascade around the updraft core as is usually observed.

Relativistic-microwave theory of ball lightning

Abstract: Ball lightning, a fireball sometimes observed during lightnings, has remained unexplained. Here we present a comprehensive theory for the phenomenon: At the tip of a lightning stroke reaching the ground, a relativistic electron bunch can be produced, which in turn excites intense microwave radiation. The latter ionizes the local air and the radiation pressure evacuates the resulting plasma, forming a spherical plasma bubble that stably traps the radiation. This mechanism is verified by particle simulations. The many known properties of ball lightning, such as the occurrence site, relation to the lightning channels, appearance in aircraft, its shape, size, sound, spark, spectrum, motion, as well as the resulting injuries and damages, are also explained. Our theory suggests that ball lighting can be created in the laboratory or triggered during thunderstorms. Our results should be useful for lightning protection and aviation safety, as well as stimulate research interest in the relativistic regime of microwave physics.

Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia

Abstract: Increases in extreme record-breaking daily precipitation events have accompanied warming temperatures causing increased flooding in many areas of the World, but are not well documented for arid and semi-arid regions. In semi-arid Mongolia where warming has been over 2o C from 1940 to 2008, nomadic herders described their concerns over an increase in the number of hot days and a shift from multi-day gentle rains to heavy rains lasting less than one hour that damage their pastures, animals, gers and people, suggesting a transition from stratiform rains to convective storms. The brief intense rains are not seen in daily precipitation data typically reported by meteorological stations, and here the correlation between fine-scale rainfall readings and thunderstorm activity were used to hind cast brief heavy rains. From 2008 to 2012, an automated weather station in Dalbay Valley at Lake Hovsgol, Mongolia, recording at 5-min intervals, detected at least 40 heavy sub-daily summer rains each lasting less than 40 min. Heavy rains in Dalbay were correlated with thunderstorm activity and were 2.5 times more likely to occur when thunderstorms were reported within the previous 24 h at the Hatgal meteorological station (80 km to the southwest of Dalbay) than when no thunderstorms were reported. Daily thunderstorm frequency, recorded at nearby meteorological stations from 1960 to 2012, has increased and thus supports herders’ perceptions that the frequency of the short heavy rains have increased.

Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity

Abstract: Different features of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), such as the Loop Current and warm-core rings, are found to influence monthly-to-seasonal severe weather occurrence in different regions of the United States (U.S.). The warmer (cooler) the GOM sea surface temperatures, the more (less) hail and tornadoes occur during March–May over the southern U.S. This pattern is reflected physically in boundary layer specific humidity and mixed-layer convective available potential energy, two large-scale atmospheric conditions favorable for severe weather occurrence. This relationship is complicated by interactions between the GOM and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but persists when analyzing ENSO neutral conditions. This suggests that the GOM can influence hail and tornado occurrence and provides another source of regional predictability for seasonal severe weather.

Convective transport of formaldehyde to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and associated scavenging in thunderstorms over the central United States during the 2012 DC3 study

Abstract: We have developed semi-independent methods for determining CH2O scavenging efficiencies (SEs) during strong midlatitude convection over the western, south-central Great Plains, and southeastern regions of the United States during the 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Study. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) was employed to simulate one DC3 case to provide an independent approach of estimating SEs and the opportunity to study CH2O retention in ice when liquid drops freeze. Measurements of CH2O in storm inflow and outflow were acquired on board the NASA DC-8 and the NSF/National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream V (GV) aircraft employing cross-calibrated infrared absorption spectrometers. This study also relied heavily on the nonreactive tracers i-/n-butane and i-/n-pentane measured on both aircraft in determining lateral entrainment rates during convection as well as their ratios to ensure that inflow and outflow air masses did not have different origins. Of the five storm cases studied, the various tracer measurements showed that the inflow and outflow from four storms were coherently related. The combined average of the various approaches from these storms yield remarkably consistent CH2O scavenging efficiency percentages of: 54% ± 3% for 29 May; 54% ± 6% for 6 June; 58% ± 13% for 11 June; and 41 ± 4% for 22 June. The WRF-Chem SE result of 53% for 29 May was achieved only when assuming complete CH2O degassing from ice. Further analysis indicated that proper selection of corresponding inflow and outflow time segments is more important than the particular mixing model employed.

An analysis of five negative sprite-parent discharges and their associated thunderstorm charge structures

Abstract: In this study we analyze the discharge morphologies of five confirmed negative sprite-parent discharges and the associated charge structures of the thunderstorms that produced them. The negative sprite-parent lightning took place in two thunderstorms that were associated with a tropical disturbance in east central and south Florida. The first thunderstorm, which moved onshore in east central Florida, produced four of the five negative sprite-parent discharges within a period of 17 min, as it made landfall from the Atlantic Ocean. These negative sprite-parents were composed of bolt-from-the-blue (BFB), hybrid intracloud-negative cloud-to-ground (IC-NCG), and multicell IC-NCGs discharges. The second thunderstorm, which occurred inland over south Florida, produced a negative sprite-parent that was a probable hybrid IC-NCG discharge and two negative gigantic jets (GJs). Weakened upper positive charge with very large midlevel negative charge was inferred for both convective cells that initiated the negative-sprite-parent discharges. Our study suggests tall, intense convective systems with high wind shear at the middle to upper regions of the cloud accompanied by low cloud-to-ground (CG) flash rates promote these charge structures. The excess amount of midlevel negative charge results in these CG discharges transferring much more charge to ground than typical negative CG discharges. We find that BFB discharges prefer an asymmetrical charge structure that brings the negative leader exiting the upper positive charge region closer to the lateral positive screening charge layer. This may be the main factor in determining whether a negative leader exiting the upper positive region of the thundercloud forms a BFB or GJ.

Injection of lightning‐produced NOx, water vapor, wildfire emissions, and stratospheric air to the UT/LS as observed from DC3 measurements.

Abstract: During the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment in summer 2012, airborne measurements were performed in the anvil inflow/outflow of thunderstorms over the Central U.S. by three research aircraft. A general overview of Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)-Falcon in situ measurements (CO, O3, SO2, CH4, NO, NOx, and black carbon) is presented. In addition, a joint flight on 29 May 2012 in a convective line of isolated supercell storms over Oklahoma is described based on Falcon, National Science Foundation/National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream-V (NSF/NCAR-GV), and NASA-DC8 trace species in situ and lidar measurements.

The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event: Part 1 - Climatological aspects and hydrometeorological features.

Abstract: In June 2013, excessive rainfall associated with an intense weather system triggered severe flooding in southern Alberta, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This article provides an overview of the climatological aspects and large-scale hydrometeorological features associated with the flooding event based upon information from a variety of sources, including satellite data, upper air soundings, surface observations and operational model analyses. The results show that multiple factors combined to create this unusually severe event. The event was characterized by a slow-moving upper level low pressure system west of Alberta, blocked by an upper level ridge, while an associated well-organized surface low pressure system kept southern Alberta, especially the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, in continuous precipitation for up to two days. Results from air parcel trajectory analysis show that a significant amount of the moisture originated from the central Great Plains, transported into Alberta by a southeasterly low level jet. The event was first dominated by significant thunderstorm activity, and then evolved into continuous precipitation supported by the synoptic-scale low pressure system. Both the thunderstorm activity and upslope winds associated with the low pressure system produced large rainfall amounts. A comparison with previous similar events occurring in the same region suggests that the synoptic-scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularly intense; however, its storm environment was the most convectively unstable. The system also exhibited a relatively high freezing level, which resulted in rain, rather than snow, mainly falling over the still snow-covered mountainous areas. Melting associated with this rain-on-snow scenario likely contributed to downstream flooding. Furthermore, above-normal snowfall in the preceding spring helped to maintain snow in the high-elevation areas, which facilitated the rain-on-snow event.