Showing papers by "Philimon Gona published in 2017"

Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years.

Abstract: BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHOD ...

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Summary Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

Abstract: Importance Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% UI, 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015. Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study

Abstract: Importance: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.Evidence Review: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.Findings: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Abstract: Summary Background An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (−4·1% [−5·0 to −3·4]) than in incidence (−1·6% [−1·9 to −1·2]) and prevalence (−0·7% [−1·0 to −0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes of Reduced GFR

Abstract: The burden of premature death and health loss from ESRD is well described. Less is known regarding the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to reduced GFR. We estimated the prevalence of reduced GFR categories 3, 4, and 5 (not on RRT) for 188 countries at six time points from 1990 to 2013. Relative risks of cardiovascular outcomes by three categories of reduced GFR were calculated by pooled random effects meta-analysis. Results are presented as deaths for outcomes of cardiovascular disease and ESRD and as disability-adjusted life years for outcomes of cardiovascular disease, GFR categories 3, 4, and 5, and ESRD. In 2013, reduced GFR was associated with 4% of deaths worldwide, or 2.2 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 2.0 to 2.4 million). More than half of these attributable deaths were cardiovascular deaths (1.2 million; 95% UI, 1.1 to 1.4 million), whereas 0.96 million (95% UI, 0.81 to 1.0 million) were ESRD-related deaths. Compared with metabolic risk factors, reduced GFR ranked below high systolic BP, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose, and similarly with high total cholesterol as a risk factor for disability-adjusted life years in both developed and developing world regions. In conclusion, by 2013, cardiovascular deaths attributed to reduced GFR outnumbered ESRD deaths throughout the world. Studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of early detection of CKD and treatment to decrease these deaths.

Association of Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Venous Thromboembolism: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

Abstract: Background:Much controversy surrounds the association of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors with venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods:We performed an individual level random-effect me...

Validation of the nonlaboratory-based Framingham cardiovascular disease risk assessment algorithm in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities dataset.

Abstract: Background Nonlaboratory-based (non-LB) algorithms have been developed to facilitate absolute cardiovascular risk assessment in resource-constrained settings. The non-LB Framingham algorithm, which substitute BMI for lipids in laboratory-based Framingham, exhibits best performance among non-LB algorithms. However, its external validity has not been evaluated. Aim To examine the validity of non-LB Framingham algorithm in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities dataset, and contrast performance with the laboratory-based Framingham algorithm. Methods We developed Cox regression models including non-LB and laboratory-based Framingham covariates in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities dataset. Discrimination was assessed via C-statistic, calibration via goodness-of-fit, and marginal discrimination value of BMI vis-a-vis lipids vis-a-vis waist-hip ratio via net reclassification improvement (NRI). Both models were compared via area under receiver operating characteristic. Results Among 11 601 participants (mean age 54 years, 55% women, 23% black), non-LB vs. laboratory-based Framingham performed as follows: C-statistic 0.75 vs. 0.76 among women and 0.67 vs. 0.68 among men; goodness-of-fit 14.2 vs. 10.5 among women and 25.8 vs. 21.8 among men. Overall area under receiver operating characteristic was 0.706 vs. 0.710, respectively, with no racial differences in discrimination or calibration. BMI and total cholesterol had no impact on NRI. Incremental predictive value of HDL was comparable with waist-hip ratio (category-less NRI = 0.34 vs. 0.31; categorical NRI = 0.06 vs. 0.05, P Conclusion These results demonstrate the validity and limitations of the non-LB Framingham algorithm in a biracial cohort. Substituting BMI with a central adiposity metric such as waist-hip ratio or waist circumference could make the algorithm better or at par with the laboratory-based Framingham algorithm.

Impact of Left Ventricular Trabeculations and Papillary Muscles on Mass, Geometry, and Association With Incident Adverse Cardiovascular Events: The Framingham Heart Study

Abstract: Increased left ventricular mass (LVM) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Most prior studies considered only compacted left ventricular mass (CLVM); here we sought to determine whether addition of trabecular and papillary-muscle (TPM) mass to CLVM augments prediction of

Ventricular Structure and Function

Abstract: Background—Cardiac magnetic resonance is uniquely well suited for noninvasive imaging of the right ventricle. We sought to define normal cardiac magnetic resonance reference values and to identify the main determinants of right ventricular (RV) volumes and systolic function using a modern imaging sequence in a community-dwelling, longitudinally followed cohort free of clinical cardiovascular and pulmonary disease. Methods and Results—The Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort has been followed since 1971. We scanned 1794 Offspring cohort members using steady-state free precession cardiac magnetic resonance and identified a reference group of 1336 adults (64±9 years, 576 men) free of prevalent cardiovascular and pulmonary disease. RV trabeculations and papillary muscles were considered cavity volume. Men had greater RV volumes and cardiac output before and after indexation to body size (all P<0.001). Women had higher RV ejection fraction than men (68±6% versus 64±7%; P<0.0001). RV volumes and cardiac output decreased with advancing age. There was an increase in raw and heightindexed RV measurements with increasing body mass index, but this trend was weakly inverted after indexation of RV volumes to body surface area. Sex, age, height, body mass index, and heart rate account for most of the variability in RV volumes and function in this community-dwelling population. Conclusions—We report sex-specific normative values for RV measurements among principally middle-aged and older adults. RV ejection fraction is greater in women. RV volumes increase with body size, are greater in men, and are smaller in older people. Body surface area seems to be appropriate for indexation of cardiac magnetic resonance–derived RV volumes. ( Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. 2016;9:e003810. DOI: 10.1161/CIRCIMAGING.115.003810.)

Multiple Chronic Conditions and General Health in Transgender Individuals in the US

Abstract: Summary: Transgender individuals are a growing marginalized and medically underserved population with unique health concerns. They suffer from multilevel stressors that negatively impact their health outcomes. Our study used a large population-based and representative sample to cross-sectionally describe multiple chronic conditions and general health in transgender individuals in the U.S. Learning Activity: LEARNING OBJECTIVES EXPANDED CONTENT OUTLINE By the end of the presentation, the audience will be able to summarize the health disparities in the transgender community. Transgender individuals are a growing medically underserved population with unique health concerns and needs which are generally not addressed; thus, leading to health disparities. The 2011 Institute of Medicine (IOM) report highlighted the gap in knowledge and scientific research to better understand and act on the health disparities that are grounded on a person’s racial or ethnic group, socioeconomic status (SES), gender, mental health, sexual orientation, and other concerns related to discrimination or exclusion. The Healthy People 2020 also recognized Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender (LGBT) individuals as an at-risk population. The transgender community is marginalized and suffers from multilevel stressors that negatively impact their health outcomes thus creating a health disparity that needs immediate attention. By the end of the presentation the audience will be able to identify the differences in sociodemographic characteristics, general health, and multiple chronic conditions among transgender individuals as compared to nontransgender individuals More transgender individuals reported never being married (22.3% vs. 14.9%) and separated (3.0% vs. 1.9%) whereas fewer transgender individuals were married (46.4% vs. 53.3%) as compared to nontransgender individuals. Also, fewer transgender individuals completed high school (13.4% vs. 6.9%) and graduated from a 4-year college (23.0% vs. 38.8%). Similarly, transgender individuals reported higher rates of unemployment (6.2% vs. 3.9%) and inability to work (11.3% vs. 6.6%) with less likelihood of earning $75,000 or more (24.4% vs. 34.3%). Transgender individuals also had lower prevalence of having health insurance (10.6% vs. 6.5%). Comparing transgender and nontransgender general health rating showed that more nontransgender individuals rated their health as “very good” or “excellent” ( 51.4% vs 42.0%) while more transgender individuals rated their health as “fair” or “poor” (24.2% vs. 17.7%). Diabetes (17.2 % in transgender vs. 13.8% in non-transgender, p=0.007) cardiac disease (11.6% vs. 8.6%, p=0.0042), and stroke (6.4% vs. 4.1%, p=0.002) were significantly more prevalent in transgender individuals. In the opposite direction, the prevalence of cancer (12.7% vs. 17.6%, p=0.0004) was more prevalent in nontransgender individuals. The prevalence of hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, asthma, arthritis and kidney disease were similar. By the end of the presentation, the audience will be able to discuss the differences in sociodemographic characteristics, general health, and multiple chronic conditions within the transgender groups (i.e., male-to-female, female-to-male, and gender nonconforming Examining the differences among the transgender groups, stroke, asthma, cardiac disease was particularly more prevalent in the gender-non-conforming group, whereas cancer and diabetes were more common among MTF transgender individuals. Among the transgender groups, MTF transgender (aOR=1.38, 95%CI: 1.096, 1.739, had greater odds for hypertension. Also, MTF transgender (aOR=1.56 ,95%CI: 1.11-2.19), and gender non-conforming, aOR=2.26, (95%CI: 1.423.62) had greater odds for cardiac disease. On the other hand, MTF transgender had significantly lower odds for asthma (aOR=0.54, 95%CI: 0.37, 0.80). By the end of the presentation, the audience will be able to identify the differences in sociodemographic characteristics and general health among transgender individuals with zero, one, and two or more chronic conditions Nine chronic conditions were examined in this study. There was at least one transgender and nontransgender individual reported each of the nine conditions. Around half the sample reported two or more chronic conditions and only 27% of the sample reported only one chronic condition. There were no differences in the number of unique chronic conditions between transgender and nontransgender individuals. By the end of the presentation, the audience will be able to identify the significance of healthcare providers and future research to understand, examine, and enhance the health of transgender individuals Our study used a large population-based and representative sample to cross-sectionally describe multiple chronic conditions and general health in transgender individuals in the U.S. The findings recognize that transgender individuals have a higher risk of chronic conditions such as diabetes, cardiac disease, and stroke. However, within the transgender community, there are additional layers of differences in the risks and likelihoods of chronic conditions where MTF and gender nonconforming individuals are at a higher risk for chronic conditions such as hypertension, cardiac disease, and asthma. The findings also highlight the increased burden of two or more chronic conditions. These results shed light on the health disparities facing the transgender community and ascertains the need for transgender-specific research and interventions to prevent and manage chronic diseases. These findings pave the way for nurses and other healthcare providers to be cognizant of the unique disease profiles to design and implement studies that prevent and better manage chronic conditions in transgender individuals.